Evening RoundupAugust 5, 2019

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 19:30 IST

A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

34/659-P, Civil Line Road,

Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Day So Far

• Global financial markets were grappled with worries emerging from fresh US tariff

threat and retaliatory move from China on in the form of halt of American

agricultural products. A massive sell off has been witnessed in global equities.

Equity Indices ranging from Asia to Europe tumbled down alongside with US equity

futures. On currency front, Dollar Index marked third consecutive days of losses

from its two year high. Back home, INR fall past 70.50 mark against Dollar on the

back drop of global trade worries and over political developments in Kashmir.

• Bullion in international market propped up on escalating trade tensions and losing

risk appetite. Weakness in dollar also weighed on prices as well. Gold in London

spot market mounted to six year peak and seen trading above $1455 an Ounce.

Meanwhile, silver in the same platform gained more than a percent, tracking gold.

In the meantime, precious metals in MCX platform got an additional gain owing to

Indian Rupee weakness.

• Crude oil prices remained under pressure on demand concerns from escalating

trade tensions. Both benchmarks, WTI and Brent, slipped lower more than a

percent. While Crude oil in MCX platform restricted its losses on fading domestic

currency against Dollar. Meanwhile Natural gas prices reeled under selling pressure

on lower cooling demand in the US.

• London base metals too remained under pressure on renewed trade worries. But a

contradictory move has been seen in Nickel prices on LME, which continued gains

and soared more than 3 percent on future supply worries from Indonesia.

Meanwhile, LME Copper hit its lowest level more than two years. While, MCX base

metals inched up on Indian Rupee weakness.

MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Last updated at 16:00 IST

GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES

LME STOCKRATIOS

Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious Day

CloseVol

Gold36150 1.61 36192 36250 36020 35577 300

Silver 42408 2.52 41519 42493 41519 41364 17132

Crude Oil 3897 0.15 3870 3909 3861 3891 78135

Natural Gas 148.2 -0.13 148.1 148.9 146 148.4 11631

Copper 436.3 0.7 432.3 437.4 432.3 433.25 8599

Nickel 1062.7 3.92 1033 1067 1033 1022.6 37684

Lead 152.45 0.63 151.65 153.25 151.65 151.5 3439

Zinc188.9 0.24 188.95 190.1 188.6 188.45 7175

Aluminium 140.3 0.47 139.4 140.4 139.4 139.65 940

Commodity Rate % Chg

Gold ($/oz)1461.121 1.43

Silver (c/oz) 16.5018 1.8

Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 55.24 -0.75

Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.091 -1.41

LME Copper ($/T)5705 -0.3

LME Nickel ($/T) 14930 3.07

LME Lead ($/T) 1947 -0.31

LME Zinc ($/T)2331.5 -0.81

LME Aluminium ($/T) 1787 -0.67

Indices Rate % Chg

Dow Jones Fut 26124.0 -1.23

CAC** 5259.8 -1.85

DAX** 11694.6 -1.5

Shanghai* 2821.5 -1.62

MSCI Asia Pacific index 155.6 -1.36

Baltic Dry index 1788 -1.325

Dollar index 97.79 -0.29

Ratio5 Days Monthly 90 Days

Daily High Low High Low High Low

Gold Silver ratio85.22 86.01 83.06 92.75 83.06 92.75 83.06

Gold Crude ratio147.17 147.17 136.11 147.17 131.97 147.17 108.24

Lead Zinc ratio0.81 0.81 0.80 0.82 0.77 0.82 0.65

Steel Nickel ratio37.32 37.32 35.36 37.32 30.25 37.32 26.41

Lead Aluminium ratio1.09 1.11 1.09 1.15 1.06 1.15 0.99

85.22 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold

147.17 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold

0.81 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead

37.32 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel

1.09 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead

Net

change

Warrant

change

Tonnage

ratio

Copper-3325 3525 9.51

Aluminium-4200 -13600 25.80

Nickel-660 660 29.64

Zinc-275 -1350 37.14

Lead-50 0 11.75

ECONOMIC DATA

Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous

Monday, August 5, 2019

6:00 JPY Low Services PMI (Jul) 51.9

13:30 EUR Low Services PMI (Jul) 53.3 53.3

19:15 USD Low Services PMI (Jul) 52.2

19:30 USD Low CB Employment Trends Index (Jul) 109.5

19:30 USD Moderate ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 55.5 55.1

19:30 USD Moderate ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul) 58.9

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Tentative USD Low IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 56.6

19:30 USD Low JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) 7.268M 7.323M

21:30 USD Moderate FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

2:00 USD Moderate API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.024M

14:30 INR High Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00% 4.00%

14:30 INR High Interest Rate Decision 5.50% 5.75%

16:30 USD Low MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -1.40%

20:00 USD Very High Crude Oil Inventories -8.496M

20:00 USD Very High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 1.046M -0.894M

