how casinos have affected maryland lottery...

How Casinos Have Affected Maryland Lottery Sales

Presentation to the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission

August 14, 2014 (Revised October 22, 2014)

Cummings Associates and Casinonomics Consulting

Presentation outline

• Background on lottery and casinos in Maryland

• Literature review

• Tools of analysis

• “Simple” local analyses

• Econometric analyses

• Forecast of new casinos’ effects

• Conclusion

Cummings Associates & Casinonomics 2 October 22, 2014

Background

• Maryland lottery established in 1973 • Annual Sales reached $1 billion in the 1990s, then more

– But traditional products began to decline in early 2012

• Maryland’s first casino (Hollywood) opened in 2010 – Maryland Live! opened in 2012

• Except for Virginia, Maryland is surrounded by casino states – Delaware – West Virginia – Pennsylvania – New Jersey & Ohio also in the region


Background, continued

• Study purpose: Analyze lottery sales data to determine if/how lottery has been affected by casinos in and around Maryland – We also analyze proximity of casinos on lottery sales

• Lottery data provided by Lottery’s vendor, Scientific Games – Vendor-level monthly sales data on 17 lottery games

offered

– July 2009 through February 2014 • Data begin over 1 year before Hollywood Casino opens


Casinos in Maryland

• Four casino properties now operating

• 2014 FY revenues of $833.3 mn

– VLT revenue: $578.4 mn

– Table game revenue: $254.9 mn

• Horseshoe Baltimore opens August 26

• MGM National Harbor to open in 2016


Figure 1. Maryland and nearby casinos


Hollywood Casino

• Perryville, MD

• Opened September 27, 2010

– 1,500 machine games (since reduced)

– 22 table games (added March 2013)

• FY 2014 revenues of $85.7 mn


Casino at Ocean Downs

• Berlin, MD

• Opened January 1, 2011

– 800 machine games

– No table games (yet)

• FY 2014 revenues of $52 mn


Maryland Live! Casino

• Hanover, MD

• Opened June 5, 2012

– 4,332 machine games

– 177 table games



Rocky Gap Casino Resort

• Flintstone, MD

• Opened May 21, 2013

– 550 machine games

– 10 table games



Lottery trends

• Data indicate positive sales trend until early 2012

• Downward trend beginning early 2012, through end of sample (February 2014)

• “Monitor” and “Instant” games have seen most negative trends


Figure 2. Annual lottery sales in Maryland and states nearby (excludes VLT sales)

Data source: LaFleur’s 2009 World Lottery Almanac, LaFleur’s Magazine, and state lottery annual reports.


Table 1. Lottery game groups

Cummings Associates & Casinonomics 13

Game Category Description Game Names

“Instant” tickets Instant/scratch tickets (activations)

(various)

“Monitor” Games played on video monitors; many times per day, with associated bonuses

Keno, Keno Bonus, Keno Super Bonus, Racetrax, Racetrax Bonus

“Pick” “Daily numbers” games

Pick 3 Eve, Pick 4 Eve, Pick 3 Mid, Pick 4 Mid

“Multi-State” “Large” lotto games with associated bonus games

MegaMillions, MegaPlier, Powerball, PowerPlay

“Other” Miscellaneous games

Bonus Match-5, 5-Card Draw, Multi-Match

October 22, 2014

Figure 4. Total monthly sales, by game type


Figure 4A. Total monthly sales, by game type (Instants, Monitor, Pick)

Figure 4B. Multi-State (lotto) games, monthly sales


Figure 4C. “Other” games, monthly sales


Table 2. Review of literature


Paper Years States Key findings

Siegel and Anders (2001)

1993–98 1 state (AZ) • Number of slots has a negative effect on lottery sales • 10% increase in slot machines is associated with 3.8% decline in lottery revenues and 4.2% decrease in Lotto revenues

Elliot and Navin (2002) 1989–95 All states • Lotteries in adjacent states have a negative impact on

home-state lottery • Adjacent state casinos do not affect home-state lottery • Each $1 in state revenue from riverboat gambling leads to a reduction in gross lottery revenues of $1.38

Fink and Rork (2003) 1989-2000 All states • $1 increase in casino tax revenues results in a 56¢ decrease in lottery tax revenues

Spectrum Gaming

(2008) 1985-2005 Selected states • Nominal lottery growth rates are lower after the introduction

of casinos than before

Walker and Jackson (2008)

1985-2000 All states • Casinos have a negative impact on state lottery • Casinos in adjacent states have a negative impact on home-state lotteries

