Highlights of iNEMI 2013 Technology

Roadmaps – A Look at 2015 Cycle

Chuck Richardson, iNEMI

2014 IPC APEX EXPO

March 26, 2014

Mandalay Bay Hotel,

Las Vegas, NV

Topics • iNEMI Introduction

• Roadmap Process 2015 / Changes From 2013

• 2013 Roadmap Statistics

• Situation Analysis

• Technology Needs

• Strategic Concerns

• Paradigm Shifts

• Summary/Next Steps 2

About iNEMI

International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an industry-led consortium of 110 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations, government agencies and

universities. A Non Profit Fully Funded by Member Dues; In Operation Since 1994. Visit us at www.inemi.org

5 Key Deliverables:

• Technology Roadmaps

• Collaborative Deployment Projects

• Research Priorities Document

• Proactive Forums

• Position Papers

Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics

Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.

Supplier Members – PWB Supply Chain

Roadmap Process & Scope

2013 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

Emulator Characteristics

Consumer / Portable

Produced in high volumes, cost is the primary driver,

hand held battery powered products are also driven by

size and weight reduction

Office Driven by the need for maximum performance over a

wide range of cost targets

Automotive Products Products that must operate in an automotive

environment

High-End Systems

(The Cloud)

Products that serve the high performance

computing/storage markets including networking,

datacom and telecom and cover a wide range of cost

and performance targets

Medical Products Products that must operate with high reliability and, in

some cases, support life critical applications

Aerospace / Defense Products that must operate reliably in extreme

environments 9

2015 Product Emulator Descriptions

Emulator Characteristics

Wireless / Portable

Produced in high volumes, cost is a primary driver, hand

held battery powered products are also driven by

features, size, weight reduction and battery life

Office / Consumer Systems Driven by the need for maximum performance and

lowest cost

Automotive Products Products that must operate in an automotive environment

High-End Systems

Products that serve the high end computing, networking,

datacom and telecom markets and cover a wide range of

cost and performance targets

Medical Products Products that must operate with high reliability and, in

some cases, support life critical applications

Aerospace / Defense Products that must operate reliably in extreme

environments

10

Roadmap Development

Product Emulator Groups TWGs

Medical Products

Automotive

Defense and Aerospace

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Example Product Emulator Chapter Content Portable/Consumer

Contents

Consumer / Portable Product Sector .......................................................................................... 1

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3

Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4

Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 11

Critical Issues (Infrastructure) .............................................................................................. 16

Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends ............................................................... 18

Recommendations on Priorities and Alternative Technologies ............................................ 19

Contributors .......................................................................................................................... 25

Tables

Table 1. Key Parameters for Hand Held Product Sector .............................................................. 12

Example Product Emulator Chapter Content – (continued) Portable/Consumer – Smartphone/Non-Smartphone Growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

$Bn

2009 2010 2012 2013 20152011 2014 2016

N212.146mvc- value ship

56

98

174

222

275

318

89

$385Bn$377Bn

$361Bn

$324Bn

$276Bn

$235Bn

$178Bn

$146Bn

81

62

54

48

43

Total Branded:

Smartphones: Non-Smartphones:

CAAGR 2011-2016

10.4%

-13.4%

15.4%

339

355

3830

Example Product Emulator Chapter – (continued)

Portable/Consumer, Key Parameters Table 1 (12 rows of ≈ 250) Parameter Descriptions Metric 2011 2013 2015 2017 2023

Components/ Package Typical Product Family

Utilizing

Max Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 500 600 700 800 1200

Average Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 50 55 60 80 120

Average Component Density Substrate Density #/sq.cm 30 40 50 80 120

Maximum I/O per package State of the Art

(production volume) I/O per part 600 675 725 1000 1400

Average I/O per package State of the Art

(production volume) I/O per part 7 7.5 8 9 11

Max Components/sq. cm. Substrate Density #/sq.cm 55 60 70 75 95

Max I/O for 50 mm square SCM

w/ full area array

State of the Art

(production volume) # 3000 3500 5000 8000 1300

Max I/O for 100 mm square MCM

w/ full area array

State of the Art

(production volume) # UA UA UA UA UA

Package I/O Pitch, (area array) Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Package I/O Pitch for SCM (area

array)

Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Package I/O Pitch for MCM (area

array)

Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Package I/O Pitch (perimeter) Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

2013 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

Organic PCB Board

Assembly Customer

Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics

Energy Storage &

Conversion Systems

Modeling, Simulation,

and Design

Packaging

&

Component

Substrates

Semiconductor

Technology

Final

Assembly

Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)

Passive Components

Information

Management

Systems

Test, Inspection &

Measurement

Environmentally

Sustainable

Electronics

Ceramic

Substrates

Thermal

Management

Connectors

MEMS/

Sensors

Red=Business Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem

Solid State Illumination

Photovoltaics

16 16

Organic PCB Board

Assembly Customer

RF Components &

Subsystems

Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics

Energy Storage

Modeling, Simulation,

and Design

Packaging

&

Component

Substrates

Semiconductor

Technology

Final

Assembly

Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)

Passive Components

Information

Management

Systems

Test, Inspection &

Measurement

Environmentally

Sustainable

Electronics

Ceramic

Substrates

Thermal

Management

Connectors

MEMS/

Sensors

Red=Business Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem

Solid State Illumination

Photovoltaics

Power Conversion Systems

Sample Chapter Content – Optoelectronics Contents

Optoelectronics ............................................................................................................................1

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1

Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 11

Situation (Infrastructure) Analysis ........................................................................................ 15

Telecommunications Situation.......................................................................................... 17

The Telecommunications Sector vs Data Communications Sector .................................. 23

FTTX Situation ................................................................................................................. 24

Local Area Network (LAN) Situation .............................................................................. 28

Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) Situation ........................................................ 34

Active Optical Cable Situation ......................................................................................... 38

Backplane Situation .......................................................................................................... 41

On-Card Data Transmission Situation .............................................................................. 46

On-Chip Optical Interconnect Situation ........................................................................... 52

BER (Bit Error Rates) ....................................................................................................... 54

Financial and Business Status ........................................................................................... 55

Status Summary ................................................................................................................ 60

Manufacturing Issues ............................................................................................................ 61

Manufacturing Equipment Availability ............................................................................ 61

Data Communication Manufacturing Process Issues ....................................................... 62

Designing for Manufacturing ............................................................................................ 66

Quality Requirements ....................................................................................................... 67

Environmental Issues ........................................................................................................ 68

Supply Chain Issues .......................................................................................................... 68

Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 69

Critical (Infrastructure) Issues .............................................................................................. 84

Technology Needs ................................................................................................................ 87

Prioritized Research & Development Needs ........................................................................ 89

Gaps and Show Stoppers ...................................................................................................... 90

Recommendations on Potential Alternative Technologies ................................................... 91

Black Swans2 ........................................................................................................................ 92

Appendix A ........................................................................................................................... 93

Graphical Roadmap Representation ................................................................................. 93

Appendix B ........................................................................................................................... 95

Electrons vs Photons for Data Communication ................................................................ 95

Appendix C ........................................................................................................................... 97

Contributors/Acknowledgments ....................................................................................... 97

Appendix D ........................................................................................................................... 98

Glossary ............................................................................................................................ 98

Appendix E ..................................................................................................................... 101

Optoelectronic Internet Links to Items of Interest. ......................................................... 101

Example Chapter Content – Optoelectronics (2)

Plus Tables 45 through 65

Tables

Table 1: Summary of Critical issues, Gaps and Show Stoppers, and Technical Needs .............9

Table 2: Market and Application Mapping: Product status matrix .........................................13

Table 3: Optical Data Transmission Technology Improvements and Potential Future

Improvements .......................................................................................................21

