global value chains in ict and ict content in the economy€¦ · · 2016-06-03global value...
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GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN ICT AND
ICT CONTENT IN THE ECONOMY
Norihiko Yamano OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation PREDICT 2016 TECHNICAL WORKSHOP) ICTS, R&D AND THE ECONOMY 18-19 February 2016, Seville, Spain
Recognition that current ‘gross’ measures of international trade flows may create ‘misleading perceptions’ and imperfect policies in a number of areas
Issues with traditional international trade statistics :
o Implicit multiple counting of intermediate goods and services
o Tends to hide the actual patterns of trade
o Incomplete picture as knowledge and income flows are not measured
This led to calls for new statistics that better respond to these issues
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Why measure Trade in Value Added
(TiVA) ?
• Estimate TiVA indicators and support GVC analyses
• Connecting National Accounts components of countries by sector
– value-added in basic price (industry)
– trade balances
– harmonized sector level
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Aim of OECD ICIO system
Coverage: OECD ICIO 2015edition
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• Inter-country transaction = bilateral trade flows by end-use category (industry x final expenditure)
• ISIC rev3 two-digit based 34 industry – 16 manufacturing
– 14 services
• Country / Economy – 61 countries + RoW = World economy
OECD34, APEC19, BRIICS, G20, EU28, ASEAN 8
• Inter-country transactions are valued at basic price by industry
• Exports = Imports !
• Exports goods bp = SNA exports in goods fob pu
+ inbound TSA pu (goods) ) distribution services
- tax less subsidy margins (goods)
- re imports ) re exports
• Exports services bp = SNA exports in services fob pu
- inbound TSA pu (goods) + distribution services
+ tax less subsidy margins (goods)
Trade flows in Inter-country I-O
Note: SNA: National Accounts, pu : purchasers’ prices, bp: basic price, TSA: tourism satellite account
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ICT sectors in current OECD ICIO model Manufacturing
(3000) Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery
(3210) Manufacture of electronic valves and tubes and other electronic components
(3220) Manufacture of television and radio transmitters and apparatus for line telephony
and line telegraphy
(3230) Manufacture of television and radio receivers, sound or video recording or
reproducing apparatus, and associated goods
(3311) Manufacture of medical and surgical equipment and orthopaedic appliances
(3312) Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, checking, testing,
navigating and other purposes, except industrial process control equipment
(3313) Manufacture of industrial process control equipment
(3320) Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment
(3330) Manufacture of watches and clocks
Services
(6411) National post activities
(6412) Courier activities other than national post activities
(6420) Telecommunications
(7210) Hardware consultancy
(7220) Software consultancy and supply
(7230) Data processing
(7240) Data base activities
(7250) Maintenance and repair of office, accounting and computing machinery
(7290) Other computer related activities
(ISIC Rev.3 – 4digit code), 31xx : 7
• Gross exports = cross border (cb) exports+ non-cross border (nc) exports
• VA exports = v(I-A)-1 [cb.ex +nc.ex] = v cb.ex + [v(I-A)-1 cb.ex – v cb.ex] +v(I-A)-1 nc.ex
• VA created by final demand = v(I-A)-1 [final demand]
• SNA & Trade statistics = Gross exports + re-exports + re-imports
Measuring value added embodied in trade
and foreign final demand
Direct cross border
Indirect (non-cross border)
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• Data
– Gaps
– Definition: product, industry
– Negatives: operating surplus, inventory
• Timeliness
• Methodology
– Balancing technique
– Leontief multiplier
Challenges
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• Countries imports ICT equipment and software
• Import contents of exports in traditional Leontief analysis underestimate (?) the imported capital
• Endogenise capital formation – Augmented method (Miyazawa approach)
– Capital formation (investment) matrix
– Capital accumulation / depreciation
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ICT Capital goods imports?
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Example: Austria 2010
(Million EUR)
Domestic Imports Domestic Imports Exports Output
C26 Computer, electronic and
optical products 285 2,770 244 2,016 1,309 4,170
J61 Telecommunications
services 3,198 621 - - 698 6,343
J62_63 Computer programming,
consultancy and related
services; information
services 4,415 800 3,901 256 3,561 9,671
TOTAL ICT 7,898 4,190 4,145 2,271 5,568 20,184
Intermediate
consumption
Gross Fixed capital
formation
Eurostat : NACE2, ESA1995, 62 sector
Thank you!
OECD Input-Output Database
• http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/input-outputtables.htm
OECD TiVA
• http://oe.cd/tiva
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• National Accounts harmonised constraints and intermediate balancing procedures
– Official GDP, Output and trade balances
– Bilateral trade data by end-use
– Use table at purchasers’ prices & basic price
– International use table
– Re-exports / Re-imports
• Official I-O/SUT sources
• Interpolate/Extrapolate to fill gaps
Features of OECD ICIO System (i)
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• Trade is balanced at three stages
(country total, sectoral and bilateral)
• Firm heterogeneity within manufacturing industry for Mexico and China
– Import penetration and value added / output ratio is significantly different for exporters and domestic sales dominant firms
• Direct purchases by non-residents
• “complete” basic price : distribution services are properly allocated to service providing country and industry
Features of OECD ICIO System (ii)
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Data source Country Industry
National Accounts(OECD, UNSD, National)
140-160 At least 6 Output, VA, GDP, expenditure, trade constraints, tourism
Balance of payment (IMF)
160) 180 BPM5 based
I-O / supply and use (National, Eurostat, ADB)
61 30) 500 Format, industry classification and price valuation are not harmonized
Bilateral trade in goods (UN, OECD)
Approx. 120 Approx 5000 products
Bilateral trade in services (OECD, UN, Eurostat)
70-80 EBOPS (8-12)
Other (energy, population, Customs, etc)
Where do TiVA indicators come from?
ICIO (61cou., 34 ind.)
TiVA 22
What does ICIO look like?
Re-exports
Unspecified &
Ind1 Ind2 Ind3 Ind1a Ind1b Ind2a Ind2b Ind34 Ind1 Ind2 Ind3 FD FD FD Destination Reimports
Proces
sing Non-prc
Proce
ssing
Non-
prc
adjustmen
ts
Z(1,2,A,B) - F(1,A,B) FD(1,A,B) FU(1,A) REEX (1,A)
-
-
Ind1a Processing -
Ind1b Non-prc -
Ind2a Processing -
Ind2b Non-prc -
-
-
-
-
Notes: International trade and insurance margin services are allocated in exports of service providers
Country B has 2 heterogenous sectors in industry 1 and industry 2
Z (1,2,A,B) = intermediate transaction from industry 1 of country A to industry 2 of country B
F(1,A,B) = Final expenditure of products from industry 1 of country A by country B
FC(1,A,B) = Final expenditure by non-residents from B in country A
FU(1,A) = Exports of product from industry 1 of country A to unspecified destination
REEX(1,A) = Re-exports and re-imports adjustments of Country A's industry 1
CONS
_ABR
CONS
_ABR
CONS
_ABR
Country A Country B Country C
Industry 2
Industry 2
Industry 1
Industry 3
Industry 3
Industry 1
ICIO (3 country 3 industry) Country A Country B Country C
"-" No value by definition
Final demand
Domestic transaction
International trade
(current basic price)
Country
A
Country
C
Country
B
Intermediate
Value-Added
OUTPUT
Taxes less subsidies on
products
Industry 3
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