Evening Roundup28 July 2020

US Consumer Confidence @ 19:30 IST

A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

34/659-P, Civil Line Road,

Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Day So far

• Investors shifted their attention towards the Federal Reserve’s two day

policy meeting that begins today and gives the decision tomorrow. Even

though the sentiments weighed on brewing tension between US and China

coupled with spiking corona cases, markets continued to soothe its nerves

with an expectation of another accommodative policy stance from US.

Global equities seen mixed, while commodity futures in India’s MCX

platform, slipped lower.

• Precious metals seen under pressure after testing recent highs on

retreating dollar. Gold prices eked out gains after stretching to record high

of $1980.56 an ounce at one point of time and seen trading at $1930 an

ounce. Silver in the same platform exhibited massive price fluctuation and

currently seen with loss around 3.00 percent.

• Limited price moves had been witnessed in crude oil. Although, hopes of

additional stimulus measures from US central bank checked the dampened

demand outlook of crude oil over rising coronavirus cases. Both WTI and

Brent were trading with moderate loss. Meanwhile Natural gas prices

rebounded after previous session’s steep fall.

• Base metals complex on MCX platform were under pressure led by Nickel,

which shed more than a percent. However, industrial metals on Shanghai

market were being traded on a mixed bag, where Lead gained more than

2.00 percent.

MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Last updated at 16:00 IST

GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES

RATIOS

Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious

Day CloseVol

Gold52010 -0.17 52186 52435 51277 52101 10530

Silver 63911 -2.47 66047 67560 61597 65528 58119

Crude Oil 3104 -0.42 3116 3125 3092 3117 33410

Natural Gas 130.4 -0.08 129.6 130.9 128.9 130.5 17174

Copper 503.15 -0.35 506.3 506.3 502.4 504.9 6164

Nickel 1024 -1.45 1033 1033 1022.5 1039.1 6134

Lead 148.45 0.03 148.7 148.85 148.2 148.4 1171

Zinc 175.9 -0.68 180 180 175.45 177.1 3593

Aluminium 140.05 -0.18 140.4 140.45 139.9 140.3 373

Commodity Rate % Chg

Gold ($/oz)1930.231 -0.6

Silver (c/oz) 23.7078 -3.67

Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 41.35 -0.6

Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 1.746 0.69

SHFE Copper (CNY/T)51540 -0.27

SHFE Nickel (CNY/T) 108570 -0.55

SHFE Lead (CNY/T) 15450 2.05

SHFE Zinc (CNY/T)18010 -0.5

SHFE Aluminium

(CNY/T) 14525 0.59

Indices Rate % Chg

Dow Jones Fut 26389.0 -0.36

CAC**4900.9 -0.78

DAX** 12775.0 -0.5

Shanghai* 3228.0 0.71

MSCI Asia Pacific index 166.8 0.848

Baltic Dry index 1293 -1.822

Dollar index 93.77 0.11

Ratio

5 Days Monthly 90 Days

Daily High Low High Low High Low

Gold Silver ratio80.89 83.36 79.51 100.73 79.51 113.47 79.51

Gold Crude ratio265.73 265.75 253.96 265.75 248.78 726793.17 247.39

Lead Zinc ratio 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.85 0.83 0.88 0.80

Steel Nickel ratio35.72 36.51 35.47 36.51 33.00 36.51 28.53

Lead Aluminium ratio1.08 1.08 1.07 1.16 1.07 1.27 1.07

80.89 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold

265.73 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold

0.84 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead

35.72 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel

1.08 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead

ECONOMIC DATA

Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous

Monday, July 27, 2020

7:00 China High Chinese Industrial profit (YoY) (Jun) 11.50% 6.00%

7:00 China High Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Jun) -12.8% -19.30%

18:00 US High Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) 7.30% 7.20% 15.70%

18:00 US High Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun) 15.30%

20:00 US Low Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jul) -6.1

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

19:30 US High CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 94.5 98.1

19:30 US Low Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jul) -27

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 7.544M

16:30 US Moderate MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 5.10%

18:00 US Moderate Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun) -1.60%

18:00 US Moderate Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -1.20%

19:30 US High Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 15.30% 44.30%

19:30 US High Pending Home Sales Index (Jun) 99.6

20:00 US High EIA Crude Oil Inventories -2.088M 4.892M

20:00 US High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.618M 1.073M

20:00 US High EIA Gasoline Inventories -1.386M -1.802M

23:30 US V High FOMC Statement

23:30 US V High Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

0:00 US V High FOMC Press Conference

Thursday, July 30, 2020

5:20 Japan Moderate Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) -6.50% -12.50%

14:30 EUR Moderate Consumer Confidence (Jul) -15 -15

18:00 US High Continuing Jobless Claims 16,197K

18:00 US Moderate Core PCE Prices (Q2) 1.40% 1.70%

18:00 US High GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -34.00% -5.00%

