global migration and demography mexican …...immigration today • mismatch between data and...

Mexican Immigration to the U.S.: New Estimates, Trends and CharacteristicsJeffrey S. Passel

Global Migration and Demography

Senior Demographer

Forging a New Path in North American Trade & ImmigrationFederal Reserve Bank of DallasDallas, TX—26-27 September 2019

Pew Research Center

Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world.

We conduct public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. We do not take policy positions.

We are a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, our primary funder.

www.pewhispanic.org

Immigration today• Mismatch between data and political rhetoric• Unauthorized immigrant #s lowest since ‘04

– Unauthorized immigrant numbers grew rapidly, 1990 to 2007– Dramatic declines for 2 years then slow drop

• Mexican mass migration has essentially stopped– Drop in unauthorized since ‘07 due entirely to Mexican reversal

• “New” unauthorized are mostly visa overstayers– Apprehensions of Mexicans are at a 50-year low– Deterrence seems to be working on Mexicans

• Low flow and origin shifts have consequences– Longer duration of residence & more families– Lawful immigration numbers remain unchanged– Key Labor force role for immigrants today & in the future

.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103.641 .377 .454.222 .486 .576

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)

Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population

Source: Pew Research Center estimates based censuses and augmented CPS (1995-2004) and ACS (2005-2017)..

Mexican population in US grew slowly before ‘80;By 1970, “only” about ¾ million Mexicans in US

Mexican migrants in US (millions) Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born

760,000(1970 Census)

Flood TideBraceroBeginnings

Deportations


Acceleration from unauthorized immigration;Almost 17-fold increase to 12.8 million by 2007

.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103.641 .377 .454.222 .486 .576

2.2

4.5

9.4

8%

16%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population

760,000(1970 Census)

12,800,000(2007 ACS--Adjusted)

31%



Deportations

ContradictionUndocumented


Growth ceases & dramatically reverses, 2007-2010;Steady downward drift as returns to Mexico continue


.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103

12.8

9.4

4.5

2.2.760.576.486.222 .454.377.641

16%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population 11,600,000(2017 ACS--Adjusted)


DeportationsCessation

ContradictionUndocumented

5.7

8.6

12.2

3.53

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Shaded area represents 90% confidence interval

Source: Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology.

Unauthorized immigrants reached 12+ million in ’07 —NET growth of 500,000 per year for 17 years

Unauthorized immigrants(millions)

5.7

8.6

12.2

11.3

3.53

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


Sudden reversal after ’07 —DROP of 500,000 per year for two years



5.7

8.6

12.2

11.3 11.1

3.5

10.7

11.0

10.5

3

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


Stable for ‘09-’14, then real declines in ’15-’17;unauthorized immigrant #s drop to ’04 (!) level



2.9

4.5

6.4

6.9

2.0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Shaded/dotted areas represents 90% confidence interval


Mexico

Unauthorized Mexicans peaked ’07, too;Dropped by 500,000 over next 2 years


2.9

4.5

6.4

6.9

5.85.9

2.0

5.6 5.4

4.9

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016



Mexico

Unlike total, Mexican declines continue —Down by 2 million (!) from peak


5.5

5.05.3

4.1

2.8

5.2

1.5

5.3 5.3

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016



Other countries

Unauthorized from countries other than Mexico show rapid increase to ’07; small increase since


5.5

5.05.3

4.1

2.8

5.2

1.5

5.3 5.3

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2.9

4.5

6.9

6.4

4.9

5.4

2.0

5.9 5.8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016



Mexico

Other countries

Mexicans decline to LESS THAN HALF of unauthorized immigrants for the 1st time ever


900

475

650

140 25

0

775

500

130 25

0

1,3001,5

00

1,450

475

1,900

CentralAmer.

SouthAmer.

Caribbean Asia Europe-Canada

MiddleEast

Africa

2007 2017

Mexico down 2 million since ‘07; Central America, Asia – UP;

South America, Europe-Canada - DOWN; Others stableUnauthorized immigrants

(thousands)


Next 4 countries all up for 2007-2017;Then next 4 unchanged

Source: Pew Research Center based on augmented 2017 ACS. ↓↑ indicates change since 2007.

