global population age structures and sustainable …...global population age structures and...
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Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development
Nicole Mun Sim Lai
United Nations Population Division
Expert Group Meeting on Changing Population Age
Structures and Sustainable Development
New York, 13-14 October 2016
I. Changing Population Age Structure: Disparities and Drivers
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Perc
enta
ge o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
Year
Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050
16%
50%
8%
0-14 children
15-24 youth
25-64 working age
65+ older persons
49%
14%
21% 26%
16%
The share of older persons is set to double by 2050, while the share of children and youth will decline. The working-age population is expected to stay at one half of the population.
Data source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Africa
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Asia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
LAC
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Northern America
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Europe
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oceania
Europe, Northern America, LAC and Asia are ageing, while Africa has a very young population
Data source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Perc
enta
ge o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
Perc
enta
ge o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
0-14 years 15-24 years 25-64 years 65+ years
Fertility decline is, by far, the most
important driver of population ageing
• Mortality decline occurs among both
younger and older age groups, with little
overall effect on the age distribution
• Fertility decline reduces the number of
births, gradually shifting the balance from
young people towards older people in the
population
4.7 5.1
5.5 5.8 4.9
3.3 2.5 2.4 2.2
1.6 2.2 1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
TFR
Ch
ildre
n p
er
wo
man
2010-2015
Data source: World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision
Fertility remains high in many countries in Sub-Sahara Africa; it has fallen to low levels in most other regions.
2.5
64
33 28
17 23
40
53
64 59
68 69 73 75
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01020304050607080
Contraceptive use TFR
Per
cen
tage
Ch
ildre
n p
er
wo
man
2015 2010-2015
Data sources: World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision and Trends in Contraceptive Use Worldwide 2015
A majority of married or in-union women use contraceptives, but prevalence is low in Western and Middle Africa
12
22 24 24 26 24 15 13 15
10 10 11 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01020304050607080
Contraceptive use Unmet need for family planning TFR
Per
cen
tage
Ch
ildre
n p
er
wo
man
2015 2015 2010-2015
Data sources: World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision and Trends in Contraceptive Use Worldwide 2015
Unmet need for family planning is highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where contraceptive use is low and fertility is high
25%
9%
23%
39% 51% 52%
71%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
World Africa Asia LAC Europe Oceania N America
Ch
ange
in li
fe e
xpe
ctan
cy a
t b
irth
(ye
ars)
0 to 4 years 5 to 59 years 60 years or over
Contribution of mortality decline at different ages to improvements in the life expectancy at birth between 1995-2000 and 2010-2015
Source: World Population Ageing Report 2015
Improvements in survival at age 60+ accounted for more than half of the total improvement in longevity in Oceania, Europe and N. America, while reduced mortality at younger ages was more important in Africa,
Asia and LAC.
Can population ageing be slowed
or reversed? • Population ageing is in many ways a
demographic success story, driven by changes in fertility and mortality that are associated with economic and social development.
• But the changes in population age structure brought on by sustained low fertility pose challenges, including an expanding older population and shrinking workforce to pay for social services and pensions and to drive economic growth
Government migration policy and ageing concerns in the past 5 years, 2015
9 12
50
4 10 9
61
20 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nointervention/noofficial policy/no
data
Lower Maintain Raise
Major concern
Minor concern
Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Kazakhstan, Rep Korea, Lithuania,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian, Rwanda, Sweden,
Thailand, Ukraine, Uruguay
Barbados, Belize, France, Ghana, Greece, Iran, Seychelles, Switzerland, UK
Nu
mb
er o
f co
un
trie
s Governments that consider populating ageing as major
concern are more likely to have policies to maintain or raise regular immigration into their countries.
Ageing concern
Source: World Population Policies 2015
II. Social and Economic Implications and Policy Priorities for Sustainable
Development
Sustainable Development
• Sustainable development entails meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs
• The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development embraces 3 core elements: economic growth, social inclusion and environmental protection, to be achieved through 17 goals
• Demographic change and population age structure affect the trajectory of development, and the type of policies best suited to each stage of the demographic transition
Philippines, 1999 (young age structure) Germany, 2003 (aged population)
Source: National Transfer Accounts Manual, United Nations 2013.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+
Agg
rega
te f
low
s (b
illio
n p
eso
s)
Labor income
Consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+
Agg
reat
e f
low
s (b
illio
n e
uro
s)
Consumption
Labor income
Economic consequences of population age structures are also determined by the characteristics of the economic life cycle
Child deficits are large Old-age deficits are larger than child deficits
How economic life cycle is being financed has important implications on fiscal sustainability and welfare of individuals
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+
Agg
rega
te v
alu
es
(bill
ion
pe
sos)
Age
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Public transfers Private transfers
Public asset-based reallocations Private asset-based reallocationsA
ggre
gate
val
ue
s (b
illio
n e
uro
s)
Age
Old age is financed by asset income and some private transfers
Public transfers financed substantially old age
Public transfers are as large as private transfers for children
Data source: computed from the NTA database. Available at http://www.ntaccounts.org/
Philippines, 1999 Germany, 2003
Children deficits are mainly financed by private transfers
A balance approach to old-age support by having asset income, increase labour supply at older ages, public social protection may yield less fear from population ageing
Economic Implications and Policies • How to spark demographic transition by
addressing human development challenges and speeding up the decline in fertility needed to raise working-age population to boost economic growth?
• How to accelerate job creation to grab the first demographic dividend for countries with large share of working-age population?
• How to prepare for rapid ageing population for countries facing high share of older population soon, especially for countries without sound social protection system?
• How to maintain population welfare and economic growth with rapid ageing?
• What are the implications for gender and social equality, intergenerational equity, and individual behavioral change (i.e. living arrangement, health)?
Economic Implications and Policies
Acknowledgement
Colleagues of Population Division, including Jorge Bravo, Patrick Gerland, Sara Hertog, Nan Li, and Vladimira Kantorova, have contributed comments and review of this presentation
Thank you
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A. alone B. couple C. skippedgeneration
D1. withyoung kids
D2. with adultkids only
NT
th
ou
sa
nd
s
private education
private health
private other
public education
public health
public other
average C
Source: Tung and Lai, 2013
Mean Consumption of Older Persons by Living Arrangement
Migration can contribute to population growth, especially where fertility is low
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mill
ion
s
Africa
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Mill
ion
s
Europe
0
10
20
30
40
Mill
ion
s
Northern America
International migration is expected to add modestly to the working-age populations of some regions
0
250
500
750
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pop
ula
tio
n a
ged
15
-64
(m
illio
ns)
Medium variant Zero net migration
Working age population, Medium variant vs. Zero net migration (starting in 2015)
Europe
Northern America
8 per cent larger in
2050
18 per cent
larger in 2050