Table 4: Distinct LAN Applications .........................................................................................28

Table 5: MSA Standards Overview ..........................................................................................29

Table 6: Examples of short range, commercial POF based systems. .......................................35

Table 7: Some of the Active Optical Cable Suppliers as of August 2012 ................................38

Table 8: Recent Financial Results of Some Industry Firms .....................................................54

Table 9: Manufacturing Processes for Optical Products with Those Unique

to Optical Products Highlighted .........................................................................58

Table 10: Telecommunications – Key Attribute Needs ............................................................70

Table 11: FTTX (X = Curb, House, Desk, Antenna, etc…) – Key Attribute Needs ................71

Table 12: LANS – Key Attribute Needs ...................................................................................73

Table 13: Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) – Key Attribute Needs ..........................75

Table 14: Active Optical Cables (AOC) – Key Attribute Needs ..............................................76

Table 15: Backplane – Key Attribute Needs ............................................................................78

Table 16: On-Card – Key Attribute Needs ...............................................................................79

Table 17: In-to and Out-of Package –Key Attribute Needs ......................................................80

Table 18: On-Chip – Key Attribute Needs ...............................................................................82

Table 19: Critical Infrastructure Issues .....................................................................................83

Table 20: Technology Needs ....................................................................................................86

Table 21: Research and Development Needs ...........................................................................88

Table 22: Gaps and Show Stoppers ..........................................................................................89

Table 23: Potential Alternate Technologies ..............................................................................90

Table 24: Black Swans 91

Example Chapter Content Optoelectronics (3) Figures

Figure 1: Data rates vs distance with media as a parameter illustrating optical dominance

when distance x data rate exceeds 100 Gb/s. .........................................................1

Figure 2: The Impact of High Performance Computing on the Demand for Optical Links .......3

Figure 3: A 2010 Data Center requires about 25 megawatts of power so energy saving

technology is important. .......................................................................................4

Figure 4: Traffic by data content vs year, both actual and forecast ..........................................11

Figure 5: The overview Graphic of the Optical Electronic TWG Roadmap. ...........................12

Figure 5: Generic Data Transmission Environment .................................................................14

Figure 6: Cost Comparison of Copper vs. Optical by Distance and Bandwidth ......................15

Figure 7: Telecommunication System Capacity and Traffic over 5 decades. ..........................16

Figure 8: Evolution of Telecommunications (>10Km) OE Structure ......................................17

Figure 9: The Shannon Limit and Current Results of Data Transmission Rates

Utilizing Optical Technologies .............................................................................19

Figure 10: Illustrating the Loss in db/Km vs Wavelength of Single Mode Fiber and showing

the “C” band in which the Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier provides

amplification ........................................................................................................20

Figure 11: An Upstream CATV architecture that modulates light sent from the Central

office and returns in with information impressed on it .....................................25

Figure 12: An FTTX architecture that transmits many wavelengths and then sends one

wavelength to a customer or, more often, sends each of the wavelengths

to multiple customers ...........................................................................................26

Figure 13: Evolution of Common Transceivers and Transponders. .........................................31

Figure 14: The Evolution of Transceiver Size to Increase Panel Data Density........................32

Figure 15: Improvements in Density (Gb/s/inch), Power Use and Bandwidth Density for

Various Form Factors in The Order of Their Introduction ................................33

Figure 16: Low cost Connectorless Package of a POF Source. ................................................35

Figure 17: The Above POF Market Chart from IGI. “Plastic Optical Fiber Market &

Technology Assessment Study – 2011” ............................................................36

Figure 18: Graphic from IGI. “Plastic Optical Fiber in Industrial Controls – 2011” ...............37

Figure 19: Typical Active Optical Cable. AOCs Do Not Utilize Optical Connectors, Only

Electrical Connectors at the Ends. The AOC Fiber Bundle Also Has a

Small Diameter Compared to the Electrical Equivalent ....................................39

