global warming's six americas

EPA Green Power Partnership Webinar December 7th, 2012

Global Warming’s Six Americas: Understanding and Communicating with a Diverse Public

Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD Neil Stenhouse, PhD student

Three take away points:

1. Regarding global warming, there are six distinct groups of Americans. HOWEVER, America is less divided on this issue than is often assumed.

2. There is strong support for accelerating the transition to clean energy.

3. There is also growing support for Congress & the POTUS (as well as industry) to take action on climate change.

2

Global Warming’s “Six Americas”

They think differently, but they don’t look different…

• The groups don’t differ much on the basis of sex, race, age or income – there are men and women of every age, race and income in each of the six groups.

• But they differ dramatically in their beliefs about the reality, causes and dangers of global warming, in the political ideology, and in their underlying worldviews.

Alarmed Alice Alice is completely sure global warming is happening, human caused, and feels personally threatened by it. She believes that people around the world are already being harmed by it, or will be soon. Alice is slightly more likely than average to be taking steps to reduce her energy use, but is far more likely than average to use her purchasing power - and her voice as a citizen - to advocate for change. Alice supports a wide range of policy responses to address global warming.

Concerned Claudia Claudia is very sure global warming is happening, and believes it has human causes, but feels less personally threatened than Alice. She believes that global warming will begin to harm people around the world 10+ years from now. Claudia is average in terms of taking measures to reduce her energy consumption, but well above average in terms of using her purchasing power to advocate for change. Claudia supports aggressive government policies, but is currently unlikely to contact her elected officials to say so.

Cautious Carl

Carl is only somewhat sure that global warming is happening, and he is equally likely to see it as human caused or natural. He sees global warming as a distant threat – primarily a threat to other people – that won’t begin to hurt people around the world for another 25 - 50 years. Carl is taking average steps to reduce his energy consumption, but isn’t involved in addressing global warming in other ways. He is, however, modestly supportive of a range of proposed policies.

Disengaged Diane

Diane thinks global warming may be happening, but she’s not at all sure. She’s given it very little thought, doesn’t consider it personally important, and doesn’t know much about it. Diane has done relatively little to reduce her use of energy at home, but because she has lower than average income she is more likely than average not to rely on her own car. Despite her low level of personal concern, Diane is more supportive than Carl of a national response to global warming.

Doubtful David

David says he doesn’t know if real or not, but if it is, he’s pretty sure it isn’t human-caused. David isn’t worried about it; he sees global warming as a very distant threat that won’t harm people for at least another 100 years. David isn’t in favor of a national response to global warming per se, but he is modestly in favor of a range of energy-saving policy measures, and is improving energy-efficiency in his home.

Dismissive Dan

Dan does not believe that global warming is happening and believes that many scientists share his views. Dan doesn’t support any form of government action against global warming, although he does support efforts to develop or promote renewable energy sources. He is more likely than average to be making energy-efficient improvements to his home.

Global Warming’s “Six Americas”

Leiserowitz et al., (2012)

Global Warming Key Beliefs:

• It’s real • It’s human caused • It’s bad for people • It’s solvable

• Policy Support

• Injunctive Beliefs

+

Four key beliefs are strongly associated with the attitude that society “should do more to address global warming,”

and with support for a range of public policies that will help limit global warming

Ding, Maibach et al (2011) Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientific agreement. Nature Climate Change, DOI:10:1038/NCLIMATE1295

A quick profile of selected key beliefs about global warming that influence global warming policy support.

• It’s real

• It’s human-caused

• It’s bad for people

• It’s solvable.

“Do you think global warming is happening? How certain are you?”

(i.e., It’s real.)

What’s causing global warming?

Source: Yale & George Mason, July 2010

i.e., It’s human-caused

When do you think global warming will start to harm people in the U.S.?

(i.e. It’s bad for people)

Humans can reduce global warming, and we will

Humans could reduce global warming, but it’s unclear if we will

People can reduce global warming

Fall 2008

(i.e., It’s solvable)





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18

Majority of Americans Say the U.S. Should Use Less Fossil Fuels and More Renewable Energy in the Future

In the future, do you think the United States should use fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) less, more, or the same amount as we do today? In the future, do you think the United States should use renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal) less, more, or the same amount as we do today? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,061)

8% 10% 14% 16%

28% 26%

56%

22%

8% 12%

2% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Much more than today

Somewhat more than today

The same amount as today

Don't know/Refused

Somewhat less than today

Much less than today

In the future, the U.S. should use fossil fuels… Should use renewable energy sources…

How soon do you think we should start increasing renewable energy use in the United States? How soon do you think we should start reducing fossil fuel use in the United States? *Base: Americans 18+ who say the U.S. should use more renewable energy sources in the future (n=844). **Base: Americans 18+ who say the U.S. should use less fossil fuels in the future (n=577).

