globsec vaccination trends

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GLOBSEC Vaccination TrendsPerceptions from Central and Eastern Europe

Democracy & Resilience Programme

2) (3GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe

1.Introduction

The Central and Eastern Europe region began recording its first cases of COVID-19 in March 2020, initiating a race to stop the spread of the virus and avert casualties. A year later governments are now challenged with swiftly vaccinating their populations to achieve herd immunity before vaccine-resistant mutations emerge.

Societal buy-in, however, will be required if the vaccination programmes are to be successful, an outcome that is threatened by both anti-vax campaigns backed by disinformation and conspiracy-theory spreading outlets and public distrust directed towards pertinent institutions. Though survey data from October 2020 pointed to concerns on this front, the latest opinion polling from March indicates an improved vaccine landscape.

Central Europe is indeed now on path towards eventually administering vaccines to around 60-70% of the adult population. Fewer people, however, have been brought on board in Bulgaria and Romania, with interest in vaccination hovering only around 40% in these two societies. Numerous questions are raised against this backdrop. Will the lower vaccination rates of some countries detrimentally impact the headway made by their neighbours? And will laggard countries, whose populations may potentially be unable to travel if they lack COVID passports, become more isolated? Or, on the contrary, will reopenings – and the social and economic benefits that come with them spur higher vaccine uptake? These questions are to be answered over the upcoming year.

Those interested in getting jabbed, meanwhile, express trust in scientific bodies in the transatlantic area. A total of 48% of respondents eager to get vaccinated indicate that they would prefer a Western European or U.S. developed shot. Another 34% of this group are keen on any vaccine approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). This finding should indeed be a wake-up call to CEE governments that are considering the administration of vaccines not yet approved by the EMA.

About the dataThe data included in this brief was collected in ten Central and Eastern European countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in March 2021 based on a representative sample of the adult population reflecting age, gender, education and place of residence. Over 1000 people were interviewed in each country through the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) method. This brief provides a glimpse into findings that will be more comprehensively published in June as part of our Democracy & Resilience Programme’s annual flagship report, GLOBSEC Trends 2021.

DEFINITIONSV4: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Central and Eastern Europe: V4 + Baltic States + Romania, Bulgaria and Austria

1. A majority in Central and Eastern Europe want to get vaccinated. Outliers include Bulgaria and Romania.

2. The willingness to get vaccinated increased by 20-30% in a five-month period across all V4 countries and doubled in Slovakia.

3. A sizeable contingent - around 20% of society - still remains either “rather not” willing or undecided on vaccination.

4. Central and Eastern Europeans express a clear preference for vaccines developed in Western countries (e.g. Moderna and Pfizer) and EMA-approved vaccines.

5. Only 5% of respondents, on average, mention Sputnik V as their vaccine of choice. Slovaks are outliers on this matter, with 15% indicating a preference for the Sputnik V vaccine over alternatives.

6. The age and education levels of respondents influence their interest in vaccination. A total of 60% of university educated respondents want to get vaccinated, 15 percentage points greater than people with only an elementary level education. Interest in vaccination increases with age, partially reflecting the vaccination strategies of CEE countries, which have initially prioritized older people for inoculation.

2.Key highlights


3.W

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Willingness to get vaccinated in 10 CEE countries

Austria

Defitinely & rather yes Defitinely & rather not Already vaccinated (March 2021)

73%

Slovakia

Czechia

Poland

Hungary

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Romania

61%

57%

57%

55%

55%

53%

51%

33%

31%

16%

24%

29%

27%

29%

23%

35%

30%

55%

49% 14%

17%

5%

10%

7%

11%

9%

9%

10%

8%

Countries with fewer people interested in vaccination, nonetheless, include considerable pockets of residents who indicated that they would “rather not” get vaccinated as opposed to “definitely not”. The potential ambivalence among those who responded “rather not” or “don’t know” on vaccination, in fact, provides an opportunity to still change attitudes. This “grey zone” represents, on average, around 20% of the adult population of the region.

