gröna tåget – a high-speed train for the nordic market oskar fröidh [email protected]...

26
Gröna Tåget – a high- speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh [email protected] Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Upload: felipe-skelding

Post on 02-Apr-2015

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market

Oskar Frö[email protected]

Public Conference in Oslo16 December, 2010

Page 2: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

High-speed on the conventional network: Tilting trainsSweden

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 2

First report on tilting trains in 1969.

X 2000 services begun in 1990 (Stockholm-Gothenburg), and was extended to all main lines during the 1990’s.

Upgrading of the conventional network for up to 200 km/h operation.

Successful in rail/air competi-tion up to 400 km, and also Stockholm-Gothenb.(455 km)

Page 3: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

New high-speed trains needed

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 3

• Travel demand increases• Short travelling times are profitable (for society as

for operators and passengers) • Lower fares through better economy of service• Existing trains grow older

New links and rebuilt sections since mid-1990’s dimensioned for 250 km/h with tilting trains (mixed freight and passenger)

Page 4: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

GrönA Tåget research programme

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 4

The Gröna Tåget research programme• Trafikverket, KTH, research institutes,

Bombardier, SJ AB, consultants • 2005-2011

Page 5: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Gröna TågetGrønne Toget/The Green Train

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 5

• ”Gröna Tåget should serve as a bank of ideas, proposals and technical solutions for operators, infrastructure managers and industry”

• Flexible train length: Capacity according to need• Many seats in a given train length• Reliability and accessibility even in the Nordic climate• Low costs give profitability in a market exposed to

competetion• Track-friendliness, which means less wear to track

and wheels and enables high speeds on non-perfect track

• Even lower energy consumption and less noise than trains of today

Page 6: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Carbody tiltTo increase speed in curves

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 6

Page 7: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Boogie technologyTrack-friendly soft boogie

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 7

Page 8: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

The Gröna Tåget cost model

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 8

Capital costs

Train data

Onboard personnel costs

Infrastructure user fees

Energy costs

Maintenance costs

Type of service

Administration and planning

Load factor

Calculation of general operational costs Calculation of operational costs per case

Cost per train-km

Cost per seat-km

Cost per passenger-km

Sales costs

Terminal costs

Page 9: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Most important factors for low costs in train operations

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 9

• High commercial speed*• Efficient space utilisation• High load factor

* More important: Increases demand as well

Page 10: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Total operational cost as a function of commercial speed

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 10

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

Medelhastighet (km/h)

Kr/s

ittpl

atsk

m

Commercial speed (km/h)

Tota

l cos

t (SE

K/se

at-k

m)

Page 11: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Total operational cost as a function of space utilisation

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 11

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 3,0 3,2 3,4 3,6

Sittplatser per meter tåglängd

Kr/

sittp

lats

km

Seats per metre of train length

Tota

l cos

t (SE

K/se

at-k

m)

Page 12: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Total operational cost as a function of load factor

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 12

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Beläggningsgrad

Kr/p

erso

nkm

Tota

l cos

t (SE

K/pa

ss-k

m)

Load factor

Page 13: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Gröna Tåget high-speed concept

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 13

• Carbody tilt (optional)• High top speed of 250 km/h on conventional

lines, a 320 km/h version for new lines possible

• Wide-body• Shorter, flexible trainsets• Reliable in Nordic winter• Lower total costs• Lower energy consumption (economy and

energy efficient)

Page 14: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Carbody width

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 14

ICE3Continental profile

Gröna TågetWide body

Norway, Sweden, Copenhagen

2,95 m 3,46-3,55 m

Page 15: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Comparison of train sets

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 15

108 m

134 m

165 m

Gröna tåget (continental profile) approx. 300 seats

Gröna tåget (wide body) approx. 300 seats

X 2000 (normal profile)

Illustration by Oskar Fröidh, 2010

309 seats

Space utilisation• Wide-body trains have 25-30% more seats in every car• Space efficient seats and train layout• An EMU is lacking a locomotive/power unit (cf. the X 2000)

Page 16: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 16

Effects of Gröna Tåget

Market effects• Increased travel demand• Improved economy of operation• Increased accessibility, cost-benefit ratio improves• Less air and car travel – sustainable environment

Better supply

Mor

e en

viro

n-

men

t fr

iendly

Shor

ter

trav

el-

ling t

imes

Incr

ease

d fre

quen

cyLo

wer

far

es

Higher top speed (250 km/h up)

Tilting capabilityWide body (2+3 seating)Shorter trainsets, flexible train length

Page 17: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Suggested strategy

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 17

Railway, mixed services or passenger onlyRailway, freight onlyHigh-speed link, proposedExisting corridor Oslo–StockholmHigh-speed corridor, new link/existing line

