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Global perspectives and international initiatives
The Role of Biofuels in achieving the Paris Agreement
Adam Brown
Energy Insights Ltd
Brussels, 18 June 2019
Bioenergy - key role in low carbon futures
IEA Bioenergy Roadmap 2017
0
20
40
60
80
2015 2030 2060
EJ Other
Electricity
Transport
Industry
2X
3X
Progress in biofuels still off track
Source; IEA TCEP Report, 27 May 2019
Growth concentrated in Asia
Source: IEA Renewables 2018
Rodrigo Leme International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
The role of liquid biofuels in the Global Energy Transformation
This presentation has been prepared based on the report:
The report is available for download from
http://www.irena.org/publications.
A pathway for a well-below 2°C climate targetThe carbon budget is set to run out by 2030 based on current plans and policies
Energy-related emissions need to fall by 3.5% per year for Paris Agreement compliance.
IRENA’s decarbonization pathwayRenewables must go up and energy demand must decline
Renewable energy and energy efficiency can deliver 90% of energy-emissions reductions.
IRENA’s decarbonization pathwayBioenergy has a decisive role in the Energy Transformation
Not only in road, water and air transport, but also in buildings, industry, heat and power.
IRENA’s decarbonization pathwayBiofuels contribute 20% to transport energy demand
Biofuels must grow from 3% in 2016 to 20% of the final energy consumption in 2050.
IRENA’s decarbonization pathwayKey indicators of the transport sector
▪ Today, the transport sector represents around 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
▪ These measures reduce emissions by 70%.
▪ Biofuels grow from 129 billion litres in 2016 to 652 billion litres in 2050.
▪ That is a five-fold growth in volume, including both conventional and advanced biofuels.
Global biofuel investment trends are decliningInvestment in renewables and biofuels must ramp up
More than 100 refineries would be needed annually at an investment of USD 20+ billion per year.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual Investments in Biofuels (billion US$)
Biofuels 2G biofuels
In the past, the industry has exceeded the US$20 billion level that is needed for biofuels.
Source: BNEF
Actions needed nowThe role of governments around the world is decisive
Eliminate fossil fuel subsidies
Implement carbon pricing policies
Adopt stable, long-term
policy framework
Reduce the cost of
financing
Remove barriers to
international trade on biofuels
Develop international quality and
sustainability standards
Strategic Goals
Identification of the main barriers to the growth of the bioeconomy and ways to overcome them.
• Lack of finance…• Competitivity…• Unfavorable policy
frameworks…• Limited feedstock
supply…
Key lesson: a complete policy package needed to enable sustainable bioeconomy scale up
Lesson 1: the sustainable low carbon bioeconomy has to be policy driven at this stage to overcome barriers to growth and reach competitive scale
Lesson 2: A complete policy package is recommended to create an enabling environment; isolated measures are probably not enough.
Biofuture Platform Strategic Goals:
1. Policy guidance and convergence2. Appropriate financing mechanisms3. A working sustainability governance
and understanding4. Technical and technological cooperation
The Biofuture
Platform can
help articulate
concerted
effort by
countries and
stakeholders
What’s next? A collective effort of
international initiatives to provide common
goods to countries
Policy debate, country ownership,
advancedbioeconomy
Sustainability, capacity building,
cooperation
Agricultural and biomass practices
Scientific and Technical
collaboration
Energy analysis, knowledge
Renewable energydeployment, developmentcooperation
Research and innovationpromotion, colaboration
Private sector link
Finance, green bonds
Sustainable biofuels in a lowcarbon economy
Enough fossil for all!
Fossil88%
Biofuels11%
Electricity1%
2017
SSB 2019 [12.06.2019]
Fossil96%
Bio3%
El1%
2013
Fossil96%
Bio
3%
El1%
2014
Fossil96%
Bio
3%
El1%
2015
Fossil92%
Bio7%
El1%
2016
Fossil88%
Bio11%
El1%
2017
Enough fossil for all!
SSB 2019 [12.06.2019]
National implementation of REDII in conjunction with Action 8 of the SET Plan,
Finland
Deputy Director General Timo Ritonummi
Energy Department
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment
18 June 2019
Brussels
REDII and Finland
• REDII: Share of RE (Energy end-use) in EU at least 32 % in 2030
• Share of RE in MS not lower than 2020 level (FI 38 %) in 2030
• MS set (in NECPs) national, (indicative) RE-targets: draft NECPs
published, EC comments soon, final NECPs by end of 2019
• REDII implementation by 30th June 2021
• In Finland some legislation, but national policies and measures are more that enough
• New government (6.6.2019): Finland Carbon neutral by 2035, old goal RE 50 % 2030
2.7.2019Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland • www.tem.fi 3
REDII and transport – Finland and EU
• One key sectors to address in Greenhouse gas reduction (-40 % … or more in 2030,
by 2050 zero) is Transport Sector: ”E10 is not enough at all”
• Politicians (and public) have often only one thing and solution in mind: now it is EV
• EV (Battery, Plug-in), Fuel Cell & Hydrogen, biogas, liquid biofuels, electrofuels…
• All solutions are needed and fast! ”Only EV” is too slow way – and other limits!
