Professor Julian TeicherDeputy Dean (Research), School of Business and Law02 August 2018

CRICOS 00111D TOID 3059

Future Proofing Your Business and Employees

2

The joys of how to

3

Future Proofing your Workplace• The Future-Proof Workplace is a survival guide for the new

realities of business. The future is no longer some far-off destination; it is here, right now, and already changing the way we work. Historically, the sea-changes have advanced humanity and inspired us to reach even further; from the Dark Ages to the Age of Enlightenment, from agrarian to industrial societies. And today is no different. But only those who are ready for the changes will come out thriving. This book highlights the changes already taking place around us: the transition from skills to knowledge, the neuroscience approach to leadership and motivation, galloping technical advances, and more. Whether you're a CEO, a leader or manager, or just trying to survive the chaos, this invaluable guide is your wake-up call. The future is now.

4

5

The story in brief…• Is this an era of increasing change or a new industrial revolution (IR4)?

• Rapid transformation• The future can be discerned but not known in detail• We tend to think that we live in ‘special times”

• Most discussions take the perspective of:• Advanced capitalist nations• Major urban concentrations• The focus is on technological change and not the system

• The need to move from a global to a local or regional perspective:• What exists elsewhere is usually filtered and transformed• Need to focus on identifying opportunities and the associated jobs and skill

requirements• It is a challenge for communities, governments and` especially educational providers

6

Fears of job loss from technological change are anything but exceptional; ask the Luddites!• In the 1930s, J.M. Keynes envisaged that innovations such as electricity would

produce a world where people spent most of their time on leisure activities.

• In the 1960s, Lyndon Johnson established a Presidential Commission to investigate fears that automation was permanently reducing the amount of work available.

• In 1978, the historian Ian Turner, organised a symposium on the implications of the new technologies and he predicted that the world was on the verge of a period as significant as the Industrial revolution. By 1988, at least a quarter of the Australian workforce would be made redundant by technological change

Proposition 1: The future of work cannot be known with any certainty and the dangers of chronocentricity

7

Fears of automation and the implications for jobs

Most Americans believe their jobs are safe from the spread of automation and robotics, at least during their lifetimes, and only a handful says automation has cost them a job or loss of income.

The public expects a number of different jobs and occupations to be replaced by technology in the coming decades, but few think their own job is heading in that direction," Aaron Smith, associate director at the Pew Research Center, said.

USA Today, 14 October 2017https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/careers/employment-trends/2017/10/04/your-job-automated-70-americans-say-no/731200001/

Same data; different story….

According to Olivia Solon: “Ordinary Americans are very wary and concerned about the growing trend in automation and place a lot of value in human decision-making,” said Aaron Smith, the author of the research, which surveyed more than 4,000 US adults. “They are not incredibly excited about machines taking over those responsibilities.”

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/04/robots-artificial-intelligence-machines-us-survey

A utopian future for work and jobs?“Tim Dunlop has gone frombeing a job sceptic….that the economy, as we know it, will change dramatically. Costs will be lower, machines that learn will be able to do the jobs we do now, and, if we get the politics right, people will be free to pursue any endeavour they want to.”The Guardian, 26 September, 2016

Apparently there is ‘good news’ on jobs in the short term

“This means tradespeople – from plumbers to hairdressers – are likely to be relatively insulated from technological replacement.It means that STEM skills (science, technology, engineering and maths) will be good things to have. Amazon, for instance, employs hundreds of PhDs in mathematics, working on logistics for their ever-growing delivery services.In a development rarely discussed by politicians – who tend to dismiss the arts as soft and impractical – it means that higher education in arts-related subjects, including ethics, critical thinking and social relationships are also likely to be valued and in (relative) demand. An ability to deal with ambiguity, complexity and diversity will be desirable,and as CEO Steve Yi of advertising platform MediaAlpha has said: “In the dynamic environment of the technology sector, there is not typically one right answer when you make decisions. There are just different shades of how correct you might be.”