Figure 20: A series of Charts with Data on Active Optical Cables. From IGI ........................40

Figure 21: An Optical Backplane concept with both electrical and optical connectors

between the cards and backplane ......................................................................41

Figure 22: “FlexPlane” Optical Backplane by Molex ..............................................................42

Figure 23: Reflex Photonics Implementation of Optical Interconnect to supplement an

Electrical Backplane .........................................................................................43

Figure 24: A Drawer from the IBM Blue Waters Super Computer ..........................................44

Figure 25: The BlueWaters Rack Structure that holds Drawers. ..............................................44

Figure 26: A Basic Method to Implement On-Card Optical IO ...............................................45

Figure 27: Provides Some MicroPOD details; close ups of the bottom BGA pattern; a top

view without the 45o connector and ribbon fiber; an array of MicroPODS

with the ribbon fiber and connector illustrating the fiber management 46

Sample Chapter Content – Optoelectronics (4)

20

Figure 28: A close up of the top of the MicroPOD with and without the 45o connector and

ribbon fiber .......................................................................................................46

Figure 29: AIO-TXN-40G 40 Gb/s Surface Mount Transceiver. .............................................47

Figure 30: An On-Card Optical Electronic Data Transmission Approach

from IBM. August 2010 ....................................................................................47

Figure 31: 8-Inch eAOC for Next Generation Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones. ............48

Figure 32: In-to and Out-of Chip SiP Package, Photo Courtesy of Reflex Photonics Inc. ......49

Figure 33: Hyper Dense Optical Module from Reflex Photonics.............................................49

Figure 34: Optical On-Card using In-to & Out-of Package Technology..................................50

Figure 35: Two Approaches for Waveguide Coupling. ............................................................50

Figure 36: Proposed Methods of Coupling Light Into and Out of Optical Substrates .............51

Figure 37: One Current View of the Place for Optical vs Copper On-Chip Interconnect ........53 Figure 38: Transceiver Shipments in units/year .......................................................................55

Figure 39: Overview of the Optical Industry Financial Situation Highlighting the Limited

R&D Investment Available .............................................................................56

Figure 40: Transceiver Revenue by Major Market Segments Historically and as Forecast

by Light Counting ............................................................................................57

Figure 41: FTTX Transceiver Revenue historically and forecast by Standard from

Light Counting ................................................................................................57

Figure 42: The decline in transceiver prices over the decade ending in 2009 ..........................58

Figure 43: Forecast Annual AOC Revenue ..............................................................................58

Figure 44: A Planar Lightwave Circuit, A Passive Device that Requires No Power ...............64

Figure 45: A Photonic Integrated Circuit Built with a Technology That Is Compatible with

CMOS Fabrication ..........................................................................................64

Figure 46: Manufacturing Process for One Product .................................................................65

