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onnm onnm United Nations Environment ProgrammeGlobal Environment OutlookGEO4 environment for development 2007 . 2007, , . , . . : DCPI, UNEP, P.O. Box 30552, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya. - - , , . , , : http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/english/9701474e.htm . , , . , . , , . .The green dot is put on thedislclaimer page.The green dot statement has tobe adjusted for everypublication depending on thematerials used etc.:This publication is printed on100% chlorine and acid freepaper from sustainable forests.This publication is printed on100%recycled paper usingvegetable based inks and othereco-friendly practices.The circle is 76mm by 76mm The text is Myriad ProCondensed in whiteThe colour is Pantone 36880% -4 (ACSAD), , (AFRI), (AGU), (AIT), (API), (AUB), (BCAS), (IBAMA), - (CEU), (CEDARE), Centro de Investigaciones de la EconomaMundial (CIEM), Centro Latino Americano de Ecologa Social(CLAES), (CIESIN), , (CEC), (DA), - - (EAD)/ - (AGEDI), - (EEA), UNEP/GRID-Arendal, , , (IOC), (IGES), (IGCI), InternationalInstitute forEnvironment andDevelopment (IIED), (IISD), (IRF), , - (ISRIC), - (), - (KISR), (), (NEMA), (NIES), (MNP), (NESDA), -' (SCOPE), - (SIC), (IMERCSA) - - (SARDC), (SEPA), (SEI), , (TEI), (TERI), , (REC), (), , (-), Universidad del Pacfico, , - (OdD-UCR), - , , , -, (UWICED), -, WI , , iv , , : . , , 506-514. : -4 Centro de Investigaciones de la Economa Mundial (CIEM), Centro Latino Americano de Ecologa Social (CLAES), Universidad del Pacfico, (AIT), (DA), (AUB), (AFRI), (API), (ACSAD), (NESDA), - , (BCAS), (IBAMA), (NEMA), (SEPA), , (EEA), (IGES), , (TERI), , (IOC), (CEC), - (KISR), , (IGCI), (IIED), (IISD), - (ISRIC), (), - (), - (SIC), (SCOPE), (NIES), (MNP), , , (REC), (SEI), , (TEI), -, WI , -, (UWICED), - (OdD-UCR), - (), (AGU), , (IRF), , (CIESIN), , , (-), (CEDARE), (IMERCSA) - - (SARDC), - (CEU), , - - (EAD)/ - (AGEDI), -/ , v , , -4. (), (), - (), , , , , , , , , , , , , , , - () - , , , , , , , . , , , , , , , . , . . , . , , , . , , . , . , , , , , , , , , , , ', , , , . . , , , , , , , , -, , -, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . -, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ', , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , : -4 , , , : , , : Bounford.com UNEP/GRID-Arenda: , : Bounford.com : : , , -, , , , , , , , , , , 4vixvixviii xx A 1 3 B : 19872007 2 39 3 81 4 115 5 157 C : 19872007 6 195 D 7 : 301 8 : 361 E - 2015 9 397 F 10 - - 457 -4498 -4: 502 -4506 -4 515526 vii 1 1.1 9 1.2 , 18 1.3 20 1.4 21 1.5 22 1.6 , 22 1.7 - 24 1.8 27 1.9 (a) 1000 (b) 100 , 28 2 2.1 , 43 2.2 1000 . ( 2000)46 2.3 46 2.4 , 47 2.5 58 47 2.6 , , 48 2.7 2000 , 1052 2.8 (a) (b) , 52 2.9 (g/m3) 53 2.10 10 100 000 1999 53 2.11 2000 ., 54 2.12 , (a) (b) , 55 2.13 , 56 2.14 2007 .58 2.15 CO2 10 000 60 2.16 CO2 60 2.17 CO2 2003 .61 2.18 , XX , 61 2.19 2000-2005 62 2.20 63 2.21 64 2.22 400 CO2

