Highlights

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SUMMER 2014

Afghanistan in Transition

In this issue:

CRISIS IN UKRAINE

AFGHANISTAN IN TRANSITION

EWI LAUNCHES GLOBAL COOPERATION IN CYBERSPACE

U.S.-CHINA TRUST-BUILDING

NEXTGEN

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SUMMER 2014 Learn more about EWI ideas at: www.ewi.info/ideas/all

COO’s ReportJames L. Creighton, Chief Operating Officer

Over the past few months, we have witnessed tremen-dous uncertainty

around the globe with few clear paths forward. New challenges to global stability and security are inevitable. Yet, we must remember that times like these beg for creative resolutions, and EWI remains committed to advancing its core mission of fostering trust in the most troubled international rela-tionships.

Our Abu Dhabi Process meeting exemplifies this core belief. In June, EWI’s Brus-sels center held a roundtable discussion on Afghanistan’s opportunities and challenges post-2014. The event also officially launched EWI’s newest report, Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014. Centering on possi-bilities in agriculture, mining, energy and infrastructure, the discussion focused on Af-ghanistan’s great economic potential. This meeting was the culmination of four previ-ous events in Istanbul, Islam-abad, New Delhi and Berlin. Collectively, they covered cross-border challenges and opportunities for collabora-tion throughout Central and South Asia, engaging many government and business leaders from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, the EU, the U.S. and other countries. In the coming months, EWI will be advocating for policy implementation by forming

a multinational expert task force to engage appropriate private and public sector leaders in these countries.

Our China work continues to foster improved relations be-tween China and the U.S. As part of the ongoing U.S.-Chi-na High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue—organized by the EastWest Institute in partnership with the Inter-national Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC)—a delegation of CPC senior officials met with U.S. Democratic and Republican Party leaders, as well as cur-rent and former U.S. officials in Washington, D.C. and New Jersey, in early May.

Wang Jiarui, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the minister of the International Depart-ment of the CPC’s Central Committee, led the CPC delegation in this seventh iteration of the U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue. Edward Rendell, former general chair of the Democratic National Committee and former gov-ernor of Pennsylvania, and Robert M. Duncan, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, led the U.S. delegation, which also included sitting party officers from both committees.

Dialogue sessions high-lighted the measures that the

CPC has taken to implement the reform plan outlined last November at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, as well as the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and their implications for the 2016 presidential elections. The delegates discussed Presi-dent Obama’s recent visit to Asia and the effects of U.S. and Chinese domestic poli-tics on U.S.-China relations. The CPC delegation also met with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. The 6th meeting of the U.S.-Chi-na Sanya Initiative, involving U.S. and Chinese retired flag officers, will be held in the Washington, D.C. area in late September.

On our cyber front, we’ve just completed a very success-ful invitation-only working roundtable on “Pathways to Improve Global Cooperation in Cyberspace,” that took place in San Francisco in June. This working round-table was the formal launch of the EastWest Institute’s Global Cooperation in Cyber-space and served as a prepa-ratory meeting for the 2014 Global Cyberspace Coopera-tion Summit to take place in Berlin, December 3-5.

Our Berlin summit, co-host-ed by the German Foreign Office, will bring together leading global experts from the fields of business, gov-

ernment, policy, technology and civil society to find ways to mitigate the negative con-sequences of global Internet fragmentation.

As the crisis in Ukraine con-tinues to evolve, EWI contin-ues to provide daily updates on our site with relevant commentary. With a center in Moscow and our more than 30-years of experience in the region, we will seek to keep channels of communication among the parties to the cur-rent conflict open, with the aim of easing tensions and allowing for the development of new solutions. Despite the increased tensions between the U.S. and Russia, EWI con-tinues its work on narcotraf-ficking. The joint U.S.-Russia working group, composed of both Russian and American experts, met in Moscow for their steering group meeting in late June, and a report will be forthcoming. Our MENA work also continues, as we engage with private and pub-lic sector leaders in order to create a high-level platform to focus on solving seemingly intractable problems.

We are tremendously proud of EWI’s accomplishments and its ability to act as a catalyst for global change. Your continued involvement and support is appreciated beyond measure.