400

600

750

160

240

160

375

525

Philippines

Brazil

Dom.Rep.

China

Honduras↑

India↑

Guatemala↑

El Salvador↑

Unauthorized immigrant population (thousands)

About one-in-four U.S. immigrantsare unauthorized

Total U.S. foreign-bornPopulation: 45.6 million

Unauthorized immigrants10.4 million (23%)

Naturalizedcitizens20.7 million(45%)

Source: Pew Research Center based on augmented 2017 ACS.

Lawful immigrants35.2 million (77%)

Lawfulpermanentresidents12.3 million(27%)

Temporary Lawfulresidents2.2 million (5%)

Unauthorized immigrant populationdominated by Mexico, Latin America

775

1,900

1,450

900

4,950475

Central America

Other regions

Asia

Caribbean

SouthAmerica

Total10.5 million Mexico

Unauthorized immigrantpopulation (thousands)


Mexico is largest single source oflegal immigrants, also

5.5

7.91.6

1.710.6

6.5Other Latin

America(24%)

Europe &Canada(16%)

Asia—South &East (31%)

Total33.8 million

Mexico (19%)Legal immigrantpopulation (millions)

Africa, Other (5%)

MENA (5%)


720

916

798

655 647

850

1,059 1,059

704

958

1,122

1,266

1,0521,1071,131

1,0431,0621,032

9911,0161,051

1,1841,127

1,097

90164 147 132 148 174 206 219

116175 161 174 149 190 165 139 143 146 135 134 159 175 171 162

1995 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015 '16 '17 '18

All other

Mexico

Source: DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics and supporting data..

Legal admissions unchanged since ‘01 (exc. ‘03)“Green cards” exceed 1 million/yr routinely

Lawful permanent immigrants admittedby fiscal year (thousands) Average Admissions, ’01-’18

1,059,000

Unauthorized immigrants andcontrol of the Border

Implications of changing patterns• Growth through ‘07 and then decline driven by Mexican immigrants• Drop in “new arrivals” also driven by Mexicans• Most unauthorized from places other than Mexico & Central America

are visa overstayers• The southern border is generally “secure”

– Apprehensions of Mexicans are at a 50-year low– Central Americans (esp. families) are not trying to evade capture– Strong deterrence from (1)_urban fencing; (2)_Border Patrol build up;

(3)_technology; and (4) violence in northern Mexico– Evading capture is very difficult– Costly and risky to sneak into or re-enter the US

• Unauthorized immigrants increasingly rooted in the US– Time in the US has gone up markedly– Families with children – High labor force participation for men, low for women

155113130

1,636 1,637

219

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Apprehensions of Mexicans in 2017-18Lower still lowest since 1968

Deportable Mexicans located (000s)

Source: Department of Homeland Security and INS, CBP apprehension statistics

Mexicans

249155113

130

1,636 1,637

219

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Non-Mexican apprehensions exceed Mexicans, but total still low

Deportable alienslocated (000s)

Mexicans

Non-Mexicans

Source: Department of Homeland Security and INS, CBP apprehension statistics

12.5

10.2

9.0

3.8

El Salvador Guatemala Honduras OtherCentral

America

Mexico Canada OtherCountries

Cross-border entries are the main source of unauthorized immigrants for Northern Triangle countries and Mexico;

Not overstays of legal visa arrivalsRatio of border apprehensions (CBP)

to estimated in-country overstays (DHS),fiscal 2015-2017, average

Northern Triangle, total: 10.5

Source: DHS apprehensions from CBP and Overstay reports for FY 2015-2017.

12.5

10.2

9.0

0.2 0.04

3.8

0.002

El Salvador Guatemala Honduras OtherCentral

America

Mexico Canada OtherCountries

Apprehensions for other countries(even others in Central America)

pale in comparison to visa overstaysRatio of border apprehensions (CBP)

to estimated in-country overstays (DHS),fiscal 2015-2017, average

Northern Triangle, total: 10.5

Source: DHS apprehensions from CBP and Overstay reports for FY 2015-2017.

