geoscape 2010 census (versailles 101008)

Access the New Mainstream

…Results Change the Way Businesses Market to America?Will the 2010 Census…

César M MelgozaFounder & CEO, [email protected]

1-888-211-9353

Overview

• 2010 Census process and results.• Cultural diversity—America’s growth engine.• American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.• Re-thinking Corporate Diversity.• Aligning the organization behind the opportunity.• Will corporate America embrace the Hispanic surge?

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Geoscape Background

• Geoscape International founded in ’95• Geoscape Latin America ‘95 – ’01• Geoscape Europe BV founded in ’02

– Regional headquarters in Amsterdam• Geoscape Intelligence System launched ‘04• Merged ownership with Goldman Sachs June ’07• Worldwide headquarters in Miami

3© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.

Geoscape® Provides

4

ActionableIntelligencefor a culturally-

diverse business environment

Data Resources

Technology Research Analytics

Solutions Consulting

• AMDS Geo-demographics• CSDx Spending Potential• BehaviorBase

– Healthcare– Auto Insurance– The Media Audit– Mediamark

• Ground-Truth™ Segmentation• Retail Trade Distribution• Customer Data Enrichment• Descriptive Customer Profiles• Predictive Modeling• Sampling Design• Quantitative Surveys• Qualitative Focus Groups• Conjoint Trade-off Modeling

• Geoscape Intelligence System• DirecTarget® SDK

• Combined Deliverables• Custom Databases• Integrated Systems

• Strategic Planning• Opportunity Assessment• Business Planning Support

• HomeBase - Consumer Lists• BizBase - Business Lists• MediaBase

Actionable intelligence fueled by unique data, technology and experience — accelerating growth in a culturally-diverse business environment.

The 2010 CensusProcess and Results

Census 101 (A)

• The decennial census is mandated by the American constitution.– It’s primary intent is to enumerate residents for apportioning the U.S. House of Representatives.– A secondary purpose is to enable the “equitable distribution” of funding to state and local governments.– A tertiary purpose is to support the development of commercial activity through information sharing.– It is administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

• For 2010, the decennial census included only the “short-form”– Collects basic facts of households and the individuals within them plus “group quarters” populations.– The “long-form” was previously a 16% sample co-incident with the decennial census and used to collect a

number of additional data elements, such as language-use, educational, income, and housing.

• The American Community Survey (ACS) replaced the long-form– Ongoing survey that provides data every year -- giving communities the current information they need to

plan investments and services. – Is administered each year to approximately 2 million households and the 2009 county level data became

available last week.


Census 101 (B)

• The Census Bureau is funded completely by tax payers to the tune of $15 billion for 2010.

– $340 million was dedicated to Census 2010 community outreach, advertising and marketing.

• Among the most salient issues with the census are:– Representation of economically disadvantaged groups such as ethnic minorities and recent immigrant

populations.• Who are often reluctant to respond due to either their transient nature or their fear of persecution.

• The Census is still challenged to reach ‘hard-to-count’ population segments like Un-acculturated Latinos.

– In 2000 Census, it is believed that the Latino under-count was about 0.7% fewer than were counted, which was 35.3 plus 250k or 37.5 million.

– Congress prohibited census from using estimation probability statistics to adjust the under-count.– Some believe the under-count was more severe…transient populations more likely missed as well as

those who purposefully over-stay their tourist visa term.


• Decennial full measurement of population within households and group quarters.

• Includes: 7 questions.– Persons in household.– Age.– Ethnicity, Race, Country of Origin.– Housing type and owner/renter.– Gender.– Relationships among household members.

• Ongoing monthly sample each ~2m/year: • Includes 48 questions.

– All decennial census questions.– More detail on housing characteristics.– Occupation.– Public assistance data.– Educational attainment.– Language spoken at home and English ability.– Place of birth and citizenship status.– Income, Employment, etc.