18:00 US High GDP Sales (Q2) -3.50%

20:00 US High Natural Gas Storage 37B

Friday, July 31, 2020

5:20 Japan Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) 1.20% -8.90%

6:30 China Moderate Chinese Composite PMI (Jul) 54.2

6:30 China High Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51 50.9

6:30 China High Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 54.4

14:30 EUR Moderate CPI (YoY) (Jul) 0.20% 0.30%

14:30 EUR Moderate CPI, n.s.a (Jul) 105.69

14:30 EUR High GDP (YoY) -13.90% -3.10%

14:30 EUR High GDP (QoQ) -11.20% -3.60%

17:00 India Moderate Bank Loan Growth 6.10%

17:00 India Moderate Deposit Growth 11.00%

17:30 India Moderate Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Jun) -23.40%

18:00 US High Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) -0.50% -4.20%

18:00 US High Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) 5.50% 8.20%

19:15 US Moderate Chicago PMI (Jul) 44.5 36.6

19:30 US Moderate Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul) 66.2 72.3

19:30 US Moderate Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 72.9 73.2

19:30 US Moderate Michigan Current Conditions (Jul) 84.2 87.1

22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 181

BULLION

GOLD M

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

Technical Levels

R3 54200

R2 53200/53720

R1 52460/52700/52930

Turnaround 51650

S1 51220/50880

S2 50200/49960/49530

S3 49380/49140/48720

Technical Commentary

Early dips could be possible before initiating next stage of buying towards the

upside objective of 52460 or even to 52700. But a vertical fall through 51650

may push prices lower.

Technical Levels

R3 71000

R2 67800/68900

R1 65600/66400

Turnaround 61200

S1 59200

S2 58300/57000

S3 55500

Technical Commentary

Broad buying still intact and possibly to extend higher in the coming session

towards the upside objective of 65600 followed by 67800. But surprise fall

below 61200 may squeeze down prices lower.

SILVER M

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

NATURAL GAS

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

CRUDEOIL

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

ENERGY

Technical Levels

R3 3425

R2 3275/3350

R1 3185/3240

Turnaround 3145

S1 3030/2985/2930

S2 2860

S3 2790/2725/2650

Technical Commentary

Current feebleness of prices likely to extend towards the downside objective

of 3030 then to Bollinger lower band level of 2985. But rise above 3145 may

lift prices higher.

Technical Levels135

R3 153/155.70

R2 148/150.70

R1 138/140.50/143.10

Turnaround 132

S1 130.20/126

S2 122.20/114.70

S3 110/106.80

Technical Commentary

Intraday move largely to be northbound with an immediate objective of 138

followed by 140.50. But fall past below 132 may squeeze down prices lower.

NICKEL

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 518.30/523.80

R2 514.60

R1 510

Turnaround 506.50

S1 498.30/495.70/494

S2 491.30

S3 488/483.50/475

Technical Commentary

Botched attempt to crack above the obstacle of 506.50 could except a

corrective move towards the downside objective of 498.30 then to 495.70.

But voluminous trades above 506.50 could lift prices higher.

Technical Levels

R3 1073/1086

R2 1064

R1 1033/1045/1052

Turnaround 1020

S1 1010/998

S2 986/979

S3 967/954

Technical Commentary

Present selling move may succeed only below the SMA level of 1020 region. If

not could anticipate a price rebound to 1033 then to 1045.

Copper

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

Zinc

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

Lead

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 183.10

R2 180/181.40

R1 178/179.10

Turnaround 177.30

S1 174.30/172.90

S2 171.40/170

S3 168.30

Technical Levels

R3 155

R2 152/153.40

R1 150/151.20

Turnaround 149.55

S1147.60/146.30/145.

40

S2 144.20/143/141.70

S3 139.70

Technical Commentary

Witnessing weakness may continue in the coming session towards the

downside objective of 174.30 then to 172.90. In this bearish sentiments, rise

above 177.30 could lift prices higher.

Technical Commentary

As long as prices hold the hindrance of 149.55 could expect a corrective move

towards the downside objective of 147.60 then to 146.30. However, rise above

149.55 may lift prices higher.

Aluminium

MCX Aug

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 144.90

R2 142.40/143.30

R1 141.10/141.80

Turnaround 139.70

S1 138.50/137.20

S2 136

S3 134.70/133

Technical Commentary

Ensuing buying sentiments likely to continue in the coming session towards the

Bollinger upper band level of 141.10 then to 141.80 region. But fall below

139.70 may squeeze down prices lower.

Buying

sentiment/

Bullish

Selling

sentiment/

Bearish

Neutral/

sideways

S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling

pressure.

R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter

buying pressure.

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2020-07-28T16:27:35+0530KRISHNA PRASAD N B