harrow council stock condition survey validation june 2005

Harrow Council Stock Condition Survey Validation June 2005

Harrow Council Stock Condition Survey

Contents

HARROW COUNCIL – STOCK CONDITION SURVEY VALIDATION

CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................. 4 2.0 OBJECTIVE ......................................................................................................................................... 4 3.0 PART 1: VALIDATION OF THE STOCK CONDITION SURVEY ........................................................ 6

3.1 The Stock condition Brief ..................................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Stock Profile and Sampling Procedures .............................................................................................. 6 3.4 Data Capture........................................................................................................................................ 7 3.5 Life Cycles and Schedule of Rates...................................................................................................... 7 3.6 Results of the Stock Condition Survey................................................................................................. 8 3.7 Sensitivity ............................................................................................................................................. 9 3.8 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 10

4.0 PART 2 ASSESSING THE CURRENT 30 YEAR COST PROFILE .................................................. 11 4.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 11 4.2 Stock Numbers................................................................................................................................... 11 4.3 Life Cycles.......................................................................................................................................... 11 4.4 Schedule of Rates.............................................................................................................................. 12 5.2 Future Major Works............................................................................................................................ 13 5.3 Improvements .................................................................................................................................... 14 5.4 Responsive Maintenance................................................................................................................... 15 5.5 Void Works......................................................................................................................................... 16 5.6 Cyclical Maintenance ......................................................................................................................... 16 5.8 Disabled Adaptations..................................................................................................................... 17 5.9 Exceptional Extensive Works............................................................................................................. 18

6.0 OVERALL RESULTS/BENCHMARKING .......................................................................................... 19 6.1 Financial results ................................................................................................................................. 19 6.2 Benchmarking .................................................................................................................................... 20

7.0 DECENT HOMES .............................................................................................................................. 21 8.0 SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................... 24 9.0 PART 3 INVESTMENT SCENARIOS................................................................................................ 25


Contents

APPENDICES Appendix 1 Original Survey Results - Detailed Elemental Breakdown

Appendix 2 Schedule of Rates and Life Cycles From The Original Survey

Appendix 3 Revised Schedule of Rates and Life cycles

Appendix 4 Revised Detailed Elemental Breakdown Appendix 5 Investment Scenarios


HARROW COUNCIL – STOCK CONDITION SURVEY VALIDATION 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Approximately 2 years ago the Council commissioned a stock condition survey to establish the

overall maintenance liability of the housing stock, including decent homes. This information was

collected by an external surveying practice and was subsequently loaded onto the Councils software

system ‘Codeman’ to facilitate accurate reporting.

1.2 The Council are in the process of a stock option appraisal exercise, which will necessitate that

robust transparent information is available to reflect the overall financial obligations placed upon the

Council to maintain all aspects of its housing stock.

1.3 It has become apparent that a validation exercise should be undertaken at this stage to ensure that

the information held by the Council resulting from the condition survey, satisfies this requirement

and is appropriate to take forward for the option appraisal exercise.

1.4 Savills were commissioned on the basis of delivering three key pieces of work for Harrow Council:

• To provide an independent validation of the original stock condition survey

• To provide a set of reflective costs spanning a 30 year horizon to facilitate the stock options

appraisal exercise

• To provide 3 cost projections based upon different levels of investment to the housing stock

2.0 OBJECTIVE

2.1 Achieving a clear statement as to the 30 year financial liabilities of the Council was the main

objective of this validation process. It is worth pointing out that it was not the intention of this project

to discover errors and draw attention to any negative issues but to work towards providing a set of

costs that can ultimately be taken forward with confidence.


2.2 To achieve this objective a clear distinction has to be made between the various investment

categories, in order to build up the overall cost profile e.g. replacing building components as derived

by the condition survey is reasonably straight forward, but there is also a need to consider day to

day maintenance and void costs etc.


3.0 PART 1: VALIDATION OF THE STOCK CONDITION SURVEY

3.1 The Stock condition Brief 3.1.1 Although no official brief has been considered by Savills, it is clear from the documentation and

discussions with the Council that the firm of surveyors (NBA) were asked to carry out a

representative sample survey of the whole stock. The data collected as part of this survey has been

loaded into the councils software system (Codeman). This software system has fully cloned the

survey data along with applying appropriate costs to the survey items etc. Consequently this data

base is thought to accurately demonstrate the overall financial responsibility based upon the Council

regarding elemental replacements to the housing stock.