( CO2 )66 2.23 69 2.24 70 2.25 1980 2100 .71 2.26 73 3 3.1 , 84 3.2 89 3.3 89 3.4 , 2005 .90 3.5 90 3.6 1981 2003 .92 3.7 , 93 3.8 () , 2003 .94 3.9 - 107 3.10 , 1982-1999 .108 3.11 110 4 4.1 118viii 4.2 119 4.3 (a) (b), 2004 .120 4.4 121 4.5 1900-2000 .126 4.6 - 127 4.7 , 132 4.8 1979-1990 1991-2005 .133 4.9 - .134 4.10 135 4.11 , 136 (1 000 )136 4.12 144 4.13 145 4.14 - 200 , 146 4.15 2002 2012 . ()147 4.16 , 147 5 5.1 163 5.2 , , 2010 165 5.3 , 166 5.4 172 5.5 2030 176 5.6 12 177 5.7 181 5.8 "" 183 6 6.1 201 6.2 , 2003 .202 6.3 204 6.4 204 6.5 , 2002 .205 6.6 206 6.7 , 207 6.8 208 6.9 , , ( 2006 .)211 6.10 214 6.11 CO2215 6.12 216 6.13 10 (g/3) , 2002 .216 6.14 NO2 (g/m3) , 2002 .216 6.15 1998-2002 . 217 6.16 , 218 6.17 , 2004 .221 6.18 222 6.19 223 6.20 224 6.21 228 6.22 229 6.23 CO2 -25229 6.24 ( )230 6.25 10 232 6.26 233 6.27 EEA-32, 235 6.28 238ix 6.29 238 6.30 243 6.31 247 6.32 250 6.33 - 251 6.34 Aedes aegypti 252 6.35 253 6.36 253 6.37 254 6.38 ,2004 .254 6.39 256 6.40 CO2 257 6.41 , 2000 .258 6.42 261 6.43 , 2002 .261 6.44 263 6.45 265 6.46 266 6.47 266 6.48 269 6.49 271 6.50 272 6.51 272 6.52 273 6.53 274 6.54 279 6.55 8,9 279 6.56 5- () - ()281 6.57 283 6.58 - 286 6.59 289 7 : 7.1 1305 7.2 2005-10 . 306 7.3 307 7.4 308 7.5 (2005 .)309 7.6 310 7.7 311 7.8 , 2002 .311 7.9 312 7.10 314 7.11 , -15, 315 7.12 317 7.13 2000 .319 7.14 , 320 7.15 323 7.16 325 7.17 327 7.18 , 328 7.19 329 7.20 331 7.21 333 7.22 , 334x7.23 338 7.24 340 7.25 341 7.26 : 352 7.27 2006 .355 8 : 8.1 "" 367 8.2 -4 - 368 8.3 371 8.4 , 372 8.5 , 374 8.6 375 8.7 380 8.8 , 381 9 9.1 402 9,2 412 9.3 412 9.4 412 9.5 413 9.6 413 9.7 : 10 10 414 9.8 414 9.9 414 9.10 415 9.11 SOX 415 9.12 416 9.13 416 9.14 CO2 416 9.15 417 9.16 418 9.17 419 9.18 , , 419 9.19 419 9.20 , 419 9.21 420 9.22 420 9.23 421 9.24 , 422 9.25 , 422 9.26 2000 2050 .424 9.27 2000 ., 425 9.28 2000 . 2050 .425 9.29 427 9.30 427 9.31 427 9.32 1 . , 429 9.33 429 9.34 429 9.35 430 9.36 430 9.37a - 432 9.37b - 432 9.37c 1 . - 432 9.37d - 432xi 9.37e , - 432 9.37f , - 432 9.37g - 433 9.37h -433 9.37i SOX - 433 9.37j - 433 9.37k - 433 9.38a -- 435 9.38b -- 435 9.38c 1 . - - 435 9.38d - - 435 9.38e , -- 435 9.38f , - - 435 9.38g - - 436 9.38h -- 436 9.38i SOX - - 436 9.38j - - 436 9.38k - - 436 9.39a - 437 9.39b - 437 9.39c , - 437 9.39d , - 437 9.39e -437 9.39f SOX - 437 9.39g - 438 9.39h - 438 9.39i - 438 9.40a - 439 9.40b - 439 9.40c 1 . - 439 9.40d - 439 9.40e , - 439 9.40f , - 439 9.40g - 440 9.40h - 440 9.40i SOX - 440 9.40j - 440 9.40k - 440 9.41a - 442 9.41b - 442 9.41c , - 442 9.41d , - 442 9.41e - 442 9.41f SOX - 442 9.41g - 443 9.41h - 443 9.41i - 443 9.42a - 444 9.42b - 444 9.42c 1 . - 444xii 9.42d - 444 9.42e , - 444 9.42f , - 444 9.42g - 445 9.42h - 445 9.42i SOX - 445 9.42j - 445 9.42k - 445 9.43. - ()447 9.44 448 9.45 448 9.46 448 9.47 449 9.48 CO2 449 9.49 449 10 - - 10.1 460 10.2 461 10.3 465 10.4 477 1 1.1 10 1.2 13 1.3 15 1.4 16 1.5 17 1.6 - , 19 1.7 20 1.8 22 1.9 , -23 1.10 24 1.11 , 26 1.12 29 1.13 32 1.14 33 2 2.1 , 44 2.2 44 2.3 52 2.4 , , 54 2.5 56 2.6 62 2.7 69 2.8 70 2.9 - 71 2.10 , 73 3 3.1 , 89 3.2 91 3.3 93 3.4 96 3.5 99 3.6 100 3.7 101 3.8 " "103 3.9 104 3.10 109 4 4.1 130xiii 4.2 () - 134 4.3 137 4.4 141 4.5 141 4.6 142 4.7 144 4.8 148 4.9 ()150 5 5.1 160 5.2 161 5.3 162 5.4 163 5.5 170 5.6 171 5.7 : 