How Change Happens

Lecture given by Duncan Green

Head of Research at Oxfam GB

Notre Dame University, September 2009

Part of a series of From Poverty to Power lectures.

There is nothing

permanent except change

Heraclitus 6th Century BC

“”

A famous example:

The abolition of slaveryHalf a million African slaves

work on the sugar

plantations of British

colonies

British Parliament bans the

slave trade

Slavery banned altogether:

800,000 slaves of the

British Empire win their

freedom

1780

1807

1838

Dynamics of Change

Waves of slave rebellion in America and Caribbean Haiti becomes first independent black republic in 1804

Individuals and Coalitions

The Anglican preacher Thomas Clarkson, MP William Wilberforce, Olaudah Equiano(ex slave). The Quakers build theabolitionist movement – the firstmodern campaign

Britain at war with France, where Napoleonreintroduces slavery and oppose Haiti’sindependence; opposing slavery becomes part of war effort.

Some initial conclusions

Many factors combine in any given change

Path dependence – one change triggers

another

Coalitions and alliances (especially

insider/outsider) can play crucial role

External shocks (eg wars) often catalysts of

change

4 components of change

Context– Technology, environment, demography,

globalization

Institutions– Culture, ethnicity, religion, attitudes and beliefs

– Civil Service, judiciary, electoral democracy, essential services,

Agents– Social Movements, elites, political leaders, private

sector, media

Events– Conflicts, natural disasters, political and economic

crises

Dynamics and pathways

Cumulative and

SequentialChaotic

Events, tipping

points and

lightbulb

moments

Demonstration

effects

Path dependence

Accumulation of

forces

How Change Happens:

The Chiquitanos

How Change Happens:

The Chiquitanos

3 July 2007: The Chiquitanos win rights to 1 million hectares of traditional lands in Eastern Bolivia

Until 1980 they lived in semi-feudal conditions

How did it happen?

Components of change

Context: Economic Crisis in the 1980s, leading to structural adjustment, rising inequality and crisis of legitimacy for traditional parties and trade unions

Institutions: rise of indigenous identity; decentralization and agrarian reform

Agents: New generation of indigenous leaders; ex-miners arrive in Sta Cruz

Events: ‘lightbulb moments’ - breaking into the mayor’s office; marching to La Paz; the election of Evo Morales

Dynamics of change

‘Historical memory’ of colonialism and repression,

but also of the 1952 revolucion

Slow legal processes and move into formal

politics, but punctuated by political moments and

events

Importance of alliances with altiplano Indians

‘Water wars’ and the fall of presidents lead to

election of Evo Morales 2005

Is change predictable?

Non-linear change = non-elephant animals at the

zoo (weather, stock markets, social unrest)

Planners v searchers

Evolutionary change: differentiate/select/amplify a

good model, but works better for markets than

society

Possible non-linear models of change for ’change

agents’:

– Solidarity

– Venture Capitalism

– US Marines (Afghan Solidarity Programme)

Final thoughts: Some problems with current thinking on change

We fail to grasp or respond to the impact of shocks

as generators of sudden change

Focus on ‘above the waterline’ issues such as

policies and laws, at the expense of attitudes, beliefs

and relationships

Reject (rather than understand/engage with)

technology

Further Reading from the Blog

The Global Crisis and technology long waves,

www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=293

Building women’s leadership: what works?,

www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=262

What can Economics learn from Evolutionary

theory? www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=115

Shocks and Change,

www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=8

Further Reading

From Poverty to Power, Annex on How Change

Happens, http://www.oxfam.org/fp2p

How Change Happens, Roman Kznaric

DFID’s Drivers of Change website,

www.gsdrc.org/go/topic-guides/drivers-of-change