Optoelectronics and

Optical Storage

Organic Printed

Circuit Boards

Magnetic and

Optical Storage

Semiconductors

iNEMI

Mass Data

Storage TWG

iNEMI / IPC / EIPC

/ TPCA

Organic PWB

TWG

iNEMI / ITRS /

MIG/PSMA

Packaging

TWG

iNEMI

Board

Assembly

TWG

Interconnect

Substrates—Ceramic

iNEMI Roadmap

iNEMI

Optoelectronics

TWG

iNEMI / MIG

/ ITRS

MEMS

TWG

iNEMI

Passives

TWG

• > 650 participants

• > 350 companies/organizations

• 18 countries from 4 continents

• 20 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

• 6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

• > 1900 pages of information

• Roadmaps the needs for 2013-2023

2013 Roadmap

22

Opportunity to network and share ideas with the entire supply chain: 1) Industry drivers are specified in 6 different product areas (chapters). 2) 20 different technology areas are represented as chapters. 3) Cross cutting issues abound and are discussed during roadmap development as applicable. 4) Discussions within and between chapter participants typically uncover issues of common gaps and solutions. 5) Participation typically leads to a great deal of learning and understanding. 6) Roadmap participation can be of great benefit to personal growth and contribute to the person’s job skills. 7) An opportunity to learn team building skills. 8) Become proficient in methods for sharing information for development of published technical information. 9) A forum for improving communication skills. 10) Project management skill enhancement is possible through chapter leadership. 11) Face to face meetings are held in conjunction with industry shows whenever possible to aid learning. 12) Opportunity to form lasting relationships with team members. Open discussion on 2015 iNEMI Roadmap for anyone interested in participating or learning more about the 2015 process . Thursday from 11:00 am -12:00 pm in room South Pacific H.

Situation Analysis

Situation Analysis: Technology • Consumers’ demand for thin multifunctional products has led to

increased pressure on alternative high density packaging technologies.

• High-density 3D packaging has become the major technology challenge

• SiP: – Technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly

processes and for high density substrates • New sensors and MEMs:

– Expected to see exponential growth driven by portable products – Motion gesture sensors expanding use of 2D-axis & 3D-axis

gyroscopes – Segment maturing, encouraging industry collaboration

• 3D IC with TSV: – Driven by Performance and Size requirements

25

Technology Needs

27

Technology Needs • New MEMS driven by Automotive, Medical and Cell

Phone applications

• Thermal Management for Portable Products

• Development of viable rework process for Pb-free soldering

• Cooling Solutions for Portable Electronics (3D-TSV)

• Reliability Evaluation and functional testing of MEMS

• Testing of Energy Managed modules

• Functional Testing of Complex SIPs

• Low Temperature Processing

Expanded Rework Section (SnPb)

28

Area Array and Non-Standard Package Rework

Soldering

Process Parameter Units 2011 2013 2015 2017 2023

SnPb

Maximum package

size mm 50 50 55 60 75

Minimum package

size mm 5 2 1.5 1.5 1

Smallest type of

discretes being

reworked

- 0201

(Imperial)

0201

(Imperial)

01005

(Imperial)

0201

metric

0201

metric

Minimum re-

workable pitch mm 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Target delta T across

solder joints °C <10 <10 <10 <10 <10

Typical rework

profile length (time) min 8 6 to 8 6 to 8 6 to 8 6 to 8

Time Above

Liquidus (TAL) sec 45-90 45-90 45-90 45-90 45-90

Number of allowable

area array reworks at

a specific location

# 3 3 3 3 3

Type of rework

(Conv./IR/Other)

(Other is Laser and

Vapor Phase

Rework)

% 85/15 85/15 85/15 80/20 70/20/10

Type redress

approach (Non

Contact/SolderWick)

% 20/80 20/80 20/80 30/70 40/60

Type of medium

deposit for BGA

component rework

(Paste on PCB/Paste

on Part/Flux only)

(See Note)

% 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20

Expanded Rework Section (Pb-Free)

29

Pb-free

Maximum

package size mm 50 50 55 60 75

Minimum package

size mm 5 2 1.5 1.5 1

Smallest type of

discretes being

reworked

- 0201

(Imperial)

0201

(Imperial)

01005

(Imperial)

0201

metric

0201

metric

Minimum re-

workable pitch mm 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Target delta T

across solder

joints

°C <10 <10 <10 <10 <10

Typical rework

profile length

(time)

min 8 8 8 8 8

Time Above

Liquidus (TAL) sec 60 - 90 60 - 90 60 - 90 60 - 90 60 - 90

Number of

allowable area

array reworks at a

specific location

# 3 3 3 3 3

Type of rework

(Conv./IR/Other)

(Other is Laser

and Vapor Phase

Rework)

% 85/15 85/15 85/15 80/20 70/20/10

Type redress

approach (Non

Contact/Solder

Wick)

% 20/80 20/80 20/80 30/70 40/60

Type of medium

deposit for BGA

component rework

(Paste on

PCB/Paste on

Part/Flux only)

(See Note)

% 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20 40/40/20

Note: The use of solder paste or tacky flux will depend on the type of component being reworked.

