gulf energy development public company limited
TRANSCRIPT
Q1 2020 Earnings Presentation19 May 2020
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited
Q1’20 Business Updates
Q1’20 Financial Performance
Appendix
3
Power projects in Thailand
Construction progress as planned for GSRC while GPD is expected to start construction in Q3’20
Gulf SRC Gulf PD
Installed
Capacity:2,650 MW 2,650 MW
Shareholding: 70% GULF (75% dividends)
30% Mitsui & Co.
70% GULF (75% dividends)
30% Mitsui & Co.
Location: WHA Eastern Seaboard Industrial Estate 1,
Chonburi province, Thailand
Rojana Rayong 2 Industrial Park,
Rayong province, Thailand
Fuel Type: Gas-fired Gas-fired
SCOD: Units 1 and 2: 2021 (1,325 MW)
Units 3 and 4: 2022 (1,325 MW)
Units 1 and 2: 2023 (1,325 MW)
Units 3 and 4: 2024 (1,325 MW)
Status: Construction progress: 59.9% • Financial close in Nov 2019 with long-term
loan facilities of THB 36,000 million
• Construction expected to commence in Q3'20
4
New power project acquisitions
Acquisition of two projects will increase equity capacity by 875 MW
Hin Kong Power Burapa Power
Contracted
Capacity: 1,400 MW 540 MW
Consortium: 49% GULF
51% RATCH Group
35% GULF
65% NPS
Location: Hin Kong subdistrict,
Mueang district,
Ratchaburi province, Thailand
Khao Hin Son subdistrict,
Phanom Sarakham district,
Chachoengsao province, Thailand
Fuel Type: Gas-fired Gas-fired
PPA: Signed with EGAT for 25 years Signed with EGAT for 25 years
GSA: Under negotiation Signed with PTT for 25 years
SCOD: Unit 1: Mar 2024 (700 MW)
Unit 2: Jan 2025 (700 MW)
Nov 2027
Status: • Expect to get EIA approval within 2020
• Start construction by 2021
• Expect to get EIA approval within 2021
• Start construction by 2025
5
Commercial operation of GCG
Gulf Chana Green (GCG)
Installed
Capacity:25 MW
(100% interest)
Contracted
Capacity:
20.6 MW
Location: Chana district, Songkhla province, Thailand
Fuel Type: Parawood
Tarriff: EP + Ft + THB 1.3/kWh adder for 7 years
PPA: Signed with EGAT for 25 years
EPC: Signed with STEC
COD: Mar 1, 2020
Project Cost: THB 2,570 million
In operation
Under construction/
development
SONGKHLA
GCG achieved commercial operation on 1 March 2020, adding 25 MW to GULF’s portfolio
6
Map Ta Phut Ph.3 Laem Chabang Ph.3 M6 & M81 Motorways One Bangkok
Consortium: 70% GULF
30% PTT Tank Terminal
40% GULF
30% PTT Tank Terminal
30% China Harbour Engineering
40% GULF
40% BTS Group
10% STEC
10% RATCH Group
33% GULF
33% Mitsui & Co.
33% TGES
Investment Type: PPP PPP Net Cost PPP Gross Cost Private
Authority: Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand
(IEAT)
Port Authority of Thailand (PAT) Department of Highways (DOH) -
Scope: • Ph.1: Land reclamation
• Ph.2: LNG terminal
(up to 10.8 MTPA)
• Design, build, O&M F1 and F2
Terminals
• 4 MTEU/year
• Ph.1 Design & construction
➢ Toll collection system, traffic
management & control system
• Ph.2 O&M
• Electricity Distribution
• District Chilled Water Distribution
Construction
Period:
• Ph.1: 3 years (2020 – 2023)
• Ph.2: 4 years (2023 – 2027)
• F1: 3 years (2022 – 2024)
• F2: 3 years (2026 – 2028)
3 years (2020 – 2023) 2020 – 2024
Operation Period: 30 years 35 years 30 years 30 years
Investment Cost: THB [42.9] billion THB 30.0 billion [to be disclosed] THB 3.6 billion
Status: • PPP contract signed
• EPC contract expected to sign in
May 2020
• Construction starts (Q3’20)
• Under negotiation with PAT • PPP contract signing expected in
early June 2020
• Under EPC contract bidding
• EPC contract signing expected
between Q2’20 – Q3’20
Infrastructure and utilities projects in Thailand
New projects progressing in line with plan
7
Power projects in Vietnam
Projects expected to be included in PDP7 (revised) and PDP8 in phases
Mekong Wind LNG-to-Power