Vaccination intentions vary considerably across Central and Eastern Europe. The greatest level of interest was measured in Austria, with 8 in 10 respondents in the country either already vaccinated or open to it. Residents of Bulgaria and Romania, meanwhile, were least inclined to get the jab.

Grey zone: Those who are rather not willing or do not know whether to get vaccinated

Austria

Rather not Do not know

8%

Slovakia

Czechia

Poland

Hungary

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Romania

8%

11%

12%

13%

13%

15%

18%

19%

28% 7%

10%

6%

5%

6%

5%

6%

7%

3%

4%


Willing to get vaccinated in October 2020Willing to get vaccinated in March 2021+ already vaccinated

Slovakia Czechia PolandHungary Bulgaria Romania

45% 46%23% 38%43% 66%45% 72%35% 66%36% 70%

October 2020 vs. March 2021: A shift in vaccination attitudes over five months

The willingness to get vaccinated climbed steeply over a five-month period in Visegrad Four countries, Bulgaria and Romania. This shift has been most profound in Slovakia where vaccine interest doubled between October and March.

Willingness to get vaccinated rose by 20-30% in V4 countries


4.Preferences for particular vaccines

The survey findings indicate that people are more willing to get vaccinated in all ten CEE countries if they are administered a Western vaccine (e.g. Moderna or Pfizer) or an EMA-approved vaccine. These figures far surpass the share of respondents most interested in the Sputnik V shot.

Disinterest in Sputnik V holds true even in Bulgaria despite the prevalence of pro-Russian sympathies in the country. Similar tepid interest was measured in Hungary even though it is the only EU country currently administering the vaccine and expending considerable muscle to promote it1.

Slovakia is an outlier on Sputnik V, with men (18%) drawn more to the vaccine than women (13%). Age (20% of people between 45 and 64 prefer Sputnik V) and education (19% of respondents with lower educational attainment prefer Sputnik V) also appear to influence attitudes towards the vaccine.

1 https://www.dw.com/en/hungary-government-uses-vaccine-campaign-to-lash-out-at-political-opponents/a-57137738

Vaccine preference by country

Austria

Western European or American. such as Pfizer or Moderna

Any vaccine approved by the European Union Medicines Agency

Russian, such as Sputnik

40%

Poland

Lithuania

Estonia

Slovakia

Czechia

Romania

Latvia

Hungary

Bulgaria

34%

29%

26%

25%

23%

20%

20%

20%

13%

26%

18%

16%

18%

27%

19%

9%

19%

22%

10%

7%

15%

4%

10%

1%

3%

6%

2%

1%

2%

The results are presented as a percentage of the adult population for each country. The question of vaccine preference was, however, posed only to those who responded they are “definitely” or “rather” planning to get vaccinated .

Answers to question “If you had a choice, which vaccine from the following would you prefer?” Options provided: 1) Western European or American (such as Pfizer or Moderna); 2) Russian (such as Sputnik); 3) Chinese (such as Sinovac); or 4) any vaccine approved by the European Union Medicines Agency.

https://www.dw.com/en/hungary-government-uses-vaccine-campaign-to-lash-out-at-political-opponents/a-


Western vaccines, selected by an average 25% of respondents as their jab of choice, are the most trusted across surveyed countries.An average of 18% of respondents indicate a preference for any EMA-approved vaccine. Only 5% of people, meanwhile, are inclined to choose the Sputnik V vaccine over Western, Chinese and EMA-approved alternatives.

Interest in the Chinese vaccines is negligible apart from Hungary, where a small proportion of the adult population (6%) would opt for them.

43%

5%

Western+ EMA approved

Sputnik V

The proportion is calculated as an overall average of the adult population’ vaccine preference based on data for each state.

The preferences of the public in the CEE region towards Western/EMA-approved vaccines vs. Sputnik V

10%

9%

22%26%

19%

27%

18%

16%

19%

18%ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

CZECHIA

SLOVAKIA

AUSTRIA

HUNGARY

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

Percentage of adult population willing to get vaccinated by EMA-approved COVID-19 vaccines by country

The results are presented as a percentage of the adult population in each country. The question of vaccine preference was, however, posed only to those who responded they are “definitely” or “rather” planning to get vaccinated.