Nathan Associates (2009)

1996-2008 Selected lottery states

• Most states saw a decline in real per capita lottery sales over the period

Pennsylvania (2013) 2000-12 Pennsylvania • Nominal data show modest lottery growth since 2006

• Inflation-adjusted data show decline in lottery revenue from 2006 through 2011

1

October 22, 2014

Tools for analysis

• Software allows us to sort lottery retailers/ sales by county or zip code – ZipCTAs – populated zip codes, data from Easy

Analytic Software

– Scientific Games provided county, zip code

• We also use “travel time” – Calculated using Microsoft MapPoint software

– Sample spot-checked by hand with MapQuest and Googlemaps


Scale of analysis

• Lottery sales data are monthly, by retailer

• Should we analyze casino effect by county, zip code, or individual retailer? – Maryland counties are large, and Maryland Live is

near border of three counties

– Zip code-level analysis is possible and provides a more ‘micro’ view of effects

– Retailer-level would be extremely complicated and tedious, with few advantages • 4 million data points…


“Simple” local analyses

• We first examine lottery sales within the casinos’ host counties

• For Maryland Live, we use zips within 15 min.

– Casino location is near 3 county borders

– This would have complicated a county-level econometric analysis

• We also show data for two control counties (Frederick and Saint Mary’s)


Figure 5. Cecil County lottery sales and Hollywood Casino opening


Table 5. Apparent local impacts of Hollywood Casino (casino opened on 9/27/2010)


Instant Monitor Pick Multi-St Other

Initial product mix 39% 27% 16% 15% 4%

11 months previous $7,409,700 $5,050,307 $3,041,960 $2,813,111 $668,211

11 months after $7,396,200 $4,243,005 $2,965,624 $2,791,866 $634,693

Change -0.2% -16.0% -2.5% -0.8% -5.0%

6 months previous $4,112,700 $2,876,778 $1,664,845 $1,521,863 $339,572

6 months after $4,086,600 $2,320,567 $1,644,398 $1,527,048 $334,123

Change -0.6% -19.3% -1.2% 0.3% -1.6%

2nd Qtr Cal 10 $2,035,800 $1,424,937 $821,029 $845,660 $156,738

2nd Qtr Cal 12* $2,050,800 $1,161,718 $793,619 $799,413 $182,669

Change 0.7% -18.5% -3.3% -5.5% 16.5%

* Note: Maryland Live opened on 6/6/2012.

Figure 6. Worcester County lottery sales and Ocean Downs Casino opening


Table 6. Apparent local impacts of Ocean Downs Casino (casino opened on 1/1/2011)




12 months previous $5,518,200 $11,736,088 $3,445,649 $1,882,958 $431,112

12 months after $4,876,800 $9,968,623 $3,199,336 $1,895,701 $410,532

Change -11.6% -15.1% -7.1% 0.7% -4.8%

6 months previous $3,338,100 $6,715,772 $1,939,375 $1,031,133 $262,614

6 months after $2,906,400 $5,659,988 $1,778,502 $1,077,418 $253,970

Change -12.9% -15.7% -8.3% 4.5% -3.3%

Last Qtr Cal 10 $1,327,200 $2,611,400 $897,706 $467,641 $121,780

Last Qtr Cal 12* $1,084,800 $2,148,777 $786,565 $568,624 $152,280

Change -18.3% -17.7% -12.4% 21.6% 25.0%

* Note: Maryland Live opened on 6/6/2012.

October 22, 2014

Figure 7. Maryland Live Casino opening and lottery sales in zip codes within 15 minutes


Table 7. Apparent local impacts of Maryland Live Casino (casino opened on 6/6/2012)




11 months previous $17,222,100 $19,720,729 $10,376,412 $6,755,574 $1,826,107

11 months after $15,561,600 $17,199,540 $10,657,048 $6,965,980 $2,162,911

Change -9.6% -12.8% 2.7% 3.1% 18.4%

6 months previous $9,859,500 $11,414,268 $5,866,045 $4,491,434 $977,657

6 months after $8,725,500 $9,471,783 $5,937,448 $3,679,965 $1,220,482

Change -11.5% -17.0% 1.2% -18.1% 24.8%

Last Qtr Cal 11 $4,889,400 $5,211,024 $2,875,958 $1,521,368 $473,130

Last Qtr Cal 13 $4,278,600 $4,256,174 $3,064,973 $2,338,899 $552,930

Change -12.5% -18.3% 6.6% 53.7% 16.9%

October 22, 2014

Figure 8. Allegany County lottery sales and Rocky Gap Casino opening


Table 8. Apparent local impacts of Rocky Gap Casino (casino opened on 5/22/2013)




