gbp/usd 1971 2011files.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/gapohy32an... · eur/usd vs baltic dry index...
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www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FOREX
GBP/USD 1971 ‐ 2011
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
£ ‐ $
GBP/USD 2003 ‐ 2011
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
£ ‐ $
USD/JPY 1971 ‐ 2011
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐Yen
USD/JPY 2003 ‐ 2011
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐Yen
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 1 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FOREX
EUR/USD 1975 ‐ 2011
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.55
1.65
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Eur‐US$
EUR/USD 2003 ‐ 2011
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.55
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Eur‐US$
USD/AUS 1971 ‐ 2011
0.45
0.65
0.85
1.05
1.25
1.45
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐AU$
USD/AUS 2003 ‐ 2011
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐AU$
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 2 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FOREX VS BALTIC DRY INDICES
USD/AUS VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2001 ‐ 2011
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
US$‐AU$BDI
EUR/USD VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2001 ‐ 2011
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Eur‐US$BDI
USD/AUS VS BALTIC CAPE INDEX 2001 ‐ 2011
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
US$‐AU$BCI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 3 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FINANCIAL INDICES VS BALTIC DRY INDICES
CRB INDEX VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2002 ‐ 2011
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
CRB Index (Reuters‐Jefferies)BDI
S&P500 VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2003 ‐ 2011
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
S&P500BDI
DOW INDUSTRIAL VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2003 ‐ 2011
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
DOW‐IndBDI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 4 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS COMMODITY PRICES
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 1987 ‐ 2011
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Brent Oil
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 2005 ‐ 2011
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Brent Oil
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 1987 ‐ 2011
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
WTI Spot Price
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 2005 ‐ 2011
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
WTI Spot Price
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 5 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS COMMODITY PRICES
GOLD PRICE PER OUNCE 1970 ‐ 2011
20
220
420
620
820
1020
1220
1420
Jan‐70
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Gold
GOLD PRICE PER OUNCE 2005 ‐ 2011
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Gold
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 6 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES & IMF GDP GROWTH
BALTIC DRY INDEX (AVERAGE LINES) 1985 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
BDI
BDI Average from 2004 ‐ today is 4220 points
BDI Average from 1985 ‐ today is 2130 points
BDI Average from 1985 ‐ 2003 is 1358 points
BALTIC DRY INDEX VS GDP GROWTH 1980 ‐ 2015
‐5
0
5
10
15
198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
‐2000
‐1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
World Major advanced economies (G7) Developing Asia
India China, People's Republic of Emerging and developing economies
European Union BDI Annual average
BALTIC DRY INDEX 1999 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
May‐99
Sep‐99
Jan‐00
May‐00
Sep‐00
Jan‐01
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
BDI
SOURCE: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 7 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES
BALTIC CAPE INDEX 1999 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
12400
14400
16400
18400
May‐99
Sep‐99
Jan‐00
May‐00
Sep‐00
Jan‐01
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
BCI
BALTIC CAPE INDEX 2002 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
12400
14400
16400
18400
Apr‐02
Jul‐02
Oct‐02
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
BCI
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX 1999 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
May‐99
Sep‐99
Jan‐00
May‐00
Sep‐00
Jan‐01
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
BPI
S&P500 VS BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX 2007 ‐ 2011
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Dec‐07
Jan‐08
Feb‐08
Mar‐08
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐1500
500
2500
4500
6500
8500
10500
12500
S&P500BPI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 8 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES
BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX 2006 ‐ 2011
400
1400
2400
3400
4400
5400
6400
7400
Apr‐06
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
BSI
BALTIC HANDYMAX INDEX 2006 ‐ 2011
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
BHI
S&P500 VS BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX 2007 ‐ 2011
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Dec‐07
Jan‐08
Feb‐08
Mar‐08
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
S&P500BSI
S&P500 VS BALTIC HANDYMAX INDEX 2007 ‐ 2011
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Dec‐07
Jan‐08
Feb‐08
Mar‐08
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
S&P500BHI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 9 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES
BDI vs WORLD TRADE VOLUME 2003 ‐ 2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Oct‐02
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
WORLD TRADE FIGURES JUST RELEASED IN DEC 2010 COVERING UP TO OCT 2010.