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Learn more about EWI ideas at: www.ewi.info/ideas/all Read more on developments in Europe at: www.ewi.info/places/europe

Crisis in UkraineEWI has provided daily website updates and thought pieces from staff and fellows.

“Ukraine possesses—at least on paper—the necessary elements to establish itself as a prosperous, peaceful and dynamic nation in the heart of Eastern Europe. In reality, inept, dishonest and outright criminal leadership has continued to prevent the country from reaching its potential.”

“Looking back, the 2004 protests—when Ukrainian masses gathered to express their dissatisfaction with unfair elections—was a peaceful time compared to now.”

“Ukrainians are likely to see this rerun of terrible political leadership because they have yet to internalize and apply the rule of law, or other institutional concepts that allow Western democracies to flourish. The root of failing Ukrainian democracy is the ghost of dishonest bureaucracy.”

“Neither the EU nor Russia can solve the country’s problems: only Ukrainians can save Ukraine.”

Ukraine: Can it live up to its promise? BY NADIYA KOSTYUK

“In 2009, a group of eminent people convened by the EastWest Institute warned of a possible crisis in and around Ukraine. The report documented a collapse of trust between NATO and the West, especially after the short military conflict in Georgia in 2008, and the failure of Europe’s institutions to address the basic challenges that surfaced in that dire event.”

“It was the absence of a fundamental settlement that prevented collaboration between Russia, Europe and the United States to help Ukraine through its crisis in the last five years.”

Failures of Diplomacy in UkraineBY GREG AUSTIN

“Economics might indeed become hostage to political tensions. However, while political links between Moscow and Kiev are virtually nonexistent, business contacts continue even though they are not always smooth.”

Why the Ukraine Crisis is a Political Earthquake and not an Energy QuakeBY DANILA BOCHKAREv

“If Ukraine wants to avoid further division and possibly a civil war, the new government leaders need to stop confusing their nationalistic ideas with patriotism.”

Understanding National Identity: Ukraine’s Ethnic DiversityBY SHERzOD GULAMOv

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Learn more about EWI’s Parliamentarians Network at: www.pncp.net

At a June 11 workshop in Brussels, EWI launched

Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014, a report that summarizes the results of two years of meetings among Central, South Asian and other public and private sector leaders on the economic potential of post-conflict Afghanistan. The meetings generated concrete recommendations for regional government policy, including reduction of trade barriers, business sector action and

international support. The purpose of the Brussels workshop was to mobilize EU-based regional stakeholders and interested EU leaders to help realize this potential.

Afghanistan is a strategically located trade hub at the crossroads of Asia, connecting the Indian subcontinent with Central Asia, the Middle East and China. When integrated with the greater Central and South Asian region and linked to the rest of the world, Afghanistan presents attractive economic growth and investment

opportunities in several sectors. These include agriculture, energy, mining and infrastructure. • Agriculture generates

50 percent of the country’s GDP and supports 85 percent of its people, with the potential to be food self-sufficient. Once called the “Garden of Central Asia,” Afghanistan also produces high-value crops like raisins, pomegranates, pistachios and almonds, in high global demand.

• Major regional energy projects are moving ahead, e.g., the TAPI gas pipeline from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan to India, and the Central Asia-South Asia electricity transmission project (CASA 1000) electricity grid, allowing Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to sell electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

• Afghanistan itself has large, untapped coal, natural gas and oil fields.

Afghanistan in TransitionEconomic Opportunities in Central and South Asia

ADP meeting in Brussels on June 11, 2014.

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Two years after deliberations began, Afghanistan’s Lower House has approved a new set of mining laws to improve frameworks for investment in mining.

The law will allow businesses to bid for extraction of mining resources and 5 percent of revenues will go toward development priojects in mining areas. This legislation is critical to the sustained security of the region, now and beyond 2014. Mining is Afghanistan’s

largest immediate asset, estimated to be worth approximately $1 trillion currently with the potential for $3 trillion more.

Ramazan Jumazada, MP from Afghanistan and member of EWI’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention, says: “We do believe this will have a very significant impact on attracting domestic and foreign investment in Afghanistan. The mining sector is a very good alternative for

Afghanistan’s sustainability and will help Afghanistan to reduce its dependency on foreign aid.”

