from: receptionist, hq sent: wednesday, may 24, 2017 7:21 ... … · from: receptionist, hq sent:...

From: Receptionist, HQ Sent: Wednesday, May 24, 2017 7:21 AM To: Law, Diane (CONTR) <[email protected]> Subject: Parker Davis Project AOP Meeting: Conference Bridge Confirmation

Conference Bridge Information

Purpose: Parker Davis Project AOP Meeting

Number of Participants: 18

Start/End Date and Time: Wednesday, May 31, 2017, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM (MST)

To access conference call dial 1-888-283-2963, when prompted dial your conference code (56373) and then hit the pound sign (#), then press 1. When prompted, say your name and then hit the pound (#) again. If you have any questions or need more lines before conference is in session please call the HQ Operator at 720-962-7000. Please access the conference at the scheduled time to avoid the conference software deleting your call. Also, if you have to break for lunch or anytime longer than 15 minutes, please leave at least one phone dialed into the conference to avoid the call deleting. * *If you need changes to be made to the bridge or if you need to CANCEL, please call the HQ Operator ASAP. Changes and cancelation CAN NOT be made within 30 minutes of the start time* *

Subject, Office or event

ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN PRESENTATION

Parker-Davis Project

Updates For Hydrology &

Annual Operating Plans

May 31, 2017


Agenda

2

• Introduction

• Hydrology Update

• FY 2016 AOP Estimates Presented 5/12/16 & Final FY 2016 Results

• Status of FY 2017 Annual Operating Plan

• Preliminary FY 2018 Annual Operating Plan

• FY 2018 Purchase Power Estimates

.62 MAF

1.81 MAF

26.12 MAF

24.32 MAF

3

Lower Basin Colorado River Management Objectives

• Provide flood control and river regulation

• Meet water demands• Generate hydropower• Enhance and maintain

ecosystem habitat• Recover and protect

endangered species• Provide recreation

4

Water Year Snowpack as of May 25, 2017

5

Snowpack peaked at 126% of median on March 10

43% of total average seasonal accumulation


Hydrology UpdateActual WY 2016 Results &WY 2017 Current Forecast

WY 2016 WY 2017

Lake Powell (maf) % (maf) %

Unreg Inflow (Norm=12.1) 9.6 79% 12.9 107%Apr-Jul Unreg Inflow

(Norm=7.2) 6.6 92% 8.8 123%

Storage (Max=24.3) 12.8 53% 15.7 65%Releases to Lake Mead

(Norm=8.23) 9.0 109% 9.0 109%(ft.) (ft.)

Max Lake Elev. 3620 (Jun) 3642 (Jul)

Min Lake Elev. 3592 (Apr) 3596 (Jan)

Year-End Lake Elev. 3611 3638

6

Lake Powell & Lake MeadOperational Diagrams and Current Conditions

10.19

5/30/17

3,618 13.54

5/30/17

5/30/17 5/30/17

1,082

7

Subject, Office or event 8

1,082 ft10.19 maf (39% of Capacity)

895 ft

Current Lake Mead Conditions1,219.64 ft 26.12 maf

1,145 ft

1,075 ft

16.2 maf

Dead Pool

138 ft

Shortage Conditions

Surplus Conditions

Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions

As of May 30, 2017 10

9.6 maf

860 ft New SNWA Intake

(Presently)

Min Power Pool950 ft

132 ft

2.0 maf

0.0 maf


WY 2016 WY 2017

Lake Mead (maf) % (maf) %

Side Inflow (Norm=1.3) 0.8 61% 1.04 80%

Storage (Max=26.1) 9.6 37% 10.1 39%

Downstream Releases 9.3 -- 8.8 --

(ft.) (ft.)

Max Lake Elev. 1084 (Feb) 1090 (Feb)

Min Lake Elev. 1072 (Jun) 1076 (Oct)

Year-End Lake Elev. 1075 1081

11

Hydrology UpdateActual WY 2016 Results & WY 2017 Current Forecast

Colorado River Basin Storage(as of May 30, 2016)

*Total system storage was 29.21 maf or 49% this time last year

12

ReservoirPercent

FullStorage

(MAF)Elevation

(Feet)

Lake Powell 56% 13.54 3,618

Lake Mead 39% 10.19 1,082

Total System Storage*

52% 31.61 NA

13

Lower Basin Surplus & Shortage through 2026

1 The projections for 2017 are based on 30 simulations of December 31, 2016 conditions from the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM).2 For the period from 2018-2026, each of the 30 projected initial conditions from MTOM were coupled with 107 hydrologic inflow sequences, based on resampling of the observed natural flow record from 1906-2012, for a total of 3,210 traces analyzed in the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Percent of Traces with Lower Basin Surplus or ShortageProjections from the April 2017 MTOM/CRSS Run1,2,3,4

Shortage of Any Amount Surplus of Any Amount


WY 2018 Lower Basin Hydrology Forecast(Based on May 2017 24-month Study)

14

Powell % Mead %

Operating Crit.

1/1/18 Elev (ft)

Upper ElevBalancing

Tier3633.9

Norm / Intent Created Surplus1080.2

Unreg Inflow (maf) 10.9 90 .76 58

Releases (maf) 10.9 132 9.7 --

EOY Storage (maf) 15.3 63 11.2 43

Max Elev (ft) 3643 (jun) 1093 (sep)Min Elev (ft) 3621(apr) 1080 (nov)

EOY Elev (ft) 3634 1093


FY2016 AOP (presented 5/12/16)

Parker - Davis ProjectEstimates GWhActuals GWh

15

+ values represent energy from PDP- values represent energy to PDP

Prior Year

BalanceOCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL

Resources

Parker Generation 32.3 27.1 21.9 22.269 38.103 48.9 48.391 43.39 45.3 43.6 36.3 33.6 441.2

MWD's Parker Share -16 -13.38 -10.84 -9.874 -17.59 -24.45 -24.2 -21.7 -22.65 -21.8 -18.15 -16.8 -217.4

Davis Generation 81.6 72.5 65.1 71.9 86.3 117.9 124.99 116.4 108.4 101.7 89.9 93.5 1130.2

Net Generation 97.9 86.2 76.2 84.3 106.8 142.4 149.2 138.1 131.1 123.5 108.1 110.3 1353.9

Other PDP Credits 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Purchases for PDP 0.9 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.7 5.7 7.6 14.1 21.2 17.1 72.0

Total Resources: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 143.5 150.8 143.8 138.6 137.6 129.2 127.4 1426.9

Loads

Total PDP Firm Load 83.1 79.1 79.0 80.8 74.6 147.4 145.6 149.4 146.1 151.5 150.1 144.3 1431.1

Energy Bank Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PDP / BA Deviation 1.1 0.1 3.3 7.2 3.5 4.1 -3.9 -11.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 0.0

Hoover Bank 3.1 16.0 4.0 -8.6 1.1 28.4 0.0 17.0 -5.3 -7.0 -13.1 -19.7 -15.9 0.0

Total Loads: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 143.5 150.8 143.8 138.6 137.6 129.2 127.4 1426.9



FY2016 AOP Final ResultsParker - Davis Project

16May 31, 2017

PriorYear

BalanceOCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL

Resources

Parker Generation 32.3 27.1 21.9 22.269 38.103 48.9 48.40 45.1 44.8 43.7 40.2 34.7 447.5

MWD's Parker Share -16 -13.38 -10.84 -9.874 -17.59 -23.09 -24 -22.33 -22.17 -21.63 -19.9 -17.17 -218.0

Davis Generation 81.6 72.5 65.1 71.9 86.3 117.9 125.4 115.5 107.4 103.3 91.6 90.5 1129.0

Net Generation 97.9 86.2 76.2 84.3 106.8 143.7 149.8 138.3 130.0 125.4 111.9 108.0 1358.5



Total Resources: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 144.9 151.5 145.5 139.6 139.4 122.8 121.4 1421.0

Loads



Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PDP / BA Deviation 1.1 0.1 3.2 7.2 3.5 4.1 -2.5 -10.9 4.2 6.6 -2.0 -5.6 -9.4 -0.3

Hoover Bank 3.1 16.0 4.0 -8.6 1.1 28.4 0.0 16.6 -8.7 -13.6 -10.7 -22.4 -14.1 -8.6

Total Loads: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 144.9 151.5 145.5 139.6 139.4 122.8 121.4 1421.0

All Values is GWhActual

https://www.wapa.gov/regions/DSW/PowerMarketing/Pages/power-marketing.aspx

TOTAL FY2016 PURCHASE POWER COSTS$3,644,742.93

ENERGY COSTS$2,457,442.53

RESERVES COSTS$1,187,300.40


Status FY2017 AOP

0

50

100

150

200

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepGWh

PDP Net Generation Current Estimate05/12/16 EstimateActual

Current Est. Total Gen 1276.9 GWh05/12/16 Est. Total Gen 1335.5 GWh

17


Current Status FY 2017 AOPEstimates GWhParker - Davis Project

18May 31, 2017


Prior Year

Balance

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL

Resources

Parker Generation 32.8 26 17.9 16.2 27.9 48.8 51.3 42.88 43.45 42.6 37.3 34.6 421.7

MWD's Parker Share -16.22 -12.86 -8.804 -7.193 -13.95 -24.4 -25.65 -21.44 -21.73 -21.3 -18.65 -17.3 -209.5

Davis Generation 79.3 71.1 61.4 54.6 63.8 109.6 131 108.6 101.88 96 92 95.4 1064.7

Net Generation 95.9 84.2 70.5 63.6 77.8 134.0 156.7 130.0 123.6 117.3 110.7 112.7 1276.9



Total Resources: 99.9 85.9 80.8 80.2 80.7 143.5 159.8 145.5 141.4 144.0 141.4 137.4 1440.5

Loads



Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PDP / BA Deviation -0.3 7.0 5.8 13.5 2.8 3.2 -14.4 12.8 -3.7 -4.5 -7.2 -8.4 -6.6 0.0

Hoover Bank -8.6 9.8 0.9 -11.8 -3.4 2.8 10.4 1.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0

Total Loads: 99.9 85.9 80.8 80.2 80.7 143.5 159.8 145.5 141.4 144.0 141.4 137.4 1440.5

Actual GWh




https://www.wapa.gov/regions/DSW/PowerMarketing/Pages/power-marketing.aspx


USBR Generation Projections

0.025.050.075.0

100.0125.0150.0175.0200.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

GW

h

Parker-Davis Generation10-Yr Avg20172018

19

(2017: Actual Oct – Apr)


Preliminary FY 2018 AOP

• No PDP Excess Energy or Surplus Sales Expected

• A total of 9,523 MWh’s of FES exchange requests will be accommodated through the Resource Integration Exchange Program (Stage 1 PDP & PDP)

• An additional 284 MWh’s of FES exchange requests will be accommodated through the Resource Integration Exchange Program (Stage 2 PDP & BCP)

• Resource Integration Exchange Program has a net zero impact on energy obligation for PDP or BCP


Preliminary FY 2018 AOPEstimates GWhParker - Davis Project

21May 31, 2017


Prior Year

Balance

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL

Resources

Parker Generation 32.4 26.6 22.1 24 32.5 47.4 50.1 41.8 44 41.4 37.2 32.9 432.4

MWD's Parker Share -16.2 -13.3 -11.05 -12 -16.25 -23.7 -25.05 -20.9 -22 -20.7 -18.6 -16.45 -216.2

Davis Generation 93 80.8 72.9 76.7 79.2 120.1 133.2 115 104.4 97.3 90.4 93.5 1156.5

Net Generation 109.2 94.1 84.0 88.7 95.5 143.8 158.3 135.9 126.4 118.0 109.0 110.0 1372.7



Total Resources: 109.2 94.1 84.0 88.7 95.5 146.0 158.3 141.2 134.0 130.6 124.3 122.8 1428.6

Loads



Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PDP / BA Deviation 0.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.8 2.0 -1.8 -3.1 -5.7 -7.2 -5.9 0.0

Hoover Bank 0.0 22.6 11.2 -0.1 5.0 17.8 -2.7 11.0 -6.4 -9.2 -15.2 -18.6 -15.6 0.0

Total Loads: 109.2 94.1 84.0 88.7 95.5 146.0 158.3 141.2 134.0 130.6 124.3 122.8 1428.6





FY 2018 Purchase Power

22

• Projected Purchases:• Current Projections Indicate The Need For Purchases

Of 55.9 GWhs in FY2018

• Cost Of Purchased Power Is Estimated to be $3.1M

for Energy and Reserves


Contact Information

John Paulsen – (602) 605-2557

Xavier Gonzalez – (602) 605–2678

Email: [email protected]

23

Website: https://www.wapa.gov/regions/DSW/PowerMarketing/Pages/power-marketing.aspx

from: receptionist, hq sent: wednesday, may 24, 2017 7:21 ... … · from: receptionist, hq sent:...

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