Paste is typically used to reduce the affect of component warpage causing Head-in-Pillow component

soldering defects during BGA and PoP part rework. In terms of ease of use and speed of rework, tacky

flux is used more even though it may have an affect first pass yield. The percentages mentioned for

Paste versus Flux medium are for BGA rework and will vary dependent on the type of part being

reworked.

Paradigm Shifts

Paradigm Shifts

• Need for continuous introduction of complex multifunctional products to address converging markets favors modular components or SiP (2-D & 3-D): – Increases flexibility

– Shortens design cycle

• Cloud connected digital devices have the potential to enable major disruptions across the industry: – Major transition in business models

– New Power Distribution Systems for Data Centers

– Huge data centers operating more like utilities (selling data services)

– Local compute and storage growth may slow (as data moves to the cloud)

– “Rent vs. buy” for software (monthly usage fee model)

• Rapid evolution and new challenges in energy consuming products such as SSL, Automotive and more

• Sensors everywhere – MEMS and wireless traffic!

• “More Moore” (scaling of pitch) has reached its forecast limit and must transition to heterogeneous integration - “More Than Moore”.

912.1/105bp

SiP/MCP FORECAST

Product/Package Type

Volume (Bn Units) 2011

2016

Forecast Leading Suppliers/Players

Stacked Die In Package 6.8 10.9 ASE, SPIL, Amkor, STATS ChipPAC, Samsung,

Micron, Hynix, Toshiba, SanDisk

Stacked Package on Package

(PoP/PiP) 0.7 1.5

Amkor, STATS ChipPAC, ASE, SPIL, TI,

Samsung, Renesas, Sony, Panasonic

PA Centric RF Module 3.7 3.9 RFMD, Skyworks, Anadigics, Renesas,

TriQuint, Avago

Connectivity Module

(Bluetooth/WLAN) 0.5 0.6 Murata, Taiyo Yuden, ACSIP, ALPS

Graphics/CPU or ASIC MCP 0.1 0.2 Intel, IBM, Fujitsu

Leadframe Module

(Power/Other) 3.0 5.0

NXP, STMicro, TI, Freescale, Toshiba, NEC,

Infineon, Renesas, IR, ON Semi

TOTAL 14.8 22.1

Courtesy of Prismark Partners

Internet Traffic Forecast

Traffic by data content vs year, both actual and forecast. H-S= High Speed

Traffic; AAA=Advanced Architecture Traffic

Source: International Gatekeepers Inc.

report "North American Network Traffic Forecast April, 2011"

Data Center Energy Conservation Critical

34

A 2010 Data Center requires about 25 megawatts of power so energy saving technology is important.

GLOBAL MEDICAL ELECTRONICS MARKET SUMMARY

k912.169bes-med summary

Instruments used to measure and

monitor a patients’ vital signs and

other functions.

Example: blood glucose, ECG

All other electronics used

for medical applications

Example: surgical tools,

test & analytical,

medical IT,

biochips, RFID

Diagnostics and Imaging

Diagnostic instruments that provide

high resolution pictures of structures

inside the body.

Example: MRI, X-ray, ultrasound

Equipment used in the treatment

of specific medical conditions

Example: defibrillator, hearing aid

Medical Therapy Patient Monitoring Others

2011

TOTAL: $91Bn

CAAGR 4.4%

TOTAL: $113Bn

2016

Diagnostics

and Imaging

29%

Diagnostics

and Imaging

26%

Medical Therapy

28%

Medical Therapy

29%

Patient

Monitoring

19%

Others

24%Others

24%

Patient

Monitoring

21%

TELE HEALTH AND BODY AREA NETWORKS

• Tele-health systems range from

standalone monitors to personal alarms.