After troop withdrawal later this year, Afghanistan will need to become more self-sustaining. To do so, the country must increase investment, both foreign and domestic, in extraction of its rich natural resources.

Learn more about our work in Southwest Asia at: www.ewi.info/places/southwest-asia

• Afghanistan also has substantial untapped deposits of copper, lithium, rare earths, gold and gemstones.

• Transport infrastructure will be critical as the country exploits its resources and goods are trans-shipped to fast-growing economies.

Next Steps

The next ADP mobilization workshops will take place in Washington, D.C., and New York City in September 2014. High-level regional representatives and business leaders will continue to find ways to encourage trade, cooperation and investment, advocate for policy implementation and reach out to interested constituencies.

The Abu Dhabi Process

The Abu Dhabi Process (ADP) is a series of EastWest Institute-led meetings that began in 2012, which engages leaders from governments, parliaments, NGOs and the business community—from Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, the United States and Europe. ADP encouraged cooperation and trade to create a secure and economically vibrant future for the people of Afghanistan and the region after the 2014 international coalition troop withdrawal.

Afghanistan’s Mining Laws Passed

Afghanistan in Transition

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On June 16, EWI launched its newest initiative: Global

Cooperation in Cyberspace. The launch, held in San Francisco, kicked off a three-year project with the objective of mitigating the negative consequences of global Internet fragmentation.

The challenges faced by the new initiative are threefold: political and economic, including trade issues, Internet

content, privacy concerns and services and data; security concerns, including the interconnection of society, risk of cyber attacks, deliberate or otherwise, and the avoidance of a cyber-arms race; and governance concerns, including fostering agreement on both a national and international scale as to how to police the Internet. If these three influences are not successfully managed, trust in the Internet will

erode and a militarized, fragmented “Splinternet” will emerge to undermine global economic growth and fuel dangerous regional and international instability. True cybersecurity requires the participation of public and private sector actors.

Surrounding the identified challenges, Global Cooperation in Cyberspace mobilizes the public and private sphere around three objectives: economic and

political development to increase availability and security of Information Communication Technology products, manage barriers, and explore surveillance, privacy and big data; digital security and stability to mitigate the risks to infrastructure posed by attacks, assist and enforce law against cyber-crime, and promote parameters around the use of cyber weapons; and sound governance and management to

Learn more about our work at: www.ewi.info/issues/cyberspace

San Francisco Roundtable Launches Global Cooperation in Cyberspace Initiative

Cyberspace

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begin the development of transparent, accountable and inclusive governance structures and build trust in the Internet.

The Global Cooperation in Cyberspace Initiative uses EastWest’s proven process—Convene, Reframe, Mobilize—to help achieve the three objectives that will mitigate the impact of the Splinternet. This work takes place through breakthrough groups based on these challenges and objectives.

Next Meeting

The seven groups will meet three times this year, both online and in person, culminating in the Berlin Summit on December 3-5, 2014. The summit will be an official part of Germany’s G7 presidency.

According to Senior vice President Bruce McConnell, cybersecurity is improving in the financial, telecommunications and energy sectors. However, in a May 15 interview with Inside Cybersecurity, McConnell warned that, “Second-tier companies are the weak link.” He added, “They are less able to make the investments and less aware of the issue. That’s one point that isn’t fixed yet.”

The implementation of cybersecurity is still being pushed more by the government than by private companies. Agencies like the Department of Homeland Security, the National Institute of Standards and Security (NIST) and the Small Business Administration are trying to change this, stressing the importance of private sector involvement. The

financial sector is leading the way in cyber policy. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is developing working groups to better implement the NIST framework, but regulators are not necessarily doing the same.

McConnell posed an important question, “What does it take to get companies to make investments in cybersecurity?” While companies have begun investing more, the pace is still slow. The other issue is translating awareness of these issues into tangible actions. The biggest driver of this transformation, McConnell says, will be consumer demand. Once consumers “get fed up with bad security, they will demand change.”