3.1.2 It should be noted that there was no requirement for the surveying practice to produce a report

stating the survey methodology, frequency of surveyed properties, and overall results etc. Nor was

there any requirement to consider any additional financial liabilities placed upon the Council outside

of the survey results. Consequently the following cost categories were not included as part of the

survey process:

• Disabled Adaptations

• Cyclical Maintenance

• Void Works

• Responsive Maintenance

• Exceptional Extensive works

• Environmental Improvements

• Related Assets

3.3 Stock Profile and Sampling Procedures 3.3.1 The housing stock at the time of the survey totalled approximately 5,200 properties. Reflecting our

comments in 3.1.2 It is assumed that as part of the survey process, care was taken to ensure that all

property archetypes were inspected at an appropriate frequency to ensure statistical accuracy was

achieved to the whole stock.


3.3.2 Through discussions with the Council it has been made clear that approximately 20% of the stock

was inspected internally and 100% externally. A survey carried out to this frequency is considered

appropriate by Savills to produce statistically accurate results, providing the sample surveys were

weighted appropriately.

3.4 Data Capture 3.4.1 It is understood that the ‘Codeman’ software system dictated the survey collection regime, and

content, to the surveying practice. Savills have reviewed this data regime, and can confirm that the

surveying practice have collected data consistent with this requirement. However, it should be

noted that although all the expected main component headings are present in this survey dialogue,

certain smaller components, that will inevitably have a cost impact, are not included. These items

are summarised below:

• External boundaries (fences, walls etc)

• External paths/drives/hardstandings etc

• External stores

• Common electrics (door entry systems, fire alarms, warden call alarms etc.

• Lifts

3.4.2 Due to the timing of the original survey it was not considered necessary to carry out any site

validations to ensure the information collected by the original survey team was truly reflective of the

condition of the housing stock today. Consequently it is assumed that the survey was conducted

professionally and overseen by the Council at the time to ensure quality of data. It should be noted

that the Council have been ensuring that this original data set is up to date, and have demonstrated

a commitment to ensuring that as and when components are replaced, the appropriate property gets

credited with this replacement in the database.

3.5 Life Cycles and Schedule of Rates 3.5.1 The key drivers influencing the survey results and levels of costings are the schedule of life cycles

and schedule of rates that are applied to the survey data. It is believed that the schedule specifying

the life cycles and costings was set by the Council for the original survey, based on their experience

of letting contracts in the local area.


3.5.2 The cost of replacing building components is based on procuring the work by means of letting

reasonably large contracts rather than works to individual properties. Rates paid by an organisation

of this size and location are very much dependant on the local market. We have not undertaken a

detailed review of the market conditions or the prevailing rates in the area. We assume this review

was undertaken as part of the stock condition survey process, and the rates reflect local

circumstances in terms of both levels of specification to be adopted and price levels paid locally.

3.5.3 Generally, the unit rates are set at a level appropriate for the time of the survey. However it should

be noted that no updating of these rates appears to have taken place since the original survey.

Consequently an uplift to these rates reflecting current costs is applicable, and is dealt with in

section of 2 of this report. Appendix 2 provides detail regarding the individual costs applied to the

original survey elements.

3.5.4 Building component life cycles generate costs for the subsequent replacement of elements after

their first renewal. Savills have reviewed the life cycles used as part of the survey and can confirm

that generally they are in line with expectations, with the exception of Kitchens, which are set a 15

year life. Savills experience and that of the industry suggest a life expectancy of 20 years is more

appropriate, however it is assumed that this was agreed at the time of the survey as being reflective

of the experience of the council. Appendix 2 provides detail regarding the individual life

expectancies applied to the original survey elements.

3.6 Results of the Stock Condition Survey 3.6.1 Overall the 30-year forecast expenditure from the database equals to £122,129,784 equating to

£23,486 per unit over the 30 year horizon. Comparable benchmarks range from £23,000 to

28,000 per unit (based at the same survey date and including preliminaries), which suggests that

this figure is at the lower end of expectations.