Many Americans Want to Reduce Fossil Fuel Use and Increase Use of Renewable Energy Immediately

63%

76%

0% 50% 100%

We should immediately decrease use of fossil fuels**

We should immediately increase use of renewable energy sources*

Americans Believe That Reducing Fossil-Fuel Use and Global Warming Will Have Very Similar Benefits for the U.S.

- % who say they “somewhat” or “strongly agree” with the reason -

28%

31%

40%

43%

44%

53%

56%

58%

58%

61%

20%

33%

38%

44%

44%

52%

55%

55%

56%

54%

Improve our national security

Save many people around the world from poverty and starvation

Protect the world's poorest people from environmental harm caused by the world's richest

Protect God's creation

Prevent the destruction of most life on the planet

Create green jobs and a stronger economy

Save many plant and animal species from extinction

Improve people's health

Provide a better life for our children and grandchildren

Help free us from dependence on foreign oil

Steps taken to reduce global warming (n=535) Steps taken to reduce fossil fuels (n=526)

Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements. (Asked of half the sample) If our nation takes steps to reduce our use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), it will… (Asked of the other half of the sample) If our nation takes steps to reduce global warming, it will… Base: Americans 18+.

Americans Believe That Reducing Fossil-Fuel Use and Global Warming May Have Similar Drawbacks for the U.S.

- % who say they “somewhat” or “strongly agree” with the reason -

17%

18%

23%

25%

43%

50%

16%

16%

20%

21%

42%

54%

Undermine American sovereignty

Harm poor people more than it helps them

Interfere with the free market

Cost jobs and harm our economy

Cause energy prices to rise

Lead to more government regulation

Steps taken to reduce global warming (n=535) Steps taken to reduce fossil fuels (n=526)

Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements. (Asked of half the sample) If our nation takes steps to reduce our use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), it will… (Asked of the other half of the sample) If our nation takes steps to global warming, it will… Base: Americans 18+.

There Is Bipartisan Agreement That the U.S. Should Use More Renewable Energy in the Future

In the future, do you think Americans should use renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal) less, more, or the same amount as we do today?

42%

29%

10% 13%

4% 2%

61%

24%

15%

6% 1% *

64%

19%

7% 9%

* 1%




Don't know/Refused



Republicans (n=260) Independents (n=231) Democrats (n=326)

Base: Americans registered to vote 18+.

Democrats and Independents Are the Most Likely to Support a Transition Away From Fossil Fuels

In the future, do you think Americans should use fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) less, more, or the same amount as we do today?

13% 16%

9%

13%

27%

11%

7% 9%

15%

7%

31% 30%

5%

9% 10%

15%

24%

37%




Don't know/Refused



Republicans (n=260) Independents (n=231) Democrats (n=326)

Base: Americans registered to vote 18+.

Global Warming’s Six Americas

All Six Americas feel that clean energy development should be a priority

Low

Medium

High

Very high 3.5

2.8

2.2 2.1

1.4

1.0

3.7

3.3

2.9

2.6

2.3

2.0

1

2

3

4

Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive

Global Warming

Developing Clean Energy

"Do you think global warming should be a low, medium, high or very high priority for the president and Congress?“ "Do you think that developing sources of clean energy should be a low, medium, high or very high priority for the president and Congress?” (March 2012)


There is very strong support for funding research to develop renewable energy

93% 89% 83% 75% 68% 43%

(%’s listed = percent who support)

“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? …Fund more research into renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.” (March 2012)


There is very strong support for tax rebates to encourage purchasing efficient

vehicles and solar panels

“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? … Provide tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels.” (March 2012)

88% 90% 81% 78% 60% 35%



There is moderately strong support for requiring utilities to use 20% renewables,

even if it costs households $100/year

92% 77% 63% 46% 44% 25%

“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? …Require electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from wind, solar, or other renewable energy sources, even if it cost the average household an extra $100 a year.” (March 2012)