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
BDI ‐ MONTHLY AVGWT VOLUME
SOURCE: International Monetary Fund
CRB INDEX (REUTERS‐JEFFERIES) VS BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX 2008 ‐ 2011
180
230
280
330
380
430
480
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐500
1500
3500
5500
7500
9500
11500
CRB Index (Reuters‐Jefferies)BPI
CRB INDEX (REUTERS‐JEFFERIES) VS BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX 2008 ‐ 2011
180
230
280
330
380
430
480
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐500
500
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
6500
7500CRB Index (Reuters‐Jefferies)BSI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 10 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC INDICESBALTIC DRY BULK INDICES BLOW UP FOR 2010
BALTIC TANKER INDICES BLOW UP FOR 2010
BDI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BDI
BCI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BCI
BPI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BPI
BSI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BSI
BHI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BHI
BCTI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BCTI
BDTI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BDTI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 11 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC INDICES
BALTIC CLEAN TANKER INDEX 1998 ‐ 2011
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
BCTI
BALTIC CLEAN TANKER INDEX VS BRENT CRUDE OIL 2007 ‐ 2011
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
Jul‐07
Sep‐07
Nov‐07
Jan‐08
Mar‐08
May‐08
Jul‐08
Sep‐08
Nov‐08
Jan‐09
Mar‐09
May‐09
Jul‐09
Sep‐09
Nov‐09
Jan‐10
Mar‐10
May‐10
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Nov‐10
Jan‐11
30.00
50.00
70.00
90.00
110.00
130.00
150.00
BCTIBrent Oil
BALTIC DIRTY TANKER INDEX 1998 ‐ 2011
400
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
BDTI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 12 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS CAPITAL LINK INDICES
ALL CAPITAL LINK INDICES (CLI'S) USED WITH THE EXPRESS PERMISSION OF CAPITAL LINK INC - NEW YORK
BALTIC DRY INDEX VS CAPITAL LINK DRYBULK INDEX 2005 ‐2011
200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CL Drybulk Index (CLDBI)
BDI
CAPITAL LINK DRYBULK INDEX (CLDBI) 2005 ‐2011
200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Drybulk Index (CLDBI)
CAPITAL LINK MARITIME INDEX (CLMI) 2005 ‐2011
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
4200
4700
5200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Maritime Index (CLMI)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 13 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS CAPITAL LINK INDICES
ALL CAPITAL LINK INDICES (CLI'S) USED WITH THE EXPRESS PERMISSION OF CAPITAL LINK INC - NEW YORK
CAPITAL LINK TANKER INDEX (CLTI) 2005 ‐2011
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Tanker Index (CLTI)
CAPITAL LINK CONTAINER INDEX (CLCI) 2005 ‐2011
400
1400
2400
3400
4400
5400
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Container Index (CLCI)
CAPITAL LINK LNG/LPG INDEX (CLLG) 2005 ‐2011
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL LNG/LPG Index (CLLG)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 14 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS CAPITAL LINK INDICES
ALL CAPITAL LINK INDICES (CLI'S) USED WITH THE EXPRESS PERMISSION OF CAPITAL LINK INC - NEW YORK
The Index Composition is as follows:
The Capital Link Maritime Index is comprised of all 44 companies currently listed on the U.S. Exchanges. In terms of historic data, as of January 1, 2005, companies which were listed in the past and got delisted at some point
of time, have been included in the Maritime Index and the sector indices for the period they were listed.
The Capital Link Dry Bulk Index contains the following 15 companies: Baltic Trading Limited (NYSE: BALT), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS), Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (NASDAQ: EGLE), , Excel Maritime
Carriers Ltd (NYSE: EXM), Freeseas Inc. (NASDAQ: FREE), Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM), OceanFreight Inc. (NASDAQ: OCNF), Paragon Shipping
(NASDAQ: PRGN), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Seanergy Maritime Holdings (NASDAQ: SHIP), Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NASDAQ: SBLK), and TBS International Plc (NASDAQ: TBSI).
