global response of u.s. military captain wil granados captain cliff wakeman
DESCRIPTION
GLOBAL RESPONSE OF U.S. MILITARY CAPTAIN WIL GRANADOS CAPTAIN CLIFF WAKEMAN. BACKSTORY. REAL-WORLD PROBLEM. Conflict between North Korea and South Korea China is in alliance with North Korea US to send 500 companies to Eastern Asia Conflict between Iran and Iraq - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL RESPONSEOF
U.S. MILITARY
CAPTAIN WIL GRANADOSCAPTAIN CLIFF WAKEMAN
BACKSTORY
REAL-WORLD PROBLEM
Conflict between North Korea and South Korea
China is in alliance with North Korea
US to send 500 companies to Eastern Asia
Conflict between Iran and Iraq
North African countries in alliance with Iran
US to send 1000 companies to Middle East
Tsunami devastated Pacific coastline of South America
US to send 250 companies to Southern South America
ANALYSIS QUESTIONS
What is the optimal minimum cost flow for our given scenario with no attacks?
What are the optimal attack plans on our network?
What are the optimal responses given the various attacks?
Is it possible to completely stop the US from supplyingtroops to the regions of interest?
THE WORLD
MCB PENDLETON
MCB HAWAII
MCB LEJEUNE
AL UDEID AB
INCIRLIK ABMCB OKINAWA
PAYA LEBAR AB
RAMSTEIN AB
AUSTRALIA
MALAYSIA
EASTERN ASIA
CHINA
WESTERN ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
RUSSIA
SOUTH AFRICA
NORTH AFRICA
EUROPE
ANTARCTICA
SOUTHERNSOUTH AMERICA
NORTHERNSOUTH AMERICA
CENTRAL AMERICA
CARIBBEANMEXICO
CANADA
GREENLANDARCTIC REGION
GLOBAL NODE LAYOUT
GLOBAL NETWORK
ABSTRACT NETWORK
NODES DATA
Supply for basesMCB_Pendleton 600 MCB_Lejeune 600 MCB_Okinawa 450 Ramstein_AB 450 MCB_Hawaii 300 Incirlik_AB 300 Udeid_AB 150 Leber_AB 150
Demand for regionsMiddle_East 1000 Eastern_Asia 500Southern_SouthAmerica 250
1 unit supply/demand = 1 company of Marines (~200 Marines)
ARCS DATA
Distance scaled, relative, abstract map units (AMU)
Capacity 400 if Distance ≤ 20 AMU 300 if 20 AMU < Distance ≤ 40 AMU 200 if Distance > 40 AMU
CostFactor 1 if arc source node is a base 1.3 if arc source node is a region
Cost [MOE] Distance × CostFactor × $100,000 / 27
MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
max, ( , )
min ( ( ))
. .
ij ij ij i j ij jY UnsatSD i j E j V
c d X W W Y nC UnsatSD
s t min cost flow network constraints
Total cost = Primal objective value - nCmax∑(unsatisfied supply)
X and W interdictions derived in dual MIP
ATTACKS ON NETWORK
Alliance Attack Country in alliance with aggressor,
cutting off flow into region containing country
Resource Attack Country attacking one of our bases,
cutting off flow into or out of that base
Political Attack Country forming pact with other country,
forcing use of more expensive alternate routes
MODELING ATTACKS
Attacks on nodes Manual setting of unusable region (alliance) Optimal interdiction of bases (resources)
numberResourceAttacks ≤ 8
Attacks on arcs Optimal interdiction of arcs (political)
numberPoliticalAttacks ≤ 8
SCENARIO 0
NO ATTACKS
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITHNO ATTACKS
GLOBAL RESPONSE OF US MILITARY******************************************nCmax = 7670000******************************************Solution to MinCostFlow with no network interdictions: MCB_Lejeune --> Northern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> Southern_Sou --> 200.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Incirlik_AB --> 100.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Europe --> 50.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Middle_East --> 300.0 unit(s) Incirlik_AB --> Middle_East --> 400.0 unit(s) Udeid_AB --> Middle_East --> 150.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Middle_East --> 100.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> China --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> Eastern_Asia --> 400.0 unit(s) Northern_Sou --> Southern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) Europe --> Middle_East --> 50.0 unit(s) China --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s)Supply and demand not satisfied: MCB_Hawaii --> -300.0 unit(s) MCB_Pendleton --> -600.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> -350.0 unit(s)Total cost = $160,722,221******************************************Political attack plan with 0 attack(s):******************************************Resource attack plan with 0 attack(s):******************************************