175 5.8 175 5.9 177 5.10 177 5.11 2005 . ( )178 5.12 : 185 5.13 , , 186 5.14 187 5.15 189 6 6.1 - 202 6.2 206 6.3 208 6.4 210 6.5 211 6.6 212 6.7 213 6.8 213 6.9 , 214 6.10 - 218 6.11 220 6.12 - 225 6.13 , 227 6.14 229 6.15 231 6.16 233 6.17 - ?234 6.18 236 6.19 238 6.20 241 6.21 242 6.22 , 246 6.23 247 6.24 250 6.25 , : 252 6.26 255 6.27 256 6.28 257 6.29 , , 257 6.30 259 6.31 260 6.32 261 6.33 , 262 6.34 264xiv 6.35 : , ?267 6.36 268 6.37 271 6.38 274 6.39 275 6.40 , 277 6.41 , 280 6.42 281 6.43 282 6.44 285 6.45 286 6.46 : 288 7 : 7.1 304 7.2 308 7.3 314 7.4 - --320 7.5 323 7.6 326 7.7 327 7.8 329 7.9 : - 331 7.10 332 7.11 334 7.12 : 335 7.13 335 7.14 336 7.15 339 7.16 : 2005 .342 7.17 - 354 8 : 8.1 369 8.2 : ,, 370 8.3 , 377 8.4 378 8.5 380 8.6 : 386 8.7 : 387 8.8 : 388 8.9 390 8.10 : 391 9 9.1 417 9.2 421 9.3 423 9.4 426 10 - - 10.1 465 10.2 470 10.3 476 10.4 10- -- 480 10.5 482 10.6 484 10.7 486 10.8 488 10.9 490 10.10 491xv 1 1.1 , 11 1.2 31 1.3 32 2 2.1 , 45 2.2 50 2.3 67 2.4 , , 72 2.5 1987 2007 . , , 75 3 3.1 85 3.2 - ( 2) 1987-2006 .( 2 )86 3.3 86 3.4 91 3.5 98 4 4.1 123 4.2 125 4.3 131 4.4 138 4.5 , 152 5 5.1 169 5.2 172 5.3 179 5.4 183 6 6.1 , -4203 6.2 , 5 209 6.3 10 217 6.4 221 6.5 , , 221 6.6 , 234 6.7 235 6.8 , 237 7 : 7.1 , 10 307 7.2 , -4318 7.3 338 7.4 345 8 : 8.1 383 9 9.1 , 403 9.2: , () 428 10 - - 10.1 468 10.2 3R 2000-2010 .473xvi , . , , , . -4. , . . , , , . . , , . , . . . . . . . , , . - . . , : , , , , , /. , . . , . , , . . , . . : , ., , - . . , . , xvii . . , , . , . . . - . , . : , . , . , . , , , , . , , , . . , , , , , , . . , , , . , , . - , -, 2007 .xviii : (-4) , : , , , , , . , . , , , . , , , . , , : . , . , , , , . , 2002 , , . () , : , . , , , . 190 . , . -, - . , , : , . ( ), , , , , , . -4 , : , . , , , , .xix2007 , 20- . , , " " - - - , . -4 . 400 , 40 , . . , , -4, , , , 1 000 . -4, . xx : (-4) , . , . -4 1987 , () . 1983 . 38/161 . , .2007 - , , ( , ) . :n , .n , " 2000 ", .n , ( ) XI , .n (), .2007 , (). . -4 , . -4 10 , , , . , . , . : 1: - , " "; , , , . 2: - . , . , . 3: - , , . - , . 4: - , . , , 20 , . xxi 5: - , . . 6: - 1987-2007 . : , - , , , . , 1997 . . 7: : - . , . 8: : - , , , . , , . , . 9: - , 2050 : , , , , , . . , . . 10 - - - , , , . . : , , , . (-4) -4 -4 " - - - - " () , 9. . . , - , . -4 , , . , -4 ( 1) , . " " "", ( 1). -4 . . xxii , , . : ; ; ; , ; ; - . , . , - , . . : , ; , , ; ; ; . () (, ). , . , , . , |):: |): |): |)19I 1I | ) 1 | ) |): 11 | ) sss , s s s , |) , s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s xxiii . , , , , . , . , , . , , . , , , , , , , , . . , , , , / . . , , . , , , , . , . , ( , ) / . , , . . : , . , . -4 10 , , . - , . 8 8.2 1, , , , , , , - .80 40 040 80 40 040 180 135 90 45 0 45 90 135180 135 90 45 0 45 90 135 -- - CO - - () () - : , 2007b80 40 040 80 40 040 180 135 90 45 0 45 90 135180 135 90 45 0 45 90 135 -- - CO - - () () - : , 2007bxxvi - - () - - - -4xxvii - - () () - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ( ) - - xxviii - - - - - - - - () - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - () - () () - - - () - () - () - - - ( ) - () - - () - - () - () - () - - - () - - - ( ) - - - - () - () - xxix () () () () () xxx - - () () () () () () () () () - () - - - () () - xxxi () ( : (), , , (), , , , ) 1 " " , ; . . -: : , , , , , , -, : , , , , , , , , , , , -, , , , , .. , ... .: : , , : fotototo/Still Pictures 1 20 , (), , , , . , , - . : 1987 , . 