3.6.2 The following demonstrates the expenditure profile based on the data held in the database.


0

5

10

15

20

25

Millions

1 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30Age Bands

3.6.3 This graph illustrate that although each of the year bands are relatively even a peak of expenditure

exists every 15 years. The reason for these peaks is not due to one element in particular.

Additional elemental information is given in Appendix 1. This type of profile is unfamiliar to Savills

as we would typically expect the first 5 year band to be significantly higher, reflecting a significant

investment need in the short term.

3.7 Sensitivity 3.7.1 To ensure the accuracy of the core condition data various sensitivity analysis have been carried out

by Savills. Although a degree of discrepancies exist within the data, generally these discrepancies

are not considered by Savills to have any material impact on the overall figures. Savills have also

run analysis to ensure that each property has been credited with the appropriate key component

replacements such as kitchens and bathrooms etc. The results of these interrogations

demonstrated that in the main, this is the case, with each property being credited with the expected

replacement components over the 30 year horizon.


3.8 Conclusion

3.7.1 The survey itself appears to have been carried out in a manner appropriate to the objectives of the

instruction. Savills have no significant concerns relating to the raw survey data, suffice to say that

the omissions highlighted in item 3.4.1, and subsequent comments in item 3.5 could lead to the

overall financial liabilities of the housing stock being distorted.


4.0 PART 2 ASSESSING THE CURRENT 30 YEAR COST PROFILE

4.1 Overview 4.1.1 In order to satisfy the second part of this validation process it is necessary to consider all of the

relevant cost categories for which the Council will have a financial responsibility for over the 30 year

period. To achieve this we have broken down the financial liabilities into specific cost categories

and, where appropriate, utilised existing information. Where information was not available we have

worked closely with the council to predict the likely financial impact of each category based on our

experience and that of the Councils.

4.1.2 Before any cost information was generated Savills had to be certain that the background

methodology to build up any of these costs was sound. The following methodology demonstrates

the steps taken to ensure a sound basis was behind the figures.

4.2 Stock Numbers

4.2.1 As with all 30 year profiles a clear statement needs to be made regarding how many properties the

costs apply to. Since the original survey properties have been sold by the right to buy scheme,

which has resulted in a drop in overall stock numbers. For the purpose of this report a stock number

of 5,175 properties, along with other associated assets, has been taken forward, which is deemed to

be correct at the time of this report. Consequently all costs given in this report relate to this number

of properties.

4.3 Life Cycles

4.3.1 Every building component has a life expectancy at which it is deemed to require replacement.

Suffice to say that there are many outside factors that can impact on how long a particular

component will last:

• Usage

• Abuse

• Quality of materials

• Quality of workmanship during installation

• Weathering etc


4.3.2 It is exactly these outside influences that, to a degree, necessitate a condition survey to be

undertaken, so that a pragmatic/professional opinion can be made as to the degree of remaining life

each particular component has left. However, certain components will require replacement more

than once during the 30 year horizon, and it is in this event that life expectancies play an important

roll e.g. a boiler may have a life expectancy of 15 years. If at the time of survey the boiler is brand

new a replacement date in 15 years time will be recorded. However in this instance a second

replacement will also be recorded in 30 years time.

4.3.3 Through discussions with the Council, and taking due regard for industry standards, a schedule of

life expectancies has been agreed and is illustrated in Appendix 3 and is summarised below:

Element Life Expectancy Kitchen 20 years Bathroom 30 years Window replacement 30 years External front door replacement 30 years

4.4 Schedule of Rates

4.4.1 It is obviously essential that the cost of replacing building components applied to the survey data is

reflective of building costs today. Savills have a wide range of experience in letting contracts in

social housing, and through reviewing the original schedule of rates and discussions with key

members of staff of the Council, an exercise was carried out to ensure that the Schedule of rates

applied to the survey data was truly reflective of both Savills, and the Councils experience.

