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Q&A roadshow 2016 June 2016 | For professional advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients High total returns and attractive income from bonds Michael Scott | Portfolio Manager #QAroadshow2016

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Page 1: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Q&A roadshow 2016

June 2016 | For professional advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients

High total returns

and attractive income

from bonds

Michael Scott | Portfolio Manager

#QAroadshow2016

Page 2: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Questions

Why is high yield a strategic opportunity?

What is your outlook for high yield?

What opportunities do you see currently and going forward?

1

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Page 3: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Why is high yield a

strategic

opportunity?

Page 4: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

European HY – a natural income generating asset class Generating high income and low volatility returns

3

Source: Schroders, Bloomberg as at 29 April 2016. Cash, gilts, stock yields, fund are gross of fees. Yield on the Fund is effective yield. The Fund is Schroder Monthly High Income Fund. RPI is

UKRPYOY, Cash is 1 Month GBP LIBOR (BP0001M Index), Gilts are 10 Year UK Government Bond (GUKG10 Index), Stocks are FTSE All Share (ASX Index) *European High yield = LF88TREU

Index, European Equities = SX5E Index, UK Equities = ASX Index, European Government = QW1A Index, EM Local Currency Bonds = JGENVUUG Index.

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0.5

1.6

4.2

7.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Cash Gilts Stocks Fund

RPI 1.6 %

Asset Class Performance Risk stats

1 y

ear

3 y

ear

(p

.a.)

5 y

ear

(p

.a.)

10

ye

ar (

p.a

.)

Max

dra

wd

ow

n (

5

yr)

Shar

pe

(5

yr)

Re

turn

Vo

l (9

0

day

s)

European HY

-1.50% 5.50% 7.40% 7.80% -14.6 0.9 5.0

European Equities

-16.20% 3.70% 0.10% -2.30% -30.4 0.3 18.0

UK Equities -9.00% 0.30% 1.60% 1.10% -19.8 0.4 18.7

EUR Govt. 1.10% 5.30% 6.70% 5.20% -6.3 1.4 3.3

EM Debt (Local)

-2.00% -7.00% -2.40% 4.90% -32.7 -0.1 12.3

Yield %

Page 5: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Real GDP Growth of +1-2%: “sweet spot” for Credit

Average quarterly total return at various ranges of real GDP growth

Slow growth and low inflation is the “sweet spot” for high yield If we avoid recession, high yield should remain solid

4

Data reflect the 111 quarter period of the modern HY era from 3Q 1988 to 3Q 2015. Sources for total returns of asset classes under different speeds of economic growth: BofA ML US High Yield Index

(H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500 returns, assuming reinvestment of dividends in the index.

US Real GDP data reflect the official figures from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis of the quarter-over-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of real chain-weighted GDP. Of the 111

quarterly observations from 3Q 1988 to 3Q 2012, there were 22 quarters of real GDP growth less than +1%, 18 quarters of growth between +1% and +2%, and 21 quarters of growth in excess of +2%

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Page 6: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Consistent and high level of income High income and low volatility returns – it's what bonds were made for

5

Source: Morningstar; Bloomberg as at 29 February 2016. Dividend yield is the most recently announced gross dividend, annualised on the dividend frequency unique to the fund, then divided by the

current market price. Fund uses effective yield. Abnormal dividends are not included in this yield calculation. Maximum drawdown percentage is in absolute terms and is the largest drop from a peak

to a bottom in a sub-period over the time period. Dividend yield and maximum draw-downs are average figures calculated across the peer group. Peer Groups: IMA £ High Yield; UK Equity Income;

UK Equity and Bond Income; Morningstar EAA OE Global Bond

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%

Page 7: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

What is your outlook

for high yield?

Page 8: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Outlook for high yield

Macro

Global growth is slowing in both EM and DM but we don’t expect a recession

Low inflation is supportive for the consumer, and for income

Fundamental

European companies remain ‘bondholder friendly’ and focused on preserving cash

Default trends picking up but they are concentrated to specific sectors and issuers

Technicals

Very low supply and attractive valuations are very supportive of high yield

Pockets of volatility fuelled by short-term sentiment create great opportunities

7

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Page 9: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Eurozone Solid growth in Germany and Spain; Italy looks increasingly vulnerable

8

Source: Bloomberg, Schroders, as at June 2016

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Page 10: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

High Yield Net Leverage

9

Source: Morgan Stanley, Dec 2015; Leverage is Net Debt / EBITDA

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2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

