historic linepack usage
DESCRIPTION
Historic Linepack Usage. Review Group 291 – May 2010. Historic Closing Linepack. New pipelines. Closing Linepack – last two years. Seasonal variation with demand. Clsoing linepack variation with demand. Closing linepack and residual balancing trades. Closing linepack and aggregate trades. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Historic Linepack Usage
Review Group 291 – May 2010
![Page 2: Historic Linepack Usage](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070410/5681469f550346895db3b7fd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Historic Closing Linepack
Closing Linepack, Oct 2002 to April 2010
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
01/1
0/20
02
01/0
4/20
03
01/1
0/20
03
01/0
4/20
04
01/1
0/20
04
01/0
4/20
05
01/1
0/20
05
01/0
4/20
06
01/1
0/20
06
01/0
4/20
07
01/1
0/20
07
01/0
4/20
08
01/1
0/20
08
01/0
4/20
09
01/1
0/20
09
01/0
4/20
10
mcm
New pipelines
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Closing Linepack – last two years
CLP, 10 May 2008 to 16 May 2010
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
37010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
![Page 4: Historic Linepack Usage](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070410/5681469f550346895db3b7fd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Seasonal variation with demand
CLP and demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
10/0
5/20
08
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
demand
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Clsoing linepack variation with demand
demand and CLP, 10 May 2008 to 16 May 2010
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
demand, mcm
CL
P,
mcm
![Page 6: Historic Linepack Usage](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070410/5681469f550346895db3b7fd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Closing linepack and residual balancing trades
CLP and residual balancing trade volume
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
37010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
CL
P,
mcm
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
res
bal
tra
de
vol,
mcm
trade volume CLP
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Closing linepack and aggregate trades
CLP and aggregate residual balancing trade volume
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
45010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
CL
P,
mcm
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
agg
reg
ate
res
bal
tra
de
vol,
mcm
CLP aggregate trade volume
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Predicted closing linepack - midnight day-ahead
CLP and 00:00 D-1 PCLP
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
41010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
00:00 D-1 PCLP
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PCLP – start of the gas day
CLP and 06:00 D PCLP
270.00
290.00
310.00
330.00
350.00
370.00
390.00
410.00
10/0
5/20
08
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
06:00 D PCLP
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PCLP – midnight on the day
CLP and 00:00 D PCLP
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
41010
/05/
2008
10/0
7/20
08
10/0
9/20
08
10/1
1/20
08
10/0
1/20
09
10/0
3/20
09
10/0
5/20
09
10/0
7/20
09
10/0
9/20
09
10/1
1/20
09
10/0
1/20
10
10/0
3/20
10
10/0
5/20
10
mcm
CLP
00:00 D PCLP
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PCLP evolution
PCLP - CLP, Apr-09 to Mar-10,on days when no residual balancing trades,
at six-hourly intervals from 00:00 D-1
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
00:00 D-1 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 EOD
mcm
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Summary
Closing linepack is managed in a range, with seasonal variation, using residual balancing actions when required.
Large uncertainty in early PCLP values means other considerations needed for day-ahead assessment.