Robert HensonRobert HensonUCAR CommunicationsUCAR Communicationsbhenson@ucar.edubhenson@ucar.edu

AMS Short Course:AMS Short Course:Covering Climate Change ScienceCovering Climate Change Science21 June 200921 June 2009

Tomorrow’s climate: a look backTomorrow’s climate: a look back

How weathercasters How weathercasters and reporters have and reporters have covered climatecovered climatesince 1950since 1950

The ultimate “station scientist” challengeThe ultimate “station scientist” challenge

• • limited timelimited time

• • perceived lack of authorityperceived lack of authority

• • insufficient informationinsufficient information

• • insufficient support frominsufficient support from station managers station managers

• • personal skepticism aboutpersonal skepticism about climate change climate change

Some factors in the mix . . .Some factors in the mix . . .

Many weathercasters say Many weathercasters say little or nothinglittle or nothing about climate change. about climate change.Some are Some are vocal contrariansvocal contrarians..

Others talk about the Others talk about the mainstream science and its implicationsmainstream science and its implications..

This may sound familiar . . .This may sound familiar . . .

““Was this past mild winter Was this past mild winter just part of ajust part of anatural cycle?. . . natural cycle?. . . Is the warming-up Is the warming-up process worldwide or process worldwide or merely regional?”merely regional?”

““Is the WorldIs the WorldGetting Warmer?”Getting Warmer?”Saturday Evening PostSaturday Evening PostJuly 1, 1950July 1, 1950

Science and weathercastingScience and weathercasting

Late 1940s and early 1950s:Late 1940s and early 1950s: Early broadcast Early broadcast meteorologists call on meteorologists call on cartoons and other cartoons and other techniques they used in techniques they used in World War II flight training. World War II flight training.

As they present tomorrow’s As they present tomorrow’s forecast, they also teach forecast, they also teach the public the public how weather how weather works.works.

(Courtesy Roger Turner.)(Courtesy Roger Turner.)

Science and weathercastingScience and weathercasting

““The visual style of TV The visual style of TV weather evolved from weather evolved from mating wartime mating wartime educational practices educational practices with synoptic maps . . . with synoptic maps . . . under the constraints under the constraints of low-resolution TV of low-resolution TV screens.”screens.”

Roger Turner, University of Pennsylvania doctoral student in history of science

Late 1940s and early 1950s:Late 1940s and early 1950s: Early broadcast Early broadcast meteorologists call on meteorologists call on cartoons and other cartoons and other techniques they used in techniques they used in World War II flight training. World War II flight training.

As they present tomorrow’s As they present tomorrow’s forecast, they also teach forecast, they also teach the public the public how weather how weather works.works.

Enter the entertainersEnter the entertainers

Mid-1950s:Mid-1950s: Puppets, Puppets, clowns, and clowns, and “weathergirls” threaten “weathergirls” threaten the scientific aspirations the scientific aspirations of broadcast of broadcast meteorologists.meteorologists.

Jan Crockett, WABC (New York), models an outfit Jan Crockett, WABC (New York), models an outfit appropriate for Indian summer while playing the ukelele. appropriate for Indian summer while playing the ukelele. ((Vogue Pattern Book,Vogue Pattern Book, 1962, p. 57. Image courtesy Roger 1962, p. 57. Image courtesy Roger Turner.)Turner.)

The AMS respondsThe AMS responds

Mid- to late 1950s:Mid- to late 1950s: The The AMS develops its Seal of AMS develops its Seal of Approval program, Approval program, introduced in 1959.introduced in 1959.

““We think the weather should be discussed with dignity. Dignity, not dullness. We think many TV ‘weathermen’ make a caricature of what is essentially a serious and scientific occupation.”

Francis Davis, “Weather Is No Laughing Matter?”TV Guide (23 July 1955), 10.

Professionalizing the fieldProfessionalizing the field

1960s and 1970s:1960s and 1970s: The growth of the The growth of the AMS Seal helps AMS Seal helps keep science-keep science-based approaches based approaches to weathercasting to weathercasting alive in the face of alive in the face of “happy news”“happy news”

Still, there’s Still, there’s little little discussion of discussion of climateclimate per se. per se.

