Raztech LLC

Future Directions in

Reconfigurable Computing

Dr. Rahul Razdan

Contact:

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Outline

Brief History of Electronics

Forward Looking Strategic Drivers

Current Situation in Reconfigurable Computing

Opportunities to Innovate

Conclusions

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Accelerating Advances in Technology

Source: Kurzweil 1999 – Moravec 1998

Mechanical

Electro-Mechanical

VacuumTube

DiscreteTransistor

IntegratedCircuit

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

IE-5

IE-3

IE+0

IE+3

IE+6

IE+9

IE+12

$1000 B

uy

s: C

om

puta

tions

per

sec

ond

Nanotechnology

2020

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Trends in Increasing Transistor Density

Source: Kurzweil 1999 – Moravec 1998

MaterialsScience

Era

NanoEra

LithoEra

Tra

nsi

stors

per

Chip

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020198019751970

1 Million

1 Billion

1 Trillion

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Architectural Progression (Technology)

Key Abstraction Innovations:

ISA, VM, Shared Memory

HLL Languages, operating systems

Mainline Innovations:

Latency Techniques:

Caching (istream, dstream), Prediction (istream mostly), Speculation

Bandwidth Techniques:

Pipelining, Wide Busses, Multi-processor/Multi-core

Smarter Compilers

RISC vs CISC, Performance Feedback

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Architectural Progression (Technology)

Beyond Conventional CPUs:

Graphics, Network, Search?

Range of communication for multi-core/multi-processor (Ambric to Tilera)

RISC vs CISC of today.

Other Models: VLIW, Multithreaded, SIMD

Alternative Proposed Models:

Reconfigurable Computing Platforms

Nibble-mode processors

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Business Overview:

Electronics: $1T in the context of $12T U.S. Economy ($60T+ WW)

Semiconductors: $200B

FPGA: $3.5B

EDA: $4B, PLM: $16B

Three Large Vertical Mega-Markets:

Information Technology: Computers, Laptops

Internet Infrastructure: Routers

Portable Consumer Device: cell phone, ipod

All else in noise:

Industrial, Medical, Defense, etc..

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Outline

Brief History of Computer Architectures

Technology and Business View

Forward Looking Strategic Drivers

Technology and Business View

Current Situation in Reconfigurable Computing:

Opportunities to innovate:

Business and Technology View

Conclusions

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2005 20102000

Increasing Cost (Technology)

Sources: IC Insights; Intel - Historical Wafer Size Trend

$0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

Cost

per

fab

($bil

lions)

$3.5

$4.0POWER6790 million transistors

Intel 808629,000 transistorsSolid Logic

Tech

2 transistors

POWER1800,000 transistors

POWER4174 million transistors

Cell234 million transistors

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IBM Transistor Performance Improvement

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm

Gain by Traditional Scaling Gain by Innovation

Rel

ativ

e %

Im

pro

vem

ent

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Semiconductor R&D Expense/Revenue

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008

2004-20 annual revenue growth @ 6.5%, while R&D expense growth @ 12.2%

Revenue

Expense

$M

illi

on

s

Source: VLSI Research Inc.

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Foundry industry evolution

Late 80s. Pure play foundry established to meet the need of manufacturing outsourcing from IDM

Mid. 90s. Fabless boomed with COT model, alternative of ASIC

Late 90s and early 00s. Fast growth of fabless attracted new foundries,

New pure play, Tower, Silterra, 1st Silicon, GSMC, SMIC

IDM turned foundries, Jazz, ASMC, HHNEC, Dongbu, VIS, Polar fab, Zfoundry

IDM offered foundry service, IBM, MagnaChip, Austriamicrosystems, Cypress

JV Fab with Fabless and Fab-lite, Chartered SMP, UMCi, Wafertech

Mid 00’, reality called, few foundries makes money

Differentiation -> Collaboration -> Consolidation started

Mega fab trend started

Samsung, Fujitsu, Toshiba in foundry game

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Strategic Development Alliances: CAPEX Landscape

Source: IBM MI, IC Insights, August

2007

$33.22

$19.08

$12.65

$8.06

$4.83 $4.70 $0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

IBM Technology Alliances

Intel ASPLA TSMC UMC TI

2003-2006 Semiconductor CAPEX (non-DRAM), $B

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Semiconductor Industry Association. International Technology Roadmap

for Semiconductors: 1999 edition. Austin, TX: International Sematech, 1999

Design Productivity GapL

ogic

Tra

nsi

sto

rs p

er C

hip

(M

)

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001198519831981 2003 2005 2007 2009

0.001

10,000 100,000

0.01

Pro

duct

ivit

y (

K)

Tra

ns/

Sta

ff –

Mo

.

