how does the australian bureau of meteorology assess and

How does the Australian Bureau of Meteorology assess and forecast hazard impact?

Grace Legge

Extreme Weather Desk

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)

Photos: Chris Kent BoM NT Meteorologist

@chriskentphotography

Outline

• The Journey

• National Hazard Outlook

• Case studies

• Challenges and changes

Current Warnings

The Journey

Content in many of the following slides courtesy of :• Dr Adam Morgan – Frontline

Communication• Phillip King – Retired Manager

Extreme Weather Desk

The Journey

To understand the development it helps to understand the journey• Significant Weather Outlook• Place Hazard Risk Assessment at core of

operations• Produce a graphical impact/probability

based service• Take methodology/design inspiration from:

o Existing regional severe weather outlooks

o UK Met Office warning impact tableso WMO Guidelines

• Post Event Review Management

The Journey

• Structured hazard risk assessment

• Placing hazard risk assessment at the core of EWD operations

EWD staff resource planning

Significant Weather Outlook

BNOC morning briefing

EWD video briefings

National surge arrangements

Event-based data collection

National media/videos

Post-event reports

Daily Hazard Risk

Assessment

The journey

Future

Ensembles

Hazard impact modelling

Multi-agency collaboration

Now

• Some consideration in warnings of vulnerability to hazards

• We think we can do something structured and worthwhile in the meantime

ABS dataGA data

?

• Impact/probability-based ‘Heads Up’ communication tool for contingency and resource planning

Current Existing Regional Severe Weather Outlooks

UK Met Office Warning Impact Tables

UK Met office page:https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/severe-weather-advice#Rain

• Provide impact tables of Hazards such as rain, thunderstorms, wind, snow, lightning, ice, fog

• Account for hazards in space and time using definitions such as:• Localised: there will be a few instances of the impact across the

warning area

• Widespread: impacts are expected to be experienced across much of the warning area

• Prolonged: impacts could persist for several days

• Short-lived or short-term: impacts could last for a few hours

• Provide a generalised impact table

UK Met Office Warning Impact Tables

UK Met office page:https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/severe-weather-advice#Rain

• Wind Impacts• Rain Impacts

Post Event Review Management (PERM)

• Issues with previous event reporting:• Ad-hoc with no structure or trigger to when to review.• States had different formats• Didn't always create them in a timely manner.

• Could we create a generalized hazard tables and use it as a trigger point for PERM?

Outlooks

Outlook over warnings to begin

Partner with Department of Home Affairs Crisis Coordination Centre (CCC), interior ministry with responsibilities for national security, law enforcement, emergency management

Takes into account the vulnerability of the following to a specified hazard:- Life- Property- Delivery of services/utilities- Emergency services demand- Transport- Day-to-day activities- Agriculture- Land and vegetation.

Also looks at population and spatial exposure as well as duration of the hazard.

Impact rubrics - Community

Looks at the impact on our operations due to a hazard.

Takes into account:- Warning services and needs- Bureau staffing requirements- Liaison- Media

Impact Rubrics - Operations

Looks at the probability of the hazard.

Takes into account:

- Model guidance and consistency- Forecast period- Other scenarios

Hazard Rubric - Probability

Hazard Summary

National Hazard Outlook

Daily breakdown of the next four days

Summary of the following few days

Hazard risk key

Hazard map

National Hazard Outlook – Daily breakdowns

Risk matrix

Detailed impacts

National Hazard Impact and Risk Assessment

• National Hazard Outlook –Community

• National Hazard Outlook –Operations

Impact probability-based

communication strategy.

Contingency planning

Flexible resourcing strategy.

Monitoring, assessing and communicating

Post Event Review Management

(PERM)

BEFORE DURING AFTER

• Operational impact ratings and tiered structure for resource allocation.

• Planned response to impacts whilst maintaining agility.

• Hazard impact assessment embedded within PERM procedures.

• Lessons learnt incorporated into culture.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus –

March 2018

National Hazard Impact and Risk Assessment - Before

Community Impact Operational Impact Hazard Probability


Impact-probability-based matrix: • Graphical product, Days 1-4 plus

outlook 5-7, issued every day, in

partnership with states.

• Designed for internal and national

emergency services use; suitable for

development into a public product.

• A structured and consistent record of

how potential hazards were assessed.




BEFORE





BEFORE

Community Impact

Hazard Probability

Impact-probability-based matrix:

CC

C

National Hazard Community ImpactTropical Cyclone Marcus




BEFORE

• A: Riverine flooding

• B: Severe fire weather

• C: Tropical Low/ Possible

Cyclone

• D: Heavy rainfall

C: Tropical Low/ Possible Tropical Cyclone

• Schools and business likely to be closed.