Appendix 3 demonstrates the schedule of rates applied to the data and used for the basis of this

report. In line with industry standards these rates include preliminaries but exclude VAT, fees,

decanting residents etc. A summary of these rates is given below:

Element Cost Kitchen £4,000 Bathroom £1,600 Window replacement £2,750 External front door replacement £700


5.0 COST CATEGORIES

5.1 The Council have made available cost information derived from the stock condition survey, resulting

from the methodology illustrated in Part 1 of this report. This information basically covers all

financial provisions over the next 30 years to replace building components to the housing stock

when required. However to establish a complete picture as to the future financial liabilities placed

upon the Council, additional cost categories have also been considered. The following section

identifies each of these categories and provides information relating to the build up of these costs.

All costs included within this section excludes V.A.T. and Fees, but includes preliminaries

5.2 Future Major Works

5.2.1 This cost category represents the replacement of all existing building components identified by the

survey data. The build up of these costs are derived from the methodology in Part 1 of this report,

having due regard to the difference in stock numbers since the original survey, and the rolling

forward of the base year by 2 years, and reflects the overall condition of the housing stock at the

current time. Any additional replacement items not covered by the survey have been agreed with

the council as being reflective of the current condition of these elements. In addition to this

feedback was provided by various in house resources relating to the prioritisation of certain works

on specific geographical areas. This information has also been included within the build up of this

cost heading.

5.2.2 The overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this category is £134,927,119 or £26,073 per

property.

5.2.3 Although Appendix 4 provides a detailed elemental breakdown across each of the main elements

over time, many of these elements can be grouped together to form generic categories to simplify

the costs. The following graphic demonstrates these categories over the 30 year period:


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Millions

Years 1-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-15 Years 16-20 Years 21-25 Years 26-30

Kitchens Bathrooms Heating Electrics Roof/Chim/Gutters Walls Windows/Doors External work Other

5.2.4 This graphic demonstrates that although within the first 5 years the investment need is the greatest,

the individual element replacements vary considerably. E.g. kitchens require a high level of

investment in the first 5 years whilst roofing works require a low investment. However in years 11-

15 kitchen investment drops as roof work increases, reflecting the general condition of each

element. This type of profile is familiar to Savills and reflects the view of the Council.

5.3 Improvements 5.3.1 The Future Major Works section above reflects the future financial position relating to replacing

existing elements. This improvement section however, deals with the installation of items that did

not previously exist and are considered appropriate to bring the stock up to a generally higher

standard, reflecting the aspirations of the Council and its residents. Although the original survey did

not specifically collect data relating to this heading Savills have worked closely with the Council, and

various resident groups, to agree the improvements appropriate to include under this cost category.

Appendix 4 demonstrates the financial implications of carrying out these improvements. The

following list summarises the key improvement headings.


Installing loft and wall insulation

Install smoke detectors

Installing adequate sound insulation measures

Improved boundary provision to properties

Providing off road parking

Providing the option of showers over baths

Installing external lighting to common and garage areas

Install video entry phones to blocks of flats where appropriate

Providing additional window locks

Converting bedsit accommodation to self contained units where appropriate

5.3.2 The overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this category has been assessed as £22,240,100.

5.4 Responsive Maintenance

5.4.1 In order to fully demonstrate the financial liabilities over the 30 year horizon, consideration has been

given to responsive maintenance (or day to day repairs). These items of work are, by their very

nature, reactive and as such are impossible to predict at the time of any inspection. The work

carried out under this heading will apply to slipped roof tiles, burst water pipes, broken windows etc.

5.4.2 The Council provided financial out-turn information relating to this area of work which has been

interrogated by Savills to ensure the following:

• No double counting exists within Future Major Works

• The current allowance is sufficient to satisfy the need for the service

• The value taken forward is appropriate in the long term

5.4.3 The result of these interrogations has produced an overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this

category of £80,175,870 5.4.4 Appendix 4 provides additional information to the build up of this allowance.


5.5 Void Works

5.5.1 As with the responsive maintenance category, consideration has also been given to the costs

associated with the re-letting of properties once they become void, to fully demonstrate the 30 year

costs associated with the stock.

5.5.2 Information provided from the Council relating to this category has been interrogated by Savills to

ensure the following

• No double counting exists within Future Major Works

• The current allowance is sufficient to satisfy the need for the service

• The value taken forward is appropriate in the long term

5.5.3 The result of these interrogations has produced an overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this

category of £6,300,000 5.5.4 Appendix 4 provides additional information to the build up of this allowance.

