fulfilling the promise of renewable energy: a look at the future · 2013-09-26 · fulfilling the...
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Fulfilling the Promise of Renewable Energy: A Look at the Future
Energy 2050: The Future of Renewable Energy
June 21, 2005
Dr. Dan E. ArvizuDirector, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
NREL/PR-100-38345 June 2005
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Energy Challenges are Enormous
Economic Growth
Environmental Impact
Energy Security and Reliability
Market Restructuring
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Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2005
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables
23%
39%
8%24%
7%
2001
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables8%
22%
38%
5%
28%
2025
Worldwide Energy Consumptionby Source
54% increase
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Electricity Outlook: 2001-2025
Source: International Energy Outlook 2003, Table A9
NorthAmerica4,293 BKh6,628 BKh
Central/ South America782 BKh1,577 BKh
Middle East/Africa1,000 BKh2,633 BKH
Japan/Australia1,221 BKh1,658 BKh
DevelopingAsia3,103 BKh6,604 BKh
WesternEurope2,540 BKh3,708 BKh
3.3% 1.4%
Eastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union1,768 BKh2,642 BKh1.8%
3.0%
1.6%
2.3%
3.7%
• Total annual average world electricity growth - 2.4% from 2001 to 2025• Growth rates in transitioning economies higher than developed economies• Natural gas and coal will be near-term fuels of choice for generation• Distributed generation and renewable may offer attractive options
74% increase
54% increase
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U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2005
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables
23%40%
6%23%
8%
2003
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables
6%23%
41%
6%
24%
202536% increase
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The Role of Renewables in theU.S. Energy Supply - 2003
Coal 23%
Petroleum 39%
Renewable 6%
Natural Gas 24%
Nuclear 8%
Wind 2%
Biomass 46%
Hydroelectric 46%
Geothermal 5%
Solar <1%
Source: AEO 2004 tables (released in December 2003) based on US energy consumption. Overall breakdown Table A1 (Total Energy Supply and Disposition), and Renewable breakdown Table A18 (Renewable Energy, Consumption by Section and Source).
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RejectedEnergy
U.S. Energy Flows98
.2 Q
uadr
illio
n Bt
u Fuels61%Fuels61%
Electricity39%
62%
Buildings40%
Industry33%
Transportation27%
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Technology-based Solutions:There is no one silver bullet, we need many
• Energy efficiency• Renewable energy• Non-polluting transportation fuels • Separation and capture of CO2 from fossil fuels• Next generation of nuclear fission and fusion technology• Transition to smart, resilient, distributed energy systems coupled
with pollution-free energy carriers, e.g. hydrogen and electricity
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Renewable Energy Must Play a Key Role in a More Diverse and
Secure Energy Supply
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Alaska1
California2,096
Colorado229
Hawaii9
Iowa632
Kansas114
Massachusetts1
Michigan2
Minnesota615
Nebraska20
New Mexico267
New York48
North Dakota
66Oregon259
Pennsylvania129
Tennessee29
Texas1,293
Vermont6
Wisconsin53
Wyoming285
Washington244
South Dakota
44
West Virginia66
Arkansas0.1
Idaho0.2
Maine0.1
Montana2
New Hampshire0.1
Oklahoma176
Utah0.2
Illinois81
Ohio7
U.S. installed capacity (2004): 6,770 MWWorld installed capacity (2004): 48,000 MWCurrent cost is 4 to 6¢/kWh in best regimes (unsubsidized)Source: Worldwatch Institute
Wind Energy StatusWind Capacity (MW)
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Solar Energy Status• Concentrating Solar
Power– Nine parabolic trough
plants – 12-14¢/kWh
• Photovoltaics– Price of power from
grid connected PV systems is 20 to 30¢/kWh
PV systems at the Arizona Public Service facility in Prescott, Arizona
U.S. installed capacity (2004) - PV and solar thermal: 0.5 GWWorld capacity (2004):• Solar PV, grid-connected: 1.8 GW• Solar PV, not grid-connected: 2.2 GWSource: Worldwatch Institute
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Biomass/Biofuels Status
Biopower• Grid-connected capacity
– 9700 MW direct combustion– 400 MW co-firing
• Biopower electricity prices generally range from 8-12¢/kWh
Biofuels• Biodiesel – 15 million gallons (2002)• Corn ethanol
– 81 commercial plants– 3.4 billion gallons (2004)– ~$1.22/gal
• Cellulosic ethanol*– $2.73/gal
* Not commercially available
Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco Bay Area with baseload capacity, the Tracy Biomass Plant uses wood residues discarded from agricultural and industrial operations.