An analysis of socio-demographical variables underscores the fact that vaccination interest is influenced, in addition to between-country variation, by age and educational attainment within each country.

Vaccination potential by age The graphs below display vaccination potential among different age groups, encompassing people professing that they are “definitely” or “rather” planning to get vaccinated and those who were already vaccinated at the time of the survey. A positive correlation was observed between respondent age and vaccination potential, with older people more willing to get vaccinated than young. Austria, where vaccine potential is robust among all age groups, is a regional outlier. Conversely, a 45-percentage point gap was measured in Latvia between the youngest and oldest respondents.

Among the oldest age demographic (age 65+), Bulgarians expressed the least interest in vaccination in the CEE region, with only 44% either already vaccinated or open to getting the jab. This figure stands in stark contrast to their Hungarian peers where vaccination potential was recorded at 90% for this age group. It is important to note that, at the time of the survey, Hungary, in contrast to all other surveyed countries, had already begun administering vaccines both approved and not approved by the EMA2.

2 This information is valid to April 16, 2021.

Potential to get vaccinated by age group.

0

18 - 24 y.o. 25 - 34 y.o. 35 - 44 y.o. 45 - 54 y.o. 55 - 64 y.o. 65+ y.o.

20

40

60

80

100

79%

44%

24%

31%

36%

42%

40%34%

51%

43%

56%

46%

44%

79% 81%

74%79%

89%

Austria Bulgaria Romania

The calculated percentages include people who responded with affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) on vaccination interest or indicated that they are already vaccinated

5.Willingness to get vaccinated according to age and education

Vaccinationpotential rises with

age in V4 andBaltic states


Potential to get vaccinated according to different age groups of V4 respondents

0

18 - 24 y.o. 25 - 34 y.o. 35 - 44 y.o. 45 - 54 y.o. 55 - 64 y.o. 65+ y.o.

20

40

60

80

100

65%

52%

54%58%

60%

46%

55%

60% 66%70%

61%

86%

73%72%

76%

82%

84%

68%71% 74% 74%

90%

Czechia Hungary Poland Slovakia

58%

The calculated percentages include people who responded with affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) on vaccination interest or indicated that they are already vaccinated.

Potential to get vaccinated according to different age groups of respondents from Baltic states

0

18 - 24 y.o. 25 - 34 y.o. 35 - 44 y.o. 45 - 54 y.o. 55 - 64 y.o. 65+ y.o.

20

40

60

80

58%

46%

33%

56%

60%

50% 49%

60% 59%

55%

67%

60%

74%

79%

68%

62%

78%

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

58%

100

The calculated percentages based on age include people who responded with affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) on vaccination interest or indicated that they are already vaccinated.


Willingness to get vaccinated and educational attainmentThe willingness of individuals to get vaccinated is also linked to educational attainment; people with higher levels of formal education are generally more likely to get the vaccine.

This pattern is illustrated, for example, in Latvia’s 36 percentage point gap, the largest in the region, in vaccine interest between people living in Lithuania. A total of 64% of Lithuanians with elementary education, nevertheless, are interested in getting vaccinated, comparing favourably to those with higher education levels in the country. Educational attainment appeared to elicit no effect in Poland.

Average willingness to get vaccinated in CEE region based on educational attainment of respondents

% of resp. with elementary education

45%

60%% of resp. with university education

The average of affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) in response to the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?” among respondents with elementary and university education.


6.Annex

The numbers in the tables represent percentages of the respondents. The abbreviations represent the following countries: AT – Austria; BG – Bulgaria; CZ – Czechia; EE – Estonia; HU – Hungary; LV – Latvia; LT – Lithuania; PL – Poland; RO – Romania; SK – Slovakia.

Overview of answers to the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?” in percentages.