Fred Gadomski, “Weather World,” early 1980s. (Photo courtesy Fred Gadomski, “Weather World,” early 1980s. (Photo courtesy Paul Knight, Penn State.)Paul Knight, Penn State.)

The great global cooling scareThe great global cooling scare

“Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.”

TIME magazineJune 24, 1974

There was more to the story . . .There was more to the story . . .

“. . . a strong case can be made that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide.”

“Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?” W.S. Broecker, Science 189, 460 (1975)

““The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,” Consensus,” Bulletin of the American Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89Meteorological Society 89 (September 2008), (September 2008), 1325–1337.1325–1337.

Although the 1970s cooling got a lot of press, the bulk of climate Although the 1970s cooling got a lot of press, the bulk of climate scientists were more concerned about scientists were more concerned about warmingwarming than cooling. than cooling.

Technology arrivesTechnology arrives

1980s into 1990s:1980s into 1990s: The advent of computerized graphics The advent of computerized graphics transforms the look of TV weather—and strengthens the transforms the look of TV weather—and strengthens the role of broadcast meteorologists as sci-tech experts.role of broadcast meteorologists as sci-tech experts.

Weather Channel graphics, circa 1995.Weather Channel graphics, circa 1995.(Photos courtesy TWC.)(Photos courtesy TWC.)

Jim Hansen testifies before Congress on June 23, 1988, with record

heat in D.C., drought along the Mississippi, and forest fires in the west:

“99% confidence” that long-term warming under way; greenhouse gases probably to blame.

Media frenzy ensues; global warming becomes a household phrase.

1988: Firestorm1988: Firestorm

Concern is bipartisanConcern is bipartisan

“Those who think we are powerless to do anything about the greenhouse effect forget about the ‘White House effect.’ ”

George H.W. Bush, on the campaign trailAugust 1988

Concern is bipartisanConcern is bipartisan

“. . . We have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with thesystem of the planetitself. ”

Margaret Thatcher,British prime minister,speaking to UK Royal SocietySeptember 27, 1988

Too hot to handle?Too hot to handle?During the 1990s, TV weathercasters areDuring the 1990s, TV weathercasters are

largely silentlargely silent about climate change. about climate change.

“It will be interesting to see what television does as weather loses its innocence. . . .

The happy atmosphere of the weather report will be difficult to maintain, for the weather can no longer serve as a haven from [human] history.”

Jay Rosen, “Don’t Need a Weatherman?”Harper’s Magazine (April 1989), 35.

1990s: “Dueling scientists” take over the 1990s: “Dueling scientists” take over the climate-change dialogue. Why?climate-change dialogue. Why?

• Journalism’s roots in political reporting

• Industry lobbying

• Weather coverage that pushes a single cause and effect (“yes, it is” vs. “no, it isn’t”)

The White House summitThe White House summit

“ ‘I don't ask for you to advocate or do anything outside of whatever your own convictions are,’’ Mr. Clinton said this afternoon, as the skies cleared and the East Room brightened.”

““Clinton Nudges TV Weather Forecasters on Warming,”Clinton Nudges TV Weather Forecasters on Warming,”New York Times, 2 October 1997New York Times, 2 October 1997

Many weathercasters Many weathercasters address the topic on air address the topic on air for the first time—for the first time—but not everyone takes but not everyone takes an identical message to an identical message to viewers.viewers.

October 1997:October 1997: More than 100 weathercasters trek to More than 100 weathercasters trek to the White House to meet with Bill Clinton and Al the White House to meet with Bill Clinton and Al

Gore and get briefed on climate change. Gore and get briefed on climate change.

The White House summitThe White House summit

“Some were careful to distance themselves from the White House's arguments. Global warming is ‘a theory that is widely accepted, but it's still under debate in the scientific community,’ Cecily Tynan told viewers of WPVI in Philadelphia.”

