Population Geography

Distribution of World Population

Rates of Population Growth

Demographic Transition Theory

Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians

The first hominids roamed eastern Africa

5-7 million years ago.

Humanity has wandered the

earth for a very long time.

The first modern humans walked

out of Africa as hunter-gatherers

only 70,000 years ago.

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

At that time there were probably

about 1 million humans on Earth

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When Darwin published On the Origin of

Species there were 1 billion humans

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When I was born there were

5.0 billion humans

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the world

population at:

7.2 Billion humans today

…and counting!

http://www.worldometers.inf

o/world-population/

Our impacts

are growing.

LANDSAT

Images

1973 - 2006

Las

Vegas,

Nevada

Human Impact on The Environment

Source: Hugo Ahlenius. 2003. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Global Environmental Outlook 3, 2002.

Human Impact on the Environment, 1700 Human Impact on the Environment, 2002 Human Impact on the Environment, 2032

Densely Population Areas

• East Asia

• South Asia

• Southeast Asia

• Europe

• North America

WHERE ARE THE PEOPLE

DISTRIBUTED?

Sparsely Population Areas

• arid lands

• tropical rainforests

• highlands

• high latitudes

World and Country Population Totals

Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!

Total: 6.8 billion on planet as of March 5, 2010 Current World Population Counter from U.S Census Bureau

Five most populous regions and countries

REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION

East Asia 1.6 billion China 1.3 billion South Asia 1.5 billion India 1.1 billion Europe 1 billion U.S. 300 million SE Asia 600 million Indonesia 250 million Eastern N. America &

Canada 275 million Brazil 188 million

Kolkata, India

Rajasthan, India

Overpopulation is when there are too many people

relative to available resources. Simple density is not the determinant.

Human Population Projections How many people will the planet eventually support?

The U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations Statistics Division both agree that world population will level off somewhere between 9 and 11 billion people and then start to fall.

Doubling Time • How long will it take for a population

of a given area to double in size?

• Divide 70 by the annual population

natural increase rate and you find the

doubling time.

World = 58 Sub-Saharan Africa = 30 Uganda = 20 years Costa Rica = 80 U.S.A. = 128 years Denmark = 333 years Russia = ? Japan = ?

Example: Bangladesh 70 / R.N.I. => 70/2.09 = 33.5 years

Bangladesh with a population of

144.3 million people in 2005 will

have approximately 288.6

million people in 2038, if the

population continues to grow at

current rates.

Source: National Geographic Magazine

Rates of Natural Increase

Total Fertility Rate

Palestinian Territories

Fertility Rate

1975-1980 7.39

1980-1985 7.00

1985-1990 6.43

1990-1995 6.46

1995-2000 5.99

2000-2005 5.57

2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age.

Africa

Fertility Rate

1975-1980 6.60

1980-1985 6.45

1985-1990 6.11

1990-1995 5.67

1995-2000 5.26

2000-2005 4.97

U.K. Total

fertility rate

1975-1980 1.72

1980-1985 1.80

1985-1990 1.81

1990-1995 1.78

1995-2000 1.70

2000-2005 1.66

Total Fertility Rate - the average number of

children a women will have in her

childbearing years. This rate varies from just

over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali).

The U.S. rate is 2.

Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age

of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3

(Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The

U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher

fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

World Death Rates

Epidemiological Transition is the shift from infectious to degenerative diseases that occurs with development.

Infectious diseases (developing world) – HIV/AIDS

– SARS

– Malaria

– Cholera

Degenerative diseases (developed countries) – Obesity

– Tobacco use

Adults and Children Living with HIV/AIDS, mid-2006

Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy

Rapid increase throughout world

Infant mortality rate declining in most countries

Antibiotics/immunization

Increasing standards of living

Influences on Birth Rates Family planning

programs – India, Thailand, Bangladesh, etc.

Contraceptive technology

Role of mass media – Radio/TV Soap Operas

("Twende na Wakati" in 1990s Tanzania, which means "Let's Go with the Times"

Government Billboard, Indonesia

Demographic Transition Model

Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural) – Crude birth/death rate high – Fragile, but stable, population

Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine) – Lower death rates – Infant mortality rate falls – Natural increase very high

Stage three (attitudes change) – Indicative of richer developed

countries – Higher standards of

living/education – Crude birth rate finally falls

Stage four (low growth or Z.P.G.) – Crude birth and death rates low – Population stable – Populations aging

Stage five (declining) – Crude birth rates exceptionally low – death rates low – Population decreasing – Populations aging rapidly

Problems with the Demographic Transition Model

• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization and that this is key issue

• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth or industrial economies – TV and family planning seem to be at work

• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East

Most Populous Cities (2012)

Population Pyramids

Population Pyramids quickly show

• age distributions

• demographic booms and busts

• sex ratios

• dependency ratios

Wide base depicts young

population; narrow base suggests

declining birth rates or growing

elderly population.

