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  • 8/12/2019 Geopolitical Conflict Threat Monograph

    1/51

    Joshua L. Wallace, Richard G Hartley,

    Gary Bowman, Andrew Coburn, Simon Ruffle

    Working Paper 201308.02

    Draft: August 2013Available for download atwww.risk.jbs.cam.ac.uk

    Geopolitical Conflict

    Cambridge Risk Framework

    Profile of a Macro-Catastrophe Threat Type

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    Cambridge Risk Framework

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    Geopolitical Conflict

    Joshua L Wallace1, Richard G Hartley2, Gary Bowman3*, Andrew Coburn3, Simon Ruffle3

    August 2013

    Abstract

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    Keywords:

    Conventional War, Conflict, China, Japan, United States, Middle East

    Working Paper 201308.02 www.risk.jbs.cam.ac.uk

    Author(s):1

    Head of Research, Cytora2 Head of Product Development, Cytora

    3Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge.

    V Correspondence to: Gary Bowman, University of Cambridge Judge Business School Centre for RiskStudies, Cambridge, UK, CB2 1AG. Email address: [email protected]

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    Table of Contents

    1 Monograph Summary .......................................................................................... 4

    2 Definition .............................................................................................................. 4

    3 Summary of the Threat ........................................................................................ 4

    3.1 Causes ....................................................................................................................... 5

    3.1.1 Balance of Power .................................................................................................. 5

    3.1.2 Driving Factors ...................................................................................................... 7

    3.1.3 Auxiliary Factors .................................................................................................... 9

    3.1.4 An era of Pax Americana .................................................................................... 10

    3.1.5 Failure of bargaining ........................................................................................... 133.1.6 Future Trends ...................................................................................................... 14

    3.2 Consequences ......................................................................................................... 15

    3.2.1 Economic ............................................................................................................ 16

    3.2.2 Political ................................................................................................................ 18

    3.2.3 Social .................................................................................................................. 18

    4 History ................................................................................................................ 20

    4.1 A catalogue of historical events ............................................................................ 20

    4.2 Historical Catalogue: A Brief Analysis .................................................................. 20

    4.3 Historical Case Studies .......................................................................................... 28

    4.3.1 The Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945) .................................................... 284.3.2 Iran-Iraq War- 1980-1988 .................................................................................... 32

    5 Magnitude scale ................................................................................................. 36

    5.1 Magnitude summary ............................................................................................... 36

    6 Sectoral Vulnerability ........................................................................................ 38

    7 Geography of hazard ......................................................................................... 41

    7.1 Likelihood of conflict .............................................................................................. 41

    7.2 Potential for high magnitude ................................................................................. 42

    8 Scenario Specification ...................................................................................... 43

    9 Bibliography ....................................................................................................... 49

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    9Lewis F. Richarson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels(Chicago: Quandrangle Books, 1960)

    10Francis Fukuyma (1989), The End of History?, The National Interest, pp. 3-18

    11There are a number of exceptions to the democratic peace theory- the Spanish-American civil war, the continuation of War

    between Finland and the Allies after WW2 and the Kargil war between India and Pakistan. It has been argued that thepresence of contract-intensive democracies is the critical variable with the most explanatory power

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    3.1.5 Failure of bargaining

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    Peace, International Studies Quarterly (Forthcoming)16Li Quan and R. Reuveny (2013), Trading for Peace/ Disaggregated Bilateral Trade and Interstate Military Conflict Initiation,Journal of Peace Research (Forthcoming)17

    James Fearon (1995), Rationalist Explanations for War, International Organization 49(3), pp. 379-414

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    20Institute for Economics & Peace, Economic Consequences of War on the U.S. Economy,

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Economic-Consequences-of-War.pdf

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    Analysis

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    Further Reading

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    Consequences

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    French, British, Ottoman Empires and Kingdom of Sardinia vs. Russian Empire

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    World War II (1939 1945) Magnitude Classification: 4

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    USA, 2007/2010)35

    H. Askari, A. Mohseni & S.Daneshvar,The Militarization of the Persian Gulf: An Economic Analysis (EdwardElgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2009)36

    E. Karsh, The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988(Osprey Publishing, Oxford, UK, 2002)37

    M. Brecher & J. Wilkenfeld,A Study of Crisis(University of Michigan Press, USA 1997)38

    E. Karsh, The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988(Osprey Publishing, Oxford, UK, 2002)39

    E. Karsh, The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988(Osprey Publishing, Oxford, UK, 2002)40

    G. Harris, The costs of armed conflict in developing countries, In Recovery from Armed Conflict in Developing

    Countries Edited by Harris G. (Routledge, London, 1999)41

    E. Karsh, The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988(Osprey Publishing, Oxford, UK, 2002)42

    K. Mofdid. EconomicConsequences of the Gulf War(Routledge, NY, USA, 1990)

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    43E. Karsh, The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988(Osprey Publishing, Oxford, UK, 2002)

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    47UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2012, Hofstra University Department of Global Studies & Geography (ETH Zurich,

    Center for Security Studies)48

    Storey, Ian. Japans Growing Angst over the South China Sea, ISEAS Perspective, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,Singapore49

    Smith, Sheila A. A Sino-Japanese Clash in the East China Sea, Contingency Planning Memorandum No.18, Council on

    Foreign Relations.50

    Storey, Ian. Japans Growing Angst over the South China Sea, ISEAS Perspective, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,Singapore

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    51Senkaku air intrusion prompts radar upgrade, December 15 20102, Japan Times,http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/15/national/senkaku-air-intrusion-prompts-radar-upgrade/#.Ugz9oxapBYI52

    Cole, J. M. PLA sorties threaten encirclement, Taipei Times, February 9 2012

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  • 8/12/2019 Geopolitical Conflict Threat Monograph

    49/51

  • 8/12/2019 Geopolitical Conflict Threat Monograph

    50/51

    Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Working Paper Series

    University of Cambridge Judge Business School Centre for Risk Studies 49

    9 Bibliography

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