Installed
Capacity:up to 310 MW
• Gas-fired power plant: up to 6,000 MW
• LNG terminal: up to 6 MTPA
Shareholding: 95% GULF
5% TTC Group
TBA
Location: Ben Tre Province, Vietnam Ca Na, Ninh Thuan Province, Vietnam
Fuel Type: Offshore wind Gas-fired
Status & SCOD: • Phase 1 (30 MW): SCOD May 2021
Under construction
• Phases 2-3 (98 MW): SCOD Oct 2021
PPA signing expected in July 2020
• Phases 4-8 (182 MW):
Under MOIT consideration to be included in
PDP8 within [Q1’21]
• Phase 1 (1,500 MW):
Expected to be included in PDP7 within Q2'20
• Phases 2-4 (4,500 MW):
Expected to be consider to include in
PDP8 within [Q1’21]
8
DIPWP Potential Projects
Installed
Capacity:
Power: approx. 326 MW
Water: approx. 1,667 m3/hour
Location: Duqm Special Economic Zone (Duqm SEZ), Oman
Fuel Type: Gas/Diesel
PPA: Signed with Duqm refinery for 25 years (+5 years renewal)
Status &
SCOD:
SCOD: 2021 - 2022
Construction progress: 66.1%
Shareholding
Structure:
45% GULF
55% OQ group (Marafiq & Oman Oil Facilities Development)
Projects in Oman
Potential to expand business in Duqm SEZ
• GULF has plans to increase equity stake in Oman projects
and restructure shareholding to directly hold Marafiq shares
• Marafiq has exclusive rights to provide utility services in
Duqm SEZ for 25 years
• Opportunities to develop and operate future utilities projects
in Duqm SEZ with Marafiq:
Power
Business
Water
Business
Gas BusinessDuqm SEZ
9
Power projects in Laos
Hydro Power Projects
Installed
Capacity:2,366 MW in total (3 projects)
• Pak Beng (912 MW)
• Pak Lay (770 MW)
• Sanakham (684 MW)
Shareholding: GULF plans to hold 30% - 35% equity interest in each project
Location: Mekong River, Lao PDR
Fuel Type: Run of river hydro power plants
SCOD: 2027 - 2030
Status: Under tariff negotiation
Hydro power projects in Laos under tariff negotiation
Pak Beng
(912 MW)
Pak Lay
(770 MW)
Sanakham
(684 MW)
1
2
3
10
87%
13%
Industrial Users
Automotive,
45%
Construction
Material, 10%
Packaging,
9%
Electronics,
8%
Food &
Beverage,
6%
Petchem &
Chemicals, 6%
Textiles, 5%
Steel, 3%
Others, 9%
Most of Gulf’s power generation capacity are secured with
EGAT’s PPAs while industrial users are diverse in sectors
Limited impact on electricity sales
Limited impact on project progress
Projects under construction & development in Thailand
still progress as planned
Mekong Wind Phase 1 (30MW) experienced a slight delay with SCOD
postponed to May 2021 while tariff is maintained at 9.8 c/kWh
Impacts from COVID-19
Limited impact on GULF’s businesses from COVID-19
Q1’20 Financial Performance
Q1’20 Business Updates
Appendix
12
Total revenues
Total revenues in Q1’20 was THB 7,639 million
• QoQ: 8,670 MB → 7,639 MB (-11.9%) primarily from:
1) Decrease in sales revenue from THB 7,920 mil to THB 7,782 mil (-1.7%)
mainly due to:
• Planned maintenance shutdown (B-inspection) of GVTP under GMP for
18 days in February 2020, resulting in loss of EGAT revenue
• EGAT’s modification of 500kV transmission line in Rayong zone in March
2020, resulting in lower offtake from EGAT from 90 MW to 40 MW for 10
days from 6 SPPs (GVTP, GTS1, GTS2, GTS3, GTS4 and GNLL2) under
GMP. Nonetheless, the 6 SPPs still received full Capacity Payment (CP)
and EGAT will make up the shortage for the remaining of the year.
2) Share of loss mainly from GJP due to unrealized FX loss
• YoY: 7,496 MB → 7,639 MB (+1.9%) from:
1) Increase in sales revenue from THB 6,477 mil to THB 7,782 mil (+20.2%)
mainly from:
• full quarter revenue recognition of all 12 SPPs under GMP in Q1’20 (vs.
10 SPPs in Q1’19)
• full quarter revenue recognition of 2 solar power projects in Vietnam
(GTN1 and GTN2)
• GCG biomass power project, which commenced commercial operation
on 1 March 2020.
