hidrodiplomacy and environmental security of transboundary waters

Hidrodiplomacy and Environmental

Security of Transboundary Waters

SULTAN ERBAŞ

International Relations

1658707

Do you agree the statement that Kazakhstan’s Water Policies are more environmet-friendly than Uzbekistan’s ones?

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Literature Review

• After independence , the Central Asian States agreed to continue with the water allocation principles set during the Soviet Union. However, Dukhovny and Sokolov (2003, p. 27) argue «there is clearly no way to preserve the desired «status quo» of former water allocation and use because of emerging geopolitical and economic diffrences in development among Central Asian countries.»

• Reduction of funding for operation and maintenance • This has led to a deterioration of the infrastructure and to a

decrease in water management control• It would suggest that more water is used in agriculture

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Wegerich, K. (2011). Water resources in Central Asia: regional stability or patchy make-up? Central Asian Survey, 275-290.

Literature Review

• According to Conca (2006: 27)critically refers to as a regime concept of natural resource governance, dominated by norm of authority, territoriality and knowledge(scientific rationality)

• On the other hand, risk-based governance decenters state authority, accepts the transnational features of social life, respect to shared natural resources, allows for experimentation as a source of legitimate knowledge.

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Rosario, T. C.-d. (2009). Risky riparianism: cooperative water governance in Central Asia . AustralianJournal of International Affairs , 405.

Literature ReviewMultidimensional and interest-seeking

Multinational and common profit

• Uzbek Water Policies are multidimensional and effective on water security issues just like the Rogun project

• Uzbek Government is very critical of the Rogun Dam (Spoor and Krutov 2003), because it would put it(Tajikistan) firmly in control of the river(ICG 2002, p. 23) According to Libert et al. (2008, p. 15) the World Bank recently agreed to allocate some funding for the project.

• As a countermove, Uzbekistan recently ratified the two international conventions on Transboundary water.

• Even if Tajikistan can secure investment for Rogun, still problem with selling hydropower. Because Central Asia’s current electricity energy grid is centered on Tashkent. Recently Uzbekistan withdrew from the joint energy grid.

• On the other hand, Kazakhstan only rely on the agreements but it would not bring any result

• According to Ryabtsev(2008, p. 2): «The bilateral Protocol does not guarantee for Kazakhstan a water supply over the Syrdarya river up to the Shardara reservoir(because the water) allotted for Kazakhstan, is partly used in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

• However, Ferghana ru (31 May 2010, 1 June 2010) reports that Kazakhstan fulfils its obligation to Tajikistan but that Uzbekistan did not in 2008 or 2009 and is late for 2010 as well.(signed between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic, and between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.»

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Wegerich, K. (2011). Water resources in Central Asia: regional stability or patchy make-up? Central AsianSurvey, 275-290.

Literature Review

• According to Khankhasayev and Leitman (2008) «the Aral Sea environmental disaster is reputed to be one of the biggest man-made ecological disasters in the region and perhaps the world.»

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Rosario, T. C.-d. (2009). Risky riparianism: cooperative water governance in Central Asia . Australian Journal of International Affairs , 405.

Background

• The downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) receive 73 percent of total withdrawals from Aral Sea basin, despite their small contribution to water supplies in region.

• In contrast, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which both contribute almost 70 percent of all water supplies, receive only 0.4 percent and 11 percent respectively(Horsman 2001: 71).

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Rosario, T. C.-d. (2009). Risky riparianism: cooperative water governance in Central Asia . AustralianJournal of International Affairs , 405.

Background

• Demand for water in Central Asia has been dominated by needs of agriculture (more than 90% of total use)

• Agriculture , major employer of the region’sworkforce, producing a large % of each countries GDP

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Background

• In the 1960s, the Soviet Union centralized the use and exploitation of the Aral Sea through the Aral Sea Plan

• It converted the region into a «cotton belt»

• Soviet Policy of concentrating cotton production in Uzbekistan effectively enshrined highly unequal water use among the riparian republics

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Rosario, T. C.-d. (2009). Risky riparianism: cooperative water governance in Central Asia . Australian Journal of International Affairs , 405.