5.6 Cyclical Maintenance

5.6.1 Work under this heading applies to the cyclical servicing and maintenance to components within the

stock but not the replacement.

5.6.2 Although the likelihood of any potential double counting within this category is limited checks were

carried out to ensure that this provision was adequate to satisfy the demand and that no hidden

costs existed within the information supplied.

5.6.3 The overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this category is £21,180,000 5.6.4 Appendix 4 provides additional information to the build up of this allowance.


5.7 Contingencies

5.7.1 As with any housing stock unforeseen expenditure will inevitably be required over the 30 year period

which cannot be accurately assessed at the time of survey, these works may typically include:

• Lintel failure

• Drain failure

• Wall tie failure

• Subsidence

• Roof spread

• Etc

5.7.2 Through discussions with the Council and in line with industry standards an allowance of 2% of

Future Major Works has been taken forward. Appendix 4 demonstrates the profile of this cost in

more detail. In addition to this a further allowance has been made in respect of the increasing

responsibility placed upon social landlords to adequately manage Asbestos Containing Materials.

Whilst the council is aware of this responsibility, no information was available at the time of this

validation process relating to asbestos surveys being undertaken. However, based on historic

expenditure an allowance under this heading for the extra over cost associated with managing

asbestos in the housing stock has been allowed for under this heading.

5.7.3 The overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this category is £2,367,134.

5.8 Disabled Adaptations

5.8.1 Over the 30 year period the Council has responsibility to accommodate the changing needs of its

residents relating to a variety of adaptations that may be required to the housing stock. These may

include, but are not limited to:

• Providing ramped access to the front door

• Providing Hand rails

• Providing full wheelchair access, Wider doors, lower electrical sockets etc

• Through floor lifts

• Providing showers

• Extensions etc


5.8.2 Information was provided to Savills relating to the current annual provision to satisfy the demand for

this type of work. This information was interrogated for hidden or inappropriate costs headings and

then taken forward for the cost summary in Appendix 4

5.8.3 The overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this category is £15,000,000.

5.9 Exceptional Extensive Works 5.9.1 Exceptional extensive works generally apply to any specific items of work to be carried out that will

address specific problems that may be present in the housing stock. Through discussions with the

Council certain items of work have been identified that are appropriate to be included under this cost

heading. Items currently identified are as follows:

Digital Aerials Reflecting the need for the Council to provide digital aerials (where

appropriate) to the housing stock, when ultimately analogue transmitters

are made redundant throughout the country, an appropriate allowance has

been made under this cost heading.

Non Trad Properties As with all non traditional properties it is generally considered appropriate to

allow a cost provision under this heading for future works, to ensure the

ongoing sustainability of these properties. No specialist surveys have been

carried out to these properties to accurately predict the future liability in this

regard. Consequently Savills have worked closely with the Council to allow

an appropriate allowance under this heading for the various non traditional

construction types that exist within the housing stock. It is Savills

recommendation that the council considers carrying out specialist, intrusive

surveys of these properties to accurately ascertain the potential future cost

liability to these properties.

5.9.2 The overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this category is £2,030,000. Appendix 4 provides

additional financial information regarding this category


5.10 Environmental Improvements 5.10.1 This final cost category reflects the works to accommodate environmental issues to the housing

stock to ensure that the areas in which the housing stock is located is maintained to a standard

reflecting the changing needs of residents over the 30 year period and may include: Enhanced hard

and soft landscaping, additional play areas etc.

5.10.2 The overall cost across the 30 year horizon for this category is £776,250 . Appendix 4 provides

additional financial information regarding this category

6.0 OVERALL RESULTS/BENCHMARKING 6.1 Financial results

6.1.1 The following graphic demonstrates the overall expenditure profile of all of the cost categories, and

includes for all maintenance and improvement measures highlighted in this section of the report.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80M

illions

1 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30

Year Bands


6.1.2 The following graphic demonstrates each cost category across each of the 5 year bands

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Millions

Years 1-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-15 Years 16-20 Years 21-25 Years 26-30

Future Major Works Improvements Responsive/Void/Cyclical Other

6.1.3 The graphics above clearly demonstrate that in the short term a considerable investment is required

to maintain and improve the stock. This investment need reduces in the mid term and, as the

building components age in line with their life expectancy, the need rises again in the long term.