11 to 3 months previous $3,210,300 $1,771,462 $961,656 $1,340,947 $338,541

9 months after $3,218,400 $1,691,368 $981,063 $1,507,973 $329,002

Change 0.3% -4.5% 2.0% 12.5% -2.8%

5 to 3 months previous $1,123,800 $602,351 $321,287 $342,428 $122,481

3 to 5 months after $1,101,600 $552,431 $315,988 $583,695 $100,504

Change -2.0% -8.3% -1.6% 70.5% -17.9%

First Qtr Cal 13 $1,168,500 $601,114 $321,859 $440,218 $117,658

First Qtr Cal 15 na na na na na

Change na na na na na

October 22, 2014

Figure 9. Frederick County lottery sales


Figure 10. Saint Mary’s County lottery sales


Table 11. Summary of apparent near-term impacts on local lottery sales


Instant Monitor Pick Multi-St

Hollywood Casino -0.2% -16.0% -2.5% -0.8%

Ocean Downs Casino -11.6% -15.1% -7.1% 0.7%

Maryland Live Casino -9.6% -12.8% 2.7% 3.1%

Rocky Gap Casino* 0.3% -4.5% 2.0% 12.5%

* Changes for Rocky Gap are for the 9 months following, not 11 or 12.

Econometric analyses

• Statistical analysis of lottery sales data

• Model explains “change in sales” (Δ Sales) over the same month the year before – Key explanatory variable is Δ Gravity

– Controls for other factors that might affect lottery sales

– This is the first study to explain lottery sales using an intra-state casino proximity variable • Other studies found negative impact from adjacent

state casinos


Table 12. Basic regression results


Instant

Monitor Pick Multi-State Other

Constanta

(p-value)b

321.1293

(0.0451)

40.08864

(0.8911)

229.3958

(0.0740)

4638.434

(0.0000)

151.9791

(0.0000)

Δ Gravity

(p-value)

-192057.6

(0.0000)

-374069.5

(0.0000)

-62338.24

(0.0000)

-84463.49

(0.0011)

32246.77

(0.0000)

n

16,403 16,403 16,403 16,403 16,403

R2 0.256667

0.149506 0.261548 0.435712 0.331153

User-Friendly Interpretation

• Negative signs indicate lottery sales decline as a casino becomes closer to that zip code

• Coefficients difficult to give meaningful interpretation because it’s panel data – lots of zip codes, 56 periods

• Consider the “average” Maryland zip code from our data – In July 2009, average distance to closest casino was 75

min. – Next we calculate what a casino in closer proximity

does to lottery sales


Figure 12. Estimated impact of new casino opening on Δ Sales in the “average” zip code (% impacts)


Casino-specific effects

• We next model the incremental impact on the lottery from each casino individually

• Model is again run for each type of lottery game

• For interpretation, results are presented in terms of the impact on lottery in the average zip code

– Relative to the closest casino being 75 min. travel time

– Impacts again shown in percentage terms


Figure 14. Estimated impact of Hollywood Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

(% impacts)


Figure 16. Estimated impact of Ocean Downs Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

(% impacts)


Figure 18. Estimated impact of Maryland Live Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

(% impacts)


Figure 20. Estimated impact of Rocky Gap Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

(% impacts)


Discussion of casinos’ incremental effects

• Rocky Gap results are interesting – positive impacts – Likely due to being in narrow part of state, attracting

many customers from PA and WV – Not much post-opening data?

• Hollywood has a positive impact on Instant games – “Border” facility, like Rocky Gap?

• Ocean Downs has large negative impact on Multi-State games – Simply bad timing?