• Bluetooth-based body sensor networks

can autonomously monitor vital signs

and, in the future, deliver precise drug

doses autonomously.

• An electronic monitoring system replaces

a labor service such as a home health

care attendant, nurse, or an assisted

living abode.

• Prismark estimates that the hardware

value was approximately $1.2Bn in 2010.

• Prismark expects growth rates in excess

of 20% over the next ten years.

311.10/169rd

TUNSTALL TELECARE SYSTEM

MEDTRONIC MINILINK™ GLUCOSE SENSOR

iNEMI/ITRS Collaboration

Present/Future

ITRS / iNEMI Roadmap Comparison

The iNEMI Technology Roadmap is focused on the business & technology areas (26) associated with the electronics’ industries global supply chain. It is a “Market Pull” roadmap that defines desired product attributes & asks what technologies are needed to support them. iNEMI’s large OEM membership is a benefit and an advantage in needs identification. The iNEMI Roadmap collaborates with 13 other organizations including the IPC and ITRS in developing it’s chapters. The roadmap is the starting point of the iNEMI process for identifying technology or business gaps. The iNEMI gap identification process is distinctive and sets the iNEMI roadmap apart from others.

The ITRS is focused on semiconductor technology and has been a “Technology Push” roadmap that looks at the progress of technology and asks what products subsequently can be developed. The ITRS roadmap has utilized Moore's Law and heuristic equations as its foundation. With the options for scaling shrinking, a “More-than-Moore” approach is needed. The ITRS collaborates with the iNEMI Roadmap in several areas to drive product attribute needs down to the semiconductor technology level. The Packaging and MEMS chapters of both roadmaps are developed by a common set of leaders and subsets of participants.

Design and System Drivers ITRS-iNEMI Domain Space

•Chip level •System level

•Tech

•requirements

•Market

•requirements

•iNEMI

•(emulators)

•ITRS

•(Drivers)

•*Source: ITRS Design/System Drivers TWG Chairman, Dr. Juan-Antonio Carballo

Present • ITRS (International Technology Roadmap For Semiconductors) shares

leadership and participants with the iNEMI Roadmap Packaging & Component Substrates TWG and the MEMS TWG.

• The ITRS is fully updated bi-annually and tables annually. • The ITRS Packaging chapter focuses on semiconductor fabrication and

packaging while the iNEMI chapter focuses on the impacts of semiconductor packaging and component substrates evolution on assembly and test issues.

• Some iNEMI PEGs (Product Emulator Groups) provide “key attribute” drivers for the ITRS Design and System Drivers ITWGs (International Technology Working Groups).

• The ITRS completed their 2012 table updates and are now working their 2013 total roadmap update – becoming the input for the iNEMI 2015 Roadmap.

• iNEMI and the ITRS co-hosted (with IPC participating) a one-day workshop on April 24th , 2013 in Lyon, France.

40

Future • Develop graphic to show holistic links • For these linked TWGs provide URL links in roadmap chapters

– Leverage ITRS semiconductor focus and iNEMI system focus to facilitate collaboration between key chapters to help effect a holistic approach to technology development

• Emphasize need for industrial cooperation to develop optimized system solutions to today’s brick walls

• Expand and formalize the process for iNEMI PEGs (Product Emulator Groups) providing “key attribute” drivers for the ITRS Design and System Drivers ITWGs (International Technology Working Groups).

• iNEMI and the ITRS will again co-sponsor a one-day workshop in Frankfort, Germany this April to discuss advancing the collaborative relationship in “More Than Moore” or heterogeneous integration in future roadmaps.