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather not Definitely not Already vaccinated

Do not know (do not read)

AT 56.9 15.7 7.5 8.9 8.3 2.7

BG 11.4 21.4 28.1 27.3 5.0 6.8

CZ 40.1 16.9 12.6 16.7 9.1 4.6

EE 33.7 20.8 14.9 13.7 10.5 6.3

HU 45.0 10.2 8.4 15.0 17.2 4.2

LV 29.1 23.7 18.0 17.0 7.3 5.0

LT 27.4 23.9 12.9 16.6 9.6 9.6

PL 39.2 17.8 11.4 16.0 8.5 7.1

RO 19.5 11.9 19.2 29.3 14.3 5.9

SK 44.2 16.7 12.0 11.7 9.5 5.9

Breakdown of adult populations’ attitudes towards vaccination against COVID-19

AT BG CZ EST HU LV LT PL RO SK

Not planning/ Do not know if

planning

Not planning to get vaccinated 16.4 55.4 29.3 28.6 23.4 35.0 29.5 27.4 48.4 23.7

Do not know if planning to get vaccinated 2.7 6.8 4.6 6.3 4.2 5.0 9.6 7.1 5.9 5.9

Planning to get

vaccinated

Western European or American (such as Pfizer

or Moderna)40.4 13.4 24.7 25.8 19.6 20.3 29.5 33.9 20.4 23.1

Russian (such as Sputnik)

2.2 6.9 3.1 6.4 3.7 10.3 2.5 0.5 0.8 15.4

Chinese (such as Sinovac) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0

Any vaccine approved by the European Union

Medicines Agency26.0 9.7 26.9 18.0 22.4 18.6 16.1 18.2 8.5 18.7

Do not know which vaccine 3.8 2.8 2.3 4.2 3.8 3.1 3.1 4.2 1.7 2.7

Vaccinated Already vaccinated 8.3 5.0 9.1 11 17.2 7.3 9.6 8.5 14.3 9.5

Affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) of respondents on the statement “I would get vaccinated against COVID-19” in October 2020.

SK CZ HU PL BG RO

Definitely agree 16.7 13.7 30.4 22.0 5.4 19.2

Rather agree 19.4 21.7 14.7 21.4 17.9 25.7

People affirming vaccine willingness (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) or indicating that they have been “already vaccinated”, reported in percentages, in response to the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?”.

AT BG CZ EE HU LV LT PL RO SK

18 - 24 y.o. 79.2 23.8 64.9 58.2 52.1 32.5 45.7 51.6 44.4 54.4

25 - 34 y.o. 78.6 30.7 46.0 59.9 58.0 49.9 56.4 59.6 35.9 68.2

35 - 44 y.o. 80.7 40.4 58.3 48.7 59.5 60.0 57.5 54.5 41.9 71.0

45 - 54 y.o. 73.8 34.2 65.5 68.2 73.7 55.4 59.2 60.6 51.1 70.3

55 - 64 y.o. 78.7 43.4 72.7 67.2 85.5 62.0 59.8 71.9 55.7 74.1

65 + y.o. 89.2 44.3 84.3 78.5 90.0 77.5 73.7 82.1 46.4 75.9

Vaccine willingness (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”), reported in percentages, based on the level of educational attainment of respondents on the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?”.

AT BG CZ EE HU LV LT PL RO SK

Elementary/ without formal education 69.0 30.8 49.1 33.3 50.4 25.9 63.5 59.2 20.0 53.6

Secondary or apprenticeship

without school leaving exam

69.9 24.1 53.7 52.6 53.0 24.0 37.6 54.5 26.9 56.3

Secondary with school leaving exam 76.8 33.1 58.8 51.7 53.5 50.8 50.7 59.9 29.1 63.6

University 79.4 41.7 64.6 67.1 65.2 61.9 54.8 56.7 45.1 65.8


7.Credits

AUTHORS:

Dominika Hajdu, research fellow

Katarína Klingová, senior research fellow

Miroslava Sawiris, research fellow

Democracy & Resilience Programme

This publication and research were supported by the National Endowment for Democracy.

GLOBSEC and the National Endowment for Democracy assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed in this publication or their subsequent use. Sole responsibility lies with the authors of this publication.

© GLOBSEC 2021

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