home price monitor 2012-8-29
TRANSCRIPT
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Home Price Monitor
August 2012
National Association of REALTORS
Research Division
Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
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Highlights
Case Shiller data showed the first annual increase in June while other dataseries show a continued 4 to 5 months of annual increases.
NAR data for July show the typical end of summer slowdown as pricesdipped somewhat from June.
New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels ofconstruction and purchase activity; presently new home prices show some
weakness. Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised only
25 percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtorsdown from 40percent in early 2011 to the lowest level since the data began to becollected. While there are still notable numbers of distressed sales due
to increasing overall sales, this reduction of distressed sales share is apositive sign for prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/ -
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Outlook
From a broad perspective, many of the same stabilizing trends continue todrive the outlook, though low inventories have taken the lead role in recent
months. Low inventories and strong buyer demand seen in strong foot traffic
helped boost prices in recent months. If supply slows more than demand
going into the seasonally slower fall months, tighter conditions could continue
to push prices up.
Very limited new construction means that buyers initially searching for a new
home may find more selection among existing homes despite tight inventory.
Housing permits and construction are higher, but are still at low levels, so new
supply is not expected to add downward price pressure anytime soon.
Affordability remains high, and rising apartment rents may make a home
purchase the more affordable option for some households in spite of the oft-
cited generational shift away from housing. This would add to the positive
trend for sales and prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/the-cheapest-generation/309060/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/the-cheapest-generation/309060/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/ -
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Home Prices
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
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Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
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Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
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Jun-05
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Jun-06
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Jun-07
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Dec-09
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Jun-10
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Jun-12
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
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Home Price DataYear over Year Change
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
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Mar-03
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Mar-04
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Mar-05
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Mar-06
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Mar-07
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Mar-08
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Mar-11
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Mar-12
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NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
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Home Price Changes
*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media
regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with
caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a
measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.
Data Series
Jun-12
Monthly
Change*
Jun-12
Annual
Change*
Jul-12
Monthly
Change*
Jul-12
Annual
Change*
Next
Release
Date
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 4.7% 7.5% -0.8% 9.4% 19-Sep
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 5.2% 7.7% -0.8% 9.6% 19-Sep
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 1.2% 3.7% -- -- 25-SepS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 2.3% 0.5% -- -- 25-Sep
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 2.2% 0.1% -- -- 25-Sep
CoreLogic National HPI 1.3% 2.5% -- -- Mid-Sep
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 2.0% 3.2% -- -- Mid-Sep
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -3.4% -4.6% -2.1% -2.5% 26-Sep
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
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Spread of Existing Home Price ChangesYear over Year
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
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Supply and Demand FactorsInventory
Sources: NAR
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes,
United States (Months) (right axis)
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale atEOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)
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SupplyNew Housing Starts and Permits
Sources: Census
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)
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Underlying DemandJob Growth and Hires
Sources: BLS
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)
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Potential Job GrowthOpenings
Sources: BLS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)
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Housing Affordability
Sources: NAR
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite
(right axis)
NAR Payment as Percent of Income
(left axis)
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About the Price Data Series
Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only
Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &
refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10
CoreLogic National HPI
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction
Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor board
data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops
WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and
composites are 3 month moving averages
Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County
recorder data
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER