getting the nation ready by preparing cities for evs · getting the nation ready by preparing...
TRANSCRIPT
Getting the Nation Ready by Preparing Cities for EVs
Jay TankersleyRocky Mountain Institute
September 2011
By 2012 most major automakers will offer at least one plug-in
2011
Nissan Leaf
2011General Motors Volt
2011Ford Transit Connect
2011
Toyota Plug-In Prius
2012
Mitsubishi MiEV
2012BMW Mini-E
2012Mercedes S-Class
2012
Volvo C30 EV
2013Honda Accord-EV
2013 Volkswagen E-Golf2013Hyundai BlueOn
Industry wide transition: One million EVs by 2015
Total U.S. Light Duty Fleet
=1,000,000 One Million EVs not
enough to make significant impact.
Projected EV share of light duty vehicle sales if we only have 1 million cars on the road by 2015
0
25
50
75
100
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
15-20 Million EVs needed by 2015
New
Lig
ht-
Duty
Veh
icle
s Sal
es S
har
e (%
)
One Million EVs not enough to make significant impact.
Source: RMI Analysis
Why Electric Vehicles?
Economic costs of U.S. oil dependence
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Loss of Potential GDP Dislocation Losses Wealth Transfer
Source: DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Program
U.S. petroleum consumption by sector0%
1%1%
2%
2%2%
2%3%
10%
16%61%
Industrial
Light-Duty Vehicles
61%
Freight Trucks16%
Air10%
Shipping 3%
Military Use 2.4%
Commercial Light Trucks 2.2%
Pipeline Fuel 2.1%
Rail 2%
Bus 0.9%
Recreational Boating 0.7%Lubricants 0.5%
6%2%
25% 67%
Electrical Power 2%
Industrial25%
Transportation67%
Residential and
Commercial 6%
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007, with projections to 2030
How do we get there?
Prepare for the inevitable arrival of EVs
•Convening Organization:•Rocky Mountain Institute
•Strategic Advisers:•Automakers, OEMs,
utilities, installers, etc.
•Member Cities:•Dedicated city leaders /
representatives
Project Get Ready
• Builds a coalition of member cities;
• Regularly convenes players for open collaboration;
• Documents member city progress and shares best practices;
• Conducts research and publishes reports; and
• Conducts monthly webinars with industry experts
Determining readiness - current status vs. future potential
‣ 65% of cities have a positive view of EVs
‣ 11% of cities have a high level of planning
‣ 11% of cities have a comprehensive approach to infrastructure
‣ 25% have a high level of education and outreach
Source: 2010 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and RMI
Where do we stand?
Source: 2010 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and RMI
“if you connect about 10 percent of the homes on any given street with and electric car, the electricity system fails”
- Anthony Haines, Toronto Hydro
How do we meet added demand?
=1,000,000
System challenges and importance of smart charging
Source: RMI Analysis
“we could get by with zero public infrastructure and the cars would be fine, any public infrastructure is just icing on the cake—it’s nice but not necessary”
- Paul Scott, Plug In America
“we need to dispel the myth of ‘range anxiety’ of consumers by building charging infrastructure”
- Vincent Lyons, Leggett & Platt
Cities should emphasize smart planning. . .
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
Construction & Electrical
WorkMaterials Labor Permitting Total
Source: 2011 City of Orlando, FL
. . . without it, cost overruns are inevitable
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
Fixed CostVariable Cost
Source: 2011 City of Orlando, FL
“every time we learn something new, that changes the way we approach this business, we have to spend a lot of time modifying IT”
- Karla Wenzel, Portland General Electric
