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Innovative perishable logistics concepts for the emerging produce e-commerce markets Danie Schoeman

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Innovative perishable logistics concepts for the emerging produce e-commerce markets

Danie Schoeman

The ubiquitous consumer

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Global retail e-commerce keeps on clicking …

$1.077

$1.316

$1.592

$1.888

$2.197

$2.489

25.9%

22.2%20.9% 18.6% 16.4%

13.3%

5.1% 5.9% 6.7% 7.4% 8.2% 8.8%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

$-

$0.500

$1.000

$1.500

$2.000

$2.500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Retail e-commerce sales worldwide, 2013-2018 (US$ trillions)

eMarketer: Retail Sales Worldwide Will Top 22 Trillion This Year, Dec 2014

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

… and clicking. Both sides of the globe

6.5% 7.2% 7.8% 8.5% 9.1% 9.8%12.4%

15.9%

19.6%

23.8%

28.6%

33.6%

2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e

Share of retail sales made online expected for US and China

US China

306 349 394 443 494 548473672

911

1208

1568

1973

2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e

Projected size of e-commerce markets for US and China (In US$ billions)

US China

By 2017, China's e-commerce market is expected to exceed US$ 1 Trillion and more of what people buy will be bought online.

eMarketer, 2015; Alibaba Group 2015 Annual Report

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

The consumer’s newfound power

Web (search, comparison shopping, etc.)

Social (social network, reviews, community, etc.)

Digital content (video, editorial, etc.)

Company website

Mobile (apps, mobile Web)

In-store device (kiosk, associate device, etc.)

Tablet (apps, Web)

Call centre

Branch / outlet /store

External digital

touchpoints

Branded digital

touchpoints

Traditional touchpoints

De

pth

Forrester report: Welcome To The Era Of Agile Commerce, 2014

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Millennials and Generation Z are the most avid online grocery shoppers.

Mind the gap – the generation gap

9%

17%

22%

30%

28%

35%

48%

57%

57%

55%

a

b

c

d

e

Order online for delivery to home

Already using Willing to use

5%

6%

11%

19%

20%

21%

40%

56%

60%

55%

a

b

c

d

e

Use online automatic subscription

Already using Willing to use

Generation Z(15-20)

Millennials(21-34)

Generation X(35-49)

Baby Boomers(50-64)

Silent Generation(65+)

Nielsen: The Future of Grocery - E-Commerce, Digital Technology and Changing Shopping Preferences around the World, 2015

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Mind the gap – the generation gap

2%

4%

10%

18%

14%

28%

46%

61%

64%

66%

a

b

c

d

e

Use virtual supermarket {white space}

Already using Willing to use

9%

17%

22%

30%

28%

35%

48%

57%

57%

55%

a

b

c

d

e

Order online and pick up inside the store

Already using Willing to use

Generation Z(15-20)

Millennials(21-34)

Generation X(35-49)

Baby Boomers(50-64)

Silent Generation(65+)

Millennials and Generation Z are the most avid online grocery shoppers.

Nielsen: The Future of Grocery - E-Commerce, Digital Technology and Changing Shopping Preferences around the World, 2015

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Foods with benefits - who’s willing to pay more?

24%

32%

32%

33%

30%

a

b

c

d

e

Very important {with line 2 expansion}

Very important

15%

23%

26%

29%

31%

a

b

c

d

e

Very willing to pay premium {with line 2 expansion}

Very willing to pay premium

Generation Z(15-20)

Millennials(21-34)

Generation X(35-49)

Baby Boomers(50-64)

Silent Generation(65+)

Generation Z and Millennials are most willing to pay a premium for foods that contain certain health attributes.

Nielsen: Global Health & Wellness Survey, 2014

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Touch points of the ever connected consumer on her shopping journeyThe consumer’s shopping journey is not linear anymore.

Web SocialCompany website Mobile Call centreBranch/store

Purchase

Forrester report: Welcome To The Era Of Agile Commerce, 2014

Trust

Evangelize

Friend

Discover

Search

Research

Compare

Decide

Use

Get help

Share

Personalize

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Touch points that matter for the consumer on her shopping journeyTouch points that matter are different for different categories.

Web SocialCompany website Mobile Call centreBranch/store

Purchase

Forrester report: Welcome To The Era Of Agile Commerce, 2014, Deloitte: Navigating The New Digital Divide, 2015

Trust

Evangelize

Friend

Discover

Search

Research

Compare

Decide

Use

Get help

Share

Personalize

Apparel

ElectronicsBaby/toddlerFurniture/Home furnishings/Home improvement

Food/beverage

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Global

Average

United

States

United

KingdomGermany Japan Brazil Russia India China

South

AfricaNigeria

Electronics 77% 83% 84% 90% 53% 86% 71% 79% 96% 60% 65%

Fashion and apparel 76% 87% 85% 88% 84% 75% 64% 84% 97% 47% 65%

Services 76% 80% 76% 77% 82% 70% 63% 82% 87% 79% 80%

Books 73% 82% 82% 80% 70% 75% 52% 70% 89% 64% 71%

Tickets 64% 74% 69% 63% 79% 65% 51% 79% 71% 69% 47%

Music and games 62% 74% 75% 66% 65% 62% 43% 65% 69% 64% 57%

Home appliances 59% 46% 65% 58% 67% 70% 62% 67% 83% 41% 52%

Beauty products 57% 50% 56% 62% 68% 59% 53% 68% 85% 41% 45%

Home furnishings 53% 56% 65% 66% 59% 48% 43% 59% 65% 34% 30%

Sports and outdoor 52% 56% 53% 66% 52% 49% 51% 52% 78% 35% 35%

Toys, kids, and babies 49% 48% 53% 49% 61% 47% 44% 61% 75% 38% 34%

Household items 45% 36% 48% 40% 60% 35% 36% 60% 84% 31% 35%

Groceries 45% 26% 60% 36% 52% 29% 31% 52% 90% 31% 30%

What do consumers buy online?

Electronic goods, apparel, and books are among the most popular online categories.

>75% have bought the category online

%respondents who say they have bought online in the past three months

50%-75% have bought the category online <50% have bought the category online

AT Kearney: Connected Consumers Are Not Created Equal: A Global Perspective

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Online shopping baskets are changing

55%50% 49%

43% 40% 37% 35%30%

23% 21% 19% 18% 17% 15% 14% 13% 11% 11%

Global average: Percentage who have ever purchased the category online

Selected durable categories Selected consumable categories

Nielsen: Global Connected Commerce - Is e-tail therapy the new retail therapy?, 2016

Once consumers get over the trial barrier, retailers who get the assortment, convenience and online experience factors right will benefit from frequent purchasing patterns of consumables.

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

61%

31%

4% 4%

Stores Online Catalog Mobile

Consumers’ hearts still lie with the store

Consumers spend the majority of their shopping time in stores.

A.T. Kearney: Omni-channel Shopping Preferences Study, 2014.

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Consumers still prefer buying groceries in the store

38%

48%

53%

67%

70%

73%

76%

77%

79%

79%

91%

58%

19%

46%

31%

23%

22%

18%

8%

16%

18%

8%

Books, CDs, DVDs & video games

Designer goods

Electronic items

Clothing

Footwear & accessories

Home furnishings

Furniture

Alcohol

DIY & home improvement materials

Cosmetics & toiletries

Groceries

Consumer preference where to buy goods

Buy mostly from store Buy mostly online

Don't buy these items

Displaydata: Rethinking Retail Series: Reinventing the store shelf edge in the age of omni-channel shopping, 2014; AT Kearney: Recasting the Retail Store in Today's Omnichannel World, 2013

7%

9%

13%

15%

24%

To findpromotions orspecial offers

To compareprices

To spend timewith friendsand family

To try, test ortry on products

To fill animmediate

need

Why consumers shop in physical stores

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Technology: both the culprit and the hero

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Digital disruption has already happened

• The world’s largest taxi company owns no taxis

• Largest accommodation provider owns no real estate

• Largest phone companies owns no telecommunications infrastructure

• World’s most valuable retailer own no inventory

• Most popular media owner creates no content

• Fastest growing banks have no actual money

• World’s largest movie house own no cinemas

• Largest software vendors don’t write the apps• a

Silicon Republic: How digital disruption changed 8 industries forever, 2015

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

The digital influence factor

17%

20%

23%

30%

29%

29%

29%

35%

37%

31%

35%

39%

49%

52%

55%

55%

59%

62%

Food/Beverage

Misc. Supplies

Health/Wellness

Apparel

Baby/Toddler

Entertainment

Automotive

Home Furnishings

Electronics

Digital and mobile influence by category

Digital influence Mobile influence

Deloitte: Navigating the new digital divide - Capitalizing on digital influence in retail

The influence of digital devices on the shopping journey are shaping how customers shop and make buying decisions.

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

The influence of social media

Generation Z(16-25)

Millennials(26-35)

Generation X(36-55)

Baby Boomers(56-65)

Silent Generation(65+)

There is a clear correlation between age and social networks’ influence on buying decisions.

Adapted from AT Kearney Connected Consumers Study

5%

12%

22%

33%

32%

14%

22%

29%

32%

35%

e

d

c

b

a

abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

Yes 1 Yes 2 NoYes, but I only occasionally base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

No, I rarely or never base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

% respondents globally

Yes, I frequently base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

44%

35%

52%

68%

61%

22%

49%

42%

29%

33%

e

d

c

b

a

abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

Yes 1 Yes 2 No

3%

4%

6%

7%

5%

12%

19%

24%

31%

32%

e

d

c

b

a

abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

Yes 1 Yes 2 No

Regional influences of social media are vastly different

Generation Z(16-25)

Millennials(26-35)

Generation X(36-55)

Baby Boomers(56-65)

Silent Generation(65+)

US consumers are less influenced by their social networks than consumers in China.

Adapted from AT Kearney Connected Consumers Study

Yes, but I only occasionally base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

% respondents in USA % respondents in China

Yes, I frequently base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

No, I rarely or never base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

44%

35%

52%

68%

61%

22%

49%

42%

29%

33%

e

d

c

b

a

abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

Yes 1 Yes 2 No

3%

4%

6%

7%

5%

12%

19%

24%

31%

32%

e

d

c

b

a

abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz

Yes 1 Yes 2 No

Regional influences of social media are vastly different

Generation Z(16-25)

Millennials(26-35)

Generation X(36-55)

Baby Boomers(56-65)

Silent Generation(65+)

US consumers are less influenced by their social networks than consumers in China.

Yes, but I only occasionally base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

% respondents in USA % respondents in China

Yes, I frequently base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

No, I rarely or never base my decision upon what's happening in my social network

Similar profiles:• UK• Germany• Japan• South Africa

Similar profiles:• India• Russia• Brazil• Nigeria

Adapted from AT Kearney Connected Consumers Study

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Digitally influenced consumers spend more

Shoppers are 29 percent more likely to make a

purchase the same day when they use social media to help shop either before or during their trip (90 % vs. 70 % conversion).

Consumers who use social media during their

shopping process are ≈4x more likely than non-users to spend more or significantly more on purchases as a result of a digital shopping experience.

Respondents who consider themselves

somewhat or very influenced by social media are 6x more likely to spend significantly more than non-users (42 % vs. 7 %) due to their digital shopping experiences.

Deloitte: Navigating the new digital divide - Capitalizing on digital influence in retail

The supply chain response

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Creating a seamless customer experience

11%

15%

25%

26%

32%

58%

92%

Channel partners /marketplaces / affiliates

Dedicated mobile /mCommerce site

Catalog / Call Center

Social channels

Downloadable mobileapp

Online / eCommerce

Stores

Which selling channels do you offer today?

Customer service is the driving force of channel convergence towards omni-channel.

2%

4%

5%

5%

7%

10%

11%

23%

32%

Minimized backorders

Inventory allocation

Replenishment efficiency

Packing efficiency

Fill rate

Order cycle time

Freight costs

Service levels

Customer service

What is your priority in omni channel fulfillment?

RSR Research: Retail Supply Chain Execution: New Requirements To Meet New Demand Benchmark Report 2015; 2015 19th Annual Third-Party Logistics Study.

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

A brave new world

25%

27%

40%

57%

52%

43%

47%

19%

29%

48%

48%

48%

52%

55%

Digital channel growth outpaces store growth, puttingnew pressures on supply chain

Uncertainty about variable supply chain costs

Long supply chains and new product introductioncycles hamper responsiveness

Competitive pressures drive us to create shortercustomer order-to-delivery cycles

Pressure from competitors to achieve same-dayfulfilment to consumers

Consumer demand has grown more unpredictable

How we fulfil it has changed due to cross-channelshopping

Top business challenges around supply chain execution

Leaders Followers

Leaders are more focussed on a customer centric selling model than the followers.

RSR Research: Retail Supply Chain Execution: New Requirements To Meet New Demand Benchmark Report 2015

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Sourcing flexibility – a winning trait

42%

44%

34%

49%

56%

41%

41%

51%

51%

47%

47%

41%

45%

48%

48%

52%

55%

58%

58%

61%

61%

65%

68%

68%

Ship from store DTC

Drop ship from vendor DTC

Store-to-store transfer for click & collect

In-store purchase of online inventory for shipment DTC

Online visibility into in-store inventory

Same-day delivery

In-store reservation of inventory for in-store purchase

DTC fulfilment from our DC

Same-day ship

Ship to store from "Direct" DC for click & collect

Drop ship from vendor direct to store

In-store inventory pick for click & collect

Very valuable operational opportunities in customer order fulfilment processes

Leaders Followers

Leaders see new fulfilment options such as “click & collect” and DTC* as some of their most valuable operational opportunities.

*DTC = direct-to-consumer

RSR Research: Retail Supply Chain Execution: New Requirements To Meet New Demand Benchmark Report 2015

The need for speed

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Evolving supply chains

of companies had re-structured their distribution network in the last year.

of the cases the distribution re-structuring had involved relocating distribution centres to a lower cost country.

More Fewer

National DCs 49.5% 50.5%

Regional DCs 58.5% 41.5%

Global DCs 52.8% 47.2%

of respondents cited the main reasons for the distribution re-structuring were predominantly related to cost.

indicated that they were establishing more regional (multi-country) distribution hubs.

75% 20%

50%

58%

How has the structure of your distribution network changed?

European supply chains are evolving to become more product-and/or channel-specific enabling them to adapt to different customer and product service level requirements.

Transport Intelligence Global Distribution Strategies Survey 2008

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Emergence of direct-to-store delivery aka DC bypass

DC bypass strategies• Direct shipment to

customer• More regionalized

distribution• Velocity based networks

using cross-docking

CEIBS Port of Barcelona Logistics Chair: Direct-to-store distribution impact on European Ports, 2008

Offshoring logistics• Cargo consolidation from

China and other Asian sourcing countries

• Value added logistics activities

• Multi-country distribution

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Direct-to-store aka DC bypass – how it worksTraditional centralized European distribution

Direct-to-store distribution

Deconsolidationcentres or Regional DC

Multipleinboundflows

Suppliers

Continental DCConsolidation

platform

Suppliers

CEIBS Port of Barcelona Logistics Chair: Direct-to-store distribution impact on European Ports, 2008

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

DC Bypass at UPS

Shanghai,China

Los Angeles,CA

New York, NY

Cologne,Germany

Guadalajara, Mexico

Laredo, Texas

Direct-to-Store Illustration

Consolidated freight is broken down into individual shipments at destination port or gateway for direct-to-store delivery.

UPS, Supply Chain Digest, When Does “DC Bypass” Make Sense?, 2008

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

DC Bypass for Air/Sea Freight at Bakers Footwear Group

OverseasGoods

In-TransitAllocations Domestic

Factory CFS Facility Carriers3PL

WarehouseCorporate

OfficeRetail Stores

ARC - Bypassing the Distribution Center, 2013

Accept receiver and examine store needs

Allocations

Delivers to stores

Inventory &sales needs

Cartons delivered and received into

the system

PLD is transmitted to small package

carrier

Destination labels are printed and applied

based on allocations

Labelling is shifted to the factory

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

DC Bypass for Sea Freight Bakers Footwear Group

Factories CFS FacilityOceanVessel

3PLWarehouse

CorporateOffice

Retail Stores

Overseas FloatingWarehouse

Last MinuteAllocations

Domestic

ARC - Bypassing the Distribution Center, 2013

Serialised labels printed and applied to cartons

Container arrives and a receiver message is

sent to corporate

Cartons delivered and received into

the system

Cartons are scanned into the

containerVisibility to the container through web based tracking

Cartons are scanned and destination

labels are printed and applied

PLD is transmitted to small package

carrier

Accept receiver and examine store needs

Last minute allocations

Delivers to stores

Inventory &sales needs

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Requirements for direct-to-store aka DC bypass

• Products need to be allocated earlier than in a traditional environment

• Sensing of products demand must be accurate and reliable

• Volume and scale to ensure full-container load (FCL) shipments

• Reliability of transit times and cargo visibility from origin to destination

• Visibility across the supply chain• Products need to be packaged “customer or store

ready” and labelled as close as possible to origin

www.inboundlogistics.com: Optimize 'Obnoxious Freight' With DC Bypass, 2006; How to Develop a Direct-to-Store Delivery Model, 2010

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Is a direct-to-store delivery model right for you?• Time sensitive products

– Perishable products such food, flowers, etc.

– Trendy items that are fast old-fashioned such as clothes, electronics, etc.

– Promotional products for trade shows, concert events, products launch etc. and collectibles.

• Seasonal products– Heating or air conditioning units

– Snow shovels, fertilizer, and lawn mowers, etc.

– Seasonal sports products

– Items for short, high-volume periods such as Christmas decoration items, back-to-school products, Valentine’s day, etc.

• High unit value products– Jewellery, routers or other products that require security.

• Obnoxious freight – High unit volume products that do not palletize efficiently or aren’t compatible with standard storage

layouts such as furniture, outdoor equipment, automotive replacement parts, and outdoor toys.

– Heavy products such as major appliances.

– Easily damaged items such as glass.

www.inboundlogistics.com: Optimize 'Obnoxious Freight' With DC Bypass, 2006; How to Develop a Direct-to-Store Delivery Model, 2010

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

• Increased speed to market• Reduced end-to-end inventory

carrying costs and warehouse costs

• Reduced cargo damage and losses

• Reduced transportation costs• Lower per unit supply chain

cost • Increased margin• Quicker cash-to-cash cycle• Improved distribution network

efficiency• Reduced physical assets and

deferred investments

Benefits of direct-to-store aka DC bypass

Return of the milkman

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

of online shoppers in China say they are going direct to brand sites.

The myth that retailers are closest to the customer

3%

8%

12%

17%

23%

24%

29%

30%

41%

44%

Other

Better experience

Customization / personalization

Better service

Good stock availability

Better warranty / guarantee

Love of brand / loyalty

That’s all I needed - one brand

Full range or more choices

Lower price

Reasons consumers buy directly from a brand or manufacturer

35%

56%

52%

of consumers globally have already bought products directly from brands or manufacturers.

of online shoppers in the USA say they are going direct to brand sites.

Consumers are shopping directly from manufacturers and many no longer distinguish between retailers and their favourite brands.

PwC: Demystifying the online shopper 10 myths of multichannel retailing, 2013

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

From the brand owners and manufacturers point of view

5%

9%

22%

23%

41%

We compete with retailers’ private-label offerings

We battle for shelf space with other brands

We share consumer data and insights to enable betterplanning, though we act on those insights separately

We continue to work with retail partners but we arealso committed to expanding our competing direct-to-

consumer strategies

We work together to serve consumers through avariety of marketing, sales and service programmes

How do you view your relationship with retailers as it relates to consumer engagement? (% respondents)

41%

of respondents say they expect to sell products directly to consumers over the next 12 months - up from the 24% who say they currently offer direct-to-consumer sales.

