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Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015

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Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska

Damian BilbaoDirector, Business Development Alaska LNGNovember 2015

Worlds first LNG Tanker

Page 3: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

LNG Tankers Today

Page 4: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

Alaska was a pioneer of the modern LNG industry:LNG trade flows in 1970

Source:�BP�Internal

LNG export 5 Mtpa (0.65 bcf/d)

LNG import 10 Mtpa (1.3 bcf/d)

Page 5: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

South East Asia to Japan and Algeria to Europe trades dominating global scene by mid 1980s

LNG export 5 Mtpa

LNG import 10 MtpaSource:�BP�Statistical�Review�of�World�Energy

Page 6: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

Little change in the nature of global LNG trade by mid 1990s but still scaling up

LNG export 5 Mtpa

LNG import 10 MtpaSource:�BP�Statistical�Review�of�World�Energy

Page 7: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

By 2005, broader Atlantic Basin market evolving and Mid East suppliers beginning to play balancing role

LNG export 5 Mtpa

LNG import 10 MtpaSource:�BP�Statistical�Review�of�World�Energy

Page 8: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

LNG has now evolved into a global businessLNG trade flows in 2015

Source:�BP�Statistical�Review�of�World�Energy

LNG export 5 Mtpa

LNG import 10 Mtpa

Page 9: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

33 LNG trains under construction will add 143 Mtpa capacity by the end of 2018, increasing global production by ~50%

Source:�project�announcements

Page 10: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

A similar volume of prospective capacity is attempting to move Final Investment Decision

Under construction

Prospective (not exhaustive) Source:�project�announcements

Page 11: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

Likely that market will favor LNG buyers over at least the early portion of Alaska LNG development cycle

• Prices have weakened on lower oil prices and weak

Asian demand

• Successful projects will need to be cost competitive

and flexible

• Buyers have multiple options for next generation of

new supply

• Asian growth to remain strong, led by China

Page 12: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

Alaska LNG – Keys to Success

• Competitive cost of supply

• Parties aligned on solutions

• Reputation as a reliable future energy source

Page 13: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

Page 14: Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska · Global LNG Markets: Implications for Alaska Damian Bilbao Director, Business Development Alaska LNG November 2015. Worlds first LNG

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