20:00 USD Very High Gasoline Inventories -1.449M -1.791M

Thursday, August 8, 2019

18:00 USD Moderate Continuing Jobless Claims 1,678K 1,699K

18:00 USD Moderate Initial Jobless Claims 215K 215K

19:30 USD Moderate Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jun) 0.40% 0.20%

19:30 USD Moderate Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.10%

20:00 USD Moderate Natural Gas Storage 65B

Friday, August 9, 2019

5:20 JPY Moderate GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.40% 2.20%

5:20 JPY Moderate GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.10% 0.60%

13:30 USD High IEA Monthly Report

17:00 INR Low FX Reserves, USD

18:00 USD Moderate Core PPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.30% 2.30%

18:00 USD Moderate Core PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.30%

18:00 USD Moderate PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.10%

18:00 USD Moderate PPI (YoY) (Jul) 1.70% 1.70%

22:30 USD Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

BULLION

GOLD M

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

Technical Levels

R3 37470

R2 37280

R1 36730/37050

Turnaround 36200

S1 35820/35500/35125

S2 35000/34830

S3 34650

Technical Commentary

Witnessing bullish sentiments likely to be upheld in the coming session

towards the immediate prices objective of 36730, followed by 37280. But,

fall past below 36200 may grab prices lower.

Technical Levels

R3 44180

R2 43890

R1 42780/43500

Turnaround 41840

S1 41400/40760/40260

S2 39250

S3 38970/38500/3815

Technical Commentary

Ensuing buying momentum may prolong towards the upside objective of

42780 then to 43500. But, reclaiming trades below 41840 may push prices

lower.

SILVER M

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

NATURAL GAS

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

CRUDEOIL

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

ENERGY

Technical Levels

R3 4210/4228

R2 4150/4175

R1 4045/4110

Turnaround 3945

S1 3840/3770/3740

S2 3665

S3 3600/3530

Technical Commentary

Decisive trades above the Bollinger middle band level 3945 could lift prices

higher. Inability to sustain above 3945 may grab down prices lower to 3840

followed by 3770.

Technical Levels

R3 171.80

R2 161.50/163.20/168

R1 154.90/158.90

Turnaround 152.70

S1 145/144

S2 139

S3 135.60

Technical Commentary

Broad weakness may stretch lower in the coming session towards the

downside objective of 145, followed by 144. In the bearish picture, recouping

trades above the trend line hindrance of 152.70 could push prices higher.

Daily CRUDE OIL AUG9 26.09.2018 - 26.11.2019 (BOM)

Value

INR

Bbl

47.732

Price

INR

Bbl

Auto

3,000

3,500

4,0003,898.00

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019

NICKEL

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

COPPER

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 454.20/457.30/460

R2 448.30/451.20

R1 441.40/444.90

Turnaround 438.80

S1 434/431.70

S2 430

S3 426.70

Technical Commentary

Determined trades above the internal trend line resistance of 438.80 could

lift prices further. If not, could grab prices back to Bollinger lower band

level of 431.70 region.

Technical Levels

R3 2002/2013

R2 1093

R1 1074

Turnaround 1043

S1 1019/1003

S2 986/978/967

S3 955/938

Technical Commentary

Uninterrupted buying momentum may extend towards the immediate price

objective of 1074 followed by Fibonacci retracement objective of 1093.

However, as prices trading at over bought situation, could expect equal

plausible chance of corrective fall once prices settled below 1043.

Zinc M

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

Lead M

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 196.70/197.30

R2 194.80/

R1191.90/192.70/193.

60

Turnaround 188

S1 186.40

S2 185

S3 183.40

Technical Levels

R3 161

R2 157.80/158.80

R1 154.80/156.60

Turnaround 150.90

S1 148.90

S2 147

S3 146.20

Technical Commentary

Broad weakness my persist only on significant trades below 188. Else could

anticipate a trend reversal move towards the EMA level of 191.90 then to

192.70. But, crack below 188 could dent our recovery expectation.

Technical Commentary

Trend line hurdle of 150.90 seems to be major obstacle for intraday

weakness, which if remained untouched, could call a short covering move

towards 154.80 or even higher. Conversely ,intraday selling may be seen only

below 150.90.

Alumini

MCX August

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 146.70

R2 144.20/145.80

R1 142/142.70

Turnaround 140.80

S1 139.60/138.70

S2 136.90

S3 135.50/133.90

Technical Commentary

Rise above the internal trend line resistance of 140.80 could boost prices higher

towards the upside objective of 142.70 or even more. Inability to succeed

above 140.80 could squeeze down prices lower to 138.70.

Buying

sentiment/

Bullish

Selling

sentiment/

Bearish

Neutral/

sideways

S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling

pressure.

R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter

buying pressure.

GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:

CERTIFICATION

I, Krishna prasad N.B, an employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby

certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all

of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.

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nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained

within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the

rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.

Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this

report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity

or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in

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futures.

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