Population Dynamics

Cartograms

A cartogram is a map in which a thematic mapping variable is used to represent the extent of a location instead of land area or distance.

Cartograms

Waldo Tobler (born 1930): Made the first computer-generated cartogram. American geographer and cartographer, Professor Emeritus at the University of California, Dep’t of Geography Famous for: "Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related to each other"

Overpopulation

Definition and Some Important Issues

1. Population Control Thailand Success Story

Birth Control

2. Urbanization

3. Coastal Change

4. Population Impacts

Overpopulation When consumption of

natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

When the carrying capacity of a natural region is reached

1. Urbanization

Definition

“Urbanization is a process of urban growth. It leads to a greater proportion of people being concentrated into towns and cities”

In 2008 – for the first time in history over 50% of the world’s population lived in towns and cities.

Urbanization – results in an increasing proportion of city dwellers in contrast to those in the countryside

Urbanization is a worldwide process – it began at different times in different parts of the world and occurred at contrasting paces.

Causes of urbanization

1. Rural to urban migration

2. Natural Increase

Structures and their impact to the beach profile

Breakwaters

Barriers

Sea Walls

Buildings and Houses

Coastal Change

Rapid increase in population, especially in developing countries, will lead to more coastal cities.

As coastal zones become more densely populated, coastal water quality will suffer, wildlife will be displaced, and shorelines will erode.

The appearance of coastlines and beach profiles will significantly change over time.

Population Control

Means of controlling or altering population growth rate and/or factors that can influence population size.

Population Control

Challenges

– Manufacture/distribution expense

– Religion

– Inequality of Sexes

– Preference for male children

– Female Infanticide

Thailand - an example of success

Annual population growth dropped from 3.3% in 1972 to 1.2% in 1995. This has been more or less the stable rate.

Community-Based Family Planning Service (CBFPS). Focused on wants and needs of poor.

How did Thailand Accomplish Demographic Transition?

• Breaking taboos of contraception

• Free contraceptives

• Financial incentives

• Reduced infant mortality due to infectious diseases - clean water supply

• Altered desired number of children (from 8 to 3)

Meanwhile, in China

• In China, population control is a political outcome • Women must receive “birth coupons” prior to

conception • Mass murders of girl babies • Abortions (even at 9 months gestation) • Women of reproductive age examined and

monitored

The Philippines: Learning from Thailand

• Dr. Nibhon Debavalya, Thailand’s leading population expert, responds with a parable about Thailand and the Philippines. (inquirer.net/9489/family-planning-in-

thailand-ph)

The Philippines: Learning from Thailand

Thailand was able to radically reduce its population growth rate to 0.6 percent while the Philippines inched down to 2.04 percent in the period 1970-2010. During the period 1970-2008, Thailand’s GDP per capita grew by 4.4 percent, while the Philippines’ grew by 1.4 percent. By 2008, Thailand’s total GDP was $273 billion while the Philippines’ was $167 billion.

Population Growth - Optimistic

Growing prosperity will reduce desire for large

families.

Technology/communication will spread

information faster, making transition more rapid

than it occurred for more developed countries.

Fertility rates are dropping and populations are

stabilizing (except in Africa).

Population Growth - Pessimistic Demographic trap:

poorer countries will

not become

developed enough for

birth rate to be

reduced, causing

population growth

rates to remain high.

Catastrophe will be

the only regulatory

control.

• predicted that innovation and the resulting increased wealth and choice it creates would provide alternate foods and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family and improving societies: larger populations are good because they lead to more innovations and ideas.

• believed that society was perfectible

Jean Antoine Condorcet (1743 – 1794)

Thomas Malthus on Population

Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply - leading to a decrease in food/person

His Assumptions:

Populations grow geometrically.

Food supply grows arithmetically.

Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

Food Population

2 2

4 4

8 16

16 256

Population J-Curve This graphs depicts the actual growth in human population

from the beginning of agriculture until 2000!

Population Impacts

Population and the Environment

To put these two in context, consider the following equation:

I = P x A x T where I = environmental impact P = the population size A = affluence (or consumption) T = effects of the technology used People overpopulation relates the first term - P Consumption overpopulation relates to the last two terms - A and T.

Population and the Environment

Population-influenced environmental problems:

• Global Warming

• Habitat Loss / Endangered Species

• Resource Depletion

• Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

Population, Affluence, and Resource Consumption

Population, Affluence, and Resource Consumption

Source: World Bank, 2012: siteresources.worldbank.org/

Technology, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Impact

There has been a dramatic increase in:

• individual energy use over time: 3,000 kcal/person -

300,000 kcal/person (each of us in the U.S. has the equivalent of about 100 energy servants)

• the power of technology to change the environment: think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb.

• the scope and severity of environmental impacts.

Individual Annual Energy Use (Goudie, 2006)