• The entire ITRS is available at: http://www.itrs.net/Links/2012ITRS/Home2012.htm 41

Next Steps

Product

Needs

Technology

Evolution

Gap

Analysis/

Technical

Plan

Research

Projects

Implementation

Competitive

Solutions

Roadmap Project

Completion

Industry Solution

Needed

Academia

Government

iNEMI

Users & Suppliers

Regional

Collaboration

No Work

Required or

Outsourced

Available

to Market

Place

Global

Participation

Disruptive

Technology

Next Steps: Identify Initiatives to Close Gaps

Technical Plan for Members 5 Year Plan for Implementation

2013

Technical

Plan

(iNEMI Members Only)

• Implementation Plan for Key Areas

•Areas selected by TC

•Plans developed and Prioritized by Members

•2013 Plan Covers 7 Project Areas

2013 Research Priorities Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Research Needs to support iNEMI Technology Implementation Groups (TIGs) and current Projects Chapter 3: Emerging Technologies Chapter 4: Research Priorities Summarized by Research Area

Design Manufacturing Processes Materials & Reliability Sustainability Summary

Chapter 5: Conclusions and Recommendations Appendixes

2013 Research Priorities

46 46

2015 Roadmap Schedule

• 3Q2013: Recruit Product Sector Champions, teams and refine data charts/Begin 2015 Roadmap Newsletter & send 2013 PEG chapters

• 3/4Q13: Product Sector Champions Develop Emulators – September 16, 2013 – Teleconference with P.E. Group Chairs

– September 27, 2013 Web based meeting TWG/PEG Chairs (key attributes)

– October 16, 2013 – SMTAI Presentation on 2015 Plans

– October 17, 2013 - Roadmap PEG Kick-off with PEG/TWG/TC at SMTAI

• 2013 Roadmap chapter, format, Exec. Summary emailed to each TWG chair (Word) 1/3/2014

• Organizing Teleconference with TWG Chairs 1/10/2014:

• Feb 19,20 2014 PEG Workshop/TWG Kick-off – Agilent Technologies, Santa Rosa, CA – Product Sector Tables Complete – PEG Chapter rough drafts written

– Cross cut issues are initially addressed

• April 15, 2014 TC/PEG chapter status review meeting using WebEX

• May 13, 2014 Telecon With TWG Chairs, Preliminary PEG Chapters Due

47 47

2015 Roadmap Schedule - Continued

• May 27, 2014 – N.A. RM WS - Open Roadmap TWG Presentations in Orlando, FL (ECTC)

• June 11, 2014 European Roadmap Workshop/Webinar – 9:00 AM EDT

• June 18, 2014 – Asian Roadmap Workshop/Webinar – 8:00 PM EDT

• July 14, 2014 – TWG Drafts Due for TC Review

• August 20-21, 2014 – TC Face-to-Face Review with TWG Chairs at IBM in RTP, N.C.

• September 22, 2014 Final Chapters of Roadmap Due

• October 2, 2014 TC Briefing/SMTA at SMTAI (Rosemont, Illinois)

• October 31, 2014 – Edit, Prepare Appendix A-D, Executive Summary

• November 20, 2014 – Go To “Press”

• December 5, 2014 – Ship to Members

• April TBD, 2015 – Global industry roadmap presentations via webinars

Completing the 2013 iNEMI Roadmap Cycle • 2013 iNEMI Roadmap Development Cycle is wrapped up!

• iNEMI Technology Plan Completed & available to members

• iNEMI Free Research Priorities Document Completed & available at www.inemi.org

• Roadmap Available to Members and industry now:

– Order the 2013 iNEMI Roadmap flash drive at www.inemi.org

– Individual roadmap chapters are also available as a PDF document at www.inemi.org

– Also available at IPC On-line Bookstore

• 2015 iNEMI Roadmap Kickoff held February 19-20, 2014 at Agilent Technologies, Santa Rosa, CA

– Contact Chuck Richardson for more details at crichardson@inemi.org

48

Roadmap Email Contacts: Chuck Richardson crichardson@inemi.org Grace O’Malley gomalley@inemi.org Bill Bader Bill.bader@inemi.org www.inemi.org