from nymik- cospar. spe estimates from artic ice- core nitrate samples
TRANSCRIPT
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From Nymik- COSPAR
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GCR Deceleration Potential
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
F, M
V
+ + + +- - -
1/1/1950 1/1/1960 1/1/1970 1/1/1980 1/1/1990 1/1/2000 1/1/2010 1/1/2020
F(>
30
MeV
), P
roto
ns/
cm2
108
109
1010F>108 solar protonevents only
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SPE estimates from Artic Ice-Core Nitrate Samples
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Large SPE’s
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GCR and SPE Dose: Materials & Tissue GCR higher energy >> secondary radiation
Shielding Depth, g/cm2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Dos
e E
quiv
alen
t, cS
v/yr
1
10
100
1000
10000
GCR HydrogenGCR PolyethyleneGCR GraphiteGCR AluminumGCR RegolithSPE GraphiteSPE Regolith
Shielding Depth, g/cm2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Dose
Eq
uiv
ale
nt, c
Sv/
yr
1
10
100
1000
GCR HydrogenGCR PolyethyleneGCR GraphiteGCR AluminumGCR RegolithSPE GraphiteSPE RegolithSPE Hydrogen
No Tissue Shielding With Tissue Shielding
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Risk and Uncertainties increase with Linear Energy Transfer (LET)
LET, keV/m
1 10 100 1000
RE
ID(%
) 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Fold uncertainty
Dose = 0.01 Gy
TEPC Data on NASA-MIR 7 (1/21/1998 to 5/28/1998)
y (~LET), keV/m
0.1 1 10 100 1000
F(>
y),
(day
cm
2 )-1
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
GCRTrappedTotal
Dose = Flux x LETBiological Dose H = Dose X Q(L)REID = Risk of exposure induced death = H x R0(sex,age)
95% CL of Risk Model
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Accuracy of Space Radiation Transport Models
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Model vs. Phantom Expt. (STS and ISS)
ISS Increment-2results
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Role of Dose-Rate and Shielding Shielding mitigates most SPE events
High-energy component (>100 MeV) often poorly known Proton biological damage is dependent on dose-rate
Effects increase above ~5 rad/hr
EVA Today (Y/N?)IVA (time to storm shelter)
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Long-Term ForecastingClimax Neutron Monitor and Deceleration Potential (F)
1900
2400
2900
3400
3900
4400
1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Time
Clim
ax
Co
sm
ic R
ay
Mo
nth
ly M
ea
ns
400
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
F,
MV
Measured ClimaxNMEstimated Cli(DR75%)PHI(T)3-month Ave PHI(T)
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Phantom Torso TEPC Trapped + GCR Differential FluxJune 25 - July 3, 2001
Lineal Energy (Tissue, keV/m)
10-1 100 101 102 103 104
Diff
eren
tial F
lux,
Num
ber/
cm2 s
r da
y ke
V/
m
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
100
101
102
103
104
105
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NASA-MIR 7 (1/21/1998 to 5/28/1998)
y, keV/m
0.1 1 10 100 1000
F(>
y), (
day
cm2 )-1
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
GCRTrappedTotal
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1.E-05
1.E-03
1.E-01
1.E+01
1.E+03
1.E+05
1.E+07
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
0" (x100)
5" (x10)
7" (x1)
9" (x0.1)
1.E-05
1.E-03
1.E-01
1.E+01
1.E+03
1.E+05
1.E+07
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
0" (x100)
5" (x10)
7" (x1)
9" (x0.1)
LET vs TEPC
TEPC model Vs TEPC (no TF)
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