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Page 1: Genus Power Infrastructures Dec 04, 2017 - HDFC … PCG - Pick...4 | P a g e Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA Dec 04, 2017 Smart Meters - the way forward Advanced Metering
Page 2: Genus Power Infrastructures Dec 04, 2017 - HDFC … PCG - Pick...4 | P a g e Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA Dec 04, 2017 Smart Meters - the way forward Advanced Metering

1 | P a g e

Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Recommendation

Buy at CMP and add on Dips

Add on dips to

Rs. 55-63

Targets

Rs. 89

Time Horizon

4 - 6 Quarters

Industry

Electricals

CMP

Rs. 63

Company Background

Genus Power Infrastructure, a Kailash group company is one of the largest player in the domestic electric metering

market. Company has great brand image in designing, manufacturing and execution of Static Energy Meters and

Metering Installations Projects for transmission & distribution network. The company manufactures various ranges

of high‐end programmable multi‐functional intelligent Single Phase & Three Phase Electronic Meters with in‐built

advanced security and anti‐tamper features such as AMR (Automatic Meter Reader) enabled Meters, Audit Meters,

etc. Genus provides customized and complete solution of Engineering, Construction and Contracts (ECC) for power

T&D sector. The ECC business undertakes turnkey power projects, such as sub‐station erection up to 420 kilovolts

(kV), laying up of transmission and distribution lines, rural electrification, switchyards and network refurbishment.

Company provides range of services for projects, which include construction, setting up transmission towers,

execution of civil work, laying of cables/conductor and installation of transformers.

Investment Rationale

Genus Power Infrastructures is the largest player in the domestic electric metering segment with 27% market

share and installation base of 38mn units. Post the FY17 blip, domestic metering market is expected to bounce

back stronger over the next three years even as DISCOMS work towards reducing AT&C losses to meet UDAY

targets. Further, demand for smart meters is expected to jump multifold as AMI would be integral to the creation

of smart grids. Genus has ~70% market share in smart meter which gives significant edge to the company. ECC

business is also expected to turnaround as execution picks up in two large projects. The above factors would

collectively lead to revenue CAGR of 20% over FY17‐20. Margins are expected to expand 140bps over the said

span with strong growth in metering volumes, higher share of smart meters and turnaround in ECC business. We

believe valuations are attractive at ~14x FY20E EPS with earnings CAGR of 22% over FY17‐20E. We recommend

BUY on Genus Power at CMP of Rs 63 and add on dips to Rs 55 with TP of Rs.89 (~20x FY20E EPS ).

One of the market leaders in a consolidated industry

Genus Power Infrastructure is one of the market leaders in the metering solutions business with an installed base

of 38 mn units of meters in India and abroad. The company’s manufacturing infrastructure and R&D facility enables

it to come out with efficient and robust products that meet the requirement of Indian conditions. The metering

industry is largely B2B in nature with utilities being the prime customers. Genus has over the years established

strong credentials and relationships with various power utilities. Industry structure is favourable with limited

presence of imports and unorganized sector. Indian electricity meter market is estimated to be Rs 3000cr as on

FY16, which is projected to grow ~11% over FY16-20. With 80% of the market share with organized players such

as Genus Power, HPL Electric and Power, L&T and Secure Meters.

Kushal Rughani

[email protected]

HDFC Scrip Code GENPOW

BSE Code 530343

NSE Code GENUSPOW

ER

Bloomberg GPIN

CMP as on 01 Dec-17 63

Equity Capital (Rs cr) 25.7

Face Value (Rs) 1

Equity O/S (cr) 25.7

Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1620

Book Value (Rs) 28

Avg. 52 Week Vol 1037788

52 Week High (Rs) 69

52 Week Low (Rs) 37

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 50.5

Institutions 9.6

Non Institutions 39.9

PCG Risk Rating*

RED

* Refer Rating explanation

Page 3: Genus Power Infrastructures Dec 04, 2017 - HDFC … PCG - Pick...4 | P a g e Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA Dec 04, 2017 Smart Meters - the way forward Advanced Metering

2 | P a g e

Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Strong demand drivers in place

The government’s Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme’s memorandum of understanding

(MoU) envisages all state DISCOMS turning around by fiscal 2019 or 2020. For operational efficiency

improvement, identification of areas where AT&C losses are high is critical so that corrective measures

can be taken. Thus, the role of feeder metering, distribution & transformer (DT) metering, and feeder

segregation become paramount. Herein, while most states have achieved high level of feeder metering,

the five top loss making state utilities (Rajasthan, UP, Bihar, J&K and Jharkhand) lag behind in feeder

separation and distribution transformer metering. With these five states signing up for UDAY scheme, we

expect momentum on rolling out the requisite infrastructure relating to loss reduction in the coming

years. In addition to this, there are government programmes like DDUGJY and IPDS that aim at

strengthening the sub-transmission and distribution sector through feeder metering and IT infrastructure.