• Widespread tree damage causing damage to

properties and powerlines.

• Power outages likely for long durations.

• High demand for emergency services

• Impacts to Darwin (population over 100,000)

National Hazard Operational ImpactTropical Cyclone Marcus




BEFORE

A: Riverine flooding

B: Severe fire weather

C: Possible Tropical Cyclone

D: Heavy rainfall

C: Tropical Low/ Possible Tropical Cyclone

• High risk of TC in the Arafura Sea from Friday

• Populated Areas, TC - Coastal impacts with

hourly warnings possible.

• Additional staff required.

• Increased media and briefings, covered nationally

by EWD.

D


Ensure consistency with

regional forecast policy :

• Chat room - jabber




BEFORE


Ensure consistency with

regional forecast policy :

• Chat room - jabber

• Collaboration tool - allows

regional forecasters to

modify product overnight




BEFORE

• Users in other offices can see edits in real time

Flexible resourcing strategy

DURING



Level of Operations Operational Activities

Level 1 � Aware.� Routine Operations, low-end warnings still possible.

Level 2 � Busy shift, but largely routine and local operations. Extra staff may be required.� National contingency and media messaging possible. � Local media and support as required, press conference possible.� Severe weather video possible.

Level 3 � Surge Operations, local and/or national staff required including both remote and/or fly in surge.

� Routine National Contingency planning and messaging ongoing.� Executive and Government briefings.� Continuous Media, Multi Agency Press conference likely.� Daily Severe weather videos.

Level 4 � Prolonged Surge Operations, “All Bureau Response”.� Daily National Contingency planning and messaging.� Executive and Government briefings. � Continuous Media, Multi Agency press conference (with Premier)� Multiple Severe weather videos each day.

• Use operational impact ratings and Tiered Structure for resource allocation

• Plan response to impacts and maintain team agility

National Contingency Meetings

DURING



• Use operational impact ratings and Tiered Structure for resource allocation

• Plan response to impacts and maintain team agility

A daily standup this week to discuss the upcoming weather (TC/low off SE QLD, active monsoon/potential TC's across the north and strong front over the SE during the weekend).

Could State Managers / SupMets and MACMs from affected States please attend to have input. (If WA come into line for impact or providing surge support the meeting time will be moved to accommodate time zones).

CMR 558947 Pin 2662.

Suggested run sheet.

Key messages from affected state's (2mins each)

Climate context (2 mins)

Media plans (2 mins each)

National media team

Video

Social media

Other input (2 mins)

Key decisions (yes/no)

Press conferences

- State

- National

Media release

Video's

Other (audio news release, video news release, live crosses, etc)

Regards,

Mick

Centre Director National Operations Centre

Post Event Review Management(PERM)


AFTER

• What type of events?

• High Impact on the community (not just intensity)

• High Impact on our real-time operations (Bureau’s ability to deliver services/surge)

o Service performance o Staff fatigue and skillso Ability to surge

• Other non-hazard related service/performance factors• Embed hazard impact assessment into our Post Event Review Management (PERM) procedures.

WarningsTropical Cyclone Marcus

PERM – Impact assessmentsTropical Cyclone Marcus

Community Impacts

• 30,000 homes without power in Darwin• 500 fallen power lines• Widespread fallen and uprooted trees• Property damage• Potential contamination of drinking water

Operations Impacts• Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre activated• NT Cyclone staffing plan enacted; seamless hand

over of services to another office• Widespread media interest• Severe Weather Videos produced• Joint press conferences

0 Low 1 Moderate 2 High 3 Extreme 0 Low 1 Moderate 2 High 3 Extreme

PERM – Impact assessmentsTropical Cyclone Marcus

CommunityImpacts

OperationsImpacts

PERM


AFTER

Lessons Register


AFTER

LESSONS REGISTER

THE LESSON - DESCRIPTION LESSON - SOURCE POST EVENT REVIEW/REPORT - LINK KEY RECOMMENDATIONS THEME

What happened? Why did it happen? Use drop down menu to select

whether the lesson came from

a Post Event Review or an

annual/routine report

Weblink or pathway to shared drive where

Post Event Review or Routine Report can be

found

Required to turn issues/lessons

identified into lessons learnt

Use drop down menu to

select which theme the

recommendation belongs to

Actions

ACTION PRIORITYACCOUNTABLITY -

WHO NOTES DEADLINE

EXTERNAL

CONSULTATIO

N REQUIRED?

STATUS

If the action differs from the

recommendation fill in action below.

