Governor’s Complete Count Committee

Informational Session

Fiscal Impact of Census on Connecticut

General Population Changes 2000 -2010 and Beyond

• Aging Population – 65 and over segment is growing

• Declining Components - Whites

• Growing Components – African Americans, Hispanics and Others

The Predicament

• Population is aging/retiring: Although some have postponed retirement, more will leave as economy recovers.

• As population ages and leaves workforce, those people will make less money and pay less taxes: less tax revenue.

• As population ages and leaves workforce, those people will make greater use of health and social services: more demand for state services/expenditures.

• Problem: Increased demand for state services with a decreased ability to pay

CT Age Group Projections

Chart 6: Connecticut Population by Age2000 to 2030

474,935 506,202 571,496 647,238 740,303

1,676,098 1,674,275 1,661,519 1,661,322 1,643,370

194,072 224,491 251,171 256,174 235,832223,208 250,950 255,691 234,261 212,446

926,612 878,168 834,008 823,779 838,039

470,185817,719

1,624,685

1,611,869

198,612

214,924188,989

205,439925,558

852,449

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pop

ulat

ion

Age 0 to 19

Age 20 to 24

Age 25 to 29

Age 30 to 64

Age 65 and Over

Declining Components of Population

Source: CT State Data Center Chart 4: Connecticut Population by Race

2000 to 2030

2,629,877 2,556,102 2,479,807 2,410,789 2,340,264

385,113 452,190 523,085 597,255 673,871

308,290 320,021 331,849 342,784 351,802171,645 205,773 239,144 271,946 304,053

2,638,8632,257,029

321,724752,083

296,298 358,755151,144

334,533

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pop

ulat

ion

Other

African American

Hispanic

White

Hispanic Population by Age Band – Increasing Working Age Population

Source: CT State Data Center

Chart 16: Connecticut Hispanic Population by Age2000 to 2030

14,921 19,681 27,185 36,474 49,813

153,444 187,532220,871

256,243291,88835,139

38,38843,854

50,29754,521

33,40738,883

45,338

49,567

53,683

148,202

167,706

185,837

204,674

223,966

11,802 66,963122,345

325,323

29,544

58,636

30,149

58,351

127,884

242,810

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pop

ulat

ion

Age 0 to 19

Age 20 to 24

Age 25 to 29

Age 30 to 64

Age 65 and Over

Dependency RatiosSource: CT State Data Center

Chart 3: Connecticut Dependency Ratios2

2000 to 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Dep

ende

nt P

opul

atio

n pe

r 10

0 W

orke

rs

CT Total Dependency

USA Total Dependency

CT Child Dependency

USA Child Dependency

CT Elderly Dependency

USA Elderly Dependency

Possible Result

• Problem: A. Increased demand for state services with a

decreased ability by state to pay

B. Greater dependency per worker by elderly

• Possible outcome: – Insufficient state revenue to meet service

demands will lead to either tax increases or service reductions.

Possible Solution

• A) Fortify remaining labor force (growing and static elements) to ensure prosperous economy by personally, and as a state, investing in education. A highly educated population will produce new ideas, abilities and the business opportunities that follow. These prosperous workers will produce greater tax income.

• B) Fortify rest of economic infrastructure - Improve Housing (for new and upwardly mobile workers), Energy cost and Transportation to move goods and people efficiently.

• These steps will prepare for the creation of new business, recruitment of business from outside CT and the retention of current business.

Specific Impacts of Census Changes

• While these cannot be known until the census is conducted and report is available, the following programs would be influenced the most (according to the Federal Funds Information System):– Medicaid, highway planning and construction, Section

8 Housing Vouchers, Title 1 Grants to Local Education Agencies, Special Education Grants, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, federal transit formula grants, Head Start, Children’s Health Insurance Program and Community Development Block Grants.

– Please see Governor’s website for details.

Budget Function

 FY 2007 Enacted  FY 2008 Enacted  FY 2009 Enacted

Medicaid 95,860 118,249 99,111Medicaid 2,077,956 2,215,761 3,411,406Transportation 112,276 141,715 127,691Transportation 32,692 32,862 32,913Transportation 49,500 50,566 50,814Transportation 4,167 4,233 4,300Transportation 45,857 46,703 46,855Transportation 57,684 59,778 59,798Education 111,670 116,530 113,293Social Services 85,820 67,296 64,711Community Development 28,407 27,509 28,008Income Security 37,752 45,327 50,172Social Services 20,020 19,789 19,630Education 19,871 20,156 20,448Employment 9,439 8,982 14,239Health 16,751 16,751 16,809Income Security 12,423 11,919 13,359Community Development 13,731 13,328 13,532Employment 0 0Employment 0 0Social Services 28,122 27,631 30,143Employment 7,683 7,830 7,906Education 0 0Health 4,804 4,730 4,749Education 3,431 2,903 2,903

$2,875,914 $3,060,550 $4,232,790

* Estimated federal dollars which Connecticut is eligible for and which are at least partially based on census population counts.Data from Federal Funds Information for States Database, June, 2009

 (thousands)

Ranking From: GAO, Feb, 1999.  Formula Grants:  Effects of Adjusted Population Counts on Federal Funding to States

Adoption AssistanceEmployment Service State GrantsGoals 2000 State GrantsMaternal & Child Health Block Grant

Home Investment State Grants

Drug - Free Schools & Communities State Grants

Total:

Comm Devel. Block Grant - NonentitledJob Training Partner Act - AdultJob Training Partner Act - Youth

Social Services Block GrantRehab. Services - Basic State GrantDislocated WorkersSubstance Abuse Prevent. & Treatment Block Grant

Comp Ed (Title I) - Local Education AgenciesFoster CareComm Devel. Block Grant - EntitlementWIC - Supplemental Feeding Program

Fed-Aid Highways Int. MaintenanceFed-Aid Highways Metropolitan PlanningFed-Aid Highways National Highway SystemFed-Aid Highways Surface Transp. Prg.

Medicaid - AdministrationMedicaid - Vendor PaymentsFed-Aid Highways Bridge R & RFed-Aid Highways Congestion/Air Quality

Program

Estimated Federal Funds Enacted*:

             

Connecticut