Significant Opportunity – Smart Metering

Metering market has been steadily growing at 10-15% yoy over FY10-16. However, in FY17 it witnessed

sharp fall of 40% yoy following the disagreement between the State and Central government on the

procurement policy of metering instruments. We expect demand to be robust considering 25mn

unmetered connections, 54mn households are yet deprived of electricity and 25-30mn new connections

are expected to happen by 2020. Currently, ~27mn units of meters are under tender evaluation by

various utilities and expected to be awarded over the next six months.

Smart meters have significant potential in the medium to long term as government rolls out smart city

programme across India. India has 200 million legacy meters and there are plans to install up to 130

million smart meters by 2021. CESC had won smart power franchise contract in the city of Bharatpur and

Kota. Genus expects to win sizeable business from these cities (~Rs 100cr, 0.3 mn smart meter

opportunity). Deliveries are expected to start from H2 FY18 onwards. Since the realization on smart

meter is higher (Rs 3000-3500 per unit vs. Rs 700-800 per unit for electronic meters), this should also

have positive rub-off on margins.

Company has set up new manufacturing facility at Guwahati, Assam with total cost of Rs 17.9cr. It started

commercial production in Mar 2017. The plant will have tax holidays for 10 years.

Recently in Nov 2017, company won order for 13.5 Lakh smart meters worth ~Rs 453cr from EESL for

Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Supply for this order will start from Q1 FY19. Post this, total order book now

stands at ~Rs 1226cr. Metering orders at Rs 993cr and ECC at Rs 233cr which provides ~15 months

revenue visibility.

Key Highlights

Genus Power Infrastructures is the

largest player in the domestic electric

metering segment with 27% market share

and installation base of 38mn units.

Genus has ~70% market share in smart

meter which gives significant edge to the

company. ECC business is also expected

to turnaround as execution picks up in two

large projects.

Indian electricity meter market is

estimated to be Rs 3000cr as on FY16,

which is projected to grow ~11% over

FY16-20.

With 80% of the market share with

organized players such as Genus Power,

HPL Electric and Power, L&T and Secure

Meters.

Company has total order book of Rs 1226

cr which includes Metering orders of Rs

993cr and ECC at Rs 233cr which provides

~15 months revenue visibility.

Company has gross debt of Rs 180cr as on

Q2 FY18, down from Rs 220cr in FY17. It

also has sizeable cash and treasury

investments.

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Smart Meters - the way forward

Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) would be integral to the creation of smart grids as it is an efficient tool in monitoring and reducing

power theft in the distribution system. Government is also promoting installation of smart meters through various policy initiatives. Under

the UDAY scheme, just 1-2% of the overall target of 22.5mn smart meters has been installed so far, the reason being smart meters are

~5x costlier than normal meters. Overall, there are plans to install up to 130mn smart meters by 2021. To reduce burden on the dwindling

balance sheets of DISCOMs, centre is now planning to source smart meters through EESL for leasing them to state DISCOMs. The

government has recently launched global tender for procurement of 5mn units of smart meters, out of which Genus recently won order

worth Rs 453cr. Genus has 70% market share in domestic smart meters and is set to benefit from the huge increase in demand for smart

meter over the next three-five years.

ECC business execution to pick up

Genus provide customized and complete solution of Engineering, Construction and Contracts (ECC) for power T&D sector. Under the

turnkey ECC solutions, Genus offers Metering Solution, AT&C losses, Engineering & Construction from ‘concept to commissioning’ with

distinctive specialization in smart metering solution & advance metering infrastructure. In this division the company provides solutions for

switchyard/sub‐station up to 400kV, transmission lines up to 400kV, Rural Electrification and distribution lines. It also helps in restoration

and upgradation of existing system.

Contribution from this segment has been weak over the last two years on account of cost escalation and increase in execution cycle. Weak

execution coupled with high fixed costs led to operating loss in FY17. Management has mentioned that this division is expected to

turnaround in FY18 on the back of strong order book and faster execution. Genus focuses on selective ECC projects which gives better

profitability. Company believes, with utilities moving towards smart grid and government’s focus on rural electrification and feeder

separation, it is exploring better business opportunities going forward.

ECC business is expected to turnaround in FY18 led by execution of the two large orders. In FY17, lack of clearance at customer end led

to minimal execution and the company reported a loss at the operating level. The management expects execution to pick up from H2 FY18

as both projects have received clearances. ECC order book of Rs.233cr is expected to be executed over the next two years. We expect

~Rs.90cr revenues from this division in FY18 and Rs.105cr in FY19.