Dollar impacts of casinos on lottery

• Two methods:

– First, we estimate the “aggregate” dollar impacts of Maryland casinos on lottery sales

– Results are relative to the most recent full 12 months of sales for which we have data

• March 2013 to February 2014

– Second, develop estimates based on “incre-mental” casino effects


Calculations for “aggregate” model

• Estimates rely on results from Table 12

– Calculation: Δ Gravity from first to last month of sample, multiplied by coefficient estimate for Δ Gravity from Table 12

– Result: Change in monthly lottery sales due to the changes in gravity occurring as MD casinos open

• We translate the result into annual terms

• Overall estimated impact: -$44.1 mn per year, or 2.53% of annual sales


Table 15. Aggregate Model: Estimated annual impact of all Maryland casinos on lottery sales ($ millions)



Total, All

Games

Actual Last Year Sales (3/2013 – 2/2014) $471.2 $472.5 $515.3 $223.2 $58.63 $1,740.8

Estimated Casino Impact ($12.44) ($24.24) ($4.04) ($5.47) $2.09 ($44.10)

-2.64% -5.13% -0.78% -2.45% 3.56% -2.53%

95% Confidence Interval, Lower Bound ($14.81) ($28.58) ($5.93) ($8.76) $1.58 ($56.48)

-3.14% -6.04% -1.15% -3.92% 2.69% -3.24%

95% Confidence Interval, Upper Bound ($10.08) ($19.91) ($2.14) ($2.19) $2.60 ($31.72)

-2.14% -4.21% -0.42% -0.98% 4.44% -1.82%

Calculations for “incremental” effects model

• Using this model we estimate effect of each casino on each type of lottery game – Calculation: Δ Gravity effect plus the incremental

impact of each casino

– Result: Change in monthly lottery sales due to the changes in gravity occurring as MD casinos open • Show result in annual terms

• Overall estimated impact: -$50.1 mn per year, or 2.88% of annual sales – $44 mn of this impact from Maryland Live


Table 16. “Incremental” Model: Estimated annual impacts of individual Maryland casinos on lottery sales

($ millions)



Total, All

Games

Actual Last Year Sales (3/2013 – 2/2014) $471.2 $472.5 $515.3 $223.2 $58.63 $1,740.8

Hollywood Casino Impact $2.56 ($3.01) ($0.86) ($1.51) ($0.16) ($2.98)

0.54% -0.64% -0.17% -0.68% -0.27% -0.17%

Ocean Downs Impact ($0.66) ($2.11) ($0.51) ($1.17) $0.11 ($4.55)

-0.14% -0.45% -0.10% -0.52% 0.18% -0.26%

Maryland Live Impact ($13.99) ($20.03) ($3.83) ($9.29) $2.90 ($44.24)

-2.97% -4.24% -0.74% -4.16% 4.95% -2.54%

Rocky Gap Impact $0.30 $0.61 $0.04 $0.58 $0.16 $1.70

0.06% 0.13% 0.01% 0.26% 0.28% 0.10%

Total Estimated Impacts ($11.78) ($24.54) ($5.16) ($11.39) $2.80 ($50.07)

-2.50% -5.19% -1.00% -5.10% 4.77% -2.88%

Projections of new casinos’ impacts


• We recalculated Δ Gravity assuming new casinos were open – Horseshoe Casino, Baltimore (opening August 2014) – MGM at National Harbor (expected to open in summer 2016)

• First estimated using “aggregate” results (Table 12) – Implicitly assumes each new casino acts like the average of the

four existing casinos

• Then estimated assuming incremental effects of Maryland Live – More realistic assumption: new casinos located in populous

areas

• Results are shown assuming Maryland Live effects

• Total impacts of Horseshoe and MGM: -$45.4 mn per year

October 22, 2014

Table 17. Forecasted annual impact of Horseshoe Casino, Baltimore on lottery sales ($ millions)



Total, All Games

Actual Last Year

Sales (3/2013 –

2/2014)

$471.2 $472.5 $515.3 $223.2 $58.63 $1,740.8

Estimated Impact ($8.45) ($12.09) ($2.32) ($5.61) $1.75 ($26.72)

-1.79% -2.56% -0.45% -2.51% 2.99% -1.53%

95% Confidence

Interval, Lower

Bound

($9.75) ($14.47) ($3.36) ($7.41) $1.47 ($33.50)

-2.07% -3.06% -0.65% -3.32% 2.51% -1.92%

95% Confidence

Interval,

Upper Bound

($7.16) ($9.72) ($1.28) ($3.81) $2.03 ($19.93)

-1.52% -2.06% -0.25% -1.71% 3.47% -1.15%

Table 18. Forecasted annual impact of MGM National Harbor Casino on lottery sales ($ millions)



Total, All Games

Actual Last Year Sales

(3/2013 – 2/2014)

$471.2 $472.5 $515.3 $223.2 $58.63 $1,740.8


-1.25% -1.79% -0.31% -1.75% 2.09% -1.07%

95% Confidence

Interval, Lower Bound

($6.81) ($10.10) ($2.34) ($5.17) $1.03 ($23.40)