Economist Intelligence Unit: New directions: Consumer goods companies hone a cross-channel approach to consumer marketing, 2012

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Why brand owners and manufacturers want to go for direct-to-consumer

5%

8%

13%

30%

35%

36%

44%

59%

69%

70%

We have no plans to ever market or sell directly to consumers

We don’t currently market or sell directly to consumers but we may in the future

Thwart private-label sales

Use as testing ground for new products

Gather consumer insights to improve marketing programmes

Cross-sell (eg, line extensions or bundling)

Gather consumer insights to improve product

Increase interaction with brand

Increase sales

Enhance brand awareness

What are the objectives of your direct-to-consumer initiatives? (% respondents)

Economist Intelligence Unit: New directions: Consumer goods companies hone a cross-channel approach to consumer marketing, 2012

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Brand owners and manufacturers are going for direct-to-consumer

5%

10%

21%

25%

40%

Other

Through third-party, direct-to-consumer sites (eg,

Alice.com, Amazon)

Directly to consumers (eg,through your website or

social media sites)

Through wholesaledistributors

Through retail partners

How do you see percentages of your total sales shifting over the next 3

years through the following channels? (Average % respondents)

21%

4%

22%

25%

29%

Don't know

Other

We have increased the % ofspending on trade promotion

to complement DTC…

We have shifted some tradepromotion budget to DTC

programmes

Our % of trade promotionspending has not changed

What has been the impact of your direct-to-consumer programmes on trade promotion? (% respondents)

Economist Intelligence Unit: New directions: Consumer goods companies hone a cross-channel approach to consumer marketing, 2012

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

When consumers “bypass retail”

78.4%

Amazon

36.6%

Brands

46.6%

Online retailers

is the No. 1 digital source for researching products

is the No. 1 digital shop for buying products

58.4%

Google

22.7%

Brand website

14.9%

Digital retailer site

Brandshop: 2015 Digital Consumer Preferences Survey, September 2015

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Not all brand categories are created equal

30.2%

36.9%

38.0%

55.9%

56.7%

Beauty & skincare

Food products

Household & consumergoods

Electronics

Clothing & apparel

Product categories that US digital buyers prefer to purchase directly from the brand, by industry (% of respondents)

Brandshop: 2015 Digital Consumer Preferences Survey, September 2015

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Reasons to consider the move to direct-to-consumer or “retail bypass”• Loyalty of retailers to a brand based on:

– Their margins.

– How they can leverage the brand for their own purposes.

– How much marketing support/money they can acquire.

• This forces a brand in a long term mindset and model to:– Become operationally lean due to smaller margins.

– Increase profit through streamlining manufacturing by e.g. moving the factory to China.

– Develop content around the training of retailer employees and with high retailer employee churn this becomes a vicious and continuous cycle.

• This leaves the brand with little time and resources to focus on consumer needs.

• According to a IBM study: Less than a third of retailers are able to accommodate the 90% customers who want better personalisation, and “are willing to spend 20 minutes to set up their information to help the retailers give them a better experience”.

• The most effective content creator for the marketing strategy is the brand - the creator of the brand story, and the product (s). A brand's ability to effective tell stories creates stronger bonds than any retailer could - both pre and post sale.

Econsultancy: Why brands need to move to a direct to consumer model, 2014; IBM: you need a personalised customer experience to breach real and digital worlds, 2013

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Benefits of direct-to-consumer or “retail bypass”

Strengthened brand image by telling the brand story as its intended direct to the target market

Aggregate an incredibly rich source of consumer data, which was previously controlled by retailers, delivering insights into consumer needs, and buying behaviours

Creating direct social connections builds meaningful direct conversations building a greater understanding of needs, likes, and dislikes without the 'retailer filter'

The harnessing of data provides local knowledge for global brands, allowing for the penetration into new global markets

Better experiences build brand advocates or fans

The combination of data, direct connections, and meaningful consumer conversations organically develops lifetime strategies

Econsultancy: Why brands need to move to a direct to consumer model, 2014

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

• Fresh comes first– Its about the product not the service– Make-to-order model - processing centre capable of trimming and slicing to each

customer’s order

• Product mix – Perishables 75%; packaged goods 25% vs traditional 50%/50% model

• A shorter supply chain– Cutting out the middle man and ensure quality– Vertical integration lowers inventory

What we learned from Dell – the FreshDirect case

strategy+business: What FreshDirect Learned from Dell, 2003

• Limited SKUs– Maximize volume per item

• No promised land in the “last mile”– Doesn’t offer same-day delivery - only next-

day delivery

– Controls the cost of the “necessary evil” of home delivery

• Its all about speed and cost

Dell’s edge in speed created a cost advantage that ultimately redefined

the PC industry. Its competitors, saddled with longstanding channel

relationships and make-to-stock manufacturing models, have been struggling for years to make the transition to the Dell model, but

they still remain short of the system Dell created from scratch.