““Clinton Nudges TV Weather Forecasters on Warming,”Clinton Nudges TV Weather Forecasters on Warming,”New York Times, 2 October 1997New York Times, 2 October 1997

October 1997:October 1997: More than 100 weathercasters trek to More than 100 weathercasters trek to the White House to meet with Bill Clinton and Al the White House to meet with Bill Clinton and Al

Gore and get briefed on climate change. Gore and get briefed on climate change.

Many weathercasters Many weathercasters address the topic on air address the topic on air for the first time—for the first time—but not everyone takes but not everyone takes an identical message to an identical message to viewers.viewers.

Early 2000s: Yesterday’s news?Early 2000s: Yesterday’s news?

• National concerns shift after 9/11 attacks, Mideast wars • Energy remains relatively cheap

• No immediate climate catastrophe

Four years, four big eventsFour years, four big events

2003: 2003: the Euro the Euro heat waveheat waveEuropeans newly Europeans newly motivated to motivated to address climate address climate changechange

2004: 2004: TheTheDay after Day after TomorrowTomorrowPublic interest Public interest spikes—but will spikes—but will it last?it last?

2006: 2006: An An Inconvenient Inconvenient TruthTruthGore’s landmark Gore’s landmark film and book puts film and book puts global warming in global warming in a new spotlighta new spotlight

2005: 2005: KatrinaKatrinaAlong with fresh Along with fresh research, it research, it brought climate-brought climate-change risks change risks home to manyhome to many

2005–06: a major shift2005–06: a major shiftin US mediain US media

TWC’s “100 Biggest Weather Moments” series (April 2007):

“global warming” ranks #1

The Weather ChannelThe Weather Channeltakes some big stepstakes some big steps

The evolution of TWC’s position The evolution of TWC’s position statements on climate changestatements on climate change

August 2001:August 2001: “. . . it “. . . it is likely that is likely that at least some of the at least some of the current warmingcurrent warming is a result of human activities.” is a result of human activities.”

December 2003:December 2003: there is “strong evidence that there is “strong evidence that a a significant portion of the current warmingsignificant portion of the current warming is a is a result of human activities.”result of human activities.”

December 2005 and today:December 2005 and today: there is “strong there is “strong evidence that evidence that the majority of the warming over the majority of the warming over the past centurythe past century is a result of human activities.” is a result of human activities.”

Growth of AMS Station Scientist programGrowth of AMS Station Scientist program(including workshops like this one!)(including workshops like this one!)

Local weathercasters and climate change:Local weathercasters and climate change:what’s new?what’s new?

Local weathercasters and climate change:Local weathercasters and climate change:what’s new?what’s new?

Blogs and other online resourcesBlogs and other online resources

A tremendousA tremendousway to deliver way to deliver enhancedenhancedclimate-change climate-change background to background to viewers while viewers while adding a personal adding a personal touchtouch

Online tools for continuing educationOnline tools for continuing education

The COMET/NEEF The COMET/NEEF distance learning course distance learning course “Climate Change: Fitting “Climate Change: Fitting the Pieces Together,” the Pieces Together,” designed for broadcast designed for broadcast mets, debuted in May.mets, debuted in May.

See:See:meted.ucar.edumeted.ucar.edu

Also from NEEF:Also from NEEF:www.earthgauge.net

Local weathercasters and climate change:Local weathercasters and climate change:what’s new?what’s new?

Enjoy the conference!Enjoy the conference!

For a wide variety of resources, seeFor a wide variety of resources, seeUCAR’s website for broadcast meteorologists:UCAR’s website for broadcast meteorologists:

www.ucar.edu/news/journalists/AMSsurvey08.jspwww.ucar.edu/news/journalists/AMSsurvey08.jsp

Enjoy the conference!Enjoy the conference!

For a wide variety of resources, seeFor a wide variety of resources, seeUCAR’s website for broadcast meteorologists:UCAR’s website for broadcast meteorologists:

www.ucar.edu/news/journalists/AMSsurvey08.jspwww.ucar.edu/news/journalists/AMSsurvey08.jsp