11

The Industrial Revolutions and Manufacturing• Manufacturing has been at the forefront of all industrial revolutions from:

• the emergence of steam power• the advent of electricity• the introduction of information technology

• The evolution of technology in manufacturing has led to:• large scale replacement of jobs in developed countries by machines • the relocation of manufacturing bases to developing countries where less costly

labour forces have been utilised in a global expansion of commercial goods. • This expansion has created new workforces in developing nations but

production has been focused mainly on large-scale, standardised merchandise created by low skilled workers—but this is changing

12

The Fourth Industrial Revolution: the reinvention of business and jobs?Most closely associated with Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum. The Fourth Industrial Revolution builds on the Digital Revolution, representing new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even the human bodySignified by technology breakthroughs in a number of fields; e.g. robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology , The Internet of Things, 3D printing and autonomous vehicles.No industry or place will be immune from these changes but it is clear that manufacturing has been at the forefront.

Wanted: Factory workers; degree requiredWhen the German engineering company Siemens Energy opened a gas turbine production plant in Charlotte, N.C., some 10,000 people showed up at a job fair for 800 positions. But fewer than 15 percent of the applicants were able to pass a reading, writing and math screening test geared toward a ninth-grade education.

Proposition 2: closer engagement between industry, government at all levels and education providers is essential.

Manufacturing is changing in developed nations

• Mass standardisation is giving way to individualisation and specialisation of goods, apparently driven by consumer demand for customisation

• This has involved strategies that focus on the production of personalized mass products driven by the vast data from social media and web searches consumers make as they research a product they wish to purchase

• Google, processes 4 billion searches per day; Twitter provides 500 million tweets a day; and Alibaba, leading the e-commerce world takes 254 million orders in one day

• Proposition 3: The division between services and manufacturing is becoming less meaningful

15

Manufacturing, IR4 and the Environment• There is also an increasing awareness of the often detrimental

impact of manufacturing on the environment• This has led to a search for new ways of achieving flexibility,

efficiency, costs and reduced environmental impact • ‘smart systems—homes, factories, farms, grids or cities—will

help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change’ (World Economic Forum 2016, p. v).

• And of course in regional Australia there is scope to become a source of clean energy (solar, waste recycling) for industry

Proposition 4: there is potential for the creation of new jobs in moving toward Green manufacturing

16

Innovations in services create job opportunities• Outside of manufacturing, the rise of new services have included:

• electronic banking• finance and investment• travel services (tickets and reservations)• entertainment and recreation (games, hobbies, movies)• e-government (interactive processes)• the internet of things; • e-education (distance learning)

Proposition 5:The development of services into the 21st Century removes borders and barriers to trade and requires new skills and competencies

17

And what is the future for agriculture?• “By 2050, a global population of 9.8 billion will demand 70% more food than is consumed

today. Feeding this expanded population nutritiously and sustainably will require substantial improvements to the global food system – one that provides livelihoods for farmers as well as nutritious products for consumers” World Economic Forum 2016; https://www.weforum.org/projects/strengthening-global-food-systems

• Dramatic changes are already occurring; e.g. the chipping of cattle and, computerising irrigation but improved labour productivity operates against the backdrop of rising demand

• Environment, cost and quality issues are likely to see food production move closer to the farm gate with obvious implications for local labour markets including in food technology, biology and chemistry

Proposition 6: The new jobs in agriculture and agribusiness will be in STEM

18

And back to the recurrent fears of job loss...

• Unemployment rates, a complex picture– Australia: 5.4% June 1918– US: 3.9% April 2018

19

Employment Outlook: 2015-20 (WEF 2016)

20

Source: Foundation for Young Australians (2016)

THE NEW WORK MINDSET

Technologists Carers

Generators

Artisans

CoordinatorsDesigners

Informers

Future Job Clusters

According to NBN and the Regional Institute ‘super connected jobs’ will grow most rapidly

“Health care professionals, carers and aides, and business, human resources and marketing professionals are projected to see some of the largest employment gains in Australia in the short term – through to 2021. Each of these jobs involves complex situations and requires creative problem solving skills. They also require high levels of contact with clients.”

