geoffrey west predictive science of cities speed february 2012atlas iedc...
DESCRIPTION
Geoffrey West's Predictive Science of Cities Speech, given at the International Economic Development Council's Leadership meeting in San Antonio, Texas.TRANSCRIPT
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IS A QUANTITATIVE, PREDICTIVE, SCIENCE OF
CITIES CONCEIVEABLE? WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM PHYSICS
& BIOLOGY?
GEOFFREY WEST
SANTA FE INSTITUTE
SAID BUSINESS SCHOOL, OXFORD UNIVERSITY
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1800 < 4% OF THE US POPULATION WAS URBAN
2011 > 80%
2006 > 50% WORLD’S POPULATION URBANISED
2050 > 75%
EVERY WEEK FROM NOW TILL 2050 OVER ONE MILLION PEOPLE ARE BEING
ADDED TO OUR CITIES
WE LIVE IN AN EXPONENTIALLY EXPANDING SOCIO-ECONOMIC
(URBANISED) UNIVERSE!!
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENTROPY!!
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NEED A SCIENCE OF CITIES
“GRAND UNIFIED THEORY OF SUSTAINABILITY”
ARE THERE UNIVERSAL, QUANTIFIABLE PRINCIPLES?
COMPLEMENT TO TRADITIONAL (QUALITATIVE) THEORIES AND MODELS
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ARE CITIES AND COMPANIES JUST VERY LARGE ORGANISMS
SATISFYING THE LAWS OF BIOLOGY?
WHY DO ALL COMPANIES DIE WHEREAS ALMOST ALL CITIES
SURVIVE?
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• METABOLISM
• GROWTH
• AGING/DEATH
• EVOLUTION
• SLEEP/REPAIR
• DISEASE/CANCER
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THE SEARCH FOR UNDERLYING LAWSAND PRINCIPLES LEADING TO A
QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIVE (COARSE-GRAINED) CONCEPTUAL
FRAMEWORK
[ENERGY & RESOURCES (METABOLISM)
vs. INFORMATION (GENOMICS)]
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0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
log
nu
mb
er o
f tr
un
ks
0.5 1
1.5 2
2.5 3
log trunk diameter (cm)
N = 55 D-
1.95
N = 62 D-2.07
1981
1947
INTERSPECIFIC SIZE DISTRIBUTION
All species in a Malaysian Rainforest
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SCALABILITY
RESILIENCE
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Blue Whale
200,000,000g
Shrew
2gElephant
2,000,000g
Mammals vary in size by8 orders of magnitude
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Age (day)
Wei
ght (
g)300
240
180
120
60
0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360
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SLOPE = ¾ < 1 SUB-LINEAR
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EXTRAORDINARY SYSTEMATIC ECONOMY OF SCALE (THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE LESS NEEDED PER
“CAPITA”)
SIMILAR SCALING HOLDS TRUE FOR ALL PHYSIOLOGICAL
PROCESSES AND LIFE HISTORY EVENTS OVER THE ENTIRE
SPECTRUM OF LIFE
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heart rate scales as -1/4 power of body mass
Metabolic rate sets the pace of lifesmall animals live fast and die young
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NETWORKS!!!
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Relation between number and size of branches within a tree
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INCOMING METABOLISED ENERGY
MAINTENANCE (of existing cells)
+GROWTH(of new cells)
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BIOLOGY (LIFE)
a) DOMINATED BY NON-LINEAR (UNIVERSAL) 1/4 - POWER SCALING
b) EXTRAORDINARY ECONOMIES OF SCALE (THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE LESS YOU NEED PER “CAPITA”)
c) PACE OF LIFE SYSTEMATICALLY SLOWS WITH INCREASING SIZE;
d) GROWTH IS SIGMOIDAL REACHING A STABLE SIZE AT MATURITY
e) NETWORKS
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ARE CITIES (AND COMPANIES) SCALED VERSIONS OF EACH
OTHER?
DO THEY MANIFEST “UNIVERSALITY”?
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Kuhnert, Helbing & West, Physica A363, 96-103 (2003)
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Example of scaling relationships
a) Total WAGES per MSA in 2004 for the USA vs. metropolitan population.
b) SUPERCREATIVE employment per MSA in 2003, for the USA vs. metropolitan population.
SUPER-LINEAR SCALING
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Innovation measured by Patents
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TOTAL CRIME (JAPAN)
Slope = 1.21 [1.08, 1.35]
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UNIVERSALITY
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THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY
DOUBLING THE SIZE OF A CITY
SYSTEMATICALLY INCREASES
INCOME, WEALTH, NUMBER OF PATENTS, NUMBER OF COLLEGES,
NUMBER OF CREATIVE PEOPLE, NUMBER OF POLICE, CRIME RATE,
NUMBER OF AIDS & FLU CASES, AMOUNT OF WASTE,………..
ALL BY APPROXIMATELY 15%
REGARDLESS OF CITY
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NETWORK DYNAMICS DETERMINES THE PACE OF LIFE
IF THE SLOPE IS < 1 PACE OF LIFE SLOWS DOWN
IF THE SLOPE IS > 1 PACE OF LIFE SPEEDS UP
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Pace of biological life vs. Pace of social life
Heart Rate vs. Body SizeWalking Speed vs. Population Size
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I. FINANCIAL MARKETS, ECONOMIES, GLOBAL WARMING, ENVIRONMENT, URBANISATION, HEALTH, CRIME, POLLUTION,……….