2) Nonetheless, increase in sales revenue was offset by share of loss mainly
from GJP due to unrealized FX lossNote:
1/ Consolidated sales revenue include electricity and steam sales from SPPs under GMP, electricity sales from VSPPs under Gulf Solar, electricity sales from GTN1 (from November 2019 following stake increase to 90%) and GTN2
2/ Share of profit include profit (loss) from GJP, GTN1 (from March – November 2019 before increasing the stake to 90%), DIPWP, Gulf WHA MT and BSE
3/ Consolidated other income include dividend income, interest income and other income
6,477
7,920 7,782
77
84
87 895
617
(267)
47
49
37 7,496
8,670
7,639
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
Sales revenue Management fee Share of profit Other income
+1.9% YoY
-11.9% QoQ
Full quarter recognition of projects that commenced operations in 2019 boosted up revenues YoY
Unit: THB million
13
655 470
619
240
150
(872)
895
620
(253)
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
Share of profit (excluding FX) Gain (loss) on FX
Share of profit from GJP (40%)
Share of profit from GJP (excl. FX) in Q1’20 was THB 619 million
• QoQ: 470 MB → 619 MB (+31.7%) primarily from:
1) Fewer number of plants undergone major overhaul (C-inspection of GCRN)
in Q1’20 vs. C-inspection of 3 SPPs (GKP1, GTLC and GNNK) in Q4’19
2) Higher Availability Payment (AP) from both GNS and GUT despite
B-inspection of GUT in Q1’20
3) Higher electricity, steam and chilled water demand from IUs in Q1’20
• YoY: 655 MB → 619 MB (-5.5%) from:
1) Major overhaul (C-inspection) of GCRN and B-inspection (18 days) of GUT in
Q1’20 while there were no major maintenance of power plants in Q1’19
2) EGAT’s 500kV transmission line modification in Rayong zone in March 2020,
resulting in lower offtake from EGAT from 90 MW to 40 MW for 10 days for
GNLL
Share of loss from GJP (incl. FX) in Q1’20 was THB 253 million
• a decline of net profit mainly from the depreciation of THB against USD, resulting in massive unrealized FX loss
(Q1’19: 31.9785 THB/USD, Q4’19: 30.3313 THB/USD, Q1’20: 32.8298
THB/USD)
-5.5% YoY
+31.7%QoQ
Share of profit from GJP declined YoY from planned shutdown and unrealized FX loss
Unit: THB million
14
857 671
925
436
234
(1,338)
1,293
905
(413)
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
Core profit Gain (loss) on FX
Core profit / Net profit
Core profit in Q1’20 was THB 925 million
• QoQ: 671 → 925 (+37.9%) primarily from:
1) Higher share of profit from GJP mainly from fewer number of power plant
maintenance and higher AP of 2 IPPs
• YoY: 857 → 925 (+8.0%) from:
1) full quarter profit recognition of 12SPPs and 2 solar projects in Vietnam inQ1’20 vs. 10 SPPs in Q1’19
2) lower natural gas price (282.02 → 267.38 THB/mmbtu) while Ft remained flat
Net loss in Q1’20 was THB 413 million
• QoQ: from unrealized FX gain of THB 234 mil in Q4’19 to unrealized FX loss of
THB 1,338 mil in Q1’20 due to depreciation of THB against USD
• YoY: from unrealized FX gain of THB 436 mil in Q1’19 to unrealized FX loss of
THB 1,338 mil
+8.0% YoY
FX Rate at End of Period
(THB/USD)
Q4’18 32.6148
Q1’19 31.9785
Q3’19 30.7661
Q4’19 30.3313
Q1’20 32.8298
Overall core profit improvement QoQ and YoY
Natural Gas Price
(THB/mmbtu)
Ft
(THB)
Q1’19 282.02 (0.116)
Q4’19 266.36 (0.116)
Q1’20 267.38 (0.116)
+37.9%QoQ
Unit: THB million
15
Plant performance
Improved heat rate from GJP plants
GJP – 2 IPPs (3,406 MW) GJP – 7 SPPs (831 MW) GMP – 12 SPPs (1,435 MW)
Average Heat Rate
(BTU/kWh)
Plant Availability
(%)
Dispatch Factor
(%)
6,966
6,852 6,824
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
99.7%94.0% 94.8%
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
26.6%
47.7%36.4%
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
7,677 7,665 7,645
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
99.1%
89.9%
97.0%
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
80.8%73.3% 76.8%
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
7,411 7,427 7,428
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
99.6% 98.2% 97.2%
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
83.7% 81.0% 76.2%
Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
16
Group Project Type COD2019 2020
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
GJP
GKP1 SPP
2013
GKP2 SPP
GTLC SPP
GNNK SPP
GNLL SPP
GCRN SPP
GNK2 SPP
GNS IPP 2014
GUT IPP 2015
GMP
GVTP SPP
2017GTS1 SPP
GTS2 SPP
GTS3 SPP
GTS4 SPP
2018GNC SPP
GBL SPP
GBP SPP
GNLL2 SPP
2019GNPM SPP
GNRV1 SPP
GNRV2 SPP
As of April 2020
A B C
A (3 days)
CI (10 days)
CI (1 days)
SIEMENS
MHPS
GE
B (18 days)
TI (18 days)
HGPI (18 days)
C (22 days)
MI (35 days)
MO (22 days)
C
C
C
C
A C
CA
A
A
B
A
A
C
A
B
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
B
A
A
B
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
Maintenance schedule
17
Financial Instruments Standard (TFRS 9)
• The Company is required to measure fair value of interest rate swap (IRS)
derivatives in the financial statements (prior periods only required foreign exchange
rate derivatives to be measured at fair value).