-1.44% -2.14% -0.45% -2.32% 1.75% -1.34%

95% Confidence

Interval, Upper Bound

($4.99) ($6.79) ($0.89) ($2.66) $1.42 ($13.92)

-1.06% -1.44% -0.17% -1.19% 2.42% -0.80%

Table 19. Forecasted annual impact of Horseshoe Casino (Baltimore) and MGM National Harbor Casino on lottery sales ($ millions)



Total, All Games

Actual Last Year

Sales (3/2013 –

2/2014)

$471.2 $472.5 $515.3 $223.2 $58.63 $1,740.8


-3.05% -4.35% -0.76% -4.27% 5.07% -2.61%

95% Confidence

Interval, Lower Bound

($16.55) ($24.57) ($5.70) ($12.58) $2.50 ($56.90)

-3.51% -5.20% -1.11% -5.64% 4.26% -3.27%

95% Confidence

Interval,

Upper Bound

($12.16) ($16.51) ($2.17) ($6.47) $3.45 ($33.85)

-2.58% -3.49% -0.42% -2.90% 5.89% -1.94%

Conclusion

• This is the first study that has analyzed proximity as a factor in the impacts of casinos on lottery sales – Results indicate that casino proximity is

important

• Using lottery data from July 2009 through February 2014… – Existing 4 casinos are estimated to have a negative

impact on lottery sales of 2.88%, or -$50.1 mn annually, in their first year(s)


Conclusion

• Estimated annual effects of current casinos, by game type:

Monitor - 5.1% -$24.2 mn

Instant - 2.6% -$12.4 mn

Multi-State - 2.4% -$5.5 mn

Pick - 0.8% -$4.0 mn

Other +3.6% +$2.1 mn


Conclusion

• Horseshoe Casino, Baltimore is expected to cause a decline in lottery sales of 1.53%, or -$26.7 mn

• MGM National Harbor is expected to cause a decline in lottery sales of 1.07%, or -$18.7 mn

• Total annual effect of all 6 casinos is estimated to be -$95.5 mn, or about -5.5% – Forecast for future assumes no other significant

changes



Will Cummings 781-641-1215 [email protected] Doug Walker 843-953-8192 [email protected]


Presentation to the Maryland Department of Budget and Management et al.

August 15, 2014

Cummings Associates and Casinonomics Consulting


Additional Slides

for DBM et al.

Figure 3. Total monthly sales, all Maryland lottery games


Table 3. Summary of inter-industry relationships


1 Model Variable

Casino Dog racing

Horse racing

Lottery

Casino – + – Dog racing (–) – + Horse racing + – + Lottery – + + Indian square footage + (+) + –

Note: ( ) indicates statistically insignificant at normal levels. 2 Source: Walker and Jackson (2008, 325) 3

October 22, 2014

Table 4. Zip codes in casino-hosting “counties”


Casino/County Opening Date

Zip Codes in County with Lottery Agents

Zip Codes in County without Lottery Agents

Hollywood Casino Cecil County

August 28, 2010 21901, 21903, 21904, 21911, 21913, 21914,

21915, 21918, 21919, 21921

21912, 21917, 21922

Ocean Downs Casino Worcester County

January 1, 2011 21811, 21841, 21842, 21851, 21862, 21863,

21864, 21872

21813, 21829

Maryland Live Casino Zip codes within 15 min. (Anne A. & Howard Cos.)