Mar 03 Jan 04 Nov 04 Sep 05 Jul 06 May 07 Mar 08 Jan 09 Nov 09 Sep 10 Jul 11 May 12 Mar 13 Jan 14 Nov 14 Sep 15

US EU

Page 11: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Technicals Positive for the European high yield market

10

Sources: Morgan Stanley as of May 2016

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European High Yield net supply by calendar year

Page 12: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Moody’s default rate expectations in Europe High yield spreads by region

Spreads are attractive given fundamentals and valuations

11

Source: Moody’s; Bloomberg as at 31 January 2016. Forecast risk warning: Please refer to the important information slide at the end of this presentation.

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While default risk expectations increased in problematic areas (US Energy and Metals & Mining in particular)…

… prospects for Pan European high yield remains solid and now even more attractively priced!

The current premiums available are ample compensation for the interest and credit risk if one can pick the right bonds!

Page 13: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

What opportunities

do you see currently

and going forward?

Page 14: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Risks and opportunities

Brexit and other political risks

Brexit is still not likely however it is almost fully priced into sterling banks and credit now

Potential volatility from upcoming elections, separatist movements and right wing parties

ECB buying corporate bonds

Supportive on the short term but may have unintended consequences on the long term

Some high yield BBs will be eligible

Interest rates

No hikes on the horizon in Europe for a long time

The Fed may be close to hiking again

13

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Page 15: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

RBS 7.64% 03/29/49 Callable Allied Irish 4.125% 11/26/25 Unicredit 9.375% 07/29/49 Callable

Opportunities Attractive compensation in selective financials

14

Source: Bloomberg as at 31 March 2016. Tickers: RBS 7.64 03/29/49 Corp; AIB 4 ⅛ 11/26/25 Corp; UCGIM 9 ⅜ 07/29/49 Corp. Based on weekly prices.

Stocks shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell

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Entry level

@ 103c Entry level

@ 88c Entry level

@ 97.5c

Page 16: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Gaz Capital 8.625% 04/29/2034 YPF Sociedad Anonima 8.5% 07/28/2025

Opportunities Some out of favour issuers look very interesting after recent developments

15

Source: Bloomberg as at 31 March 2016. Tickers GAZPRU 8 ⅝ 04/28/34 Corp; YPFDAR 8 ½ 07/28/25 Corp. Based on weekly prices.

Stocks shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell

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Entry

level @

117c

Entry level

@ 96.50c

Page 17: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

Schroder Monthly High Income Fund A strategic and tactical investment opportunity for 2016

THEMES

BASED Investment style

16

UNCONSTRAINED high conviction idea

*Only funds with Sterling as the base currency are included. ** Michael Scott became lead portfolio manager on July 1st 2012. Inception date: 14 February 2000. Performance Source: Morningstar, bid to bid, net income

reinvested, Basic Rt Tx, GBP. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The value of an investment may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.

Aims for equity-like returns for bond-like risk

RESEARCH focused stock selection

1st Quartile 1st Quartile 1st Quartile 1st Quartile

2.9% 3.6%

6.2% 8.9%

1.5%

-0.4%

2.6% 5.1%

1.4% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8%

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

6 Months 1 Year 3 Years Since July 2012**Schroder Monthly High Income Acc £ High Yield Relative performance

Relative Fund performance vs. IMA £ High Yield Sector*

Page 18: High total returns and attractive income from bonds · (H0A0), the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Corporate Index (C5A0), and the BofA ML 1-10 Year US Treasury Index (G5O2); Bloomberg for S&P500

For professional advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get

back the amount originally invested. Schroders has expressed its own views and these may change.

The data contained in this document has been sourced by Schroders and should be independently verified before further publication or use. This presentation is intended to be for

information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial

instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be

reliable but Schroder Unit Trusts Limited (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or

restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Reliance

should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.

The forecasts included in this document should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions

which may change. We accept no responsibility for any errors of fact or opinion and assume no obligation to provide you with any changes to our assumptions or forecasts. Forecasts and

assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors.

As a result of the fees being charged to capital, the distributable income of the fund may be higher but there is the potential that performance or capital value may be eroded. The fund

invests in higher-yielding, or non-investment grade, bonds. The risk of the issuer defaulting on the capital repayment is higher than with investment grade bonds.

Issued in June 2016 by Schroder Unit Trusts Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registered No: 4191730 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct

Authority. UK10799

Important information

17

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