The Capital Link Tanker Index is comprised of the following 19 companies: B & H Ocean Carriers (NYSE: BHO), Capital Product Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP), Crude Carriers Corp. (NYSE:CRU), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Frontline
Ltd (NYSE: FRO), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), Knightsbridge Tankers, Ltd(NASDAQ: VLCCF), NewLead Holdings, Ltd (NASDAQ: NEWL), Nordic American (NYSE: NAT), Omega Navigation (NASDAQ: ONAV), Overseas
Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG), Ship Finance Intl. (NYSE: SFL), Teekay Offshore Partners (NYSE: TOO), Teekay Shipping (NYSE: TK), Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK), Top Ships (NASDAQ: TOPS), Torm
A/S (NASDAQ: TRMD), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP).
The Capital Link Container Index in is comprised of the following 6 companies: Alexander & Baldwin (NYSE: ALEX), Danaos Corp. (NYSE: DAC), Euroseas Ltd. (NASDAQ: ESEA), Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL), Horizon Lines Inc.
(NYSE: HRZ) and Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW).
The Capital Link LNG / LPG Index is comprised of the following 3 companies: Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG), StealthGas Inc. (NASDAQ: GASS) and Teekay LNG (NYSE: TGP)
The Capital Link Mixed Fleet Index is comprised of the following 6 companies: Euroseas Ltd. (NADAQ: ESEA), B & H Ocean Carriers (NYSE: BHO), NewLead Holdings, Ltd (NASDAQ: NEWL), OceanFreight Inc. (NASDAQ: OCNF),
Ship Finance Intl. (NYSE: SFL) and Top Ships (NASDAQ: TOPS).
The Capital Link Maritime MLP Index is comprised of the following 5 companies: Capital Product Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP), Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM), OSG America LP (NYSE: OSP), Teekay LNG (NYSE: TGP) and
Teekay Offshore Partners (NASDAQ: TOO).
CAPITAL LINK MIXED FLEET INDEX (CLMFI) 2005 ‐2011
400
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Mixed Fleet Index (CLMFI)
CAPITAL LINK MLP INDEX (CLMLP) 2005 ‐2011
300
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Mixed Fleet Index (CLMFI)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 15 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO SHIP VALUES
DRY CARGO NEWBUILDING PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$15
$25
$35
$45
$55
$65
$75
$85
$95
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
DRY CARGO 5 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$10
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 16 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO SHIP VALUES
DRY CARGO 10 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
DRY CARGO 15 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
DRY CARGO 20 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 17 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS TANKER SHIP VALUES
TANKER NEWBUILDING PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
TANKER 5 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 18 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS TANKER SHIP VALUES
TANKER 10 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
TANKER 15 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
$90
$105
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
TANKER 20 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$8
$15
$23
$30
$38
$45
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 19 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO T/C EARNINGS
CAPESIZE 250‐130,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPESIZE 250‐130,000DWT
POST PANAMAX 129‐88,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
