geological risk assessment
DESCRIPTION
Input for Geological Risk AssessmentTRANSCRIPT
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7/17/2019 Geological Risk Assessment
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1Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva
LIFE Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Input for Geological Risk Assessment
Johannes Klein & Jaana Jarva
April 2008, St. Petersburg
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7/17/2019 Geological Risk Assessment
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2Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Risk (technical approach)
Risk = Hazard x Consequence
xposure ! "ulnera#ilit$
The probability of harful !onse"uen!es, or e#pe!te$ losses
%$eaths, inuries, property, livelihoo$s, e!onoi! a!tivity
$isrupte$ or environent $aage$' resulting fro
intera!tions bet(een natural or huan)in$u!e$ ha*ar$s an$
vulnerable !on$itions.
+onventionally ris is e#presse$ by the notation
-is /a*ar$s # ulnerability.
Soe $is!iplines also in!lu$e the !on!ept of e#posure to
refer parti!ularly to the physi!al aspe!ts of vulnerability.&'(IS)R 200*+
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7/17/2019 Geological Risk Assessment
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,Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Input for the Risk Components
/a*ar$3 Type of ha*ar$ %geologi!al instability, erosion, ra$on, floo$4.'
3 Probability of o!!urren!e
3 5#tent an$ agnitu$e
5#posure
36o. of people affe!te$36o. of buil$ings affe!te$
3 7ength of affe!te$ net(or infrastru!ture %roa$s, pipelines, (atersupply4'
ulnerability
3 Sensitivity
3 alue
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7/17/2019 Geological Risk Assessment
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*Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
xamples for "ulnera#ilit$
uil$ings9 vulnerability %sensitivity' to geologi!al instabilitiesVulnerability = construction type + age of building + height of
building + maintenance + single house or row of houses
-oa$ net(or9s vulnerability to geologi!al instabilities
Vulnerability = length + importance (+condition)
People9s vulnerability to -a$on
Vulnerability = construction type of building + drinking water
source & consumption or radon in air
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Input data
:eologi!al /a*ar$s3 Probability, 5#tent, ;agnitu$e
5#posure an$ ulnerability
3 +a$astral $ata %no. & type of houses, infrastru!ture'3 Population $ensity
3
S+ ;ineral>
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
%a#le of Geological Risks and "ulnera#ilit$Geological
Hazard
Hazard
&arameter
xposed
lement
xposure "ulnera#ilit$ &arameters
and Indexes
xplanatio
n
'ources
Radon Rdon.on.entrtion inir o$er thresho"d
ou"tion ou"tion inrdon ronere
(o1 of eo"e inunrote.ted3houses
Foundtiont4es5S"%on%rde8house 9ithse:ent8 .r9"s.e
;uoti"inen8 e"=inen8?@@,5 Rdon Ris>Min usinIndoor Monitorin)t8 Indoor in 9ter
o$er thresho"d
ou"tion eo"e usindrin>in9ter 9ith
rdon.on.entrtion o$erthresho"d
in 9ter
)i"4 drin>in9ter.onsu:tion5
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Radon Risk ap
) 1
ery lo( 2
7o( ?
;e$iu @
/igh
-a$on hazardfore!ast%taen fro the
ra$on)ha*ar$ ap'
uil$ings9 vulnerability%buil$ing9s fun!tion & no.
of floors'
ery lo( 1
7o( 2
;e$iu ?