Amazon user? Be careful what you wish(-list) for!

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Anticipatory shipping

US Patent Office: Patent US8615473 B2 - Method and system for anticipatory package shipping

Expeditedservice path

Non-expeditedservice path

Tender to common carrierat fulfilment centre

Tender tocommon carrierat hub

Privatecarrier

Fulfilmentcentre

Commoncarrier

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

• They are the No 1 online store in the US

• They collect data while you browse – even mouse hover!

• Big data

• Advanced data mining techniques

• Machine learning algorithms

• Predictive analytics

How do they do it?

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

We already have predictive commerce!

www.toolsgroup.com

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Amazon Prime Air

Amazon.com

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Amazon Prime Air

Amazon.com

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Amazon Fresh

fresh.amazon.com

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

“That said, everything is indeed Fresh. This'll save me a lot of time, but it means I'll never go anywhere other than work or home again. Actually, that's not true, they don't sell beer yet. :)

Amazon Fresh – from a customer

https://www.flickr.com/photos/adpowers/1280742907/in/photostream/

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Amazon in talks to lease Boeing jets to launch its own air-cargo business The online retail giant is looking to expand its delivery operations to avoid the bottlenecks caused by overwhelmed carriers such as UPS.

Amazon.com is negotiating to lease 20 Boeing 767 jets for its own air-delivery service, cargo-industry executives have told The Seattle Times.

The online retail giant wants to build out its own cargo operations to avoid delays from carriers such as United Parcel Service, which have which have struggled to keep up with the rapid growth of e-commerce.

Own air-delivery service?

A Boeing 767 arrives at Boeing Field ferrying parcels for

UPS. Amazon is considering venturing into the same

territory as UPS and FedEx, acquiring similar freighters

for its own air cargo service.

(Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times)

http://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-in-talks-to-lease-20-jets-to-launch-air-cargo-business/

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Could be a game-changer as Amazon is awarded sea freight forwarder licence by US FMCAmazon has continued its much anticipated foray into the freight and logistics sector –yesterday the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) awarded one of its Chinese subsidiaries an Ocean Transportation Intermediaries (OTI) licence that allows it to operate as a sea freight forwarder.

Registered in 2004 by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos as Beijing Century Joyo Courier Service Ltd, the

Sea freight forwarder!

© Frank Gartner

http://theloadstar.co.uk/game-changer-amazon-awarded-sea-freight-forwarder-licence-us-fmc/

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

What’s next Jeff?

Use the what?

Mendhak - flickr

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Final thoughts

• Omni-channel retailing means that customers engage with the brand, rather than with the channel – all customers need to have full access to the retailer’s offer through all channels during all times of the shopping journey

• A truly omni-channel strategy requires a total overhaul of all operations

• Traditionally, supply chains were designed around a network of stores - now they need to be re-engineered around customers

• Speed and agility are key for future success• The potential for vertical and horizontal collaboration

exists e.g. the sharing of delivery networks and collection points

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

What are the three things you hope to achieve?

“Demosthenes, the greatest of Athenian orators, was asked what the three tests of a great speech were. “Action, action and action‟ was his reply.” James C. Humes

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Danie Schoeman+27 82 940 [email protected]

There’s more to talk about, so let’s have coffee …

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

© 2016 Danie Schoeman & Company.

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Danie Schoeman and Companyto provide background information on the subjects mentioned herein,the forecasts, opinions and expectations are entirely those of DanieSchoeman and Company. This presentation was prepared with theutmost due care and consideration for accuracy and factualinformation; the forecasts, opinions and expectations are deemed tobe fair and reasonable. However there can be no assurance thatfuture results or events will be consistent with any such forecasts,opinions and expectations. Therefore the authors will not incur anyliability for any loss arising from any use of this presentation or itscontents or otherwise arising in connection herewith. Neither will thesources of information or any other related parties be held responsiblefor any form of action that is taken as a result of the proliferation ofthis document.