germany energy outlook
TRANSCRIPT
GermanyCloser Look
Germany Energy Overview
Other 26 TWhs
Solar PV 38 TWhs
Wind 88 TWhs
Hydro 19 TWhs
Nuclear 92 TWhs
Dom. Waste 6 TWhs
Biomass 44 TWhs
Natural gas 60 TWhs
Oil 5 TWhs
Hard coal 118 TWhs
Lignite 155 TWhs
Germany electricity mix 2015 by source in TWhs
Other 4 %
Solar PV 6 %
Wind 14 %
Hydro 3 %
Nuclear 14 %
Dom. Waste 1 %
Biomass 7 %
Natural gas 9 %
Oil 1 %
Hard coal 18 %
Lignite 24 %
Germany electricity mix 2015 by source in %
Non-fossil 48 % Fossil
52 %
Germany electricity mix 2015 by type in %
Clean 38 %
Combustion 62 %
Germany electricity mix 2015 by type in %
Other 4 %Nuclear
14 %
RE Combustion 8 %
RE Clean 22 %
Fossil 52 %
Germany electricity mix 2015 by type in %
Solar 20 %
Wind 45 %
Hydro 10 %
Waste 3 %
Biomass 23 %
Germany RE electricity mix 2015 by type in %
RE Clean 74 %
RE combustion 26 %
Germany RE electricity mix 2015 by type in %
Tera
wat
thou
rs
0
100
200
300
400
Fossil RE Combustion Clean
Nat gas
Oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Waste Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Waste Biomass
Nat gas Oil
Hard Coal
Lignite
Germany electricity mix 2015 by type TWhs
Germany clean electricity 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
0
60
120
180
240
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 was the first year that RE (wind) added significant net clean
energy to the grid
With further nuclear closures scheduled in the coming years and RE installation speeds decreasing, it is unlikely that clean energy will grow significantly.
German electricity exports/imports 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
ann
ually
-15
0
15
30
45
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1 -1
8 7 9
20 1923
1418
6
23
34 36
52
Exports (+) and imports (-)
The dynamics of Energiewende and nuclear production lost due to panic after Fukushima accident in 2011
Germany nuclear electricity 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
0
45
90
135
180
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Energiewende starts, early shutdown of nuclear fleet negotiated
Fukushima nuclear accident
Germany nuclear electricity 2001-2023Te
raw
atth
ours
0
45
90
135
180
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Energiewende starts, early shutdown of nuclear fleet negotiated
Fukushima nuclear accident
Current planned shutdowns
Germany renewable electricity 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
0
22,5
45
67,5
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass Waste
Renewables have mainly replaced nuclear…Te
raw
atth
ours
0
45
90
135
180
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass Waste Nuclear
… and not so much coal…Te
raw
atth
ours
0
100
200
300
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass Waste NuclearTotal coal
293 TWhs 273 TWhs
… With natural gas increasing slightly…Te
raw
atth
ours
0
100
200
300
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass WasteNuclear Total coal Natural gas
273 TWhs293 TWhs
56 TWhs 60 TWhs
Actually, total burning (including gas, oil, bio and waste) has increased by 7.8 %
Tera
wat
thou
rs
0
125
250
375
500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass WasteNuclear Total coal Total burning
Germany clean electricity by source 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
0
60
120
180
240
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV
Germany fossil electricity by source 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
0
100
200
300
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lignite Hard coal Oil Natural gas
Germany fossil electricity by source 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
0
100
200
300
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lignite Hard coal Oil Natural gas
Since Energiewende started, Germany fossil fuel use in electricity production has dropped by less than 5 %.
A drop of ~0.3% per year
Germany combustion-based electricity by source 2001-2015Te
raw
atth
ours
0
125
250
375
500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lignite Hard coal Oil Natural gas Biomass Waste
Since Energiewende started, Germany has increased burning by almost 8 %.
An increase of ~0.5% per year.
Germany’s nuclear fleet produced around 165 TWhs annually between 1996-2006
And 140 TWhs annually between 2007 and 2010, dropping to under 100 TWhs after 2011
Since Fukushima, Germany has lost 40+ TWhs of clean energy each year due to panic closures in 2011
This energy, or the renewables that have been built to replace it, could have replaced coal-based production in
Germany and its neighbouring countries.
With further early closures coming, this number will only grow.
Germany nuclear electricity generation 2016-2050 with current, 40 year, 50 year and 60 year lifetime scenarios
Tera
wat
thou
rs
0
40
80
120
160
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049
Current shutdowns 40 year lifetime 50 year lifetime60 year lifetime
~700 TWhs clean
energy lost
~2100 TWhs clean energy lost
compared to 50 year lifetime
~3500 TWhs clean energy lost
compared to 60 year lifetime
Germany Emissions Overview
According to IPCC (2014), the median emissions for different energy sources are as follows:
Coal
Natural gas
Biomass
Large-scale solar
Household solar PV
Hydro
Off-shore wind
Nuclear
On-shore wind
0 225 450 675 900
11
12
12
24
41
48
230
490
820
gCO2-eqv/kWh
According to IPCC (2014), the median emissions for different energy sources are as follows:
Coal
German grid 2015
Natural gas
Biomass
Large-scale solar
Household solar PV
Hydro
Off-shore wind
Nuclear
On-shore wind
0 225 450 675 900
11121224
4148
230490
510820
gCO2-eqv/kWh
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
German grid average emissions gCO2-eqv/kWh between 2001-2015
Average emissions balance has decreased by ~10 % in 14 years,
or less than 0.7 % per year
Data: UNFCCC v17
German energy sector total emissions annually between 2001-2013
Milli
on to
ns C
O2-
eqv
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Energy sector has decreased emissions by 9 % in 12 years
Data: UNFCCC v17
German electricity & heat sector emissions annually between 2001-2013
Milli
on to
ns C
O2-
eqv
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Electricity and heat sector has increased
emissions by 1 % in 12 years
Data: UNFCCC v17
If Germany aims to reach its goal of 40 % reductions by 2020, it would need to
reduce its overall emissions by more than three percent each year.