/igh @
ery high
B Radon Risk
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
uildings* "ulnera#ilit$ (first estimates)
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Radon Risk ap
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
+eighting of hazards , the -elphi method
H In$estitions of oinions nd
rtins fro: hrd nd sti"
"nnin eAerts on i:ortn.e
of .ertin hrd on Euroen
s."eH Three round $ere
esti:tion
H
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
ulti.hazard (multi.risk) mapping
Suing up of single ha*ar$ gri$ layers C !lassifi!ation ofulti)ha*ar$s into five !lasses %very high, high, e$iu, lo(,
very lo('
Dsing the etho$ of suing up the gri$s aes it possible to
loo ba!(ar$s (hat is the $ata behin$ the "ualitative ris
assessent
See siplifie$ e#aple fro Einlan$ use$ to !lassify !onstru!tion
suitability on the regional s!ale
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Construction suita#ilit$ data (simplified
example from /inland)
All $ata is !onverte$ to 2#2 etre gri$
Soil types have !lasses 1)20, an$ other apping eleents have
!lasses ?0)F0
3 F !lay, F0 (ater
Slope steepness have !lasses 100)@00
3 G H 100, C ?0 H @00
Thi!ness of fine)graine$ se$ients have !lasses 1000)000
3 G 2, 1000, C 2 000
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Construction suita#ilit$ data (0)
5n$ result -aster ap (here Iuaternary geologi!al apping$ata slope steepness thi!ness of fine)graine$ se$ients are
sue$ up
+o$ing of gri$s
31000 ) 000 thi!ness
3100 ) @00 slope steepness
31 ) 1F soil type
5#aple :ri$)!o$e 3106
3 thi!ness of fine)graine$ se$ients 3000% @,)1? '
3 slope steepness 100% GH'
3 soil type 6% !lay'
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
1R21''
;ulti)-is 7an$ Dse ;anageent Support Syste
;ap an$ s!enario sele!tion
/a*ar$ analysis
5#pose$ eleents analysis
ulnerability analysis ;ultiple !riteria ris evaluation
+oping !apa!ity analysis
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?6Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Risk factors3 hazards (4)
:eologi!al instability3 Iuaternary $eposits
3 5ngineering geology Surfa!e, 10 eters level, 20 eters level
7ithologi!al groups %san$, gravel, peat et!.' C properties thi!ness
Sub)groups of ro!s
3 /y$rogeologi!al properties :roun$(ater level in $ifferent a"uifers %!hanges'
7o!ation of ain a"uifers
Pie*oetri! heights
36eote!toni!s Lones %!al!ulate$ a!!or$ing to observe$ events'
3 Paleovalleys Pre)"uaternary reliefs
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Risk factors3 hazards (0)
-a$on ha*ar$3 @ !lasses %very lo(, lo(, e$iu, high'
6ature gas generation
3 Areas (ith no(n natural gas generation
3 Areas re!oen$e$ to be stu$ie$ further
3 Areas (ith burie$ hy$rologi!al systes %laes, river !hannels, also
artifi!ial fore$ areas'
3 :as !olle!tor (ells %ris anageent' %point $ata'
3 :as generation events %no(n ris' %point $ata'
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?BJohnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Risk factors3 hazards (5)
6ature gas generation %@ !lasses>'3 Areas (ith no(n ris
3 Areas (here further stu$ies are nee$e$
3 Areas (ith burie$ hy$rologi!al systes %natural an$ artifi!ial'
3 Areas (ith anage$ ris
Karst forations
3 7o!ation
Surfa!e erosion3 -elevant $o!uents, $atasets (ill be provi$e$ by S+ ;ineral
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?@Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Risk factors3 6ulnera#ilit$ (7)
;aster plan3 +urrent situation of lan$ use
3 7an$ use in 201
3 7an$ use in 202
uil$ings
3 Dse of buil$ing36uber of floors
3 Type of buil$ing
Population $ensity %three options'
36uber of registere$ resi$ents in buil$ings3 5stiations base$ on type of buil$ing
3 Mistribution of population $ensity in the !ity
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LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
/urther 8ork
The attribute inforation of sele!te$ .shp)files (ill be translate$to 5nglish
5nglish translations (ill be $elivere$ by S+ ;ineral to :TK
either as separate tables or as .shp)files (ithout any +yrilli!
(riting by the en$ of ;ay
:TK (ill first ae proposal for !lassifi!ation of geologi!
instability
;ulti)ha*ar$ aps> Neighting of ha*ar$sO Melphi)etho$>
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2?Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
Rele6ance of geological risks
-esults fro "uestionnaire $evelope$ in Tas 2 The ost iportant ris a!!or$ing to four intervie(e$ groups
flooding caused by groundwater
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22Johnne !"ein # Jn Jr$
LIFE%Third Countrie
GeoInfor
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/00026
-iscussion
Mifferen!e bet(een options of e#perts an$ people Prootion nee$e$