• The measurement of IRS derivatives does not affect income statements since the
company applies hedge accounting; instead, the measurement is recorded in other
comprehensive income until derecognition, when the hedged items are gradually
reclassified to profit or loss.
Leases Standard (TFRS 16)
• The Company is required to recognize right-of-use assets and lease liabilities
arising from lease contracts which have a lease term of over 12 months in the
financial statements.
• The Company has an office building lease contract, car lease contracts and right-of-
way lease contracts. Under TFRS 16, the Company recorded interest incurred
from lease liabilities and amortization from the rights to use assets instead of
recording lease expenses.
TFRS 9 & TFRS 16 impacts
The adoption of TFRS 9 and TFRS 16 does not impact income statements
Impacts from TFRS 9 & TFRS 16 adoption in Q1’20 (THB million)
TFRS 9 TFRS 16 Total
Assets (120) 738 618
Liabilities 17,060 796 17,856
Equity 17,180 (58) (17,238)
18
Balance sheet
Total assets was THB 141,828 million
+5.6% mainly from:
• increase in PPE from construction of GSRC
• increase in advance payment for construction of
GPD
• increase in deferred tax assets from IRS
derivatives fair value measurement required
under TFRS9
111,861 118,263
7,607 8,086 14,810
15,479134,278
141,828
31-Dec-19 31-Mar-20
Cash, cash equivalents & deposits used as collateral
Other current assets
Non-current assets
+5.6%
Total assets
Total liabilities was THB 110,276 million
+29.4% mostly from:
• Current: GULF’s working capital borrowings
and accounts payable for GSRC construction
• Non-current: increase in financial derivative
liabilities (mostly IRS contracts) from TFRS9
adoption and long-term loan drawdowns for the
GSRC & GPD construction
75,429 98,511
9,809
11,76585,238
110,276
31-Dec-19 31-Mar-20
Current liabilities
Non-current liabilities
+29.4%
Total liabilities
Total equity was THB 31,552 million
-35.7% mainly from:
• decrease in other components of equity and
non-controlling interests mostly due to lossfrom fair value measurement of IRS contracts
required under TFRS9
Total equity
10,613 6,392
1,174 1,174
(790) (13,583)
6,4886,014
31,55631,556
49,04031,552
31-Dec-19 31-Mar-20
-35.7%
Paid-up capital and share premium
Retained earnings
Other equity
Non-controlling interests
Other components of equity
Unit: THB million
19
D/E ratios
Leverage ratios still relatively low (1.51x) compared to bond covenant (3.50x)
1.74
3.50
1.27
2.16
1.25
1.51
31-Dec-19 31-Mar-20
D/E ratios
Note:
*Shareholders’ equity used in the calculation of net
IBD/E (adjusted) ratio excludes other components of
equity to be in line with bond covenant
D/E
Net IBD/E
Net IBD/E (adjusted)*
14,810
85,23877,161
62,351
49,040 49,830
15,479
110,276
83,490
68,011
31,552
45,135
31-Dec-19 31-Mar-20
Cash, cash equivalents
and deposits used as
collateral
Net interest-bearing
debt
Shareholders’
equity
Shareholders’ equity
(excl. other components
of equity)
Total liabilities Interest-bearing
debt
Unit: THB million
Q1’20 Financial Performance
Appendix
Q1’20 Business Updates
21
Power Generation
(Conventional)Renewable Energy Hydropower Gas Infrastructure & Utilities
Ex
isti
ng
Pro
jec
ts
13,366 MW 484 MW
GJP
(4,237 MW)
GMP
(1,563 MW)
IPD
(5,300 MW)
HKP
(1,400 MW)
BPG
(540 MW)
DIPWP (326 MW)
Gulf Solar
(0.6 MW)
GCG
(25 MW)
GTN1 & GTN2
(119 MW)
Mekong Wind
(310 MW)
Mekong Solar
(30 MW)
Natural Gas Distribution
(4,000,000 mmbtu/year)
LNG terminal
(up to 10.8 MTPA)
MTP3
[LCP3]
M6 Intercity Motorway
(196 km)
M81 Intercity Motorway
(96 km)
One BKK
- Electricity (240 MW)
- District Chilled Water
(40,000 RT)
Pro
sp
ec
ts LNG-to-power
(up to 6,000 MW)
Oman replacement
(up to 2,000 MW)
Laos Hydropower
(2,366 MW)
Other infrastructure projects
Business overview
22
Power capacity growth (committed PPAs)
Note: 1/ Gulf's equity stake in GJP was 10% until August 15, 2016 when the stake was increased to 40%; equity installed capacities for 2013-2016 are based on the pro-forma 40% stake for comparison purposes2/ Include the gas-fired power project in Oman
320 982
1,683 1,683 1,964 2,253 2,701 2,726 2,726
3,995
5,051
5,978
7,249 7,592 7,592 7,781
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 May-20 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