POST PANAMAX 129‐88,000DWT
KAMSARMAX 86‐80,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 2008 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
KAMSARMAX 86‐80,000DWT
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 20 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO T/C EARNINGS
SUPRAMAX 60‐50,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
SUPRAMAX 60‐50,000DWT
HANDYMAX 50‐40,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
HANDYMAX 50‐40,000DWT
PANAMAX 80‐60,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 2008 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
PANAMAX 80‐60,000DWT
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 21 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO T/C EARNINGS
HANDIES 40‐30,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
HANDIES 40‐30,000DWT
BULK CARRIERS 30‐12,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$3,000
$13,000
$23,000
$33,000
$43,000
$53,000
$63,000
$73,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
SMALL BULKERS 30‐12,000DWT
12 MOS T/C CAPESIZE (2003‐2011)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C CAPESIZE
12 MOS T/C PANAMAX (2003‐2011)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C PANAMAX
12 MOS T/C SUPRAMAX (2003‐2011)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C SUPRAMAX
12 MOS T/C 49‐40,000 HMAX (2003‐2011)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C 49‐40,000 HMAX
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 22 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS LISTED SHIPPING COMPANIESDRY BULK LISTED CO'S
BALTIC TRADING (BALT)
789101112131415
Apr‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BALTIC TRADING (BALT)
DIANA SHIPPING (DSX)
0
10
20
30
40
50
May‐05
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
DIANA SHIPPING (DSX)
DRY SHIPS (DRYS)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
DRY SHIPS (DRYS)
EAGLE BULK SHIPPING (EGLE)
0
510
1520
25
3035
40
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
EAGLE BULK SHIPPING (EGLE)
EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS (EXM)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aug‐00
Feb‐01
Aug‐01
Feb‐02
Aug‐02
Feb‐03
Aug‐03
Feb‐04
Aug‐04
Feb‐05
Aug‐05
Feb‐06
Aug‐06
Feb‐07
Aug‐07
Feb‐08
Aug‐08
Feb‐09
Aug‐09
Feb‐10
Aug‐10
Feb‐11
EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS (EXM)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 23 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS LISTED SHIPPING COMPANIESDRY BULK LISTED CO'S
FREE SEAS (FREE)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
FREE SEAS (FREE)
GENCO SHIPPING AND TRADING (GNK)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
GENCO SHIPPING AND TRADING (GNK)
NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS (NM)
0
5
10
15
20
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS (NM)
NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS (NMM)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS (NMM)
PARAGON SHIPPING INC (PRGN)
3
4
4
5
5
6
Apr‐10
Apr‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
May‐10
May‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jun‐10
Jun‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Jul‐10
Jul‐10
Jul‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Aug‐10
Aug‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Sep‐10
Sep‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Oct‐10
Oct‐10
Oct‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Nov‐10
Nov‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Dec‐10
Dec‐10
Dec‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐11
Jan‐11