• Existing vehicle fleet must start using renewable drop-ins – rehabilation of Diesel
• The distribution system must keep up (charging, Hydrogen, gas, different tanks…)
• In Finland gas vehicle fleet is small, smaller than EV fleet, both growing fast
2.7.2019Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland • www.tem.fi 4
REDII and SET-Plan Action 8
• SET-Plan Action 8: Bioenergy and Renewable Fuels for Sustainable Transportation
• Both Bioenergy for Power and Heat and transport fuels
• Transport: bio-based liquid and gas, hydrogen (& Fuel Cells), electrofuels
• SET-Plan is to accelerate technology development and usage
• SET-Plan has 10 Actions and for them 14 Implementation Plans (IPs)
• SET-Plan Action 8 Implementation Working Group has kick-off meeting on FRI 28/6
in EERA-office in Brussels.
2.7.2019Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland • www.tem.fi 5
Renewable energy share of final and of total energy consumption (1970-2017/2018)
2.7.2019Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland • www.tem.fi 6
Source: Statistics Finland, Eurostat
Renewable energy 1960 – 2018
2.7.2019Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland • www.tem.fi 7
Source: Statistics Finland
Thank you!
Kiitos!
John Cooper – Director General
European Climate Strategy and Liquid Fuels:
The Vision of the European Refining Industry
18th June 2019EUSEW AFF event, Brussels
Page 2
FuelsEurope represents 40 Member Companies ≈ 100% of EU Refining
Change in world oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario of IEA WEO 2017
Page 3IEA WEO 2017
Aviation and energy storage
(1) http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-electric-aircraft-20160830-snap-story.html
Jet fuel Electric battery
100 tons1
Boeing 787
230 tons
at take-off
2000 tons1
JET FUEL
Page 5
We have the technologies…
Page 5
Multiple technologies can be deployed together to give significant reduction in carbon intensity of liquid fuels
Co
mb
ined
Car
bo
n In
ten
sity
Red
uct
ion
Increasing substitution of Petroleum with new feedstocks and components
Reduced carbon footprint of Petroleum refining
Refinery Efficiency
StandardNew proposed
strategyCurrent first
examples
Green Hydrogen
CCUSTechnology
SustainableBiofuels
Advanced Biofuels
Power-to-Liquids
Fuel Quality
Page 6
The technologies are being developed….
…….and this is just a sample of all the R&D and Innovation projects currently underway
Page 7
So if we are moving on from petroleum based fuels, do we still need refineries?
Page 8
The refinery as an ENERGY HUB within an INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER
CCS / CCU
Bio-feedstocks
RenewableElectricity
CO2
Waste
Residualheat
Crude oil
StandardCurrent first
examplesNew proposed
strategy
Low-GHG fuels
Low GHGPetrochemicals
Low-GHG products
• Compliance with Renewable Energy Directive.
• Low-Carbon Fuels for compliance with Vehicle regulation.
• Evolution of Fuel Taxation.
• Post-2030 Evolution of EU Carbon Policy (ETS).
What Policy Tools are possible?
Page 9
• ETS € 20 €/TCO2
• Renewable Energy Directive (Transport) € 200 - 470
• Fuel Tax € 200 - 300
• Car CO2 Regulation € 500
European Climate Policies – Effective Carbon Price Signals
Page 10
Page 11
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Compliance with Truck CO2 standards
Leverages: Engine efficiency
Weight reductionAerodynamics
Hybridisation/electrificationCO2 credits from fuel
Compliance with RED
LOW-C FUEL
RED CERTIFICATE
CO2 CREDIT CERTIFICATE
X
• It’s a strong lever, especially in Europe.
• It’s already on the table for discussion...
• As a disincentive to consumption, or?
• As a tool to support higher cost low carbon fuels?
• Contributing to climate mitigation elsewhere?
Rethinking Fuel Taxation
Page 12
• The world will need low carbon liquid fuels.
• We have the technologies...
• European policies can make this attractive and affordable,
• ... And can help develop the technologies for wider use.
• Evolution of Fuel Taxation and Carbon policy can maintain a role for liquid fuels for the long-term,in a carbon-constrained world.
Conclusions
Page 13
FuelsEurope
165, Boulevard du Souverain
1160 Brussels - Belgium
T: +32 2 566 91 00
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
This document was presented by:
John Cooper, Director General
FuelsEurope Vision 2050
A Pathway for the Evolution of the Refining Industry and Liquid Fuels
https://www.fuelseurope.eu/vision-2050/