5 . 1,7 . , . ( ) 5 927 1987 8 162 2004 . . 20 , . . . 2 1000 1990 220 1000 2003 , 1 1000 1990 114 1000 2003 . , . . () 20 , , . . , , , . , , , . . 20 . . , . : , . , . , , , , . . , , , , . . , . , , , , , , . , , , , , , . , . , 7- (), . . , 26 . 20 . , . , , , , 5 . , , . 1,8 443 . . , . 1987 ., , . , (, -- 1992 2002 ), (, ). , , . (, ) . , , , (, , ). . , . , , , , , , . . , , , . , 20 , . , , , , , . . . , . . . A: , , , . , , . . . , . . . , ( ), 20 , " ." 4- () , . -4 , , , , . , . . 1987 , . 1980-, , , , , . , , , , , . 1987 . , , . , , . n , , . n , . n , , , . n , . n . n . n , . , , , . . , . . : . . , . : 20 , , , . , : n ; n ; n ; n ; n ; n ; , : n ; n ; n ; Z , , . , . : UN Photo/Milton Grantn , ; n ; n . , . , , . 1972 1980 , , , ( , 1991). (Langhelle 1999). , , , , . , " , , , , ." , " , " ( 1987). , , (), " ", -- 1992 . 108 , 24 000 () 17 000 . " " , . . . -- I , , . -- 27 , , . -- , , , . I , . 40 , 4 : n , , , ; 8 A: n , , , , ; n ( , , , , , , , - , ); n , , , , . I , , . I , ( 2002)., I (). , , " ", , . 1991 6,8 . 24 . 2 000 , 160 . , 2006 32 3,13 . , ( 2006). . . , 2000 , " , , " ( 2000). , . " " --, 2002 () , . 21 000 , 191 . : , , , . WEHAB ( WEHAB) , . 54 . " - ", ( ). , , , , , ( 2002). 20 , , . 1988 , - , , . 2007 . , . . . , , () (. 1.1), . () 150 " " --. , . --. 15- P -- , " , , ( 1992). , . 20 , , . , 1989 2007 191 , , . . , , , . . , . , , , , , , . . , , I . , " ." , , ( 2002). , , , . , , , , (Carothers and Barndt 2000). . " ..., , , " ( z I!z!!IIzz! I1!I!1z!IIz1!zI!I!1I10 A: 2007). "" , , (Prakash 2000). . , , , , , , ( 2007). , . , . , . 37 XXI , , XXI , 28 . . , . . , " " . " ", " (. 1.1)." 1- I : " . . ( 2006). , , 7- . ( 2005a). (. 1.1). , 7- . , . (Rahnema 1997). , , (Shiva 1991). -4, . . , , , . , , . , , . , , . . , , , . , . , , - . : n ; n ; n ; n . . : , , , . , , , , . 26 . , , , , , . . , .: Bass 2006, World Bank 2006a 1.1 11 . (Dernbach 2002). , . , 2005, , (Travis 2005, Fischetti 2005). , (Gore 2006). 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(aa/1-+-z1---z+ 2.9 (g/m3) 7891-4002 2,4280180 10 SO2 2,01,61,20,80,4024020016012080400 014012080400180 NO2 14012080408891989109911991299139914991599169917991899110029991000220023002: APMA, 2002 ., , 2005 ., , 2006 ., CPCB, 2001-2006 ., , . , 2006 ., , 2002 ., TERI, 2001 ., , 2006a: . SO2 20 g/3, . 10 20 g/3.54 B : : 1 9 8 7 2 0 0 7 , 10 (. 2.9 2.10). , , , , . : (WHO 2006a). , 10 SO2 , 10 , . SO2 , . NO2 , . . , , , , , , (. 2.11). , , . (Vingarzan 2004), .. ; . , , ( " "). 2.11 2000 ., : , 2006 .10ppbv*152025303540455055607560S (.)180W (.)30SEQ30N60N150W 120W 90W 60W 30W 0E 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180E* ppbv = ( . , 6), , , , n . , . , . n . , . n , , . n , . n , . n SO2 , . , (. 3). 2.4 , , 55 , , , (Ramanathan and others 2002). 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