ARE NOT INDEPENDENT
THEY ARE ALL HIGHLY COUPLED, INTER- RELATED COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
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UNIVERSALITY OF SOCIAL NETWORKS (CLUSTERING
HIERARCHIES)
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II. ACCELERATION OF THREATS TO SUSTAINABILITY HAS ORIGIN IN SUPER - EXPONENTIAL URBANISATION
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III. NEED A NEW PARADIGM, A NEW INTEGRATED CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK: SYSTEMIC, HOLISTIC, QUANTITATIVE, PREDICTIVE
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CITIES AND URBAN LIFE
a) SUPER-LINEAR DOMINATED BY INNOVATION & WEALTH CREATION
THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE MORE YOU GET PER CAPITA OF EVERYTHING FROM INCOME AND INNOVATION TO CRIME, POLLUTION AND DISEASE - ALL TO THE SAME DEGREE (~15% FOR EVERY DOUBLING OF SIZE)
b) SYSTEMATIC INCREASE OF PACE OF LIFE
c) UNBOUNDED GROWTH vs COLLAPSE
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Growth Equation
Total incoming rate (Resources, Products, … “Energy” or “Dollar” equivalent)
≈ Maintenance (Repair, Replacement, Sustenance, …) + Growth
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N(t)
t
N(0)
b < 1 (SUB-LINEAR) BOUNDED GROWTH
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b >1 (SUPER-LINEAR)
SUPER-EXPONENTIALUNBOUNDED GROWTH COLLAPSE
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tc
N(t)
tc
N(t)
t
t
tc
N(t)
t
tc
N(t)
t
N1(0) .
N(0)
N2(0) .
N3(0) .
t
N(t)UNBOUNDED GROWTH
REQUIRES ACCELERATING CYCLES OF INNOVATION TO AVOID COLLAPSE
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UNBOUNDED GROWTH LEADING TO “FINITE-TIME SINGULARITY” & COLLAPSE
UNLESS INNOVATIONS (SYSTEMATICALLY) OCCCUR FASTER AND FASTER
CONTINUOUS TENSION BETWEEN:
INNOVATION & WEALTH CREATION vsECONOMIES OF SCALE
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Population growth for New York City1790 - 2003
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Successive cycles of superlinear innovation reset the singularity and postpone instability and subsequent collapse. The relative population growth rate of New York City over time reveals periods of accelerated (super-exponential) growth. Successive shorter periods of super exponential growth appear, separated by brief periods of deceleration. (Inset) tc for each of these periods vs. population at the onset of the cycle. Observations are well fit with β = 1.09 (green line).
Successive cycles of superlinear innovation reset the singularity and postpone instability and subsequent collapse. The relative population growth rate of New York City over time reveals periods of accelerated (super-exponential) growth. Successive shorter periods of super exponential growth appear, separated by brief periods of deceleration. (Inset) tc for each of these periods vs. population at the onset of the cycle. Observations are well fit with β = 1.09 (green line).
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Average “idealised, universal” characteristics of cities of a given size (constrained by underlying principles and dynamics of network structures - manifested in scaling laws)
vs.
Characteristics of specific cities as measured by deviations from scaling laws representing their individuality and local environment and conditions
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-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92
105
118
131
144
157
170
183
196
209
222
235
248
261
274
287
300
313
326
339
352
Cornwallis, OR (1)
San Jose (4)
Boston (107)
Phoenix (155)
Denver (206)
Abilene (359)
New York (272)
2003 Patenting Rankings
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Public sculptures cast in metal are being substituted with cheap plastic replicas to prevent them being stolen by thieves feeding the voracious appetite for commodities in China and India.
The Historic Houses Association said this weekend that many stately home owners were putting antique garden statues into storage and displaying plastic copies instead.
1 September 2011
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OUR “NATURAL” METABOLIC RATE ~ 90 watts
OUR SOCIAL METABOLIC RATE ~ 11,000 watts !!!
WE ARE EQUIVALENT TO A 30,000 Kg GORILLA !!!
REPRODUCTION RATE OF ~ ONE OFFSPRING PER 15 years
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JAMES BROWN (UNM/SFI)BRIAN ENQUIST (U. ARIZONA)WOODY WOODRUFF (LANL)
VAN SAVAGE (HARVARD)JAMIE GILOOLLY (U. FLORIDA)
DREW ALLEN (UCSB)MICHELLE GIRVAN (U. MARYLAND)
ALEX HERMAN (UCSF)CHRIS KEMPES (MIT)
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LUIS BETTENCOURT (LOS ALAMOS/SFI - PHYSICS)JOSE LOBO (CORNELL/ASU - URBAN ECONOMICS)DEBORAH STRUMSKY (HARVARD/UNC - ECONOMICS)HYEJIN YOUN (SFI)MARCUS HAMILTON (SFI/UNM)NATHANIEL RODRIGUEZ (SFI)
DIRK HELBING (ETH ZURICH - TRANSPORT/PHYSICS)ERICH RAUCH (PHYSICS/BIOLOGY - MIT/PRINCETON)
DAVID LANE (U. REGGIO - STATISTICS/ECONOMICS)SANDER van der LEEUW (PARIS/ASU - ANTHROPOLOGY)DENISE PUMAIN (PARIS - URBAN GEOGRAPHY)SPYROS SKOURAS (ECONOMICS - U. ATHENS)
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PATRONS:
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
GENE & CLARE THAW CHARITABLE TRUST
BRYAN & JUNE ZWAN FOUNDATION
ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION
McDONNELL FOUNDATION