h h c h h chh h c h h c h h c h h c h h c h h c h h c h h c h h c h hh methane gas c:h = 1:4 typical...
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H
H
C
H
H
CH H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
HH
Methane Gas
C:H = 1:4
Typical Oil
Typical Coal
C:H = 1:2
C:H = 2:1
H
H
H
H
H
C
H
C
C C
C C
C C
H H
C
C
C
C
H C
C
C
C
C
C
H
H
C
C
C
C
C
C H
Carbon-Hydrogen Composition of Fossil Fuels
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 210010-2
10-1
100
101
102
Decarbonization: Evolution of the Ratio of Hydrogen (H) to Carbon (C) in the World Primary Fuel Mix
Methane: H/C = 4
Oil: H/C = 2
Coal: H/C = 1
Wood: H/C = 0.1
Hydrogen Economy
Methane Economy
NonfossilHydrogen
H / CH
H + C
0.67
0.09
0.50
0.80
Year
t = 300 years (length of process)
1935 (midpoint of process)
0.90
Source: Ausubel, 1996, after Marchetti, 1985
Falling Global Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Kg
C/G
J
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
USA: Hydrogen Production, 1971-1999Semi-log scale
104
105
106
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
mil
lio
ns
of
cu
bic
fe
et
Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2002
Chernobyl, 1990
Supergrid Energy Pipeline
MgB2
MgB2
ElectricalInsulation
ThermalInsulation
Vacuum
Liquid H2
@ 21 K
± 50,000 Vdc
100,000 A10 GW
Source: P. Grant, EPRI
N. M. Victor and J. H. Ausubel, 2001
Uranium inventories at US utilities per kWh generated vs. cumulative electricity generation from nuclear,
learning rates 1984-1999
Gas consumed at US utilities per kWh generated vs. cumulative electricity generation from gas,
Learning rates 1920-2002
1
10
100
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
GWh
cu.f
t./k
Wh
19201920-1930LR=11.6%
1930-1950LR=4.9%
1950-1970LR=8.5% 1970-2002
LR=8%
2002
19301950
1970
Source: N. M. Victor & J. H. Ausubel, 2004
Coal consumed at US utilities per kWh Generated vs. cumulative electricity generation from coal,
Learning rates 1920-2002
0.1
1
10
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
GWh
lb/k
Wh
1920 1920-1930LR 14.7%
1930-1950LR 8.7% 1950-1970
LR 10.9%1970-2002LR –4.2%
2002
19301950
1970
Source: N. M. Victor & J. H. Ausubel, 2004
Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003
Hydrocarbon fuels ranked by heat value
Major fuels ranked by heat value
Uranium enriched to 3.5% in LWR
Firewood
Brown Coals
Crude Oils
LPG
Natural Gas
Hydrogen
Natural uranium in FBR
Natural uranium in CANDU
Natural uranium in LWR
with U & Pu recycle
Natural uranium in LWR
100
102
104
106
108
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
MJ/
kg
Black Coals
Source: N. Victor and J. Ausubel, 2003