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Solar Power International, Las Vegas September 14, 2016 CSIQ NASDAQ Listed GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu Charmain and CEO

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Page 1: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

Solar Power International, Las Vegas September 14, 2016

CSIQ NASDAQ Listed

GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu Charmain and CEO

Page 2: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

2 Canadian Solar Inc.

Company Overview! Founded in Ontario, 2001 ! Listed on NASDAQ (CSIQ) in 2006 ! Over 8,000 employees globally ! Presence in 18 countries / territories ! > 16 GW of solar modules shipped

cumulatively ! > 1.8 GWp solar power plants developed,

built and connected (incl. Recurrent) ! Top 2 solar company by MW shipped,

revenue and profits in 2015

Global Footprint and Brand

Salesoffice Manufacturingfacility TotalSolu4onscontracted/latestageprojects

Highlights

! 2015 Revenue: $3.5 Billion ! 2015 Shipments: 4.7 GW ! 2015 Net Income: $172 Million ! 2016 Shipment Guidance: 5.4 – 5.5 GW

Solar Power Plants Built and Connected

80.5261.8

628.1

1,196.1

2011-12 2013 2014 2015

Page 3: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

3 Canadian Solar Inc.

Macro Factors: Long Rates Trending Lower

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

%

Interest Rates since 1993

USD

Euro

JPY

FedFundRate

Lower interests rates reduce the cost of solar financing & the yield expectation of investors, leading to reduced capital costs of solar assets and a positive climate for solar developers

Source:Bloomberg,CanadianSolarAnalysis

Page 4: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

4 Canadian Solar Inc.

Macro Factors: Energy Prices have Bottomed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

CrudeOilFuturessince1990

WTIBrent

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

1,000,000Ba

rrels

DOECrudeOilTotalInventorysince1990

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

NaturalGasFuturessince1990

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

1,000,000Ba

rrels

DOEWorldCrudeOilProducIonsince2001

As base energy prices stabilize, resulting in boosted sentiment of energy investors

Source:Bloomberg,CanadianSolarAnalysis

Page 5: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

5 Canadian Solar Inc.

Emerging

Mature China 27%

Japan 20%

U.S. 14%

Europe 13%

India 7%

MEA 6%

Latin America

6%

Others 7%

Global Opportunities !   Mature markets: grid-parity and evolving storage solutions will drive growth of distributed

generation and self consumption

!   Emerging markets: utility-scale business and hybrid micro-grids will drive growth and create high margin opportunities for IPPs

Source:IHS,CanadianSolarAnalysis

163.1 GW 51%

154.3 GW 49%

Japan U.S. Mature Europe

China Emerging Europe

India

Global PV Demand in Regional Markets 2015-19: 317 GW

Page 6: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

6 Canadian Solar Inc.

Decreasing Manufacturing Costs

Q2 2011 $0.76/W

Polysilicon/Wafer

$0.23/W

Cell

$0.33/W

Module

$1.32/W1

Total

Q2 2016 $0.18/W $0.08/W $0.13/W $0.39/W1

$0.11/W $0.06/W $0.12/W $0.29/W2

Source: Company information

1.  Blended manufacturing cost in China 2.  Based on internal ingot, wafer, cell and module manufacturing in China

Q4 2020 $0.09/W $0.06/W $0.10/W $0.25/W2

•  Lower polysilicon cost •  Lower polysilicon usage

leveraging diamond wiresaw

•  Decrease raw material usage and purchase costs

•  Increase throughput

•  Higher efficiency •  Reduce bill of material

(BOM) cost

Q4 2017

Page 7: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

7 Canadian Solar Inc.

Solar Modules Increasingly Efficient and Powerful

Technological Innovations:

! CSI’s Black Si nano-texturing technology paves the way for diamond-wire sawing in multi-crystalline wafer production.

! Black Si will be the industry’s mainstream technology by ~2018.

! Mono PERC cell mass production efficiency projected to be above 22.5% by 2020.

! Design and process innovations will enable 72-cell module wattage to exceed 390W by 2020, resulting in a significant reduction in LCOE.

Technological innovations will lead to increasingly powerful and efficient solar modules, meaning more green power with the same footprint and infrastructure

60-CellModule

72-CellModule

Page 8: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

8 Canadian Solar Inc.

US Solar Outlook

! U.S market since Q1 2015:

! 51% of all new electric generating capacity in U.S. came from solar

! The residential and utility PV market segments each added more capacity than the natural gas industry brought on-line

! Nearly 209K Americans work in the solar, with that number projected to double by 2020.

! Solar installation costs have dropped by more than 70%

! Policy challenges

! Net metering challenge in several states including Nevada and Arizona

! The AD/CVD trade barrier raises the module price >30%

! Trade barrier makes conducting business difficult and hurt US jobs

The economics for US solar are ideal; the problems currently facing the US solar industry are all policy-related

Page 9: GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK - solarpowerinternational.com · GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu ... , Canadian Solar Analysis Canadian Solar Inc. 4 Macro Factors: ... Polysilicon/Wafer $0.23/W

9 Canadian Solar Inc.

THANK YOU!

September 2016