Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)

John MarcyASTE 527 ConceptOctober 9, 2012

Background

Object Year Potential Impact Vinfinity Est.Designation Range Impacts Prob. Diam.

(cum. %) (km/s) (km)

2010 RF12 2095-2111 32 6.50 5.1 0.007

2006 JY26 2073-2110 49 0.84 2.98 0.007

2011 AG5 2040-2047 4 0.20 9.55 0.14

2009 FD 2185-2190 2 0.19 15.87 0.13

2000 SG344 2069-2094 21 0.14 1.38 0.037

2011 AM37 2044-2108 120 0.11 3.66 0.004

2009 BE 2061-2111 29 0.09 11.46 0.02

2000 LG6 2075-2111 31 0.09 2.11 0.005

• Earth has experienced the extinction of a species, the Tunguska event within the past 100 years, and will experience a close call in the year 2029• Example NASA programs involved in the discovery of Near-Earth Objects:• Spaceguard: 93% of objects found with diameter > 1 km• NEOWISE: 20-23% of objects found with diameter > 100 m• LINEAR: Adapting technology to follow satellites to discover NEO’s

History

July 1991 – STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) signed

1998 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroidsgreater than 1 km

2005 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroidsgreater than 140 m by the year 2020, funds pending

1908 – A 50 m asteroid exploded over Siberia with the equivalentdamage of 600 Hiroshima nuclear bombs – Tunguska Event

April 2010 – New START treaty signed between the U.S. and Russia

January 1967 – Outer Space Treaty signed between the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. The same year, a group of MIT students look to develop first asteroid interceptor with Project Icarus

2029 – The 300 m asteroid 99942 Apophis will miss Earth by approximately one tenth the distance from the Earth to Moon

Context• For impacts predicted with lead times greater than 10 years, altering the orbit of the asteroid’s trajectory can cause it to miss Earth Completely• There currently exists no mitigation plan against eventual Earth impact with these smaller, yet still powerful asteroids• Deep Impact has previewed the necessary technology to enable GOLD

MethodLead Time Necessary ΔV Required

KEI > 10 years 1-2 cm/sSlow-Pull GT > 10 years 1-2 cm/s

Nuclear Deflection > 10 years 1-2 cm/sLaser/Solar Deflection > 10 years 1-2 cm/s

GOLD 15 days 2-30 km/s

Deep Impact GOLDSize of impacting

body (km) 5 0.1 - 1

ΔV (km/s) 10 2-30Crater Size (depth)

(m) 23 m 3-5

Miss Distance (m) 300 10

Sensor HRI/MRI/IR IR

Launch Vehicle Delta II Atlas V?

NEO Discovery 1867 ?

Orbital Period (years) 5.5 ?

Mission Length 6 years > 15 days

The Scenario / Assumptions• With very little warning, an asteroid has been discovered to impact a highly populated city• For example, a minivan size meteor struck northern California, on

April 26, 2012

• This concept addresses taking out aggressor with existing nuclear warhead with a penetrator/subsurface detonation first, not a stand off detonation• GOLD provides Earth with a last line of defense

The GOLD Spacecraft• The Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) is a missile that has been in service since 2004 and widely tested against an array of targets

Nuclear Device

Heat Shield

Adaptor with expeller

55 in

23in

Mass = 65.3 kg

Nuc Mass = 1100 kgTotal Dry Mass = 1500 kgTotal Wet Mass = 3000 kg

Cooling System

Timeline

> 15 day launch window needed

Launch for a ΔV ranging from 2-30 km/s

~3 min into flightseparation

Initial maneuver and Guide autonomously for ~24-48 hours

Sensors on with~24 hours to go

EKV separates and detonates

Nuclear warhead detonateson area impacted by EKV

The Need vs. Risk for Nuclear

• The momentum/energy transfer created by a shallow subsurface nuclear explosion is at least 100 times more effective than that of a standoff nuclear explosion

Limitations

• Develop a more adaptable system • NEO’s can vary in size, shape, orientation, spin, etc• Extreme high velocities already a major concern

• Ensure the system is as 100% reliable• There is a known issue with EKV and multiple objects – dual salvo?

Future Studies

• Develop choreographed response to incoming threat• Send multiple GOLD spacecraft to repeatedly strike the incoming asteroid

• Decrease the threat of nuclear fallout• This will alleviate some of the political and environmental worries

• Adapt the system to counter the possible comet impact• Comets move on the order 10 times faster and could be bigger than

asteroids• Long term – use possible Lunar base as a way to track potential threats, and launch for quicker deployment and smaller ΔV’s

The Global Planetary Defensive Agency (GPDA)

• Tasks:• Maintain the three stations across the Equator• Monitor the skies for incoming threats• Reallocate of the global nuclear arsenal• Analyze the scenario for the last line of defense

• Location of impact vs. potential nuclear fallout

References• Houdu, Guillaume. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptor Proposed for Asteroid Impactors”.

http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/09/25/innovative-hypervelocity-nuclear-interceptor-spacecraft-mitigating-impact-threat-asteroids/. 25 September 2012

• Thangavelu, Madhu. “Putting Surplus Nukes to Good Use”. www.spacenews.com. 12 April 2010.• Wei, Bong. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptors for Asteroid Deflection or Disruption”. 2011 IAA Planetary

Defense Conference, 09-12 May 2011.• http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthread.php/40725-How-to-Colonize-the-Moon-without-breaking-NASA-

s-budget• http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/26/rush-on-to-find-fragments-of-california-meteor/• http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/07/thousands-of-nearby-asteroids-are-big-enough-to-harm-earth-

nasa/• http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/linear.html

http://spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu/• http://timeforchange.org/nuclear-energy-and-nuclear-weapons-per-country• http://www.adrc.iastate.edu/• http://www.defense.gov/news/briefingslide.aspx?briefingslideid=182• http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/nasa-plans-armageddon-spacecraft-to-blast-asteroid-215924/• http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-138• http://www.missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.17/system_detail.asp• http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12842&page=1• http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/mission/index.html• http://www.strath.ac.uk/space/research/missionsystems/asteroiddeflectiontechnologies/

Backup Slides

Interceptor Options

• Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)– Only takes 3 hours to set

up battery of 10 missiles– Max possible ΔV of only

10 km/s– Complete missile – hard

to modify– 12 m long, 1 m wide

• NASA “Cradle”– To carry B83 nuc– 8.9 m long, 11,035 kg– Planned to use un-

funded Ares V launch vehicle

The Need for Nuclear• The momentum/energy transfer created by a shallow subsurface nuclear explosion is at least 100 times more effective than that of a standoff nuclear explosion• Extensive research shows only 3% of asteroid mass to impact Earth with a 15 days lead time• Only 0.2% if intercepted along the asteroid trajectory, i.e. anti-parallel

• If capable of launching with a greater lead time, the probability of impacted mass as well as nuclear fallout greatly decreases• This 15 day period is simply a last resort limit

Testing

• Asteroid surveying missions not only raise awareness , but also detect possible test sites for the GOLD project• Optimal candidate:• Impact point behind Earth, to decrease nuclear fallout risk• Size of asteroid should start large and decrease to test sensor capabilities• Possible candidates

• 2012 DA14 in February 2013• 99942 Apophis which will have 2 flybys, 2029 and April 2036

• Liens:• The trajectories will be better understood• First shot without active nuclear device

• Can increase in fidelity from there