giant oil fieds
TRANSCRIPT
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Giant Oil Fields of the World
Presentation
AIM Industrial Contact Day
Monday 23rd May 2005
Fredrik RobeliusM.Sc. Petroleum Engineering (almost)
M.Sc. Engineering Physics
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Introduction
Is Peak Oil here now
Or have we heard all this before???
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1000b/d
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1000b
Prod 1955-2002
Prod 2003-2020 Forecast
cum prod -2002
cum prod 2002-2020 Forecast
Peak oil
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0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
USD
ollar
Oil Price in US$ 2003
Oil Crisis in relation to oil price
1) Nationalization ofAnglo-Iranian 1951
2) Suez crisis1956
3) Six day war 1967
4) Yom Kippur war1973
5) Pricepanic1979-81
6) UN Iraq embargo1990
7) War in Iraq2003
Source: BP Statistical Review
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Common factors:
The oil did not
reach the market
Media and some
governments:We are runningout of oil!
Geographic
Source: CIA World Fact Book
Today - Same old story again?
or is the oil price a bad parameter?
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Definitions
Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR)
cumulative production plus the estimatedremaining reserves
Gb Giga barrel = 109 barrels = billion barrels
= 0.159x109 m3 =159 million m3
Giant Oil Field an oilfield with estimated
ultimate recoverable oil of more than 500million barrels (>0.5 Gb)
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The Important Parameter Giant Fields
Giant fields compared to other fields with respect to:
Klla: AAPG OGJ Simmons & Com an International
Giant Oil Fields~1 %
Other Oil Fields~99 %
Number of fields
URR of the GiantOil Fields
>50%
URR from otheroil fields
< 50%
URR
Production from
the 100 largestgiants50%
Daily Production
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Top 18 Giant Fields
Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA
Field Name Country Discovery
year
Range of
URR[GB]
Ghawar Saudi Arabia 1948 66-100
Burgan Greater Kuwait 1938 32-60
Safaniya Saudi Arabia 1951 21-36
Bolivar Coastal Venezuela 1917 14-36
Berri Saudi Arabia 1964 10-25
Rumalia N&S Iraq 1953 22
Zakum Abu Dhabi 1964 17-21
Cantarell Complex Mexico 1976 11-20
Manifa Saudi Arabia 1957 17
Kirkuk Iraq 1927 16
Gashsaran Iran 1928 12-15
Abqaiq Saudi Arabia 1941 10-15
Ahwaz Iran 1958 13-15
Marun Iran 1963 12-14
Samotlor Russia 1961 6-14
Agha Jari Iran 1937 6-14Zuluf Saudi Arabia 1965 12-14
Prudhoe Bay Alaska 1969 13
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Where are the giant fields?
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Discovery Trends of Giant Fields
Source: AAPG, UHDSG
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
1850-1899 1900-1909 1910-1919 1920-1929 1930-1939 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999
Gb&Number
Discovered RecoverableReserves in Giant Fields [Gb]
Number of Giant Oil Fields
Discovered
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Discovery of Giant Fields
Field Country DiscoveryYear
UltimateRecoverable
Reserves [Gb]
Kashagan Kazakhstan 2000 7-9
Azadegan Iran 1999 6-9
Roncador Brazil 1996 2.9
Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia 1991 1.6
Sihil Mexico 1999 1.4
Ourhoud Algeria 1994 1.2
Thunder Horse US GoM 1999 1-1.5
35 giant oil fields discovered during last decade
None of the fields will have a production
capability above 1,000,000 b/d The largest fields discovered the last decade:
Source: AAPG, OGJ
C i f b f fi ld
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Comparison of number of fieldsand their URR
Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA
Field Name Country Discoveryyear
Range ofURR[GB]
Ghawar Saudi Arabia 1948 66-100
Burgan Greater Kuwait 1938 32-60
Safaniya Saudi Arabia 1951 21-36
Bolivar Coastal Venezuela 1917 14-36
Berri Saudi Arabia 1964 10-25
Rumalia N&S Iraq 1953 22Zakum Abu Dhabi 1964 17-21
Cantarell Complex Mexico 1976 11-20
Manifa Saudi Arabia 1957 17
Kirkuk Iraq 1927 16
Gashsaran Iran 1928 12-15
Abqaiq Saudi Arabia 1941 10-15
Ahwaz Iran 1958 13-15
Marun Iran 1963 12-14
Samotlor Russia 1961 6-14Agha Jari Iran 1937 6-14
Zuluf Saudi Arabia 1965 12-14
Prudhoe Bay Alaska 1969 13
Field Country DiscoveryYear
UltimateRecoverabl
Reserves [G
Kashagan Kazakhstan 2000 7-9
Azadegan Iran 1999 6-9
Roncador Brazil 1996 2.9
Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia 1991 1.6
Sihil Mexico 1999 1.4
Ourhoud Algeria 1994 1.2Thunder Horse US GoM 1999 1-1.5
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Production from Cusiana/Cupiagua
Source: AAPG, OGJ
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1991 1996 2001
DailyProd
(b/d)
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
900,000,000
CumP
rod(b)
Daily Prod
Cum Prod
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Production from Cantarell
Source: AAPG, OGJ
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
DailyPro
d(b/d)
0
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
CumP
ro
d(b)
Daily Prod
Cum Prod
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Oil Production from Mexico andtheir Giant Oil Fields
Source: OGJ, AAPG, PEMEX, UHDS
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 200
DailyProduc
tion(b/d)
Mexico Oil Production
Mexico Giant Fields Production
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Oil Production from Norway andtheir Giant Oil Fields
Source: NPD
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
DailyProduction(b/d)
Norway Total
Norway Giants
Oil P d i f S di A bi
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Oil Production from Saudi Arabiaand Ghawar Oil Field
Source: OGJ, AAPG, Saudi Aramco, UHDSG
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
DailyProduction(b/d)
Saudi Oil Production
Ghawar Production
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Conclusion
20 years ago, 15 fields had the capacity toproduce more than 1,000,000 b/d. Today
only four field canproduce that much:
Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), 1948
Kirkuk (Iraq), 1938 Burgan Greater (Kuwait), 1927
Cantarell (Mexico), 1976
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Conclusion
Producing regions will have a peak The Middle East is a key factor
The giants are getting smaller, both to size andnumber
When will the peak be?
It depends on the:demand for oil, future exploration and the
decline of the giantsMy guess/prediction is around 2010