GJP GMP IPD GCG Gulf Solar Vietnam Oman HKP BPG Total
831
2,485
4,237 4,237 4,772
5,282 5,919 5,944 5,944
7,649
9,260
10,585
12,610 13,310 13,310
13,850
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 May-20 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
GJP GMP IPD GCG Gulf Solar Vietnam Oman HKP BPG Total
1
1
1 1
1
1
1 1
Gross Installed Capacity (MW):
Equity Installed Capacity (MW):
57% 40%
2%
May 2020
5,944MW
IPP SPP Renewables
79%
17%
3%
Year 2027
13,850MW
2
Gross Capacity by Plant Types
50% 45%
5%
May 2020
2,726MW
IPP SPP Renewables
78%
16%
6%
Year 2027
7,781MW
2
Equity Capacity by Plant Types
23
87%
13%
95%
5%
✓ 15 Years Long Term Agreement
✓ Minimum Take
✓ 18.4 – 44.9 MW potential Industrial Users expansion in 2020
Industrial Users
2019
2027E
Diversified across sectors including:
Automotive, Construction and Building Materials,
Food and Beverage, Electronics, Packaging,
Paper and Printing Materials and Petrochemicals, etc.
Percentage of Power sold to EGAT and Industrial Users
24
• All of the power projects in Thailand have long term loans of 20 - 23 years (vs. PPA term of 25 years).
• To mitigate interest rate fluctuation, the company entered into interest rate swaps to swap interest rate from floating rate into fixed rate for 18 - 20 years.
40% 70% 100%
THB 7,500 mn
in debentures
75%*
55%
45%
72%
28%
USD 945 mn
THB 38,410 mn
USD 428 mn
THB 36,840 mn
89%
11% USD 63 mn
THB 17,397 mn
100%THB 1,806 mn
THB 69,420 mn THB 50,904 mn THB 19,466 mnTotal loan
outstanding: (THB equivalent)
THB 1,806 mn
100%THB 3,545 mn
THB 3,545 mn
75%*
THB 1,000 mn in
working capital borrowings&
Debt outstanding
As of Mar 31, 2020
Note:
* Based on % profit sharing received from GSRC & GPD
** FX rate: 32.8298 THB/USD
*** Debt outstanding exclude subsidiaries’ working capital borrowings
This document is for information and reference only and does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell
or issue or subscription of, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire any securities of Gulf Energy Development Public Company
Limited (the “Company”) in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity.
The information contained in this document has not been independently verified. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or
implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, reliability, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the
information or the opinions contained herein. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their
own judgment. The information contained in this document should be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the time
and has not been, and will not be, updated to reflect developments which may occur after the date of the document. None of the Company
or any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees, agents, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or
otherwise) for any damages or loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with
the document.
This document contains "forward-looking statements", which include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including,
without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words "targets", "believes", "expects", "aims", "intends",
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and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the control of the Company that could cause the actual results,
performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or
implied by such forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to rely on such forward-looking statements. Neither the Company nor
any of its respective affiliates, agents, employees, advisors or representatives intends or has any duty or obligation to supplement, amend,
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this document should be not treated as an indication that the Company agrees with or concurs with such views.
Disclaimer
IR ContactGulf Energy Development Public Company Limited
Investor Relations Department
87 M.Thai Tower 11th Floor, All Seasons Place, Wireless Road,
Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
Tel: +66(0) 2080 4488
Fax: +66(0) 2080 4455
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.gulf.co.th