How High Can the Commodities Bull

Go?

We are in a commodities bull market

Commodities started rising around 2000 Some commodities were at their lowest levels

in over a century Just about everything has been going up Beginning to get media coverage Many wondering if it's almost over or if this is

just the beginning We may be half-way through; plenty of

opportunities left for investors and speculators

Difference between secular/cyclical trends

Cyclical trends last a few years Ex: Stocks were in a cyclical bear from 2000-2003

and a cyclical bull from 2003-2007 Secular trends (big picture) last two decades

Ex: Stocks have been were in a secular bull market from 1980 to 2000, and have been in a secular bear market from 2000 to the present

Commodities and stocks usually run inverse to one another

Dow 2000 chart

Dow 1980 Chart

Long Term Chart

1970s Commodity Boom

Best comparison to current boom Lots of similarities

Supply-Demand imbalance Inflation War Pessimism

A good guide to what could happen today

S&P 1970s

Corn

Sugar

Gold

Silver

Recap

In the 1970s... The S&P dropped 50% Corn rose 3x Sugar rose 17x Gold rose 23x Silver rose 27x

The Commodities Bull is Not Over

Investors need to keep in mind the long-term, secular trend Don't get scared out by the dips Avoid frequent buying/selling ETFs are great

Traders should buy on the dips and keep enough margin to allow for wide swings Don't let your bullishness get the best of you There will be dips; they are good buying oppt's

Good resources

“Hot Commodities” by Jim Rogers ChartsRus.com: Tons of interesting long-term

charts TimingCharts.com: Best site for futures charts Futures.TradingCharts.com: Intraday quotes

and historical charts