heritage's obamacare in pictures
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Obamacare in PicturesVisualizing the E�ects of the Patient Protection and A�ordable Care Act
Kathryn NixJohn W. FlemingSpring 2012
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, O ce of the Actuary, January 2012 report.
Obamacare dumps millions into Medicaid and creates new federal subsidies for government-approved coverage. As a result, by the end of the decade most Americans will receive health coverage through government programs.
Obamacare expands dependence on government health care
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
Health Care Enrollment in 2020
Exchange Subsidies:
7.3%
Medicare:18.3%
Medicaid and CHIP:
25.1%
Other49.3%
Government50.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Millions remain uninsured under ObamacarePresident Obama promised universal coverage under his health care overhaul. However, even with Obamacare, millions of Americans will remain uninsured. Those who do gain coverage will do so primarily through government exchanges or Medicaid.
Source: Congressional Budget O�ce, March 2012 report.
Note: Figures have been rounded.
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
Health Coverage, With and Without Obamacare (2016)
MEDICAID
(+17million)
32million
49million
GOVERNMENT EXCHANGES
n/a
(+20million)
20million
WithoutObamacare
WithObamacare
WithoutObamacare
WithObamacare
WithoutObamacare
WithObamacare
UNINSURED
56million
26million
(–30million)
If you like your health care, can you really keep it?President Obama promised reform would not a�ect existing coverage. While it remains uncertain exactly how many Americans will lose employer-sponsored plans under Obamacare, studies show it will be millions.
Sources: Congressional Budget O�ce, March 2010; CMS O�ce of the Actuary, April 2010; The Lewin Group, June 2010; and the American Action Forum, May 2010.
Estimated Loss of Employer Coverage After Full Implementation
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
CMS O�ce of the Actuary
14million
Congressional Budget O�ce 11 million
The Lewin Group
17.2 million
American Action Forum
35 million
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust, Employer Health Benefits 2011 Annual Survey.
President Obama promised premiums would fall under his health law, but Americans continue to pay more every year. In fact, Obamacare is responsible for a portion of the increase in cost.
Premiums continue to rise under Obamacare
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
Average Annual Cost of Employer-Based Health Insurance
Family Policy20112010 20112010
Individual Policy
$15,073$13,770
+9.5%
+7.5%
$5,429$5,049
States: Obamacare is unconstitutionalTwenty-eight states have filed suits against the individual mandate and the Medicaid expansion. The issue will be settled by the Supreme Court in 2012.
Source: Independent Women’s Forum, healthcarelawsuits.org.
States joining Florida v. Dept. of Health and Human Services suitStates filingsuits separately
WY
WV
WI
WAVT
VA
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RIPA
OR
OK
OH
NY
NV
NM
NJ
NH
NE
ND
NC
MT
MS
MO
MN
MI
ME
MDDC
MA
LA
KYKS
INIL
ID
IA
HI
GA
FL
DE
CT
COCA
AZAR
AK
AL
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
A Medicaid monsterObamacare increases coverage by adding millions of Americans to the low-quality, low-access Medicaid program, requiring billions of dollars from state budgets.
Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Kaiser Family Foundation’s statehealthfacts.org.
Increase in Medicaid Population Under Obamacare by 2014
32.3%
23.9%
17.7%
22.8% 11.2%
40.7%34.5%
56.7%
25.1%
28%
36.1%
21.8%
17.6%
49.5%
30.7%
24.7%
17.3%
65.6%
34.5%
42.8%
24.3%
36.1%
32.5%
36.8%
43.4%
36.3%
30.8%
21.1%
23.5%
12.1%
30.9%13.3%
8.7%
29.5%
31.4%39.6%
25.7%24.7%
35.8%
22.3%
13.1%U.S. total:
30.4%
41.1%
42.6%
18.1%
21.0%
44.2%30%
36.4% 28.3%
34.3%
26.2%
WY
WV
WI
WA VT
VA
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RIPA
OR
OK
OH
NY
NV
NM
NJ
NH
NE
ND
NC
MT
MS
MO
MN
MI
ME
MDDC
MA
LA
KYKS
INIL
ID
IA
HI
GA
FL
DE
CT
COCA
AZ AR
AK
AL
0% to 20%20.1% to 30%30.1% to 40%40.1% to 70%
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
Medicaid expansion burdens state budgetsThe cost of Obamacare’s huge Medicaid expansion will burden both federal and state governments, and states are already struggling to a�ord the program.
Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Kaiser Family Foundation’s statehealthfacts.org.
Estimated State Costs for Medicaid Expansion, 2014-2020 (millions)
$47
$166
$351
$509 $32
$754$197
$4,229
$674
$60
$523
$82
$841
$443
$389
$988
$1,884
$339
$306
$919
$72
$150
$41
$1,084
$89
$471
$524
$321
$835
$68
$515
$235
$609
$508$246
$513$1,336
$155
$188
$65U.S. total:
$33.48 billion
$1,314
$2,439
$72
$229
$533$5,419
$851 $330
$71
$425
WY
WV
WI
WA VT
VAUT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RI
PA
OR
OK
OH
NY
NV
NM
NJ
NH
NE
ND
NC
MT
MS
MO
MN
MI
ME
MD$38DC
MA
LA
KYKS
INIL
ID
IA
HI
GA
FL
DE
CT
COCA
AZ AR
AK
AL
$30–$99$100–$499$500–$999$1,000–$1,999$2,000–$5,500
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
–1,000,000
–800,000
–600,000
–400,000
–200,000
0
+200,000
+400,000
+600,000
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment Survey/Haver Analytics.
Month-to-Month Net Change in Private-Sector Jobs
Jan.2009
Jan.2010
Between the recession’s low point in January 2009 and April 2010, net private-sector job growth improved at a rate of 67,000 jobs per month. After Obama signed his health care legislation into law at the end of March 2010, the improvement stalled. Over the next two years private-sector job growth improved at a rate of just 4,600 jobs per month.
Did Obamacare slow private-sector recovery?
Jan.2011
Jan.2012
TrendActual
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
BEFORE OBAMACAREMonthly improvement
in job-growth rates:+67,000 jobs/month
AFTER OBAMACAREMonthly improvement
in job-growth rates:+4,600 jobs/month
Taxed Enough Already? Just wait until Obamacare kicks inTo pay for generous subsidies to purchase health insurance, a huge expansion of Medicaid, and other new spending, Obamacare raises taxes and adds 17 new taxes or penalties that will a�ect all Americans.
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Joint Committee on Taxation, March 2010 report. heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
Increase in Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) tax and extension to investment income for high-income earners
Revenue from 8 other taxes
Individual and Employer Mandate penaltiesHealth insurance premium tax
Excise tax on “Cadillac” employer health plans
Fee on pharmaceutical companiesNew restrictions on HSA, FSA plansExcise tax on medical devices
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
million
Total Annual Costs of Obamacare
Taxes, 2010–2019:$502 BILLION
Obamacare’s bundle of budget gimmicks
When Obamacare was enacted, its proponents said it would reduce the deficit by $143 billion in its first decade …
… but after accounting for these budget gimmicks, the health law actually adds $698 billion to the deficit.
Source: Senate Budget Committee.
–$143billion
heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures
Double-counted
Medicare savings
+$400billion
Unpaid-for “doc fix”
+$208billion
Unaccounted-for cost of
implementation
+$115billion
Revenue from the
failed CLASS
program
+$70billion
Double-counted savings
from Social Security payroll taxes
+$29billion
Unrelated student
loan savings
+$19billion
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