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
PARAGON SHIPPING INC (PRGN)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 24 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS LISTED SHIPPING COMPANIESDRY BULK LISTED CO'S
SAFE BULKERS INC (SB)
2
7
12
17
22
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
SAFE BULKERS INC (SB)
SEANERGY INC (SHIP)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
SEANERGY INC (SHIP)
STAR BULK CARRIERS(SBLK)
024681012141618
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
STAR BULK CARRIERS(SBLK)
TBS INTERNATIONAL (TBSI)
0
1020
3040
50
6070
80
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
TBS INTERNATIONAL (TBSI)
GLOBUS MARITIME LTD (GLBS.L)
3
103
203
303
403
503
603
703
803
Jul‐07
Sep‐07
Nov‐07
Jan‐08
Mar‐08
May‐08
Jul‐08
Sep‐08
Nov‐08
Jan‐09
Mar‐09
May‐09
Jul‐09
Sep‐09
Nov‐09
Jan‐10
Mar‐10
May‐10
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Nov‐10
Jan‐11
GLOBUS MARITIME LTD (GLBS.L)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 25 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS LISTED SHIPPING COMPANIESTANKER LISTED CO'S
AEGEAN MARINE PETROLEUM (ANW)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
AEGEAN MARINE PETROLEUM (ANW)
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS (CPLP)
3
8
13
18
23
28
33
38
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS (CPLP)
CRUDE CARRIERS (CRU)
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Mar‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
CRUDE CARRIERS (CRU)
GENERAL MARITIME (GMR)
3
8
13
18
23
28
33
38
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
GENERAL MARITIME (GMR)
OMEGA NAVIGATION (ONAV)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
OMEGA NAVIGATION (ONAV)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 26 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS LISTED SHIPPING COMPANIESTANKER LISTED CO'S
TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION (TNP)
38131823
28333843
Jun‐02
Oct‐02
Feb‐03
Jun‐03
Oct‐03
Feb‐04
Jun‐04
Oct‐04
Feb‐05
Jun‐05
Oct‐05
Feb‐06
Jun‐06
Oct‐06
Feb‐07
Jun‐07
Oct‐07
Feb‐08
Jun‐08
Oct‐08
Feb‐09
Jun‐09
Oct‐09
Feb‐10
Jun‐10
Oct‐10
Feb‐11
TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION (TNP)
TOP SHIPS INC (TOPS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aug‐04
Oct‐04
Dec‐04
Feb‐05
Apr‐05
Jun‐05
Aug‐05
Oct‐05
Dec‐05
Feb‐06
Apr‐06
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
TOP SHIPS INC (TOPS)
STEALTHGAS (GASS)
2
7
12
17
22
Feb‐06
Apr‐06
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
STEALTHGAS (GASS)
EUROSEAS (ESEA)
3
8
13
18
23
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
EUROSEAS (ESEA)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 27 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS SCRAP STATISTICS
SCRAP STATISTICS FOR 2011
STATISTICS BULKERS / SDTANK/
OBO/GASCONT/
TWEEN/MPP REEFERRORO PAX
CRUISE, OTHERVEHICLES CARRIERS
TRAWLER TUG OTHER TOTAL
39 18 6 3 2 1 3 72 SHIPS
54.2% 25.0% 8.3% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 4.2% 100.0%
392,985 198,363 40,016 17,408 24,254 3,846 0 676,872 LDT
2,120,878 903,282 110,086 24,551 28,443 5,375 17,204 3,209,819 DWT
$191,874,213 $82,327,844 $14,776,891 $8,391,060 $12,096,502 $1,788,390 $0 $311,254,900
31.2 Years 30.2 Years 27.5 Years 27.7 Years 32.5 Years 36.0 Years 41.3 Years 32.3 Years
DWT
USD
AVERAGE AGE
STATISTICS
UNITS
%
LDT
SHIPS SCRAPPED VS AVERAGE SCRAP PRICE 2005 ‐ 2011
13161921
11
0
1618
105
127
1715
24
18201717161711
19
2929
2116
25
131716
1310
17
23
812
21
1419221924
50
27
39
73
79
112
129125
95
101
75
91
125
134
63
94
62
116
104
130
144
115
90
78
9597
7270
98
118