Global Warming’s Six Americas There is moderately strong support for a policy that will raise utility bills by 5% to

get power from renewables

87% 63% 58% 43% 21% 11%

“How much do you support or oppose the following policies for your local community? …Paying 5% more on your monthly utility bill to get your electricity from renewable energy sources, like wind or solar.” (March 2011)






30

Majority of Americans Say Developing Clean Energy and Global Warming Should Be Priorities for the President and Congress

18%

31%

25%

38%

34%

23%

23%

8%

0% 50% 100%

Global warming

Developing sources of clean energy

Very high priority High Medium Low

Do you think that global warming should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress? Do you think that developing sources of clean energy should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress? Base: Americans 18+.

Do you think that global warming should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress? Do you think that developing sources of clean energy should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress? Base: Americans 18+.

Growing Support For the President and Congress to Make Global Warming a Priority

83%

69%

77%

70% 70% 72%

77%

89%

94% 91% 90%

92% 92%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008 (n=2,164)

1/2010 (n=1,001)

6/2010 (n=1,024)

5/2011 (n=1,010)

11/2011 (n=1,000)

3/2012 (n=1,008)

9/2012 (n=1,061)

Believe GW should be medium/high/very high priority

Believe developing clean energy sources should be medium/high/very high

12%

19%

44%

24%

No effort A small-scale effort, even if it has small

economic costs

A medium-scale effort, even if it has moderate

economic costs

A large-scale effort, even if it has large economic

costs

A Large Majority of Americans Support a U.S. Effort to Reduce Global Warming, Even if It Has Economic Costs

How big of an effort should the U.S. make to reduce global warming?

How big of an effort should the United States make to reduce global warming? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,061)

61%

2% 7% 5%

25%

Regardless of what other countries do

Only if other industrialized countries (such as England,

Germany, and Japan) reduce their emissions

Only if other industrialized and developing countries (such as China, India, and

Brazil reduce their emissions

The U.S. should not reduce its emissions

Don't know

Majority of Americans Say the U.S. Should Reduce Its Greenhouse Gas Emissions Regardless of What Other Countries Do

The U.S. should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions…

People disagree whether the United States should reduce greenhouse gas emissions on its own, or make reductions only if other countries do too. Which of the following statements comes closest to your own point of view? The United States should reduce greenhouse gas emissions…? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,061)

Americans Are Most Likely to Say Corporations and Industry and Citizens Themselves Should Be Doing More to Address

Global Warming

18%

24%

25%

39%

35%

36%

41%

32%

29%

22%

23%

18%

7%

8%

5%

6%

10%

9%

4%

5%

0% 50% 100%

The President

The U.S. Congress

Citizens themselves

Corporations and industry

Should be doing much more More Currently doing right amount Less Much less

Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming? Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,061).

Growing Majorities of Americans Say Corporations, Industry, and Congress Should Do More to Address Global Warming

67%

54% 54% 57% 55%

58% 60%

73%

64% 66% 65% 67% 70% 71%

25%

50%

75%

100%

11/2008 (n=2,164)

1/2010 (n=1,001)

6/2010 (n=1,024)

5/2011 (n=1,010)

11/2011 (n=1,000)

3/2012 (n=1,008)

9/2012 (n=1,061)

The Congress should be doing much more/more to address GW

Corporations and industry should be doing much more/more

Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming? Base: Americans 18+.


Most Americans feel that the current state of the economy is no excuse not to

address global warming.

90% disagree 71% 53% 51% 41% 20%

“With the economy in such bad shape, the US can't afford to reduce global warming.” (March 2012)


A large majority of Americans feel that protecting the environment is good for

or has no effect on the economy

94% 94% 85% 84% 74% 46%

(%’s = Answered “Improves growth” or “No effect”)

“Overall, do you think that protecting the environment…”. (March 2012)


A large majority of Americans support regulating CO2 as a pollutant

“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? … Regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant.” (March 2012)

89% 89% 82% 67% 55% 29%

Global Warming’s Six Americas A substantial number of consumers say

they have purchased from companies in the past year because of the steps the

companies are taking to help reduce global warming

77% 48% 35% 14% 13% 4%

“Over the past 12 months, how many times have you done these things? …Rewarded companies that are taking steps to reduce global warming by buying their products.” (May 2011)

(%’s = Took this action at least once in the past year)





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