how do you know whether to believe the model forecast? unmasking the black box stephen...
TRANSCRIPT
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How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box
Stephen Jascourt* UCAR/COMET at NWS HeadquartersBill Bua UCAR/COMET at NCEPGreg Byrd UCAR/COMET at UCAR
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How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast?
Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007
Fire weather danger over northeast Nevada?
NOAA/NCEP
NAM 48-h forecast at Elko, NV SREF 48-h probability [no precip, RH<20%,wind>20MPH,T>60F]
RH? Forecast T, mixing
depth
X Elko
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How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast?
Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007
Position, strength of lakes cut-off? Frost potential?
GFS ensembles 72 h valid 00Z 11 Oct500 hPa 558 dm
NOAA/NCEP
NOAA/NCEP
NOAA/NCEP
NOAA/NCEP
2-m T oC 84 h valid 12Z Oct 11
NAM
GFS
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UNMASKING THE BLACK BOX
8 years of NWP training
Navigation, how to find it1. MetEd site2. Operational Models Matrix
• Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models• NWP Course (conceptual background)• Model-specific information• Forums• Ensemble module
3. Case examples – what happened, why4. VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases5. COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases6. Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases
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NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu
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NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NWP COURSENavigationpanel Content panel
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
Content is updated as models change!
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MODEL-SPECIFIC CONTENT
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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NAVIGATION Discussion forums
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NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
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MODULES Ensemble Forecasting ExplainedNavigationpanel Content panel
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NAVIGATION Cases
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/
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CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis
Navigation panel Content panel
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CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis
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CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis
5-10 oC coolerthan first guess
nearly sameas first guess
Smooths out changesto first guess
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NAVIGATION VISITview Teletraining http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html
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VISIT SESSIONS NAM-WRF Update and Performance Discussion Lake-effect heavy snow, why good forecast?
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NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu
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WEBCASTS Using the WRF Mesoscale Model [AFWA]
Lots of data shown, user challenged to explain, predict, and verify during the module
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WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model
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WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF ModelModel change summary and forecast impacts
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WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF ModelPrecipitation type algorithm change: affects diagnosed type
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WEBCASTS Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
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SEASONAL TRAINING Convective Parameterization“Convective Weather Refresher” under “Convective Weather” topic on MetEd home page
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SUMMARY
8 years of NWP training
Navigation, how to find itStart: MetEd site www.meted.ucar.edu
Register (free), log inSelect NWP under TOPICSOperational Models Matrix (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/)
• Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models• NWP Course (conceptual background)• Model-specific information• Forums• Ensemble module
Case examples (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/)COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, casesSeasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases, content
VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html