June 5, 2012 20701, 20755, 21061, 21075, 21076, 21108, 21144

21077

Rocky Gap Casino Allegany County

May 21, 2013 21502, 21529, 21530, 21532, 21539, 21545, 21557, 21562, 21766

21504, 21521, 21540, 21543, 21555, 21560

October 22, 2014

Table 9. Frederick County (control county) lottery sales




11 months previous $13,365,000 $9,823,518 $5,591,123 $6,372,860 $1,380,117

11 months after $13,868,700 $9,881,664 $5,395,391 $6,972,799 $1,618,643

Change 3.8% 0.6% -3.5% 9.4% 17.3%

6 months previous $7,707,900 $5,603,008 $3,100,711 $4,185,756 $736,859

6 months after $7,933,200 $5,554,857 $2,964,674 $3,725,296 $934,779

Change 2.9% -0.9% -4.4% -11.0% 26.9%

Last Qtr Cal 11 $3,916,500 $2,642,815 $1,561,708 $1,445,633 $354,164

Last Qtr Cal 13 $3,749,700 $2,237,859 $1,517,492 $2,096,879 $421,096

Change -4.3% -15.3% -2.8% 45.0% 18.9%

October 22, 2014

Table 10. Saint Mary’s County (control county) lottery sales




11 months previous $8,603,700 $15,043,407 $7,912,718 $3,032,881 $622,106

11 months after $9,280,200 $13,283,523 $8,151,507 $3,422,022 $804,493

Change 7.9% -11.7% 3.0% 12.8% 29.3%

6 months previous $9,280,200 $13,283,523 $8,151,507 $3,422,022 $804,493

6 months after $4,992,300 $7,277,440 $4,463,307 $1,843,840 $446,131

Change -4.7% -17.3% 1.5% -9.3% 32.6%

Last Qtr Cal 11 $2,410,200 $4,327,813 $2,267,722 $663,065 $161,330

Last Qtr Cal 13 $2,305,800 $3,745,910 $2,299,609 $1,077,020 $201,260

Change -4.3% -13.4% 1.4% 62.4% 24.8%

October 22, 2014

The model

• Explanatory variables:

– “change in Gravity” (Δ Gravity) over the same month the year before

• “Gravity” = 1/travel time

– Zip code “fixed effects”

– Time period “fixed effects”

• The model:


Δ Sales$i,t = Constant + Δ Gravityi,t + εi,t

(Constant = Zip fixed effects + Time fixed effects)

October 22, 2014

Table 13. Estimated impact of new casino opening on Δ Sales in the “average” zip code


Game

Zip Code Average Monthly

Sales

Effect of new casino on game sales, by travel time to new casino

15 mins. 30 mins. 60 mins.

Instant $106,788 -$8,169 (-7.65%)

-$3,063 (-2.87%)

-$510 (-0.48%)

Monitor $109,922 -$19,547 (-17.78%)

-$7,330 (-6.67%)

-$1,222 (-1.11%)

Pick $114,261 -$3,036 (-2.66%)

-$1,139 (-1.00%)

-$189 (-0.17%)

Multi-State $40,263 -$3,831 (-9.51%)

-$1,437 (-3.57%)

-$239 (-0.59%)

Other $11,950 $1,443 (+12.08%)

$541 (+4.53%)

$90 (+0.75%)

TOTALS $383,184 -$33,140 (-8.64%)

-$12,427 (-3.24%)

-$2,071 (-0.54%)

Notes: Averages include periods and zips for which there were no sales of specific types of games. 1

Totals may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding. 2

October 22, 2014

Table 14. Individual casino effects regression results


Instant

Monitor Pick Multi-State Other

Constanta

(p-value) 324.3198 (0.0441)

143.7875 (0.6255)

231.4323 (0.0734)

4623.083 (0.0000)

133.4178 (0.0001)

Δ Gravity (p-value)

176530.8 (0.0101)

-115387.4 (0.3579)

-89540.64 (0.1040)

-503502.4 (0.0000)

15421.26 (0.2992)

Hollywood * Δ Gravity (p-value)

1670.494 (0.9799)

23749.84 (0.8451)

59053.34 (0.2681)

340222.0 (0.0002)

-37497.83 (0.0091)

Ocean Downs * Δ Gravity (p-value)

-255045.4 (0.0000)

-300564.1 (0.0026)

-8164.244 (0.8521)

189429.4 (0.0124)

-12118.72 (0.3048)

Maryland Live * Δ Gravity (p-value)

-499072.3 (0.0000)

-425814.5 (0.0011)

-10469.12 (0.8544)

293565.5 (0.0030)

58821.48 (0.0001)

Rocky Gap * Δ Gravity (p-value)

-37755.14 (0.5495)

347822.6 (0.0026)

133269.8 (0.0085)

723012.8 (0.0000)

16916.21 (0.2152)

R2 0.259349 0.151599 0.261921 0.438157 0.336323

a The constant coefficients reported are the average of the fixed effects coefficients in the regression.

October 22, 2014

Figure 11. Estimated impact of new casino opening on Δ Sales in the “average” zip code ($ impacts)


Figure 13. Estimated impact of Hollywood Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

($ impacts)


Figure 15. Estimated impact of Ocean Downs Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

($ impacts)


Figure 17. Estimated impact of Maryland Live Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

($ impacts)


Figure 19. Estimated impact of Rocky Gap Casino’s opening on Δ Sales in the average zip code, relative to the nearest casino being 75 min. away

($ impacts)


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