23

Contribution to employment growth by industry: Australia 2018-2022

Hours spent on jobs now and in the future

24

Contribution of major occupations to employment growth: Australia 2018-2022

25

Projected employment growth by skill level: Australia 2018-2022

26

Work skills of the future: STEAM• Skills in interacting with machines and making sense of information and data,

including evaluating information in order to make reasoned decisions and take action

• Solving complex problems which may be inter-disciplinary in nature and involve working effectively in teams

• Taking on a greater authority for localised decision making and judgement• Creativity and entrepreneurial thinking with an ability to make innovative use

of knowledge• Financial sustainability• Collaboration and communication across cultural, geographical and language

boundaries • Environmental management

27

What can we learn from employment patterns in Queensland: 2011-2016

• In many service sectors there were declines in employment in regional and outback areas but growth in south-east Queensland. In the outback only Administration, Education, Health and Recreation sectors experienced strong growth

• Employment in Agriculture grew much faster in south-east Queensland, • The downturn in the mining sector after 2012 led to a decline in regional and outback

employment.. • There was a decline in Professional, Scientific and Technical employment in regional

areas, suggesting that transformation into a ‘new’ information-age economy is confined to south-east Queensland.

• In the Accommodation and Food Services sector, which closely maps to the tourism sector, there has been limited growth of employment in regional areas and negative growth in outback areas

Proposition 7: The timing and character of transitions will vary greatly and it cannot be assumed that Tourism will be the mainstay

28

29

Jobs and job titles have always changed

• Names remain unchanged but the content changes

• Job titles vanish—when did you last encounter a moulder or typesetter?

• New jobs emerge but they are not wholly new

30

Examples of likely job changeBricklaying: The materials are not environmentally friendly and the work is inherently unsafe, and there are now low cost alternatives. Accounting: The transition here is from bookkeeping and income tax returns d to provision of business advice and consulting. It is accounting which sustains large parts of the HE sector. Farming: There is a shortage of farmers and agricultural workers as the

workforce ages and younger people reject arduous jobs. Future farmers will be horticulturists, technicians and business managers. Home maintenance and recreation provision: inevitable consequence of ageing and growing population

31

More examples of job changeTeachers: Greater emphasis on STEM but schools will retain their role in socialising people for work and society. Medical: More in-home and online monitoring and care delivery for older and disabled people as technology continues to advance. Less reliance on physical strength and more information and communication skills

32

New jobs with some old skill sets• Social media manager• Social media compiler• Genetic counsellor• Data scientist• Community manager• Product manager• Chief information office • Data analytics manager• Telemedicine physician• Scrum master

33

NUMEROUS REPORTS ON THE FUTURE OF JOBS• But there are differences in their forecasts which are quite profound• There is little consideration of the differing circumstances of locations,

especially the difference between major cities and regional areas• There is a degree of consistency on the growing skill requirements: STEAM

34

What are the implications for education and training?

1. New work skills require greater connectedness between employers and educational institutions

2. Some new jobs will require physical presence in education; e.g. laboratory work3. New knowledge often emerges outside the HE sector in industry so the challenge is to

migrate it across4. Millennials are learning continuously developing IT skills so not all skills must be taught5. Growth in online delivery is undeniable but some people prefer face to face learning and

some knowledge requires it6. Fast moving technologies lend themselves to the development of skills as needed and in

modular form so we can expect more micro-badging and modularisation7. For the education and training sector, there will be new business opportunities as it provides

new services to individuals, entrepreneurs, large corporations and the public sector. The sector may become a noteworthy new source of employment itself’(WEF 2016, p. 29).

35

The future is bright for universities

A 2015 PWC report for the Australian Vice Chancellors Committee wrote:The Foundation for Young Australians predicts that today’s young people will hold as many as 17 different jobs, in five different careers, over the course of their working lives.102 A 2015 study by PwC Australia found that 44% of 5.1 million current Australian jobs are at risk from digital disruption in the next 20 years, and that 75% of the fastest growing occupations require STEM skills.103 Australian universities are integral to training a qualified and adaptable labour force, increasing the supply of skilled workers available to the economy, to meet these changing expectations.

36

A final word…• Workforce change is not simply a feature of industrial society. New

technologies throw up new jobs and old jobs cease to exist– Who could have foreseen the plethora of roles involving social media?

• We are left with the conundrum of known unknowns and unknown unknowns:– We know that future jobs require knowledge of science and technology

and good interpersonal skills• Ultimately what matters is the rate at which purchasing power increases and

whether humans continue to exhibit unlimited wants • There is much to be said for human agency, the decisions and actions of

communities, and the responsibility of governments to formulate and implement policy

37

38