Demand Drivers

Government initiatives: Initiatives of the Government such the Deen Dayal Upadhaya Gram Jyoti Yojna (DDUGJY) and Integrated Power

Development Scheme (IPDS) are expected to give impetus to the meter market. Further, the UDAY scheme is expected to aid growth in

the power sector. The scope of work under these initiatives includes rural electrification, monitoring of distribution transformers, setting

up of new grid and substations and setting up of metering infrastructure.

GoI’s “Make in India” campaign and growth in renewables: Growth of the industrial segment is expected to drive demand for power,

thereby increasing demand for panel meters. Further, the increase in renewable energy generation has created a market for net meters

and availability based tariff meters. Additionally, advent of energy trading and feed-in tariff of renewable energy (currently at a nascent

stage) is also expected to create an additional market for meters in India.

Page 6: Genus Power Infrastructures Dec 04, 2017 - HDFC … PCG - Pick...4 | P a g e Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA Dec 04, 2017 Smart Meters - the way forward Advanced Metering

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

With decades of experience in meter industry, Genus is among the most trusted and one of the largest player. Smart Meter is indigenously

designed to capture energy consumption pattern, energy auditing, preventing energy thefts, implementing innovative tariff scheme and

facilitating secured communication and hacking identification.

Government schemes to improve availability of power and strengthen DISCOMs

Integrated Power Development Scheme (IPDS)

The objectives of scheme are:

Strengthening of sub-transmission and distribution networks in the urban areas

Metering of distribution transformers / feeders / consumers in the urban area

IT enablement of distribution sector and strengthening of distribution Network

Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY)

The objectives of scheme are:

Separation of agriculture and non-agriculture feeders

Strengthening of sub-transmission and distribution networks in the rural areas;

Metering of distribution transformers / feeders / consumers in the rural area.

Rural Electrification

GUMCO partnership

In Sep 2017, Genus Power Infrastructures has entered into an agreement with Global Utilities Management Co, (GUMCO), Nigeria to assist

them as a technical partner in the establishment of a Meter Assembling & Testing unit. The unit will cater to Nigerian market and also

cater to developing West African markets on case to case basis. Genus has also signed intent for order with GUMCO for supply of energy

meters worth Rs. 20cr as per specific requirement of local DISCOMs.

Global Utilities Management Company, (GUMCO) a member of VIGEO Group, is a wholly owned Nigerian Company that has strategic

relationship and experience of working in the utility sector within Nigeria and other African countries with similar power sector challenges.

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Strong Balance sheet and attractive valuations: Recommend BUY with TP of Rs 89

With the divestment of the “Power back-up” business in 2015, company is now focused play on the metering and to lesser extent ECC

business. Despite being in a working capital intensive business, company has managed to keep its borrowings in check which bodes well

for the company. The company has gross debt of Rs 180cr as on Q2 FY18, down from Rs 220cr during Q4 FY17. It also has sizeable cash

and treasury investments; so on net basis D/E comes to almost zero. After liquidating 20mn of treasury shares in FY16 to institutional

investors, the company still has treasury shares of 27.5mn in balance sheet.

Strong revenue visibility coupled with high earnings growth would lead to re-rating led by the strong execution in both the segments.

Company is expected to post an operating profit CAGR of 25% over FY17‐20E. Finance costs are expected to decline with a marginal

decrease in gross debt and lower interest costs. However, higher tax rate and lower other income would curtail the growth in PAT to 22%

CAGR over the same period. Company would stay under MAT over the next 5 to 7 years. We believe valuations are attractive at ~14x

FY20E EPS with earnings CAGR of 22% over FY17‐20E. The stock would witness re‐rating on the back of strong growth in the domestic

metering market which has been witnessed in power T&D EPC players over the last one year. We recommend BUY on Genus Power with

TP of Rs.89 (~20x FY20E EPS).

Risks

Delay in investments in capex cycle

Significant delay in smart meter ordering

Sharp increase in Raw Material Prices

Page 8: Genus Power Infrastructures Dec 04, 2017 - HDFC … PCG - Pick...4 | P a g e Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA Dec 04, 2017 Smart Meters - the way forward Advanced Metering

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Revenues to witness strong ~20% cagr over FY17-20E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

915 869 653 805 939 1154

19.6

-5.0

-24.9

23.3 16.6 23.0

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Total Income Growth %

EBITDA trend over FY17-20E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

123 124 87 109 134 170

25.7

0.4

-29.5

25.0 22.926.8

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

EBITDA EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

12.8

13.5

14.2

13.313.5

14.2

14.7

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Return Ratios (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

11.5

16.0

10.0 9.711.6

13.8

22.621.5

14.7 15.016.6

18.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

RoE RoCE

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Meter Industry to see ~11% cagr

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

FY16 FY20E

Metering Solutions revenues

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

561 590

806

628705

822

1013

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Orderbook Mix (Rs cr)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

993

233

Metering

ECC

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Income Statement (Consolidated)

(Rs Cr) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Net Revenue 915 869 653 805 939 1154