• World biomass electricity capacity (2004): 36 GW• World biofuels production capacity (2004): ethanol
32 billion l/yr; biodiesel 2.2 billion l/yr
Source: Worldwatch Institute
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Factors Inhibiting Pace and Volume of Renewable Energy Market Entrance
• Consistent & predictable policies• Continued advanced technology
development• Enabling market viability
RISK REDUCTION
CAPITALMOBILIZATION
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Current Federal Energy Legislative Proposals*
• Production tax credit extension• Solar investment tax credits for
residential and commercial property• Tax credits for fuel cell, hybrid, biodiesel
and alternative fuel vehicles• Renewable energy portfolio standards
* Pending in Congress
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State Policies are OpeningMarkets for Renewable Energy
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Renewable Electricity StandardsNevada: 15% by 2013, solar 5% of annual
Hawaii: 20% by 2020
Texas:2.7% by 2009
California: 20% by 2017
Colorado: 10% by 2015
New Mexico: 10% by 2011
Arizona: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solar
Iowa: 2% by 1999Minnesota: 19% by 2015*
Wisconsin:2.2% by 2011
New York:24% by 2013
Maine:30%by 2000
MA: 4%by 2009
CT: 10% by 2010
RI: 16%by 2019
Pennsylvania:8% by 2020
NJ: 6.5% by 2008Maryland:7.5% by 2019
18 States + D.C.
*Includes requirements adopted in 1994 and 2003 for one utility, Xcel Energy.
Washington D.C:11% by 2022
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There is Regional Interest in Promoting Clean Energy
Western Governors’ AssociationClean and Diversified Energy Initiative
• Western U.S is rich with fossil, hydro and renewable energy resources.
• Goal of 30,000 MW of clean energy by 2015, using solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, clean coal technologies and advanced natural gas technologies.
• Goal to increase energy efficiency by 20% by 2020. • Meet the West’s generation and transmission needs
over the next 25 years.
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What Are Some of the Issues?
• Valuing externalities• Connectivity to the grid• Challenges in current regulatory
environment• Transmission
capacity
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Can renewables have sufficient impact to change the energy
future?
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Worldwide Renewable Resources Potential:Meeting the RE Challenge Depends Heavily on Solar
Adapted from Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology
Solar
Biomass HydroelectricGeothermal
Wind
Far exceeds today’s world energy consumption
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The Future for Renewable Energy:A Technology Outlook
WindSolar
Biomass
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Renewable Energy Costs are DecreasingLevelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
Wind
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h40
30
20
10
0
PV
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
100
80
60
40
20
0
BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h
10
8
6
4
2
0
706050403020100
15
12
9
6
3
0
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002
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Wind OutlookDOE Wind Program R&D
goals:• 3¢/kWh* in class 4+
wind areas onshore• 5¢/kWh* for offshore
systems
* unsubsidized
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1.5MW
3.6MW
Commercial
Prototype (offshore)
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Solar OutlookDOE Solar Program
goals• Photovoltaics:
6¢/kWh by 2020• Concentrating solar
power/troughs: 5¢/KWh by 2012
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Cost/Efficiency of Photovoltaic Technology
Costs are modules per peak W; installed is $5-10/W; $0.35-$1.5/kW-hr
Future Technology Directions
• Research on crystalline silicon, thin films, and balance-of-systems components
• Higher-risk, longer-term R&D for all system components that can leapfrog beyond today’s technology
Source: Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology
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Biomass/Biofuels OutlookDOE Biomass Program
goals:• Competitive electricity by
2020
DOE Biofuels Program goals: • Produce ethanol cheaply
from lignocelluloseresources – agriculture & forestry
• Use of biology together with thermo-chemistry
• Target: $1.07/gal by 2020
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Biomass Technology Advances
Future Technology Directions
• Plant cell wall deconstruction
• Robust ethanologens
• Better options for thermochemicalfuels
• Process intensification
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U.S. Industry Market Viability
Technology Roadmaps and Vision for the Future
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LWST Turbines:• 3¢/kWh at 13mph• Electricity Market
2012
Offshore LWST Turbine:• 5 cents/kWh• Shallow/Deep water• Electricity Market• Higher wind Sites
2012 and Beyond
Custom Turbines:• Electricity• H2 production• Desalinate water• Storage• Multi-Market
2030 and Beyond
2005
A Future Vision for Wind Energy Markets
Bulk Power Generator
4-6¢ at 15mph
• Land Based
• Bulk Electricity
• Wind Farms
Future Potential=20% of
Electricity Market
Land Based Electricity Path Transmission Barriers
Cost & Regulatory Barriers
Land or Sea Based:• Hydrogen• Clean Water
Cost & Infrastructure Barriers
Land Based LWSTLarge-Scale
2–5 MW
Offshore Turbines5 MW and Larger
Tomorrow
Offshore Electricity Path
Advanced Applications Path
Today
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The Biorefinery: The Path Ahead
• A diverse feedstock supply that provides over 1 billion tons of biomass per year
• Equivalent of 3.5 billion barrels of crude oil per year or 55% of current U.S. petroleum demand
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Technologies
Policies Markets• Conventional
energy prices• Green markets
• Incentives & mandates
• High technology• Mass production
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The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywww.nrel.gov
Golden, Colorado