Census vs. ACS



MAR-MAYMAIL CENSUS FORMS TO ALL KNOWN

HOUSEHOLDS

JAN ‘10GROUP QUARTERS &

HOMELESS

MAY-JULDOOR-2-DOOR FOLLOW UP FOR

NON-RESPONDERS

AUG-SEPFINAL DATA COLLECTION OF

REMAINING VOIDS

DEC’31-MAR ‘11 INITIAL REDISTRICTING DATA INCLUDING

RACE AND LATINO COUNTS

APR ’11-JUN ’13 VARIOUS MORE

DETAILED DATA FILES AND REPORTS

Census 2010 TimeframesSummary of collection and deliverables

Some key Census shortcomings

• Under-count.• Confusion over race and ethnicity terminology.

– Countries of origin under race for Asian but separately under Hispanic ethnicity.– No option to select mestizo or mulatto as race.

• Language:– In ACS, English ability for non-native speakers but not usage by context.

• Other issues will be seen as published and scrutinized.


Cultural DiversityAmerica’s Growth Engine

• Employs proprietary household & individual level data.

• Utilizes proprietary DirecTarget® Technology.

• Incorporates dozens of public and private source data sets including primary research surveys.

In-depth representation of U.S. cultural diversity

• 1990 & 2000 census data to present geographic areas; for time series.

• Incorporates the American Community Survey (Census Bureau) & integrates various government data sources.

• Identifies cultural populations missed by the census

– Helps rectify the under-count in recent immigrant groups.

• Includes building permit & residential build-out data.

• Language, Income, Socioeconomic Status (SES), Country of Origin, Consumer Spending, Age Cohorts, Acculturation (Hispanicity™ and Asianicity™ segmentation), Technology Adoption and many others.

Over 1,500 indicators on various subject areas

• Features 337 detailed Consumer Spending Dynamix™ (CSDx) indicators by major ethnicity group, plus 15 major category and 4 summary variables.

American Marketscape DataStream

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• U.S., state, Nielsen Designated Market Area (DMA), metro area, county, congressional district, ZIP code, census tract and block group levels.

Macro-to-micro coverage

• Built from the “ground-up” not the other way around by a team of specialized demographers, statistical modelers & database programmers in a perennial effort to stay at the cutting-edge of research.

Multicultural population & household data – uniquely precise.Planning Year & Five-Year forecast market data; 2010/2015, July 1st vintage date.

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.

Basic compelling facts

• Hispanics, African Americans and Asians represent over 100 million Americans.

• There are over 50 million Hispanic steady-residents of the U.S.

• Hispanics contributed 52% of overall U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010.

• Consumer spending growth drives the U.S. economy—Hispanics and Asians

represent a disproportionate amount of the growth into the foreseeable future.

• The White Non-Hispanic population represents a declining share of the American

consumer—and an increasingly dependent on government entitlement programs.

• Most corporations are under-invested in in-culture marketing.

• Corporations must operationalize behind the opportunity, not just marketing.

• Marketing is only part of the equation.– In-culture operations is a critical parallel step to capitalize on the opportunity.


Hispanic Population Concentration in 1980

14Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series; Estimates as of July 1 2010.

Gateway states bordering Mexico.


Hispanic Population Dispersion 2015

15Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series; Estimates as of July 1 2010.

Arizona is the only state to decline in Hispanic population between

2009 & 2010.

Major metro areas outside border states are now gateway cities too.


U.S. Population: 2010 by Ethnic Group

16

About one-third of America’s population is of either Asian, Black or Hispanic origin; however, these proportions vary dramatically at the state and metropolitan area levels. Many companies include Puerto

Rico within their U.S. marketing efforts, with an estimated 3.99 million residents in 2010.

Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.

67%

12%

5%

16%

33%

Non-Hispanic Other Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian & Pacific Islander Hispanic


© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.* 2000-2010-2015 numbers for Asian and Black are for Non-Hispanic; 2010 and 2015 Estimates as of July 1.

17Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: Population in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (3.99 million) is not included in Hispanic population figures.

By 2015, the population in the three largest ethnic groups will be more than 110.5 million and Hispanics will represent nearly half of that population.

Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Asian & PI* 980,337 980,337 3,500,439 6,994,034 10,410,556 14,345,690 15,920,986

Black* 18,871,831 22,580,289 26,495,025 29,284,605 33,707,230 37,536,836 39,262,964

Hispanic 2,181,409 9,589,216 14,608,673 21,898,546 35,238,481 49,804,061 55,874,883

Other 157,198,598 170,062,084 181,941,668 190,507,602 202,065,639 207,880,430 212,277,086

Total 179,232,175 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,684,787 281,421,906 309,567,017 323,335,919

The Non-Hispanic White population will be about equal in size to

Hispanic+Black+Asian in 2050.

Hispanics became the largest “minority” group

in 2000 and have continued to surge.

Population Change by Ethnicity/Race

Unauthorized Immigrants in the U.S.

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U.S. is currently home to about 11 million unauthorized immigrants

– Nearly 7 million are from Mexico– Another 2.2 million come from other Latin American countries– Majority of these immigrants are young men – aged 20 -35 years old

According to the most recent Census data ,the 2009 in-flow of new immigrants from Mexico is the lowest seen in a over a decade

– March 2007 -March 2009 only saw approximately 150,000 new arrivals – roughly 41% less than the previous year

Mexico is the leading country of origin for immigrants entering the United States

– Additionally, roughly 60% of all unauthorized immigration comes from Mexico.

All people with steady residences are represented in AMDS population estimates regardless of legal status

– 2.2 million legal non-immigrants with student and work visas are included in AMDS

Sources 1. Department of Homeland Security, 20092. Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn; U.S. Unauthorized Immigration FlowsAre Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade, September 2010.

Unauthorized Immigration Trend

• Overall unauthorized immigrant population declined by nearly 1 million (7.5%) between ‘07 and ‘09.

• Decline in immigration from Mexico fell only 300 thousand (4.3%) in the same period.


Unauthorized Immigrant Inflow

• Overall steady decrease since ‘05


Median Household Income by Culture Group

21

Asians top the list in terms of annual household income, due in part to both the disproportionately large number in working age cohorts and to their higher levels of educational attainment. Hispanics are about 17 percent below the overall median.


HHs Median HH Income

Mean HH Income

Aggregate HH Income

Total 118,076,459 $53,362 $64,058 $7,563,742,076,500Non-Hispanic White 97,277,035 $56,378 $66,439 $6,462,952,031,000Black 14,374,862 $34,976 $46,149 $663,378,904,500Asian & Pacific Islander 4,406,731 $69,026 $77,353 $340,872,032,000Hispanic 13,713,851 $43,307 $53,446 $732,944,313,000

Hispanics and Asians drive growth

22Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream and Consumer Spending Dynamix™: 2010.

Hispanics and Asians together comprise 15%

of households, but contribute 67% of the increase in consumer

spending.

N-H White 2.39N-H Black 2.58N-H Asian 2.90Hispanic 3.32

Average Household Size


Top Hispanic Consumer Spending Categories

23Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream and Consumer Spending Dynamix™: 2010.

Hispanics consume more than the average American household in many categories. Among those over-indexing categories are Apparel and various food products consumed in the home.

Average household spending is 100 percent and

the shown categories are among those with above

average spending.


Aggregate Lifetime Spending per Household

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063

Cum

lative

Hou

seho

ld S

pend

ing

Mill

ions

(200

8 $)

Calendar Year - Life Expectancy

Total Expenditures

NH White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix™.


Median Age Life Expectance SpanHispanic 27 83 56Asian 33 85 52African American 30 77 47Non-Hispanic White 40 81 41

Aggregate spending over the lifespan of a Hispanic or Asian

household is usually greater than that of Non-Hispanic

White households

Hispanic household lifespan is 15 years longer and with more spending in some categories. Lifetime value in many categories will be greater in absolute dollar terms.

Multi-dimensional Consumer Diversity

DiversityMulti-Dimensional

Consumer SegmentationPlatform

Acculturation

Language Use

Country-of-OriginLife-Stage

Socioeconomic Strata

Buying Power

Media & Shopping Behavior

Psychographics


Hispanicity is Fundamental


Hispanicity™ Segmentation is a platform for strategic and tactical planning

• HA1: Americanizado– English Dominant (nearly no Spanish).– Born in US; 3rd+ generation.– Few Hispanic cultural practices.