Background

• Irrigation projects diverted water flows and shrunk the two rivers.

• Irrigation purposes has caused a drastic reductionon the volume of water in the Aral Sea by as much as 75 percent.

• Its shoreline has reportedly retreated by more than 120 km(Gungoren and Regallet 1998: 19).

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Rosario, T. C.-d. (2009). Risky riparianism: cooperative water governance in Central Asia . Australian Journalof International Affairs , 405.

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McKinney, D. C. (2003). Cooperative Management of Transboundary Water Resources in Central Asia. In D. B. T.Sabonis-Helf, In the Tracks of Tamerlane-Central Asia’s Path into the 21st Century (p. 191). National Defense University Press.

The increase in irrigated lane and the corresponding diminished flow. In addition to the dwindling flow, inefficient irrigation systems and mismanagement of irrigation water diversions have resulted in elevated water and soil salinity levels, widespread environmental degradation, and diminished agricultural productivity.

Background

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(2004). Water Resources of Kazakhstan in the new millenium . Almaty: UNDP.

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(2003). Regional Workshop on Development of eco Efficent Water Infrastructure in Asia and Pasific. Seul: Resources, Republic of Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture and Water.

Uzbekistan

Yes, I agree the statement that Kazakhstan’s water policy is more environmental-friendly than Uzbekistan’s water policy

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Irrigation Water Use

• On approach to reduce irrigation water use significantly would include conversion of more of the irrigated area to less water-intensive crops(e.g. Substituting soybeans, fruits and vegetables for cotton and rice), and reducing the irrigated area(Micklin 2000, pp. 24-42)

• But, two primary irrigation nations (Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) are intent on retaining cotton as a major crop, particularly its key role in earning foreign currency.

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Micklin, P. (2010). The past, present, and future Aral Sea. Lakes and Reservoirs: Research and Management, 193-213.

Irrigation Water Use

• Also, reduction of irrigated area are unlikely to occur in near- to mid-term future.

• Except Kazakhstan, all the former Soviet republics intend to expand irrigation, mainly to meet food needs for a «growing population».

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17Uzbekistan’s growing population

(2003). Regional Workshop on Development of eco Efficent Water Infrastructure in Asia and Pasific. Seul: Resources, Republic of Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture and Water.

Environment

• Uzbekistan can ensure water policies toward other riparians as reason for environmental security. But it is highly related with increase in national interests rather than saving environment.

• Even though Schrader (2008) argues that the Yavan Dam would not have any impact on Uzbekistan, the news agency Ferghana.ru (15 August 2008) states that «after neighboring Uzbekistan expressed concerns over ecology and possible future lack of water for irrigation, China quit the project».

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Environment

• The Government of Kazakhstan and the WB subsequently funded construction of an engineering sound 13 km earthen dike with a concrete outflow control structure, including gates that could be raised and lowered, to regulate the flow from the Small to Large Aral Seas(Micklin 2007).

• Completed in August 2005• Part of a larger US$ 85 million project that also included

«hydraulic infrastructure improvements along the Syr Dar’ya to increase flow into the Small Aral Sea

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Environment

Due to constructions toward Syr Dar’ya and Small Aral Sea , and heavier than expected winter water inflows into the Small Aral Sea, the water level rose much more rapidly than expected, reaching design level (42 m asl) by March 2006, and allowing renewed outflows to the Large Aral Sea. The Level of the Small Aral has been maintained at a minimum of 42 m since that time, but sometimes rises to higher levels.


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Micklin, P. (2010). The past, present, and future Aral Sea. Lakesand Reservoirs: Research and Management, 193-213.

Ecology

• Kambala( or Black Sea flounder (Platichthys flesus lulscus) disappeared from the Large(southern) Sea in 2003, however, as its salinity increased to more than 70 g L-1

• On the other hand, in Small Lake the average salinity to 10-14 g L-1, which has facilitated the return and flourishing of indigenous species, such as the sudak or pike-perch (Lucioperca lucioperca) and sazan (Cyprinus carpio), a type of carp.

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Micklin, P. (2010). The past, present, and future Aral Sea. Lakes and Reservoirs: Research andManagement, 193-213.