Otherwise column may be left blank

Assessed using Risk

Analysis template (auto

filled from RISK

ASSESSMENT)

The person or section that

is accountable for the

completion of the action

and for the lesson learnt

If client

consultation is

required due to a

service change,

please select 'yes'

from the drop

down menu below

Use drop down

menu to select

the status of

the action


National Hazard Outlooks

Communication

Staffing

Post Event Review Management

(PERM)

BEFORE DURING AFTER

Learn through Verification –

Improve Forecast

Questions?

Grace Legge, Bureau of Meteorology

Photos: Chris Kent BoM NT Meteorologist @chriskentphotography

Grace LeggeBureau of Meteorology – Extreme Weather Desk

Bureau of Meteorology –Challenges and

changes

Photo: Chris Kent Photography BOM NT

Current Trial

A trial has been ongoing with the Department of Home Affairs Crisis Coordination Centre (CCC), interior ministry with responsibilities for national security, law enforcement, emergency management for the past year.- This has included multiple major events- Feedback has been given by the CCC on the product and the

usefulness of it

Feedback from the CCC

They were asked to rate the NHO product out of 5 for each relating to presentation: • Ease of use• Overall amount of detail• Relevance of weather hazard• How helpful the product was to their

operations

Survey returned an overall score of 3.4/5 with the presentation and overall amount of detail the highest scoring aspects.

Comments from NHO discussion• "Please turn area A from grey

to yellow as winds are increasing from yesterday"

• "We are expecting damaging winds so please add it to the NHO"

• "Please turn A from possible to likely as severe storms are likely tomorrow"

Feedback from the regional forecast centres

• Word document

• Not everyone understand what impact forecasting is

Larger Challenges

• How does one handle fire weather?• What events do we include in such a broad product? Do we

include hazards that only affect certain industries, frost and fog?• Changes to the duration and exposure ratings to better reflect the

hazard and likely impacts

Other Issues

• How do we handle probability of weather that isn't a hazard but increased one?

• How do we look at multi-hazard events?

Probabilities

• Can we have these impacts without an event happening?

• Does forecasting severe weather events make a hazard for operations?

Difference in hazards between Operation and Community

• Does the hazard durations work for all hazards?• Does the exposure really take into impacts?

Current exposure and duration ratings

Next Steps

Going back to the WMO definition:

"A hazard is defined as a hydrometeorological-based, geophysical or human-induced element that poses a level of threat to life, property or the environment. "

Better define "a level of threat" to limit the product to those with significant impact.

If hazard impact level is < two, consider not including hazard if there is no risk of it increasing tier.

Better define the hazards

As those three sections relate to exposure (x,t) than it needs to be normalised to an event.

Heatwaves will always be more than 24 hours but there will be different impacts if one lasts for 3 days or a week.Need it to be as objective as possible.

Normalise exposure and duration dependant on hazard

Change Hazard Probability tables

Risk to the Operations is largely different to Community.- For most events operations

will react if it is possible.- Overall risk is higher as

events cannot be missed due to insufficient staffing.

Change the Operational risk matrix

• Workshop will be created for both PERM and the NHO to discuss potential changes with various departments of the Bureau.

• This will include representatives from each regional forecasting centre.

All changes must be mirrored in PERM

Bigger changes/ challenges

Operationalise the products

• Turn the product into something more user friendly.• Impact tables online and editable• Dates automatically generated• Checks in place to assess that all hazards are on the correct days• Ability to zoom and layer hazards as needed, as well as better see

districts or layer them as needed• Try and automate first assessment calculated by submitting hazard

risk areas to GA API that returns vulnerability and exposure data (population, agriculture) – requires quantitative thresholds for each impact classification (population threshold of low, moderate, high extreme)

• Awareness

• Desire

• Knowledge

• Ability

• Reinforcement

• Better define who owns the products and what happens if there arediscrepancies

Better educate our regional forecasters/ change management with implementation

• Can we use partnerships with various stakeholders and customers to expand each row into its own product

• Could transport has it's own table looking at delays of public transport, traffic delays or road closures

• Feed it back into the NHO- Community creating a more objective forecast

• Some hazards are easier than others!

Could we create tailor made hazard tables?

• V/line and Metro both slow their trains due to track temperatures

• Can we forecast delays for the public?

Transport hazards

Source: www.vline.com.au

• Much harder to find exposure and vulnerabilities

• Dependant on what they're growing, when and where

• No central organisation to partner with• Hazards are much more dependant on

multiple meteorological factors

Agriculture

• Move into a tiered impact based warning service with our State/ Territory Emergency Services.

Move from outlooks into warnings

• The NHO – Operational product will become the centre of our operational Incident management framework.

Bureau restructure

Grace LeggeBureau of Meteorology – Extreme Weather Desk

Questions?Thank you

how does the australian bureau of meteorology assess and

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