harvard university, july 26 th , 2012
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Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany Dr. Jörg Dräger. Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012. The „PISA shock “ of 2001 made education an issue of national interest and triggered major policy changes. PISA shock 2001. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger
Harvard University, July 26th, 2012
The „PISA shock“ of 2001 made education an issue of national interest and triggered major policy changes
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 2
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
PISA ended a period of complacency and self-confidencein Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Seite 3
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
tical
atte
ntio
nPu
blic
and
pol
i-
Ideology instead of accountability: German educational policy has a difficult history with transparency
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 4
Is the new age of trans-
parencyreally
sustainable?
1960-
1970
1970 -
2000
2000-
2010/12
Two international comparative studies on student achievements show very problematic results for
Germany. As a reaction, politics quits such studies.
30 year of ideology (and no facts) in education: excellence vs. equity,
one-tiered vs. multi-tiered school system, …
PISA ends a period of ideology and complacency,followed by an empirical and pragmatic approach
to educational reforms
Positive reviews: PISA has done more for education in Germany than 30 years of ideological discussions before
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 5
„PISA stopped the complacency and self-confidence, with which Germany had looked at its education system for too long.“
Der SPIEGEL, 2010
„Since PISA, education is no hullabaloo anymore.“ Baumert, 2011
„Germany has become a role model for cooperation between academia and politics.“
Klieme et al., 2010
Increasing challenges for education in Germany: Changes in society lead to an unprecedented classroom diversity
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 6
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
Demographics, migration and parents put increasing challenges on the German education system
Demographics: number of students (and schools) heavily shrinks
Migration: Germany becomes (much more) diverse
Parental will: parents want all children to go to grammar
school
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Growing diversity means additional reform pressure for the German education system
Page 7
Relative change in numbers of 10- to 15-year-old children (2009 to 2025)
legend: changes in percent
Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, www.wegweiser-kommune.de
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 8
Demographics: Number of students shrinks by 15% – in some West German regions even by up to 40%
School mergers
–classroom diversity is increasing
über 25 Jahre 0-5 Jahre
34 %
16 %
+ 112%
Source: Mikrozensus 2007
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Germany: share of population with migration background
Frankfurt: almost three out of four newborns with migration backgrund
Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, Mikrozensus
Migration: Germany is today an immigration country – one third of the youngest with migration background
Page 9
Classroom diversity is increasing
72%
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 10
Parental will: The grammar school (Gymnasium) becomes the comprehensive school of the middle class
students at grammar schools as share of all students in class 8 (in percent)
Local grammar
school share of up to 80%
–classroom diversity is increasing
The PISA shock has opened a window for some major structural policy reforms in Germany over the last decade
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 11
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
ECEC, full-day schools, inclusion, two-tier schooling: Germany has started a wide ranging reform
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 12
Two-tiered schooling as a standard
Structural changes in
German education
Expanding full-day schooling Commitment to inclusive education
Expanding Early Childhood Education
2001
58 %
2011
88 %
Expanding quality Early Childhood Education: Massive in-vestments and new legal entitlement, but a long way to go
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 13
Dynamic expansion, but legal right for child daycare (under 3 ys.) in
2013 very difficult to meet (demand 50%, today‘s supply 25%)
Source: Mikrozensus 2001, Bertelsmann Stiftung: Länderreport Frühkindliche Bildungssysteme 2011
under-three-year olds (2001-2011): Institutional daycare has tripled
Better Quality (2006-2011):child-staff ratio down to 4.7 from 6.5
2001
58 %
2011
88 %
three-year olds in daycare (Germany)
Two-tiered schooling as a standard: Germany‘s traditional multi-tiered schooling system is being dissolved
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 14
Decline of Hauptschulen leads to a new system of Gymnasium (grammar school, 12 years) and
one additional type of secondary school (13 years).