Inside Cybersecurity Interviews McConnell

Pathways to Improve Global Cooperation in Cyberspace

San FranciscoJune 2014

GlobalCyberspaceCooperationSummit V

BerlinDecember 2014

GlobalCyberspaceCooperationSummit V

2015 WorkingRoundtable

Location: TBD

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David Firestein, Perot fellow and vice president of EWI’s

Strategic Trust-Building Initiative, presented his recommendations from Threading the Needle: Proposals for U.S. and Chinese Actions on Arms Sales to Taiwan in Washington, D.C. on June 5.

The hearing, “Recent Developments in China’s Relations with Taiwan and North Korea,” was hosted by the U.S.-China Economic and Security

Review Commission (USCC) in Washington, D.C. The USCC provides recommendations to Congress for legislative and administrative action.

Stressing the need for a fresh approach to ease cross-Strait military tensions, Firestein recommended incremental adjustments in U.S. annual arms deliveries to Taiwan—ideally at the same time that China withdraws a portion of its short-

range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan—and notifications to Congress of such arms sales on a regular, predictable and normalized schedule. These adjustments could be made while maintaining policies in place for U.S.-Taiwan relations, continuing the sale of defensive arms to Taiwan in the future and continuing to encourage and commit to promoting relations with Taiwan within the constraints of U.S.-China policy.

EWI, in conjunction with the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), held a High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue in Washington, D.C. and New Jersey in early May. The delegation is the seventh round of talks—which began in 2010—and highlighted how the CPC has made strides in implementing reforms outlined last year. Attendees discussed President Obama’s trip to Asia and the effects of both countries’ domestic policies on U.S.-China relations.

7thU.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue

Learn more about our work with China at: www.ewi.info/places/china

ChinaThreading the Needle Heard on the Hill

“The U.S.-China Party to Party Dialogue bears great significance for a better mutual understanding of each other’s culture and governance structure. It also plays an irreplaceable role in promoting the state-to-state relations.”

International Department, Central Committee, Communist Party of China

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7thU.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue

The delegates met with Secretary of State John Kerry, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Governor Chris Christie. This was the highest-level major political party meeting in the history of U.S.-China relations.

The Political Party Leaders Dialogue seeks to build understanding and trust among policy makers from the U.S. and China, and it allows for an informal exchange of thoughts and ideas on issues of governance and foreign policy.

Next Generation

In June 2014, the EastWest Institute’s Communications team began the process of migrating the existing nextgen website to its own domain. An EWI initiative, nextgen seeks to connect foreign policy’s younger generations with those more experienced in the field.

The blog—www.ewinextgen.com—provides young professionals with a platform to voice their opinions on a variety of issues such as (but not limited to) politics, economics, international relations and governance.

While opinions voiced on the blog may not necessarily reflect those of EWI, it provides a way for younger people to engage with senior-level policy and decision makers.

Nextgen seeks new contributors to its blog. If you would like to participate, please visit the website for more information. There is also an option to subscribe to a weekly digest of the week’s top stories. While postings are subject to reviewer discretion, we aim to include a number of varied and thought-provoking pieces each week.

We look forward to hearing from you.

A New nextgen: We Want to Hear from You!

t fEWinstitute EastWestInstitute

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Interview: Stephen Heintz

After spending so much time in Eastern Europe, what are your thoughts on Ukraine? Did you see the current situation coming?

We had a lot of concern at the time of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 about the future of Ukraine because of its close proximity to Russia and its even closer proximity to the Russian soul. There was a lot of anxiety as to whether Ukraine would remain a unitary state or whether it might split east and west. The institute’s work at the time, which I was deeply involved in, was to try and help leaders in Ukraine, Europe, the U.S. and Russia understand a path forward. It’s obviously very troubling to see what’s happening today— the loss of lives, ongoing tensions, the threat of a new Cold War between the West and Russia and the potential that this

could escalate further. And yet, it reminds me of the institute’s strength and suggests to me the institute has a unique role to play.

How do you see this playing out in the future?