This type of profile is not only very familiar to Savills for a stock of this type and location, but is also

consistent with that of the council.

6.2 Benchmarking

6.2.1 Savills were asked by the Council to give a view as to how the overall financial results compare to

other organisations that we have worked with over recent years. As with all benchmarking a

pragmatic approach is required in order to compare similar organisation. Savills have benchmarked

the overall results of this validation process with 3 other organisations of similar stock types in the

south of England. In order to overcome the obvious difficulties of differing stock numbers between

organisations the benchmarking was carried out on a cost per property basis over the 30 year

horizon. The results of this exercise are given below.


52.5

53

53.5

54

54.5

55

55.5

56

56.5

Cost per unit Thousands

Harrow Council A Council B Council C

6.2.2 The result of this benchmarking exercise demonstrates that the results of the processes highlighted

in this report has produced a set of results that over a 30 year horizon are within Savills benchmark

expectations.

7.0 DECENT HOMES

7.1 Having due regard for the national guidance for assessing the decent homes standard the original

survey collected data relating to the standard. The outputs from the database makes clear that

approximately 48% of the stock currently fail the standard. Although Savills have not carried out a

specific validation of the software used to assess the standard the overall results are in line with

expectation of a stock of this type and location.

7.2 A Decent home, as described by Central Government, is one that is wind and weather tight, warm

and has modern facilities. In order for a social landlord to achieve this aim any individual dwelling

must meet the following criteria:

a) It meets the current statutory minimum standard for housing This is currently defined as properties becoming unfit under section 604 of the Housing Act (as

amended by the 1989 Local Government and Housing Act). It is expected that the future

minimum standard may be based on the Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS),

first published as a guidance paper in July 2000 by the former DETR.


b) It is a reasonable state of repair Dwellings that fail this criterion are those elements such as roofs, rewires, boilers etc that are old

(i.e. their age exceeds their life cycle) and in poor condition (i.e. identified by the surveyor as

needing replacement or a major repair).

c) It has reasonably modern facilities and services

The guidance lists six points of failure and any individual dwelling must fail on three or more

items to be deemed as non-decent. These items are:

• A reasonably modern kitchen (less than 20 years old)

• A kitchen with adequate space and layout

• A reasonably modern bathroom (less than 30 years old)

• An appropriately located bathroom and WC

• Adequate insulation against external noise (where noise is a problem)

• Adequate size and layout of common areas to blocks of flats

d) It provides a reasonable degree of thermal comfort

This criterion requires dwellings to have both effective insulation and efficient heating.

7.3 The following graphic demonstrate the currently failing properties over each of the criterions.

Criterion A Criterion B Criterion C Criterion D


7.4 These results demonstrate that a majority of the failures are due to “old and poor” key and non key

components under criterion B. The following graphic illustrates the particular elements that

contribute to the failures under this specific criterion.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Num

ber Of Props

Wal

ls

Chi

mne

y

Roo

f

Doo

rs

Win

dow

s

Elec

tric

s

Boi

ler

Kitc

hen

Bat

hroo

m

Hea

ting

7.5 This graph clearly demonstrate that failures occur across all of the main components (as would be

expected) The main area of non compliance is attributed electrical systems, with approximately 700

properties being identified by the survey as having old and in poor condition electrical systems. Due

to the age profile of the stock a high failure rate under this heading is not uncommon, and reflect the

view of the council.

7.6 In order to accurately predict the compliance with the government target of “ensuring that all

properties meet the decent homes standard by December 2010” it is necessary to consider the

properties that have the potential between now and 2010, if no investment is made. To accurately

predict the level potentially failing properties it is essential that the age of the components is

recorded at the time of the survey. Generally speaking the original survey data recorded data

relating to whether a component failed or passed the decent home standard but not the age of the

component specifically. Therefore it has not been possible to assess the degree of potentially failing

properties up to 2010.


7.7 It is the intention of the Council that as part of a commitment to carry out ongoing surveys that this

specific date relating to the age of the components will be collect to accurately predict potential

failures in the future.