Ecology

• Moreover, The previous rich, diverse ecosystem of the extensive Amu Dar’ya delta, located in the Karakalpak Republic of Uzbekistan, have suffered considerable harm, while the Syr Dar’ya delta in Kazakhstan has ensured lesser.

• Reduced river flows, construction of upstream storage reservoirs as well as declining ground water levels caused by the falling water level of the Aral Sea, have caused spreading and intensifying desertification

• Mineral salts have accumulated on the land surface , forming solonchak (salt pans) where practically nothing will grow.

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Ecology

• A UNESCO (2000, pp. 44-46) report notes that, of the 282 bird species formerly observed in the Amu Dar’ya wetlands, -30 species have disappeared and some 88 species are listed as rare.

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Food Supply

• The commercial fishing industries developed by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the first half of the 20th Century(maximum catch reached 44.000 tonnes in 1958) ended in the early 1980s with the indigenous species that provided the basis for the fishery disappearing because of increasing salinity and loss of shallow spawning and feeding areas.

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Food Supply• Kazakhstan’s water level stabilization project has

reinvigorated the fishery in the Small Aral. The total fish catch was only 200 metric tonnes in 2004, but had risen to 2000 metric tonnes by 2007 (Micklin and Aladin 2008)

• Also, the fish(Kambala or Black Sea flounder) flourished in the Small Aral, providing a sizable non-commercial catch, which was and important protein source for local settlements(Micklin and Aladin 2008)

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Health

• The population living around the Aral Sea suffers acute health problems.

• Consequences of lake recession, heavy use of toxic chemicals in irrigated agriculture, poor medical care and diets, health conditions in the Karakalpak Republic in Uzbekistan are undoubtedly the worst in the Aral Basin.

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Health

• Surveys on Karakalpak Republic health condition conducted in the mid- to late 1980s illustrated that rates of diseases such as cancer of the oesophagus, tuberculosis, various intestinal disorders and kidney ailments had grown significantly compared with a decade earlier (Anokhin et al. 1991).

• Also, the infant mortality rate rose from an average of 45/1000 live births in 1965, to 72 in 1986. However US Intenational donors, Uzbek government and NGOs have efforts to improve health and medical conditions, everall health picture has not improved significantly from Soviet times.

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Finance of water policies

• Although the ICWC budget is confirmed by all member countries each year, only Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have met their obligations for operation and maintenance works.

• Only Uzbekistan has met the obligation for research, with a small contribution from others.

• But, it is already not enough to make a difference in the region.

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McKinney, D. C. (2003). Cooperative Management of Transboundary Water Resources in Central Asia. In D. B. T.Sabonis-Helf, In the Tracks of Tamerlane-Central Asia’s Path into the 21st Century (p. 191). National Defense University Press.

Finance of water policies

• In fact, although attempts are underway to implement improvement measures, the comprehensive programme needed would be extremely costly.

• Based on studies done by the World Bank in the mid- and late 1990s, a complete renovation of irrigation syastems on 5.4 million ha could resulted in a net water savings of 12 km3 year-1 , but would cost an estimated US$ 16 billion.(Micklin 2000, p.40)

• It estimated cost would certainly be substantially higher today.• So, these estimated monetary figures are far beyond the willingness

and the ability, of the basin states to pay, even with ajor aid from international donors.

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References• (2003). Regional Workshop on Development of eco Efficent Water

Infrastructure in Asia and Pasific. Seul: Resources, Republic of Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture and Water.

• (2004). Water Resources of Kazakhstan in the new millenium . Almaty: UNDP.

• McKinney, D. C. (2003). Cooperative Management of Transboundary Water Resources in Central Asia. In D. B. T.Sabonis-Helf, In the Tracks of Tamerlane-Central Asia’s Path into the 21st Century (p. 191). National Defense University Press.

• Micklin, P. (2010). The past, present, and future Aral Sea. Lakes andReservoirs: Research and Management, 193-213.

• Rosario, T. C.-d. (2009). Risky riparianism: cooperative water governance in Central Asia . Australian Journal of International Affairs , 405.

• Wegerich, K. (2011). Water resources in Central Asia: regional stability or patchy make-up? Central Asian Survey, 275-290.

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