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan‐05
Mar‐05
May‐05
Jul‐05
Sep‐05
Nov‐05
Jan‐06
Mar‐06
May‐06
Jul‐06
Sep‐06
Nov‐06
Jan‐07
Mar‐07
May‐07
Jul‐07
Sep‐07
Nov‐07
Jan‐08
Mar‐08
May‐08
Jul‐08
Sep‐08
Nov‐08
Jan‐09
Mar‐09
May‐09
Jul‐09
Sep‐09
Nov‐09
Jan‐10
Mar‐10
May‐10
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Nov‐10
Jan‐11
‐10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Average Scrap Price No SHIPS SCRAPPED
SCRAPPED UNITS PER BREAKER 2010
7
48
22 3
CHINA
INDIA
BANGLADESH
TURKEY
PAKISTAN
SCRAPPED DWT PER BREAKER FOR 2010
533,363
1,972,884
272,2032,220224,978
CHINA
INDIA
BANGLADESH
TURKEY
PAKISTAN
SCRAPPED LDT PER BREAKER FOR 2010
92,008
463,879
40,241040,729
CHINA
INDIA
BANGLADESH
TURKEY
PAKISTAN
BREAKER AVERAGE SCRAP PRICE 2010
$454
$501
$502
$301
$485
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
CHINA
INDIA
BANGLADESH
TURKEY
PAKISTAN
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 28 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS SCRAP STATISTICS
2011 UNITS DWT LDT average 2010 UNITS DWT LDT average
January 72 3,209,819 676,872 $475.88 January 116 3,970,586 1,005,349 $352.15
February 0 0 0 $0.00 February 104 2,616,428 735,515 $345.07
March 0 0 0 $0.00 March 130 4,383,787 1,024,814 $372.43
April 0 0 0 $0.00 April 144 2,633,552 755,621 $438.62
May 0 0 0 $0.00 May 118 2,220,515 577,092 $399.32
June 0 0 0 $0.00 June 115 2,155,588 680,895 $373.05
July 0 0 0 $0.00 July 70 2,146,424 534,476 $393.31
August 0 0 0 $0.00 August 98 2,660,106 631,944 $399.71
September 0 0 0 $0.00 September 90 1,560,615 399,487 $455.19
October 0 0 0 $0.00 October 78 1,763,994 428,923 $402.03
November 0 0 0 $0.00 November 95 2,196,223 447,776 $430.57
December 0 0 0 $0.00 December 97 2,903,408 532,374 $426.13
TOTAL 72 3,209,819 676,872 $475.88 TOTAL 1255 31,211,226 7,754,266 $398.97
2009 UNITS DWT LDT average 2008 UNITS DWT LDT average
January 111 3,946,063 1,015,297 $261.06 January 12 388,342 122,447 $588.83
February 128 3,262,288 1,010,506 $254.94 February 21 677,297 188,738 $578.95
March 125 4,026,526 1,124,545 $276.00 March 14 819,969 189,012 $671.81
April 98 2,254,176 735,192 $259.22 April 19 817,093 227,528 $688.33
May 103 3,053,179 951,150 $232.66 May 22 455,209 153,062 $684.71
June 81 1,716,548 563,478 $256.49 June 19 635,947 195,618 $712.33
July 101 2,141,662 749,534 $250.35 July 24 750,536 198,110 $654.44
August 132 3,421,243 1,087,949 $290.99 August 50 644,377 248,313 $698.68
September 172 3,362,542 857,077 $306.38 September 27 622,793 229,556 $574.29
October 92 2,444,187 521,585 $299.89 October 39 1,070,552 286,064 $364.44
November 125 3,137,987 779,893 $313.19 November 73 3,479,637 762,280 $237.98
December 100 2,345,403 636,384 $311.63 December 82 2,418,513 700,038 $257.80
TOTAL 1368 35,111,804 10,032,590 $276.07 TOTAL 402 12,780,265 3,500,766 $559.38
2007 UNITS DWT LDT average 2006 UNITS DWT LDT average
January 29 707,496 183,790 $460.50 January 17 297,498 130,067 $332.12
February 21 746,256 184,078 $444.00 February 15 568,692 126,099 $306.00
March 16 390,362 107,585 $410.50 March 24 989,715 242,218 $319.82
April 25 896,724 254,673 $439.25 April 18 776,470 172,298 $361.50
May 13 446,308 126,539 $476.57 May 20 1,024,675 219,052 $352.35
June 17 346,816 118,978 $453.14 June 17 297,235 89,878 $376.33
July 16 430,191 105,861 $567.54 July 17 346,718 112,393 $315.71
August 13 400,320 127,092 $525.22 August 16 581,341 146,962 $393.50
September 10 150,660 51,187 $461.10 September 17 464,982 128,705 $353.15
October 17 287,398 87,442 $492.50 October 11 262,318 85,757 $391.10
November 23 427,000 149,569 $590.00 November 19 298,048 114,496 $412.79
December 8 215,941 79,678 $536.14 December 29 883,615 235,774 $460.45