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITHNO ATTACKS
Solution to MinCostFlow with interdictions in place: MCB_Lejeune --> Northern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> Southern_Sou --> 200.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Incirlik_AB --> 100.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Europe --> 50.0 unit(s) Ramstein_AB --> Middle_East --> 300.0 unit(s) Incirlik_AB --> Middle_East --> 400.0 unit(s) Udeid_AB --> Middle_East --> 150.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Middle_East --> 100.0 unit(s) Lebar_AB --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> China --> 50.0 unit(s) MCB_Okinawa --> Eastern_Asia --> 400.0 unit(s) Northern_Sou --> Southern_Sou --> 50.0 unit(s) Europe --> Middle_East --> 50.0 unit(s) China --> Eastern_Asia --> 50.0 unit(s)Supply and demand not satisfied: MCB_Hawaii --> -300.0 unit(s) MCB_Pendleton --> -600.0 unit(s) MCB_Lejeune --> -350.0 unit(s)Total cost = $160,722,221******************************************Primal objective = 9748222083.0Dual objective = 9748222083.0******************************************END OF OUTPUT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
SCENARIO 1
ALLIANCE ATTACKS ONLY
Alliance AttackCountry in alliance with aggressor, cutting off flow into region containing country
ALLIANCE ATTACKS
Alliance attacks China Northern_Africa
Remaining supply MCB_Hawaii 300 MCB_Pendleton 600 MCB_Lejeune 350
Total cost: $161,000,000
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
SCENARIO 2
RESOURCE ATTACKS ONLY
Resource AttackCountry attacking one of our bases, cutting off flow into or out of that base
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH RESOURCE ATTACKS
13422
12293 S So America 250
11148 S So America 250 Eastern Asia 500
S So America 250 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 1000
8969 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 1000 none
6678 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 850 none Lebar
3273 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 800 none Udeid Udeid
Total Cost ($M) 602 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 500 none Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii
Unsatisfied Demand
399 none Middle East 50 none Incirlik Incirlik Incirlik Incirlik
none Pendleton 50 none Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein
Remaining Supply
Pendleton 500 Hawaii 300 Pendleton Pendleton Pendleton Pendleton Pendleton Pendleton
Hawaii 300 Ramstein Lejeune Lejeune Lejeune Lejeune Lejeune Lejeune
Locations Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa
# Attacks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE
0 2 4 6 8
020
0040
0060
0080
0010
000
1200
014
000
Number Resource Attacks
Cos
t (FY
2050
M U
SD
)
399 602
6678
3273
8969
1114812293
13422
161
SCENARIO 3
POLITICAL ATTACKS ONLY
Political AttackCountry forming pact with other country, forcing use of more expensive alternate routes
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
3963
Eastern Asia 500
2518 Lebar 50
Eastern Asia 300 Okinawa 450
2029 Okinawa 300 Lejeune 350
681 S So America 250 Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600
293 S So America 50 Lejeune 600 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300
261 none Lejeune 400 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Middle East - Eastern Asia
237 none Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Western Asia - Eastern Asia
Western Asia - Eastern Asia
Total Cost ($M) 209 none Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Antartica - S So America
Udeid - Eastern Asia
Udeid - Eastern Asia
Unsatisfied Demand
none Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 N So America - S So America
N So America - S So America
Russia - Eastern Asia
Russia - Eastern Asia
Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Caribbean - S So America
Caribbean - S So America
Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Remaining Supply
Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Central America - S So America