%
Pupils at Hauptschulen (8th grade)
Pupils allowed tostudy at HEI
Educational expansion in Germany
Development 1960-2010
Hauptschule: 72 % to 18 %
Access to Higher Education: 6 % to 48 %
Expanding full-day schooling: Very dynamic expansion,but supply still lags far behind actual demand
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 15
numbers in percent
growth rate
Share of all pupils in full-day schoolingAttendance rate
full-day schooling
Germany: 28 %
Sweden: 100 %
USA: 100 %
Canada: 100 %
Dynamic expansion with huge regional disparities,
but Germany is still far behind international
standards and demand
Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2012
Commitment to inclusive education: About half a millionchildren with special needs may attend regular schooling
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 16
On average two special need children per regular class
– Need for new didactics
(individual support)Implementing UN convention leads to dissolution of special needs schooling in Germany
485.418 special needs pupils
3.306 special need schools
9 types of special support
Toda
yTo
mor
row
New transparency and empiricism: The PISA shock triggered an unseen collaboration of politics and academia
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 17
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
PISA has brought standards and accountability into German education
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 18
National competence standards (since 2004)
Output-oriented competence standards for grades 4, 9 and 10
developed by academia,enacted by politics
institutionalized in 2010
National education report (since 2006)
Bi-yearly indicator-based monitoring by an expert consortium of indepen-
dent academics and commissioned by politics
PISA follow up
Regular participation in international study, but
since 2006 no intra-German comparison anymore (due to self control of the Länder)
Regulated transparency: Politics tends to keep data under control
Looking at the results: Germany has experienced a decade of impressive educational improvements
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 19
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
Germany is not Germany: Average science performanceof the 16 German Länder differs by nearly 60 points
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 20
Average science competence gap of two school years between Saxony and Bremen
Improvements in all dimensions: Germany has reached the OECD average in reading, exceeded in maths and science
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 21
Significant improvements in all skills dimensions over the last decade:
13 points in reading, 23 points in maths and science (=one school year)
Source: PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends, simplified illustration
Reading Mathematics Science
2000
2009OECD
Average
BelowAverage
AboveAverage
2000
2009
2000
2009
Germany‘s success story stems from closing the gap – but unfortunately at the cost of the best
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 22
Disparities have decreased, but are still significant –Remarkable improvements from the bottom, stagnancy at the top
impr
ovem
ent f
rom
200
0 to
200
6 (P
ISA
poin
ts)
reading skills 2000 (PISA points)
!
Formerly weak Länder succeed Overall skills disparities decrease
PISA 2009 Results: Learning TrendsSource: Wössmann, 2012
reading skills
Social dependency has significantly decreased – Germany‘s socio-economic gradient now at OECD average
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 23
Coming from lag-end in 2000, Germany‘s social-economic gradient has now reached OECD average
social dependency
Migration(reading competence 2000-2009):
students with migration background (+27 points) have made up for one
school year (others: +4)
Family background (reading competence 2000-2009):
working-class children have significantly
improved, while upper social class perfor-mance decreased
Source: Klieme et al., 2010
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Share of students below minimum reading skills (PISA)
Source: PISA 2000 and 2009
Page 24
Germany USA Canada Finland Korea0
5
10
15
20
25 22.6
17.9
9.6
7.05.8
18.5 17.6
10.3
8.1
5.8
2000 2009
perc
ent
But the most serious problem is still to be solved: One out of five children is lost to inadequate education in Germany
Significant progress, but nearly one in five teenagers still cannot properly read (focus: boys with migration
background)
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich
Page 25
Conclusion: Though it was not planned, Germany hasmoved piece by piece towards a whole-system reform
PISA triggered (new) transparency
More Lear-ning Time (ECEC + full-day school)
Focus on outcome/
performance
Inclu-sive edu-
cation
Individualized support for ALL children
Strong public and political attention
2-tiered school
structure
Þ improved structures & opportunities
Piece by piece towards a whole-system reform
Þ capacity building
Þ standards&
autonomy
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich
Page 26
Fear: Losing transparency again would endanger the whole system’s stability
Less Transparency
More Learning
Time (ECEC + full-day)Focus on
outcome/
performance
Inclu-sive edu-
cation
Individualized support for ALL children
Decreasing public and political attention
2-tiered school structure
Þ Danger of wasted money (expensive
unmeasured measures)
Well-meant, but not well-
done reform pieces
Þ Danger of arbitrariness
Dangerous self-control of the Länder
• most-problematic areas not measured (Haupt-schulen, special need schools)
• no comparison between Länder anymore (exit from PISA-E)
• scientists without access to PISA data
Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger
Harvard University, July 26th, 2012