8.0 SUMMARY 8.1 Through this validation process it has become clear that Harrow Council have adopted a pro-active

approach to the commitment to not only continually collecting condition data relating to the stock,

but also through an up-dating regime, to keep this information current regarding works completed. It

is the intention of the Council to continue this process to provide the business plan with accurate

information identifying expenditure and programmes of work on a yearly cycle.

8.2 No significant concerns were discovered through the validation process to indicate that this process

has not been carried out in a manner appropriate to the objective. However this report has drawn

attention to a number of key points that we believe the Council should address in future surveys to

ensure that the data set held by the Council is more robust. Through the discussions with the

Council and specific information made available to Savills, and referenced to in part 2 of this report,

we believe that the overall costs relating to all cost categories are reflective of the financial

responsibility that will be placed upon the Council over a 30 horizon period.


9.0 PART 3 INVESTMENT SCENARIOS 9.1 The main results highlighted in this report allows for all of the residents improvements, which extend

far beyond the simple replacement of building components when they reach the end of their useful

working lives. Consequently these results can be considered to represent the higher end of the

likely expenditure to maintain and improve the housing stock. In order for the Council and its

residents to consider all of the option appraisal exercise however, there is a need to consider

alternative investment scenarios based on different standards that can be applied to the validation

results.

9.1.1 Harrow Council are continuing to consult heavily with their residents with the aim to ultimately

identifying a ‘Harrow standard’. To assist in this process Savills were asked to produce an

investment scenario illustrating the investment that the housing stock will require to hit the harrow

decent homes standard, and to also carry out all other essential works to ensure that the long term

sustainability of the stock is not effected over the 30 year horizon. Reflecting this Savills have

produced a Harrow standard. The following provides a summary of the methodology applied to the

validation results to produce this standard, which is given in detail in Appendix 5.

9.2 Harrow Standard (decent homes plus landlord essential works)

• All works required to meet the Harrow Decent Homes Standard by 2010 and to maintain the

properties at that Standard thereafter. Whilst also ensuring that all other maintenance

responsibilities considered appropriate to maintain the stock to the Harrow standard are

carried out. It must be emphasised that this is a relatively low standard.

• The work required to meet other minimum statutory obligations of the Council. The Decent

Homes Standard only covers certain elements of a property. The Council has other

obligations that it has to meet e.g. paths and fences are not covered within the Decent

Homes Standard but the Council is clearly obliged to maintain them.

• The assumption is that, wherever possible, the Council will prolong the life of components

as long as it is practical to do so. Once the components fail in their entirety, they will be

replaced.


• Some tenant aspirations work has been included to the stock that relate to the decent

homes standards such as wall and loft insulation. However no other aspirations have been

allowed for over and above replacing current components, e.g no allowance has been made

for environmental improvements, external lighting, CCTV and additional security measures

etc.

• Higher response/void maintenance budget have been adopted under this scenario on the

basis that if components are left to fall into disrepair, there will be an inevitable impact on the

response/void budget.

• Provision for contingent major repairs has been reduced.

9.3 The Next Step

9.3.1 Savills have taken due regard of feedback received through the initial residents forum and their ITA

when compiling these investment scenarios. It is worth pointing out that additional priorities were

highlighted by the residents but are considered by Savills to be management and service issues

which do not impact on this report, and consequently have not been addressed in this report.

Ultimately the Council intends to alter these scenarios to suit additional or changing priorities of the

residents and the Council itself. Once this option is confirmed the information can be passed to the

Councils financial consultants, along with the management and services information, for final

consideration of the stock option appraisal exercise.


Appendices

ORIGINAL SURVEY RESULTS DETAILED ELEMENTAL BREAKDOWN

APPENDIX 1


Appendices

ORIGINAL SCHEDULE OF RATES AND LIFE CYCLES

APPENDIX 2


REVISED SCHEDULE OF RATE AND LIFE CYCLES

APPENDIX 3


REVISED DETAILED ELEMENTAL BREAKDOWN

APPENDIX 4


INVESTMENT SCENARIOS

APPENDIX 5

harrow council stock condition survey validation june 2005

Documents