TOTAL 208 5,445,472 1,576,472 $488.04 TOTAL 220 6,791,307 1,803,699 $364.57
SCRAP STATISTICS 2006 ‐ 2011
SCRAP STATS UNITS SCRAPPED VS DWT REMOVED
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan‐05
Feb‐05
Mar‐05
Apr‐05
May‐05
Jun‐05
Jul‐05
Aug‐05
Sep‐05
Oct‐05
Nov‐05
Dec‐05
Jan‐06
Feb‐06
Mar‐06
Apr‐06
May‐06
Jun‐06
Jul‐06
Aug‐06
Sep‐06
Oct‐06
Nov‐06
Dec‐06
Jan‐07
Feb‐07
Mar‐07
Apr‐07
May‐07
Jun‐07
Jul‐07
Aug‐07
Sep‐07
Oct‐07
Nov‐07
Dec‐07
Jan‐08
Feb‐08
Mar‐08
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
0
500,0001,000,000
1,500,0002,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,0003,500,000
4,000,0004,500,000
5,000,000
NUMBER DWT
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 29 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS SHIPSALE STATISTICS
DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL
74 39 113 $1,107.00m $918.57m $2,025.57m 3,152,258 3,008,897 6,161,155
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
0 0 0 $0.00m $0.00m $0.00m 0 0 0
74 39 113 $1,107.00m $918.57m $2,025.57m 3,152,258 3,008,897 6,161,155
DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL
84 57 141 $1,297.44m $1,096.58m $2,394.02m 3,952,288 3,446,410 7,398,698
82 33 115 $1,383.07m $691.20m $2,074.27m 3,896,685 2,470,891 6,367,576
161 37 198 $3,531.12m $608.05m $4,139.17m 7,367,244 2,798,832 10,166,076
71 37 108 $1,087.61m $1,085.30m $2,172.91m 3,404,042 2,768,206 6,172,248
72 45 117 $1,118.90m $1,729.10m $2,848.00m 3,049,222 5,133,688 8,182,910
78 17 95 $1,929.87m $578.62m $2,508.49m 3,993,116 1,607,662 5,600,778
55 22 77 $1,203.85m $831.15m $2,035.00m 2,195,442 3,225,816 5,421,258
59 34 93 $946.55m $735.65m $1,682.20m 2,032,205 1,972,639 4,004,844
73 26 99 $1,349.85m $2,492.95m $3,842.80m 2,981,538 2,203,927 5,185,465
91 45 136 $1,715.88m $835.11m $2,550.99m 3,992,290 4,361,913 8,354,203
81 44 125 $1,405.34m $1,086.90m $2,492.24m 3,816,394 3,038,609 6,855,003
81 29 110 $1,450.08m $714.45m $2,164.53m 3,232,452 2,476,263 5,708,715
988 426 1414 $18,419.56m $12,485.05m $30,904.61m 43,912,918 35,504,856 79,417,774
DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL
79 39 118 $2,026.84m $1,464.90m $3,491.74m 2,073,460 3,163,865 5,237,325
77 49 126 $1,338.90m $1,503.70m $2,842.60m 2,018,746 4,031,251 6,049,997
83 48 131 $2,675.29m $1,669.30m $4,344.59m 3,271,135 3,881,364 7,152,499
95 48 143 $3,950.28m $1,660.30m $5,610.58m 3,421,893 2,787,674 6,209,567
110 43 153 $3,615.32m $1,434.95m $5,050.27m 4,080,053 2,920,540 7,000,593
96 45 141 $2,660.05m $1,715.15m $4,375.20m 3,356,104 3,083,588 6,439,692
74 42 116 $2,171.78m $1,813.20m $3,984.98m 2,706,820 4,196,783 6,903,603
52 37 89 $1,339.98m $1,029.59m $2,369.57m 1,836,029 2,431,539 4,267,568
71 23 94 $1,602.45m $547.05m $2,149.50m 2,532,706 811,596 3,344,302
33 15 48 $809.31m $212.50m $1,021.81m 1,272,809 520,102 1,792,911
44 23 67 $567.30m $825.15m $1,392.45m 2,027,520 1,351,127 3,378,647
42 11 53 $350.87m $465.70m $816.57m 1,457,264 941,843 2,399,107
856 423 1279 $23,108.38m $14,341.49m $37,449.86m 30,054,539 30,121,272 60,175,811
AUGUST
CAPITAL OUTLAY DWT SOLD2011
SECONDHAND SALE STATISTICS 2005 ‐ 2010
MAY
JUNE
JULY
2011 - VESSELS SOLD
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MONTH
UNITS SOLD
SEPTEMBER
MONTH
JANUARY
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
TOTAL 2011
2010 - VESSELS SOLD2010 UNITS SOLD CAPITAL OUTLAY DWT SOLD
TOTAL 2009
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
2009 - VESSELS SOLD2009 UNITS SOLD CAPITAL OUTLAY
JANUARY
DWT SOLD
MONTH
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
MAY
TOTAL 2009
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 30 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS SHIPSALE STATISTICS
DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL
79 39 118 $2,026.84m $1,464.90m $3,491.74m 2,073,460 3,163,865 5,237,325
77 49 126 $1,338.90m $1,503.70m $2,842.60m 2,018,746 4,031,251 6,049,997
83 48 131 $2,675.29m $1,669.30m $4,344.59m 3,271,135 3,881,364 7,152,499
95 48 143 $3,950.28m $1,660.30m $5,610.58m 3,421,893 2,787,674 6,209,567
110 43 153 $3,615.32m $1,434.95m $5,050.27m 4,080,053 2,920,540 7,000,593
96 45 141 $2,660.05m $1,715.15m $4,375.20m 3,356,104 3,083,588 6,439,692
74 42 116 $2,171.78m $1,813.20m $3,984.98m 2,706,820 4,196,783 6,903,603
52 37 89 $1,339.98m $1,029.59m $2,369.57m 1,836,029 2,431,539 4,267,568
71 23 94 $1,602.45m $547.05m $2,149.50m 2,532,706 811,596 3,344,302
33 15 48 $809.31m $212.50m $1,021.81m 1,272,809 520,102 1,792,911
44 23 67 $567.30m $825.15m $1,392.45m 2,027,520 1,351,127 3,378,647
42 11 53 $350.87m $465.70m $816.57m 1,457,264 941,843 2,399,107
856 423 1279 $23,108.38m $14,341.49m $37,449.86m 30,054,539 30,121,272 60,175,811
DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL
107 56 163 $1,918.17m $947.30m $2,865.47m 4,339,475 2,525,167 6,864,642
82 50 132 $2,415.84m $1,048.25m $3,464.09m 4,321,835 2,891,251 7,213,086
108 31 139 $2,330.15m $789.55m $3,119.70m 4,558,081 2,165,966 6,724,047
122 50 172 $3,709.65m $1,478.00m $5,187.65m 7,205,104 3,221,021 10,426,125
137 61 198 $3,051.04m $2,133.75m $5,184.79m 4,894,983 4,757,574 9,652,557
108 70 178 $2,030.60m $2,338.37m $4,368.97m 3,369,782 5,165,416 8,535,198
163 34 197 $5,790.40m $1,430.55m $7,220.95m 8,463,283 2,520,864 10,984,147
84 36 120 $2,823.13m $1,021.75m $3,844.88m 3,755,816 2,668,848 6,424,664
77 46 123 $2,051.65m $1,386.85m $3,438.50m 3,172,253 2,991,438 6,163,691
141 67 208 $4,315.81m $1,837.00m $6,152.81m 5,319,934 4,198,224 9,518,158
145 40 185 $4,509.41m $1,214.55m $5,723.96m 6,035,362 2,614,259 8,649,621
66 56 122 $1,529.43m $2,828.80m $4,358.23m 1,889,853 7,295,600 9,185,453
1340 597 1937 $36,475.28m $18,454.72m $54,930.00m 57,325,761 43,015,628 100,341,389
DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL DRY WET TOTAL
67 46 113 $915.92m $1,752.35m $2,668.27m 2,157,524 4,867,107 7,024,631
68 48 116 $1,886.55m $1,689.43m $3,575.98m 3,715,192 3,580,338 7,295,530
75 69 144 $1,190.65m $2,516.33m $3,706.98m 3,587,131 5,346,521 8,933,652
57 31 88 $685.40m $915.20m $1,600.60m 2,040,481 1,662,012 3,702,493
110 58 168 $2,789.55m $922.10m $3,711.65m 5,720,170 2,034,387 7,754,557
115 35 150 $1,889.17m $854.55m $2,743.72m 4,166,463 1,206,691 5,373,154
80 26 106 $1,246.48m $615.30m $1,861.78m 3,272,657 1,440,814 4,713,471
112 44 156 $2,163.89m $1,926.60m $4,090.49m 4,743,047 3,550,390 8,293,437
80 47 127 $1,747.32m $1,607.05m $3,354.37m 3,876,045 3,171,331 7,047,376
88 37 125 $1,743.89m $1,168.45m $2,912.34m 3,696,441 3,653,844 7,350,285
104 26 130 $1,965.75m $680.55m $2,646.30m 3,224,100 1,267,516 4,491,616
104 43 147 $2,068.77m $1,020.25m $3,089.02m 4,745,371 3,316,483 8,061,854
1060 510 1570 $20,293.34m $15,668.16m $35,961.50m 44,944,622 35,097,434 80,042,056
SEPTEMBER
2008 - VESSELS SOLD2008 UNITS SOLD CAPITAL OUTLAY DWT SOLD
SECONDHAND SALE STATISTICS 2005 ‐ 2010
MONTH
NOVEMBER
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
JANUARY
2006 - VESSELS SOLD
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
TOTAL 2008
UNITS SOLD CAPITAL OUTLAY DWT SOLD2006
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
2007 - VESSELS SOLD2007 UNITS SOLD CAPITAL OUTLAY DWT SOLD
MONTH
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
TOTAL 2007
FEBRUARY
MONTH
DECEMBER
TOTAL 2006
JUNE
JULY
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 31 of 31