Other Income 12 26 30 25 27 28

Total Income 927 895 683 831 966 1183

Growth (%) 19.6 -5.0 -24.9 23.3 16.6 23.0

Operating Expenses 792 745 566 696 805 985

EBITDA 136 150 117 134 161 198

Growth (%) 25.7 0.4 -29.5 25.0 22.9 26.8

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.5 14.2 13.3 13.5 14.2 14.7

Depreciation 16 14 15 18 20 21

EBIT 120 136 102 117 141 177

Interest expenses 33 29 25 23 25 25

PBT 86 109 77 93 114 150

Tax 18 21 13 23 27 34

RPAT 68 89 65 67 87 113

Growth (%) -8.9 67.4 -29.0 8.6 29.8 28.8

EPS 2.1 3.4 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.4 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Balance Sheet

As at March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

SOURCE OF FUNDS

Share Capital 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7

Reserves 462 591 647 696 757 842

Shareholders' Funds 487 617 673 721 783 867

Long Term Debt 17 1 1 21 39 30

Net Deferred Taxes 7 7 0 0 0 0

Long Term Provisions & Others 18 8 6 8 18 28

Minority Interest 0 0 13 13 13 13

Total Source of Funds 530 632 692 763 851 938

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block (incl CWIP) 132 140 163 165 174 178

Deferred Tax Assets (net) 0 48 46 46 46 46

Long Term Loans & Advances 223 151 138 159 175 182

Total Non Current Assets 354 339 347 370 394 406

Current Investments 67 60 159 170 184 189

Inventories 156 118 116 130 153 174

Trade Receivables 400 415 331 351 396 468

Short term Loans & Advances 23 8 12 13 15 13

Cash & Equivalents 49 62 57 80 67 82

Other Current Assets 2 17 24 26 30 33

Total Current Assets 697 680 699 771 844 959

Short-Term Borrowings 333 215 219 206 191 179

Trade Payables 125 110 94 127 144 173

Other Current Liab & Provisions 63 52 46 50 53 64

Short-Term Provisions 18 1 3 5 8 11

Total Current Liabilities 539 378 362 388 395 426

Net Current Assets 157 302 337 383 449 531

Total Application of Funds 530 632 692 763 851 938 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Cash Flow Statement

(Rs Cr) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Reported PBT 71 109 77 92 116 150

Non-operating & EO items -12 -26 -30 -25 -27 -28

Interest Expenses 33 29 25 23 25 25

Depreciation 16 14 15 18 20 21

Working Capital Change 3 -105 -54 -25 -78 -74

Tax Paid -18 -21 -13 -23 -27 -34

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 93 0 21 59 29 59

Capex -22 43 -38 -20 -28 -25

Free Cash Flow 71 43 -17 39 1 34

Investments -36 24 15 -20 -16 -7

Non-operating income 12 26 30 25 27 28

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -46 93 7 -15 -17 -4

Debt Issuance / (Repaid) -13 -27 -8 22 28 1

Interest Expenses -33 -29 -25 -23 -25 -25

FCFE 25 -13 -50 39 4 10

Share Capital Issuance 0 0 13 0 0 0

Dividend -3 -7 -15 -20 -28 -38

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -49 -63 -35 -21 -25 -63

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) -2 30 -7 23 -14 -8 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Key Ratios

(Rs Cr) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

EBITDA Margin 13.5 14.2 13.3 13.5 14.2 14.7

EBIT Margin 13.1 15.6 15.6 14.2 15.1 15.2

APAT Margin 5.8 10.3 9.7 8.6 9.5 10.0

RoE 11.5 16.0 10.0 9.7 11.6 13.8

RoCE 22.6 21.5 14.7 15.0 16.6 18.7

Solvency Ratio

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.9 0.8 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4

D/E 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

Net D/E 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1

PER SHARE DATA

EPS 2.1 3.4 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.4

CEPS 2.7 4.0 3.1 3.3 4.1 5.2

BV 19 24 26 28 30 34

Dividend 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2

Turnover Ratios (days)

Debtor days 160 174 185 159 154 148

Inventory days 48 58 65 59 60 55

Creditors days 63 60 70 77 75 75

VALUATION

P/E 30.4 18.3 25.0 24.0 18.6 14.3

P/BV 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9

EV/EBITDA 14.4 14.4 20.4 16.3 13.3 10.5

EV / Revenues 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.5

Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9

Dividend Payout 4.8 5.8 17.9 24.8 26.6 27.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

Rating Chart

R E T U R N

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

BLUE LOW RISK - LOW RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 20% OR

MORE

YELLOW MEDIUM RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 35% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 35% OR

MORE

RED HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 50% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 30%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 50%

OR MORE

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Dec 04, 2017

Price Chart

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

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Genus Power Infrastructures INVESTMENT IDEA

Dec 04, 2017

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