holt ca course 1 11-5probability warm up warm up california standards california standards lesson...
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Warm UpWarm Up
California StandardsCalifornia Standards
Lesson Presentation
PreviewPreview
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Warm UpWrite each fraction in simplest form.
1. 2.
3. 4.
1620
1236
864
39195
4
5
1
3
1
8
1
5
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Review of Grade 6 SDAP3.3 Represent probabilities as ratios, proportions, decimals between 0 and 1, and percentages between 0 and 100 and verify that the probabilities computed are reasonable; know that if P is the probability of an event, 1 – P is the probability of an event not occurring.
California Standards
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Vocabulary
experimenttrialoutcomesample spaceeventprobability
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
An experiment is an activity in which results are observed. Each observation is called a trial, and each result is called an outcome. The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Experiment Sample Space
flipping a coin heads, tails
rolling a number cube 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
An event is any set of one or more outcomes. The probability of an event is a number from 0 (or 0%) to 1 (or 100%) that tells you how likely the event is to happen. You can write probability as a fraction, a decimal, or a percent.
• A probability of 0 means the event is impossible, or can never happen.
• A probability of 1 means the event is certain, or will always happen.
• The probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space add up to 1.
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Never Happens about Alwayshappens half the time happens
14
12
340 1
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Give the probability for each outcome.
Additional Example 1A: Finding Probabilities of Outcomes in a Sample Space
The basketball team has a 70% chance of winning.
P(win) = 70% = 0.7.
P(lose) = 1 – 0.7 = 0.3, or 30%
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Give the probability for each outcome.
Additional Example 1B: Finding Probabilities of Outcomes in a Sample Space
Three of the eight sections of the
spinner are labeled 1, so is a
reasonable estimate.
P(1) = 38
3 8
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 ProbabilityAdditional Example 1B Continued
P(2) =38
Check The probabilities of all the outcomes must add to 1. 3
838
28
++ = 1
Three of the eight sections of the
spinner are labeled 2, so is a
reasonable estimate.
3 8
P(3) =28
Two of the eight sections of the
spinner are labeled 3, so is a
reasonable estimate.
2 8
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Give the probability for each outcome.
Check It Out! Example 1A
The polo team has a 50% chance of winning.
P(win) = 50% = 0.5.
P(lose) = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5, or 50%.
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Give the probability for each outcome.
Check It Out! Example 1B
Three of the eight sections of the
spinner are teal, so is a
reasonable estimate.
P(teal) = 38
3 8
Outcome Teal Red Orange
Probability
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 ProbabilityCheck It Out! Example 1B Continued
P(red) =38
Check The probabilities of all the outcomes must add to 1.
38
38
28
++ = 1
P(orange) =28
Three of the eight sections of the
spinner are red, so is a
reasonable estimate.
3 8
Two of the eight sections of the
spinner are orange, so is a
reasonable estimate.
2 8
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
To find the probability of an event, add the probabilities of all the outcomes included in the event.
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
A quiz contains 5 true-false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score.
Additional Example 2A: Finding Probabilities of Events
What is the probability of guessing 3 or more correct?
The event “three or more correct” consists of the outcomes 3, 4, and 5.
P(3 or more correct) = 0.313 + 0.156 + 0.031 = 0.5, or 50%.
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
What is the probability of guessing fewer than 2 correct?
The event “fewer than 2 correct” consists of the outcomes 0 and 1.
P(fewer than 2 correct) = 0.031 + 0.156 = 0.187, or 18.7%.
Additional Example 2B: Finding Probabilities of Events
A quiz contains 5 true-false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score.
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
A quiz contains 5 true-false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score.
Check It Out! Example 2A
What is the probability of guessing 2 or more correct?
The event “two or more correct” consists of the outcomes 2, 3, 4, and 5.
P(2 or more) = 0.313 + 0.313 + 0.156 + 0.031 = 0.813, or 81.3%.
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
What is the probability of guessing fewer than 3 correct?
The event “fewer than 3” consists of the outcomes 0, 1, and 2.
P(fewer than 3) = 0.031 + 0.156 + 0.313 = 0.5, or 50%.
Check It Out! Example 2BA quiz contains 5 true-false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score.
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Holt CA Course 1
11-5 Probability
Lesson Quiz
Use the table to find the probability of each event.
1. 1 or 2 occurring
2. 3 not occurring
3. 2, 3, or 4 occurring0.874
0.351
0.794