The problem now is that having set some of these things in motion—in particular Russian support, covert or overt, of the separatists in eastern Ukraine—unleashed forces that are no longer controlled by anyone. And that makes it a high risk environment. I tend to think, from the sources I have, that Putin is not entirely in control of all pro-Russia forces in eastern Ukraine. Even if he were to send the message that he wants them to withdraw or lay down their arms, I’m not sure they’d respond, and that’s the risk in these situations. I’m

encouraged, on the other hand, by the process that the new president, Petro Poroshenko, initiated before the recent military campaign. They include a willingness to engage in serious peace talks; the offer of a cease fire; the offer of amnesty for those involved unless they’ve committed capital offences; the willingness to think about the greater devolution of power to provinces in Ukraine over key matters of the economy; the use of the Russian language; and teaching in schools.

You’ve dedicated your life to public policy—what has been most enjoyable about that?

I think the part that’s most enjoyable is actually being able to be part of things bigger than myself and to contribute to things that help large numbers of people. There’s something very satisfying about

contributing in that way that is very meaningful. Prior to joining the institute, my career had been 15 years in U.S. domestic politics and government. By 1989, I began to look for new ways, outside of politics, to contribute to progress on important issues. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, I immediately looked for a way to work on the issues of post-communist transition in Central and Eastern Europe, which is when I discovered the work of the institute and had the good luck to be hired by John Mroz to help launch the institute’s first European headquarters in Prague. Moving into the nonprofit sector and to an activist organization like EWI was a fantastic opportunity.

I learned so much from EWI and John [Mroz], in particular, about visionary leadership, risk taking, nimbleness and

PeopleA conversation with EWI Board Member Stephen Heintz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Heintz spoke with Communications on the evolving Ukraine crisis, his dedication to public policy and jazz.

“I think the part that’s most enjoyable is actually being able to be part of things bigger than myself and to contribute to things that help large numbers of people.”

Stephen Heintz

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Learn more about our board at: www.ewi.info/people/board

flexibility. I learned that effectively utilizing all the distinct attributes of the nonprofit sector, including its independence and ability to innovate, can be a really high-impact, high-reward experience.

What kind of issues do you consider important or hope the institute will take on in the next several years? Where do you think we can really have an impact, given that we’re such a different medium from government?

At the highest level, I think the institute has a very unusual, if not genuinely unique opportunity, to contribute to global thinking and strategy in today’s very different global environment. This is a century in which most problems do not reside within confines of national borders and in which power is shifting dramatically. These radical changes require completely new thinking about geostrategic relationships, about the role of national governments and about

foreign policy. I think the institute is especially qualified to contribute. We have this capacity because of our network, our dynamism, our place in the nonprofit sector, to really help leaders who are constrained by many factors and thus are often unable to think in creative ways. The institute’s ability to work across the sectors of government and the private sector means we can make valuable contributions on these emerging global challenges.

I read somewhere you enjoy sailing. Do you have any other hobbies—what do you do to blow off steam?

Sailing is definitely a big one. The other thing I like to do is reading—both fiction and non-fiction. I’m also a very enthusiastic jazz aficionado. I really enjoy going to hear good jazz—my true passion runs to small group jazz of the 1940s, 50s and 60s.

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EastWest InstituteNew York Center11 East 26th Street, 20th FloorNew York, NY 10010 U.S.A.

October 15-17, New York,Fall Board Meeting and Annual Dinner

The 2014 Fall Board of Directors Meeting and Awards Dinner will be held in New York City.

September 19-23, Leesburg, vA and Washington, D.C.6th U.S.-China Sanya Initiative

In September, a delegation of retired gener-als and admirals from the Chinese military will visit the United States to meet with a delegation of retired U.S. flag officers as part of the 6th meeting of the U.S.-China Sanya Initiative. The visit, coordinated by the EastWest Institute in partnership with the China Association of International Friendly Contact, will include several days of meetings and dialogue sessions.

December 3-5, BerlinGlobal Cooperation in Cyberspace Summit V

This summit will mark the comple-tion of the first year of EWI’s new initiative, aimed at mitigating the negative consequences of global In-ternet fragmentation. Engaging with leaders from the public and private spheres, the program seeks to ad-dress a range of political, economic, security and governance concerns.

Coming Up