Central America - S So America
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Hawaii 300 Okinawa - China
China - Eastern Asia
China - Eastern Asia
Mexico - S So America
Mexico - S So America
China - Eastern Asia
China - Eastern Asia
Locations Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Lejeune - S So America
Lejeune - S So America
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
# Attacks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITHPOLITICAL ATTACKS
OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE
0 2 4 6 8
010
0020
0030
0040
00
Number Political Attacks
Cos
t (FY
2050
M U
SD
)
209 237 293261681
2518
3963
161
2029
SCENARIO 4
ALLIANCE ATTACKS+
RESOURCE ATTACKS
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITHALLIANCE ATTACKS AND
RESOURCE ATTACKS 13422
12293 S So America 250
11148 S So America 250 Eastern Asia 500
S So America 250 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 1000
8972 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 1000 none
3666 6681 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 850 none Lebar
Eastern Asia 350 Eastern Asia 350 Middle East 800 none Udeid Udeid
Total Cost ($M) 719 Middle East 50 Middle East 500 none Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii
Unsatisfied Demand
415 none Pendleton 150 none Incirlik Incirlik Incirlik Incirlik
none Pendleton 50 Hawaii 300 Pendleton Pendleton Pendleton Pendleton Pendleton
Remaining Supply
Pendleton 500 Hawaii 300 Incirlik Lejeune Lejeune Lejeune Lejeune Lejeune
Hawaii 300 Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein Ramstein
Locations Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa Okinawa
# Attacks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE
0 2 4 6 8
020
0040
0060
0080
0010
000
1200
014
000
Number Resource Attacks
Cos
t (FY
2050
M U
SD
)
161 719
6681
3666
8972
1114812293
13422
415
SCENARIO 5
ALLIANCE ATTACKS+
POLITICAL ATTACKS
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
COMBAT TROOP MOVEMENT
3985
3963 Eastern Asia 500
Eastern Asia 500 Lebar 50
2518 Lebar 50 Okinawa 450
1059 Eastern Asia 300 Okinawa 450 Lejeune 350
Eastern Asia 100 Okinawa 300 Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600
317 Okinawa 100 Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300
293 none Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Incirlik - Middle East
261 none Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Middle East - Eastern Asia
Middle East - Eastern Asia
Total Cost ($M) 237 none Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Udeid - Eastern Asia
Udeid - Eastern Asia
Udeid - Eastern Asia
Unsatisfied Demand
none Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Western Asia - Eastern Asia
Western Asia - Eastern Asia
Western Asia - Eastern Asia
Western Asia - Eastern Asia
Lejeune 350 Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Russia - Eastern Asia
Russia - Eastern Asia
Russia - Eastern Asia
Russia - Eastern Asia
Russia - Eastern Asia
Remaining Supply
Pendleton 600 Hawaii 300 Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Malaysia - Eastern Asia
Hawaii 300 Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Lebar - Eastern Asia
Locations Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
Okinawa - Eastern Asia
# Attacks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITHALLIANCE ATTACKS AND
POLITICAL ATTACKS
OPERATOR RESILIENCE CURVE
0 2 4 6 8
010
0020
0030
0040
00
Number Political Attacks
Cos
t (FY
2050
M U
SD
)
237 261 317293
1059
2518
3963 3985
161
SCENARIO 6
RESOURCE ATTACKS+
POLITICAL ATTACKS
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITHRESOURCE ATTACKS AND
POLITICAL ATTACKS
Number Resource Attacks
Cost (FY
2050M U
SD
)
Operator Resilience Surface
SCENARIO 7
ALLIANCE ATTACKS+
RESOURCE ATTACKS+
POLITICAL ATTACKS
MINIMUM COST FLOW WITH ALLIANCEATTACKS, RESOURCE ATTACKS, AND
POLITICAL ATTACKS
Number Resource Attacks
Cost (FY
2050M U
SD
)
Operator Resilience Surface
WITH MORE TIME…
Add more bases
One node for each country
Multiple arcs based on mode of transportation
Adjust nodal reach based on resource limitations
Refine arc capacities and cost factors
Allow more resource and political attacks
DUAL FORMULATION