Map: Oskar Fröidh, 2010

Oslo

Stockholm

Linköping

Norrköping

Uppsala

EskilstunaVästerås

Gothenburg

Hallsberg

Örebro

Mjölby

Tranås

Skövde

Falköping

Karlstad

Katrineholm

Motala

NyköpingOxelösund

Söder-tälje

Herrljunga

Alingsås

Mariestad

Lidköping

Arvika

Ström-stad

Arboga

Enköping

Sala

Arlanda Airport

Fagersta

KilBålsta

Gnesta

Flen

Vagn-härad

Stenungsund

Kongsvinger

Lillestrøm

GardermoenAirport Torsby

Laxå

Hasselfors

Hovsta

Järna

Ski

Moss

SarpsborgHaldenFredrik-

stad

The Oslo– Stockholm corridorA

D9

Page 18: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Total operating costsThe Gröna Tåget cost modelApplied on Oslo–Stockholm corridor

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 18

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

GT Wide-4 (250 km/h; 300 seats)

GT Wide-6 (320 km/h; 450 seats)

DB ICE3 (320 km/h; 444 seats)

NO

K/se

at-k

m

Total operating costs - high-speed lines

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

SJ X 2000 (309 seats) NSB BM73 (204 seats) GT Wide-4 (300 seats)

NO

K/se

at-k

m

Total operating costs - conventional lines

Page 19: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Lower ticket price – more journeysThe Oslo–Stockholm corridor

• Total operating cost for 1 single journey in 2010’s prices• Operating cost not the same as ticket price (which

includes yield management and profit), but an indication

Existing line (570 km, 4h50)Train type Operating cost1 Travel demand2

NSB BM73 NOK 428 ref.SJ X 2000 NOK 411 +3%Gröna Tåget (GTW-4) NOK 347 +15%

High-speed line (491 km, 2h30)Train type Operating cost1 Travel demand2

DB ICE3 NOK 312 ref.Gröna Tåget (GTW-6) NOK 256 +14%

1) Load factor 60%2) At a fare elasticity of -0.8

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 19

Page 20: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Total operating costsGröna Tåget cost modelApplied on Oslo–Stockholm corridor

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 20

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

Conventional line High-speed line

NO

K/Se

at-k

m

Total operating costs by line standard

NSB BM73 (204 seats) GT Wide-4 (300 seats)

High-speed has 20% lower operating costs

than services on a conventional line. Effect of shorter

distance and time

Efficient space utilisation (Wide-

body) has 15% lower operating costs than continental carbody

Page 21: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Gröna Tåget in Scandinavia

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 21

• Higher speeds (250 km/h or more) of interest in all countries (DK, FI, NO, SE)

• Conventional network supplemented by new high-speed links

• Wide-bodied trains possible (according to European norms, but critical in DK)

• Many prerequisites in common (climate, market, economy, social order)

• Larger market for improved design and lower price of trains

Page 22: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Energy consumptionAll modes, Norway

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 22

Train Metro Tram Bus Train Car Car Taxi Air Local(electric) (diesel) ferries boats

kWh/pass.-km

From www.jernbaneverket.no

Page 23: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Energy consumptionStockholm–Gothenburg (455 km)

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 23

Existing main line Wh/pass.-km

Old loco-hauled train (160 km/h; 4 hrs; Lf*44%) 108 1

X 2000(200 km/h; 2h45; Lf*55%) 77

Gröna Tåget (250 km/h; 2h30; Lf*60%) 52

New high-speed line (Götaland line)Gröna Tåget (320 km/h; 2 hrs: Lf*60%) 69

Reference valuesEuropean high-speed average (2009; Lf*65%) 61 2

Airplane (Boeing 737-800; Lf*65%) 510 3

1) Equivalent to NSB average today

2) Longer trains than on Stockholm-Gothenburg

Electricity from public grid; 3) Energy content in fuel

* Load factor/Cabin factor; Share of occupied seats

Page 24: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

Energy supply and the environment

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 24

• Railways use 1-2% of electricity (Sweden)• Environmental load, incl. emissions of CO2, dependent

on energy source for electricity generation• Electricity mix on the common Nordic market gives

relatively low CO2 emissions due to high proportion of hydroelectric and nuclear* power

• For increased steady use, biofuel, wind, hydroelectric, nuclear* and natural gas are more or less economic and likely power sources

• Limited grid transfer capacity and high costs make for example German coal power only a marginal option

* Finland, Sweden

Page 25: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

How can Gröna Tåget contribute to the Norwegian High-speed rail assessment?• Economic and environmental friendly concept solution

for existing lines as well as new high-speed lines• Increased travel demand due to shorter travelling

times and lower operating costs (lower ticket prices)• A technical solution (tilting carbodies, track-friendly

boogies, winter ability) that suits Nordic operators• A flexible concept on a common technical platform

assures lower prices for standardised rolling stock

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 25

Page 26: Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train for the Nordic market Oskar Fröidh oskar.froidh@abe.kth.se Public Conference in Oslo 16 December, 2010

2010-12-16 Gröna Tåget – a high-speed train. Oskar Fröidh, KTH 26

E-mail

www.infra.kth.se/jvgwww.gronataget.se

Illustrationer från Konstfack, StockholmUniversity College of Arts Crafts and Design