highway model for istanbul
DESCRIPTION
Development of a highway model for the Istanbul strait/metropolitan areaTRANSCRIPT
PRESENTATION
Istanbul Strait Road Tunnel Crossing
Development of a highway model for the Istanbul metropolitan area
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Outline
Project procurement Forecasting issues Forecasting approach Istanbul Traffic Model Project status and forward programme
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Istanbul strategic highway network
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Cross-Bosporus traffic growth
Current cross-Bosporus traffic = 400,000 AADT Bosporus Bridge at capacity late 1990’s. FSM Bridge approaching capacity.
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Fatih Sultan Mehmet
Bogazici
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The Project
14.6-km. motorway, including 5.4-km. twin-deck tunnel under the Bosporus in central Istanbul. Approach motorways widened to 4 lanes/direction. Bored tunnel restricted to cars and minibuses. Revenue guarantee = 25m. vehicles p.a.. Capital cost – c. $1.1bn..
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Project Procurement
The first Turkish transportation PPP project. BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) tender:
– Issued by Turkish government - December 2006. – Bids submission - June 2008– Awarded - January 2009– Contract signed - February 2011.
Awarded to ATAS consortium on the basis of shortest concession period required. Concession period - 30 years, 6 months, 9 days, including 4 years, 7
months construction period.
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Traffic and revenue forecasting issues
Toll sensitivity Maximum toll permitted = $4.72
Land use development and economic growth– Population = c.12m., growing at 3% p.a.– Incomes 60% above national average, – Projected GDP growth = c.4%+ p.a.
Induced/suppressed demand– Suppressed demand from high congestion levels, especially on
Bosporus crossings Highway developments
– North Marmara motorway / 3rd Bosporus Bridge– Post-privatisation tolling on bridges
Modal competition– Marmaray rail link
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Forecasting approach
Existing modeling resources:– No available traffic model– ATC data and some O-D data– Limited journey time data.
Data collection programme Highway traffic model Mode choice model for public transport diversion
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Data collection
Traffic count survey Bosporus and FSM bridges 40+ other count locations across Istanbul.
Origin-Destination survey All cross-Bosporus flows covered by 18 sites 26,000 interviews.
Journey time survey 3 cross-Bosporus routes surveyed 74 survey runs.
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Istanbul Traffic Model
Zone system 424 zones Market segmentation
– 4 Car segments (commuter, education, business, other)– Minibus– Goods vehicles
Time periods Weekday A.M. peak & inter-peak hour Base year 2009 Forecast horizons 2015 and 2023 Modeling software CUBE Network 66,000 links, based upon satnav data.
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Istanbul Traffic Model - Example
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Project status
Forecasts are confidential Financial Close: Expected December 2011 Funding: Mix of commercial banks and multi-lateral institutions
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Turkish PPP programme
Gebze-Izmir motorway, inc. Izmit Bay Bridge– 420-km. BOT concession– Awarded to bidder offering the shortest concession period– Preferred Bidder: Otoyol S.A.– Capital cost: c.$11bn.– Financial Close: Expected before end-2012.
North Marmara Highway, inc. 3rd Bosporus Bridge– 361-km. BOT concession– Tender expected early 2012– Capital cost: c.$6bn.