Drop in “New Arrivals” especially large for Mexico (-75%) versus others (-1% overall)

40%

23%

17%

20%

24%

425

85

75

100

170

725

375

80

95

170

13%

52%

11%

Total

Other countries

Asia

Northern Triangle

Mexico

Unauthorized immigrants (000s)

Annual arrivals (avg.) Annual arrivals (avg.)2012-17 2002-07

No. Share No. Share

Source: Pew Research Center based on augmented 2017 & 2007 ACS.

New unauthorized immigrants in 2017 areNOT illegal entrants(#) but likely overstays(*)

13%8%

23%

18%

18%

20%

CentralAmerica #

Other regions*(Europe, MENA, Africa)

Asia*

Caribbean* South America*

AnnualAverage425,000

Mexico #

Share of unauthorizedimmigrants arriving

2012-17

Source: Pew Research Center based on augmented 2017 ACS

ApproximateOverstays (*)

62%260,000/year

Immigrant families & children

36 38

3630

2316 17

20%

33 35

3841

50

63 64 66%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Increasing % of unauthorized immigrant adults in the US for many years

Share of unauthorized Immigrant adults

Source: Pew Research Center based on augmented 1995-2003 CPS, 2005-2017 ACS

5 years or less in US

More than 10 years in US

36 37

34

27

18

8 88%

36 37

4145

58

75 77 83%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Unauthorized Mexican immigrant adults have been here even longer

Share of unauthorized Immigrant adults

5 years or less in US

More than 10 years in US


8.7

12.1

16.815.3

7.3

9.5

17.7

7.8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

“Typical” Mexican unauthorized immigrant came in the 20th century, not the 21st

Median years in U.S. for unauthorized MexicanImmigrant adults


Immigrants, especially unauthorized,more likely to be couples with children

43%

32%

18%

UnauthorizedImmigrant

Households

Legal ImmigrantHouseholds

U.S. NativeHouseholds

Percent of group’s householdsthat are couples with children,

2016


Immigrants & the workforce

91%

61%

85%

67%

79%73%

Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64)

Unauthorized ImmigrantsLawful ImmigrantsU.S. Born

Immigrant men work more than natives;Women work less

Percent in labor force,2017


5.6

8.0

7.3 7.6

3.6

8.2 8.1 7.8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Unauthorized immigrant workforce trending down;Under 8 million — lowest since 2005

Unauthorized immigrant workers(millions)

3.9%

5.0% 4.8%5.2%5.4%

4.7%

2.7%

4.6%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017


Unauthorized immigrant share of workforce —Continues to down to lowest share since 2003

Unauthorized immigrant workershare of civilian labor force(percent)


Natives and US-born children of current immigrants have driven growth in working ages

60

100

140

180

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Working-age population,ages 25-64 (millions)

86

Projected

Source: Pew Research Center (2015) “historic” projections.

173

118

138

Actual

Immigrants(1st generation)

US born with immigrant parents(2nd generation)

US born with US-born parents(3rd+ generations)

Next 20 years, ALL growth comes from NEWimmigrants and US-born children of current immigrants


60

100

140

180

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Working-age population,ages 25-64 (millions)

183

86

Projected

US born with US-born parents(3rd+ generations)

173

118

138

Actual

US born with immigrant parents(2nd generation)

Immigrants(1st generation)

Without FUTURE immigrants, working-age population would decrease by 2035

60

100

140

180

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Working-age population,ages 25-64 (millions) 183

166

86

Projected

Projected without2015-2035immigration

18 milliondifferencedue to2015-2035immigration

173

118

138


There’s a lot more in the reports! Thank you! Questions?

Contact InformationJeffrey S. PasselSenior Demographer

[email protected]

202-527-2146 (mobile)202-419-3625 (direct)

Global Migration and Demography

global migration and demography mexican …...immigration today • mismatch between data and...

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