• HA2: Nueva Latina– English Preferred (some Spanish).– Born in U.S. 2nd generation.– Some Hispanic cultural practices;

often “retro-acculturate”.

• HA3: Bi-cultural– Bi-Lingual (equal or nearly).– Immigrant as child or young adult.– Many Hispanic cultural practices.

• HA4: Hispano– Spanish Preferred (some English).– Immigrant as adult, in U.S. 10+ years.– Pre-dominant Hispanic cultural practices.

• HA5: Latinoamericana– Spanish Dominant (nearly no English).– Recent Immigrant as adult (less than 10 years ago).– Primarily Hispanic cultural practices.– Identify with home country more so than U.S.

Hispanic.

Hispanic Language Usage

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About 60 percent of Hispanics are Bi-Lingual to some degree and about 40 percent are dependant on either English or Spanish.


This pie shows the national distribution, although the mix of segments varies by region

and metropolitan area.

Code Language Segment Hispanics Age 5+ Language Segment Hispanics Age 5+ %HL1 English Dependent 9,603,177 English Dominant 21,788,218 48.7%HL2 Bi-Lingual English Preferred 12,185,041 Bi-Lingual 5,866,279 13.1%HL3 Bi-Lingual English & Spanish 5,866,279 Spanish Dominant 17,047,929 38.1%HL4 Bi-Lingual Spanish Preferred 7,963,136 HL5 Spanish Dependent 9,084,793 English Capable 35,617,633 79.7%

Total 44,702,426 Spanish Capable 35,099,249 78.5%


Gaining Access to Growth…will corporate America embrace the Hispanic surge?

Strategic Execution Paradigm


ORGANIZATIONAL ALIGNMENT

CUSTOMER TOUCH POINTS

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY

COMPETITIVE CONTEXT

• Internal– Securing buy-in

from C-suite.• Resources to tap

your fare share of the growth.

• Reflecting diversity in corporate human resources and op’s.

• CRM 360 contact in-culture.

• External– In-culture branding

and promotion.– Distribution

• Get the right product to the right customer.

– Promotion• Get shopper’s attention to

availability and deals.

– Actionable Insights• Expand profit margin by

increasing efficiencies.

Corporate Challenges


The Ad Gap

Sources: Nielsen 2009 release adjusted for 4 quarters; ahaa.org

Total U.S. Hispanic African American

Spend $136.8 $5.7 $2.4

%Share 100% 4.2% 1.8%

%Pop. 100% 15.4% 12.9%

$136.8

$5.7 $2.4 $0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

In Billions

Advertising Investment

Despite the market growth and branding power offered by in-culture marketing, total advertising investment for 2008 reflects a giant gap in commensurate spend.


The Op’s gap

• Great advertising is a start.• Customer relationship management is fundamental.

– Genuine client service to accommodate (and invite) diversity of cultures is key to success of any enterprise.

• The danger of half-commitment.– “BizBase Segment 7734.”

• One person consults the organization on multicultural marketing.• Little or No direct budget authority.• Expected to evangelize and “Hispanicize” initiatives.• Great expectations not normally great returns.• Delaying the inevitable disappointment until appropriate resources are committed.


Repositioning Corporate Diversity


HR

MKG

SALES

CSR

33

Diversity at the core, beginning with product development

Recruitment for all touch-points reflecting the customer base

Diverse human resource strategic to long-term leadership


CORPORATERESPONSIBILITY

LEGAL LIABILITY LITIGATION

COMMUNITY RELATIONS

DOING WELL BY DOING GOOD

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE

Multicultural Marketing Continuum

Summary

• 2010 Census: good data, no need to wait, use AMDS.• Cultural diversity: the engine of American economic growth.• Most companies have not right-sized for the opportunity.• Hispanics in particular are driving growth.• Corporations should recognize the Hispanic opportunity and

invest appropriately in the future growth of their companies.


Discussion

Question & Answer

Access the New Mainstream

…Results Change the Way Businesses Market to America?

Will the 2010 Census…

César M MelgozaFounder & CEO, [email protected]

1-888-211-9353

For a copy of this deck, please provide a

business card.

geoscape 2010 census (versailles 101008)

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