1,000 10,000

100 1,000

10 100

1.0 10

0.1 1.0

0.01 0.1

Logic Tr./Chip

Tr./S.M.

58% / Year Compounded

Complexity Growth Rate

21% / Year Compounded

Productivity Growth Rate

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Impact on Design (Investment View)

Cost of IC design rising rapidly and very risky

$50M for 90nm

2-3 years before first revenue

7 years before exit event

Applicability to volume driven markets critical

single large focused market or

Collection of markets served with single solution

Increased focus on platforms for all vertical markets

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What does this mean for computer architects ?

A small number of very large chips in traditional markets

Architectural innovation providing diminishing returns

Growth driven by GDP

Smaller Markets maybe big enough more platforms:

Bioinformatics, Cryptography, Oil Exploration, Search

Bets being made today: sicortex, pa-semi, pico-chip

Environment favors small number of flexible platforms

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Outline

Brief History of Computer Architectures

Technology and Business View

Forward Looking Strategic Drivers

Technology and Business View

Current Situation Reconfigurable Computing:

Opportunities to innovate:

Business and Technology View

Conclusions

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Reconfigurable Computing: Core Play Today

Assume a flexible implementation fabric (FPGA)

Operating principles:

Leverage flexibility for in-context optimization (performance/power)

Match data type and parallelism between implementation and application

Leverage space vs time

Various Levels of granularity:

ILP

Co-processor

System

Two Basic Use-Models: Embedded or HPC

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Reconfigurable Computing: High Level Thrusts

ILP:

Research: PRISC, Chimeara, Garp

Commercial: ST (2007/2008)

Co-Processor:

Research: Splash

Commercial: Nallatech, Cray, HP

System:

Research: PAM, BEE2, Splash

Commercial: Emulation

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Reconfigurable Computing: Observations:

HPC:

Many studies on “unit” level performance/power advantage

Limited Success at the Application Level

Limited Commercial Success

Embedded: some success with real-time data-flow applications

Radar Signal Processing

Image Processing

System: some success with dedicated system solutions (logic emulation)

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Reconfigurable Computing: Logic Emulation

Two Basic Use Models:

Simulation Acceleration

In-Circuit Test

Historical:

Early Systems Built with FPGA Technology ($200M/year)

Issues With FPGA solution:

Multi-FPGA Mapping (Rent’s Rule)

Compile-Time limiting factor for design productivity

Today: nibble-mode uprocessors own largest marketshare

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Reconfigurable Computing: Current Status

Limited Success: reasons cited

Design Flow is limited

FPGA support for runtime reconfiguration poor

Application entry point difficult

Observations:

Many Issues similar to parallel uprocessor development.

Caught between processor and ASIC

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Outline

Brief History of Computer Architectures

Technology and Business View

Forward Looking Strategic Drivers

Technology and Business View

Current Situation in Reconfigurable Computing:

Opportunities to innovate:

Business and Technology View

Conclusions

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Reconfigurable Computing: Potential Direction

Shift the value statement:

Focus on flexibility as a basic value (vs power/perf)

Find markets where it is inherently valued and build solutions

Long Life Cycle Markets(LLC):

Cost of deployment and maintenance overwhelm initial costs

Which markets exhibit these characteristics ?

Energy, Health Care, Aerospace and Defense

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Opportunities to Innovate: LLC Products Details

Old Mega-Markets: Product Life (< 3 years)

New Potential Mega-Markets: Product Life (>10 years)

New Issues:

Future Requirements Volatility

Enhanced Reliability

Supply Chain Integrity

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Short vs. Long Lifecycle

0 5 10 15

Product

Deployed

Product is

Replaced

Product is

Serviced

Product is

upgraded

Product

Deployed

Years

Short

Lifecycle

Long

Lifecycle

Product is

Serviced

Examples: DVD player, Cellphone, laptop

Examples: Pacemaker, Traffic control, power meter

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Short vs. Long Lifecycle

0 5 10 15

Product

Deployed

Product is

Replaced

Product is

Serviced

Product is

upgraded

Product

Deployed

Years

Product is

Serviced

Time to market

Time in service

Short

Lifecycle

Long

Lifecycle

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Short vs. Long Lifecycle

0 5 10 15

Product

Deployed

Product is

Replaced

Product is

Serviced

Product is

upgraded

Product

Deployed

Years

Product is

Serviced

Cost ofproduct

Cost ofmaintenance

Short

Lifecycle

Long

Lifecycle

Cost ofmaintenance

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Short vs. Long Lifecycle

0 5 10 15

Product

Deployed

Product is

Replaced

Product is

Serviced

Product is

upgraded

Product

Deployed

Years

Product is

Serviced

Initialfunctionality

Evolvingfunctionality

Short

Lifecycle

Long

Lifecycle

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Short vs. Long Lifecycle

0 5 10 15

Product

Deployed

Product is

Replaced

Product is

Serviced

Product is

upgraded

Product

Deployed

Years

Product is

Serviced

How soon will parts be available

How long will parts be available

Short

Lifecycle

Long

Lifecycle

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Short vs. Long Lifecycle

0 5 10 15

Product

Deployed

Product is

Replaced

Product is

Serviced

Product is

upgraded

Product

Deployed

Years

Product is

Serviced

Missing features added to next version

Missing features added to upgrades

Short

Lifecycle

Long

Lifecycle

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Long Lifecycle Solution: Programmable Fabric

Programmable Reconfigurable fabric can resolve the major LLC issues

Reliability

Evolvability

Supply Chain

All the years of research work on power/performance is “upside”

Potentially rich new area, but significant challenges exist.

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Long Lifecycle Solution: Research Issues

LLC Design System:

What are the right metrics to capture the newer issues within the design environment ?

How are these metrics generated and maintained over time ?

Can we enhance optimization (synthesis) to account for the new metrics ?

How do we connect these metrics and view of lifetime cost to existing systems in the product lifecycle management space ?

LLC Programmable Platform:

How do we handle uprocessors, FPGAs, and analog ?

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The Challenge : Traditional PLM Environment

ClearCase

SCM

ECAD

VPDM

AuthoringApplications

Tightly coupled

data management

with authoring

applicationsSystems

Model

RSA

SDM

Analysis &Simulation

SoftwareEngr. & Simulation

ECAD

PDM3

MCAD3CATIA

ENOVIA

OtherBusinessSystems

ERPParts

MgmtLogistics

Maint.

Systems

Legacy

Systems

PDM2

MCAD2

ePDM Enterprise PDM ECRECO

ActionActionAction

ECOECO

TightlyCoupled

Required

to maintain

integrity of

complex

product

models

Local DataManagement

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Long Lifecycle Solution: Early Work

LLC Design System:

Early Research at University of Florida

Spun-out into startup:

Basic Idea:

Intercept the Design Process at the System Level (Systemc, Mathlab)

Introduce the notion of architecture and a mapping from functional definition.

Generate evolvability via process of sensitivity analysis of functional definition.

Generate reliability and supply chain from sensitivity analysis of architecture

Build a total cost function from the combination of above

4x-7x cost optimization shown in early prototypes

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Long Lifecycle Solution: Early Work

Candidate

Algorithm

Model

Candidate

Architecture

Model

System

Model

Mapping

HW Analysis

PLM Code Generation

Algorithm

Model Library

Architecture

Model Library

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Conclusions:

Semi-Conductor Trends Point towards consolidation

Fabs and Designs

Reconfigurable Computing has had difficulty with performance/power

Design Eco-System

Caught between uprocessor and ASIC

Long Lifecycle Products offer an intriguing opportunity:

Flexibility itself is valued and can provide benefit

LLC Products may represent the next large markets (Energy/Medical)

Reconfigurable computing research maybe extendable in the LLC direction.