This will be hard, even if the nuclear power already shut down would start up again. With more nuclear closures, it is a
practical impossibility.
Emissions dynamics due to Energiewende
Annual additional emissions due to Fukushima panic-closures
0
10
20
30
40
Million tons CO2eqv Million cars (250gCO/km, 16 000km/year)
8
32,3
5
20
2015 grid average 510 gCO2-eqv/kwhCoal median 820 gCO2-eqv/kWh (IPCC2014) Cars @ 4 tons CO2/year
Nuclear 12 gCO/year (IPCC2014)
With 40, 50 and 60 year lifetime, how much emissions nuclear fleet would save compared to current
shutdown-plans, from 2016 forward?M
illion
tons
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
40-year lifetime 50-year lifetime 60-year lifetime
3 003
1 795
586
1 858
1 111
365
2015 grid average 510 gCO2-eqv/kwhCoal median 820 gCO2-eqv/kWh (IPCC2014) Cars @ 4 tons CO2/year
Nuclear 12 gCO/year (IPCC2014)
Annual CO2-savings of nuclear fleet with 40 years operation between 2016-2050 compared to current shutdowns
Milli
on to
ns C
O2-
eqv
0
20
40
60
80
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049
Grid average 510gCO-eqv/kWh Coal average 820gCO-eqv/kWh
Annual CO2-savings of nuclear fleet with 50 years operation between 2016-2050 compared to current shutdowns
Milli
on to
ns C
O2-
eqv
0
35
70
105
140
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049
Grid average 510gCO-eqv/kWh Coal average 820gCO-eqv/kWh
Annual CO2-savings of nuclear fleet with 60 years operation between 2016-2050 compared to current shutdowns
Milli
on to
ns C
O2-
eqv
0
35
70
105
140
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049
Grid average 510gCO-eqv/kWh Coal average 820gCO-eqv/kWh
Health consequences of Energiewende nuclear
shutdown
0
1250
2500
3750
5000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Historical rate Low estimate High estimate
Annual mortality prevented by nuclear compared to burning coal 1990 - 2015
Total mortality prevented with nuclear between 1990 - 2015 compared to burning coal
0
27500
55000
82500
110000
41 604
18 757
108 888
Historical rate Low estimate High estimate
Total mortality prevented with German nuclear between 1990 - 2015 compared to burning coal -
and Chernobyl all time estimated mortality
0
30000
60000
90000
120000
4 000
41 604
18 757
108 888
Historical rate Low estimateHigh estimate Chernobyl all time
0
12500
25000
37500
50000
40 year lifetime 50 year lifetime 60 year lifetime
45 466
29 127
7 929
20 498
13 132
3 575
Low estimate High estimate
Total mortality prevented with nuclear between 2016-2050 compared to burning coal
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049
40 year - low 40 year - high50 year - low 50 year - high60 year - low 60 year - high
Annual mortality prevented with nuclear between 2016-2050 compared to burning coal
Economic Factors
Euro
cent
s/kW
h
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EEG surcharge included in electricity bills, used for paying renewable tariffs, per kWh
Billio
n eu
ros
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total EEG surcharge collected per year in billion euros
Estimates
Euro
s
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total EEG surcharge collected per year per person in euros
Estimate
Cumulative EEG surcharge collected, billion euros Estimates
Billio
n Eu
ros
0
45
90
135
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cumulative EEG surcharge collected per person, euros
Estimate
Euro
s
0
450
900
1350
1800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hypothetically, what would have happened, if the EEG collected was instead used to build new nuclear capacity?
Simplified calculation: 1) Assuming annual collected money would translate to a certain amount of nuclear capacity by the end of that year,
although normally it would take several years to build a whole reactor, although several could be built at once
2) Assuming a fixed cost of 6 billion euros per gigawatt
Note that EEG currently will be collected to pay for existing production, while in this case it would be collected to build
new production annually.
Hypothetical cumulative new nuclear capacity built with EEG surcharge collected @ 6000 Meuros / GW
0
7,5
15
22,5
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cum
ulat
ive
GW
of n
ucle
ar c
apac
ity b
uilt
0
7,5
15
22,5
30
TWhs
/ ye
ar
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Annual energy production Cumulative capacity built
Hypothetical cumulative new nuclear capacity built with EEG surcharge collected @ 6000 Meuros / GW
and annual production of that capacity
What if Germany had used EEG-money to build nuclear? 24 billion / year equals 4 GW of nuclear capacity at 6 billion / GW, or 30 TWh/
year, decarbonising almost 8 % of the current, dirty power production per year.
TWhs
/ ye
ar
0
300
600
900
1200
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049
By 2033 new nuclear alone would have decarbonised the whole
gridBy 2025, in combination with
current clean energy production of 237 TWhs, new nuclear would
have decarbonised the grid.
If Germany was to start now, add 15-20 years to schedule.